user meeting 15 june 2005 monthly forecasting frederic vitart ecmwf, reading, uk
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Monthly Forecasting
Frederic VitartECMWF, Reading, UK
![Page 2: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Monthly Forecasting System
Real-time forecast:
• Coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations: a 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days every Thursday.
• Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a TL159L40 resolution
• Oceanic component: HOPE (from Max-Planck Institute) with a zonal resolution of 1.4 degrees and 29 vertical levels
• Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every ocean time step (1 hour)
Background statistics:
• 5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 12 years
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Model Changes during the past year
New versions of IFS :
• Cycle 28R2 in June 2004
• Cycle 28R3 in October 2004 (contains a new physic package)
• Cycle 29R1 in April 2005 (contains a new moist boundary layer scheme)
Operational suite (October 2004):
• The frequency of the monthly forecast is once a week instead of once every two weeks.
• Starting date is Thursday instead of Wednesday
• Product dissemination on Fridays
• Hindcast and real-time forecast are archived under different streams (mnfc and mnfh)
• Model climatology and anomalies relative to the model climate are archived
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Performance over the Northern Extratropics
Monthly ForecastPersistence of previous week probabilities
ROC area of probability of 2-meter temperature in upper tercile
Day 12-18 Day 19-32
DJF05DJF04DJF030 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
RO
C a
rea
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
RO
C a
rea
DJF03 DJF04 DJF05
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Verification: Week 10/01/2005-16/01/2005
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 10-01-2005/TO/16-01-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 06-01-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 30-12-2004: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 23-12-2004: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 16-12-2004: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Verification: Week 24/01/2005-30/01/2005
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 24-01-2005/TO/30-01-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 20-01-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 13-01-2005: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 06-01-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 30-12-2004: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Verification: Week 21/02/2005-27/02/2005
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 21-02-2005/TO/27-02-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 17-02-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 10-02-2005: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 03-02-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-01-2005: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Verification: Week 07/03/2005-13/03/2005
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 07-03-2005/TO/13-03-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 03-03-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 24-02-2005: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 17-02-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 10-02-2005: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Verification: Week 21/03/2005-27/03/2005
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 21-03-2005/TO/27-03-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 17-03-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 10-03-2005: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 03-03-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 24-02-2005: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
L
L
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 23 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 18 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 10 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 27 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 20 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 31 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 22 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
L
L
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 2 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 23 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 12UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 18 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 10 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 27 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
13 Januar y 2005 19UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 20 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
5.0m/s - -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Febr uar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 met r e t emper at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 31 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height
- -
14 Januar y 2005 2UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 22 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion
-8
-6
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
9
Monthly Forecast 13/01/2005
Day 5-11 Day 12-18
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (1)End of June :
• Cycle 29R2
• New sea-ice treatment:
Current scheme:
The sea-ice cover is a diagnostic of the ocean model.
There is sea ice if SST is lower than a certain threshold (about -1.7C)
New scheme (Magdalena Balmaseda and Tim Stockdale)
During the first 10 days, sea-ice is persisted from the atmospheric initial conditions.
- After 1 month, we impose climatological sea-ice (from ERA40)
- Between day 10 and month 1, interpolation between persisted sea-ice and climatological sea-ice.
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Example: Sea-ice cover on 1/1/2005
SEA-ICE cover (%)
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
Current Scheme: NEW Scheme:
SEA-ICE cover (%)
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (2)
-Archiving of probabilities:
1) Probability of weekly mean precipitation and temperature anomalies to be
above or below a threshold
2) Terciles, quintiles, 10% and 90% distributions of weekly mean precipitation
and temperature relative to the model climatology. The boundaries will
also be archived.
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (3)
Verification plots on the web site (under development):
- Verification of anomaly maps of 2-meter temperature, Z500, precipitation….
