users conference 2016 1 - cdn.osisoft.com · –wind / solar power ramp forecast –reliable...

© Copyright 2016 OSIsoft, LLCUSERS CONFERENCE 2016

Presented by

Maintaining Grid Stability while

Integrating Variable Renewable

Energy Sources in Eastern Japan

Monitored by the PI System

Infrastructure

- National R&D Project in Japan -

Nobuyuki Hayasaki

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corp.


Agenda

• About Us -Itochu Techno-Solutions Corporation

• Background -Current power grid situation in Japan

• Challenge -Variable renewable energy integration in Japan

• Solution -How we use the PI System

• Results -Accuracy & Issues

• Next Steps

• Conclusion

3


About Us : Itochu Techno-Solutions Corporation

4

US

Our


About Us : Science & Engineering Systems Div.

5


Background in Japan : Renewable energy Booming

6

(Source: Renewable market trend in Japanese, METI, March 2015)

In Operation

(GW)

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Transition of cumulative

installed capacity of PV

2013 20142012 Fiscal Year

Approved

Under development : +5.0 GW

• Government promotes renewable energy integration after Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.

• We need to balance renewable energy integration with the grid stability.

2012: PV: \40/kWh(≒40cents/kwh), Wind: \22/kWh(≒22cents/kWh)

2015: PV: \27/kWh(≒27cents/kwh), Wind: \22/kWh(≒22cents/kwh)

Due to Feed in Tariff

(FIT) since 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

200

5

200

6

2007

2008

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

An

nu

al(M

W)

Cu

mu

lative

(GW

)

Year

Transition of cumulative installed capacity of wind power

Annual(MW) Cumulative(GW)


【0.30GW】

↑　0.30GW

↓　0.30GW

【0.60GW】

↑　0.60GW

↓　0.60GW

【12.62GW】

↑　0.61GW

↓　4.85GW

【2.40GW】

↑　1.20GW

↓　1.20GW

北海道HOKKAIDO

4.32GW

東北TOHOKU13.09GW

北陸HOKURIKU

5.27GW

沖縄OKINAWA

1.43GW

関西KANSAI26.34GW

九州KYUSHU15.18GW

中国CHUGOKU

10.56GW

四国SHIKOKU5.04GW

中部CHUBU24.28GW

東京TOKYO

52.47GW

直流(DC)

【1.20GW】

→　1.20GW

←　1.20GW

【5.56GW】

→　2.50GW

←　1.92GW

【5.56GW】

↑　1.30GW

↓　1.62GW

【1.40GW】

→　1.40GW

←　1.40GW

【16.66GW】

→　4.05GW

←　2.78GW

【5.56GW】

→　2.53GW

←　0.53GW

交流(AC)

【3.80GW】　Thermal Capacity

→　1.90GW　Operating Capacity

←　1.50GW　Operating Capacity

50Hz60Hz60Hz

Background in Japan : Current situation of power grid

7

High Wind

Potential Areas

Bottlenecks in

interconnections

between

balancing areas

Major

Demand AreaBox value(52.47GW) : Maximum power

forecast for net output of 3days average

Source: OCCTO(2016)

https://www.occto.or.jp/keito/renkeisen/fil

es/01_unyouyouryou_besshi.pdf

Operating Capacity is calculated on

weekday daytime in August 2016

北陸Hokuriku

5.27GW

中部CHUBU

24.28GW

関西KANSAI

26.34GW

中国CHUGOKU

10.56GW

四国SHIKOKU

5.04GW

九州KYUSHU

15.18GW

沖縄OKINAWA

1.43GW


• Primary challenges to the grid at different time-scales:

Variability in VRE generation (seconds - hours)

• VRE generation is strongly influenced by weather

Uncertainty in VRE generation forecast (hours - days)

• Large ramping events are of primary concern.

Uneven geological resource availability (years-into-future)

• may be far from load-centers, and require new/upgrading

regulating/operating reserves and transmission capacity.