- Some probabilistic scores
- Some deterministic scores
The verification plots will be updated every week
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User Meeting 15 June 2005
Examples of verification
Anomaly maps:
20°N
40°N
60°N
80°N
180°150°W
12
0°W
90
°W6
0°W
30°W 0° 30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°EObserved anomaly: Sun 20050228- Sat 20050306
20°N
40°N
60°N
80°N
180°150°W
120°W
90°W
60°W
30°W 0° 30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°EFC 20050224: Day 5-11
20°N
40°N
60°N
80°N
180°150°W
120°W
90°W
60°W
30°W 0° 30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°EFC 20050210: Day 19-25
20°N
40°N
60°N
80°N
180°150°W
12
0°W
90
°W6
0°W
30°W 0° 30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°EFC 20050217: Day 12-18
20°N
40°N
60°N
80°N
180°150°W
12
0°W
90
°W6
0°W
30°W 0° 30°E
60°E
90°E
120°E
150°EFC 20050203: Day 26-32
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Solid contour at 95% signif icanceShaded areas above 90% signif icanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 21-02-2005/TO/27-02-20052-meter Temperature anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 17-02-2005: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 10-02-2005: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 03-02-2005: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-01-2005: DAY 26-32
<-10deg
-10.. -6
-6.. -3
-3.. -1
-1.. 0
0.. 1
1.. 3
3.. 6
6.. 10
> 10deg
Temperature Z500
![Page 16: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Examples of verification
Examples of probabilistic scores: ROC scores
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit
rat
e
ROC score = 0.663Day 12-18 20041007-20050505
ECMWF Monthly Forecast, 2mtm in upper tercile , Area:Northern Extratropics
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
20041007 TO 20050505WEEK2ROC SCORE : 2-meter temperature in upper tercileECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
<0.1 0.1..0.2 0.2..0.3 0.3..0.4 0.4..0.5 0.5..0.6 0.6..0.7 0.7..0.8 0.8..0.9 > 0.9
![Page 17: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Examples of verification
Example of deterministic scores:
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
An
om
aly
Co
rr. C
oeff
.
Anomaly Correlation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
RM
S e
rro
r (m
)
RMS Error
Ensemble MeanECMWF ensemble Forecasts
31 forecasts N.Hemis
MOFC CLIM
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
An
om
aly
Co
rr. C
oeff
.
Anomaly Correlation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
RM
S e
rro
r (m
)
RMS Error
Ensemble MeanECMWF ensemble Forecasts
31 forecasts N.Hemis
MOFC CLIM
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
An
om
aly
Co
rr. C
oef
f.
Anomaly Correlation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
RM
S e
rro
r (m
)
RMS Error
Ensemble MeanECMWF ensemble Forecasts
31 forecasts N.Hemis
MOFC CLIM
![Page 18: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (4)SYSTEM changes
• Autumn 2005: CY30R1. The resolution of the monthly forecasting system will
change from TL159L40 to TL159L62. The additional vertical levels will be in the
mid-troposphere.
• 2006: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS.
![Page 19: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (5)Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS
Present situation: 2 separate systems
EPS:
Day 0 Day 10
TL255L40 twice a day uncoupled
MOFC:
Day 0 Day 32
TL159L40 once a week
Ocean model
![Page 20: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (6)Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS
End of 2005: 2 separate systems
VAREPS:
Day 0 Day 7
twice a day uncoupled
MOFC:
Day 0 Day 32
TL159L62 once a week
Ocean model
Day 15
TL399L62TL255L62
![Page 21: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (7)Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS
2006: single system
VAREPS:
Day 0 Day 7
twice a day
MOFC:
Day 0 Day 32Ocean model (once a week)
Day 15
TL399L62TL255L62
TL255L62 (*)
Once a week
* To be confirmed
![Page 22: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Future developments (8)SYSTEM changes
2006 : Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS.
• New MARS archiving for this system. For example stream mnfc will become enfo
• Hindcasts will still be produced with the same resolution as the full VAREPS
system. This could also be useful for calibrating medium-range weather forecasts.
![Page 23: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Madden Julian Oscillation Experiments: 15/12/92-31/01/93
ERA40 Analysis:
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Zonal wind anomaly at 850 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
-1
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
U850Velocity Potential 200 hPa
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAYS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 15/12/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
6
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAY
S
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Outgoing Long wave RadiationHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
OLR
![Page 24: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
MJO ExperimentsVelocity Potential correlation
Persisted SSTs Coupled Observed SSTs
Persistence of atmos. initial conditions
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meaneldt
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanel5a
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
30
25
20
15
10
5
0D
AY
S
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanel26
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek7h
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanel26
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek7h
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
![Page 25: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
MJO ExperimentsVelocity Potential correlation
Mixed-layer modelCoupled Mixed-layer model10-meter vertical resolution
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
-0.7
-0.5
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanelio
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek6v
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanel26
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek7h
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
-0.7
-0.5
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanelio
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek6v
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Persistence
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble meanel26
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble Meanek7h
0.4 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 1
![Page 26: User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022070305/55154c2a550346c77d8b63ad/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
User Meeting 15 June 2005
Real-time monthly forecasts (81 cases) Loss of Variance
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Time Lag (Days)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4V
ari
an
ce
PC1 Fcst PC2 Fcst PC1 Analysis PC2 Analysis