Ryuya Tanabe, Outline of National Project on Research and Development of Simulation and Analytical tools for Renewable Integration (Sari),

IEA WIND Task 25 18th Research Meeting

Challenge -Variable Renewable Energy Integration in Japan


Solution -Variable Renewable Energy Integration in Japan

1. R&D Project on Grid Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) has started since Aug. 2014.

2. Develop the technologies of Forecasting, Control/Curtailment, Power system operations for the integration of variable renewable energy.

3. Use a Real-time data infrastructure using the PI system to store the VRE data such as Wind, PV power output, SCADA*, and wide-area weather data in eastern Japan.

9

*SCADA:

Supervisory Control

And Data Acquisition


Solution -R&D Project on Grid Integration of Variable Renewable Energy

• Project name

– R&D Project on Grid Integration of Variable Renewable Energy : Mitigation Technologies

on Output Fluctuations of Renewable Energy Generations in Power Grid

• Project period

– FY2014～FY2018 (5years)

• Project organization

– 14 groups (Universities, Foundations, Companies) commissioned by NEDO which

promotes technology development for renewable energy in Japan.

http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/

introducing_index.html





3. Use a Real-time data infrastructure using the PI system to store the VRE data such as Wind, PV power output, SCADA, and wide-area weather data in eastern Japan.

11

*SCADA:

Supervisory Control



1: Optimization by

VRE Forecast

Transmission grid

2: Optimization by

Control for VRE

Power System Operation(demand/supply and frequency

adjustment)

Adjustment of

large generators

and batteries

3. Optimization by Operation of

thermal power , battery and etc.

Variable output

of Wind power

Variable output

of PV power

Variable output

of the other RE

Solution -Develop the techniques of Forecasting, Control, Power system operations

Forecast of variable renewable energies, Control of power output fluctuation with combination of

energy storage, and Operation adjustment of large scale generators and batteries will optimize

power system operation





3. Use a Real-time data infrastructure using the PI System to store the VRE data such as Wind, PV power output, SCADA*, and wide-area weather data in eastern Japan.

13

*SCADA:

Supervisory Control



Solution –Real-time data infrastructure using the PI System

• Collected real-time data in Eastern Japan

– Monitoring Network for Wind Farm more than 40 sites

• Substation for wind farm

– MW and MVAR values

• SCADA data for wind turbine

– Power output, Nacelle wind speed, …etc

• Met Mast / Wind Lidar

– Wind Speed, Wind direction, Temperature, Pressure, Humidity

– Monitoring Network for Wide Area Weather

• Weather data network for 115 stations

• Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data for 400 stations

– Wind Speed / Direction, Temperature, Pressure, Humidity

• Currently use over 40,000 tags

14


SCADA

Transmission

System

Met Mast(60m Height)

Met

Station

Wind Lidar

(WindCube)

Wind Farms

In Eastern Japan



Surface Weather

Stations in Eastern

Japan

Temperature Wind Speed Wind Direction



ITOCHU

Techno-Solutions Corp.

Data Center

17

SCADA

Sub

Station

Met Mast,

LIDAR

Mo

nito

rin

g

Ne

two

rk fo

r

Wid

e W

ea

the

r Surface Met

(Private

Business)

Mo

nito

rin

g

Ne

two

rk fo

r

Win

d F

arm

Surface Met

(Japan Met

Agency)

PI

System

IoT

Cloud

System

Institute of Industrial Science,

University of Tokyo

Data Center

PI

System

Internet

VPN

Private

Line(20MBPS)

Visualize

Analyze

Integration

of Multiple

Forecasts

• Store long-term Data

• Visualize by PI ProcessBook, PI Coresight

• Analyze by PI DataLink

Researcher

Engineer

Grid Operator

Internet

VPN

Forecast

System

PI to PI

・・・Forecast 1

・・・Forecast N

Data aggregation

Data relay

1 N


Real-time data


Solution –PI System Architecture

• ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corp uses:– PI Asset Framework (AF) to manage data

– PI Interface for Universal File and Stream Data (UFL), to store power &

meteorological data

– Notifications to inform us about ramp of wind power output on the grid

– PI ProcessBook for real-time monitoring

– PI DataLink to use data in Microsoft Excel (Engineering analysis)

– OSIsoft vCampus (To develop ITOCHU needs)

• ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corp upgraded PI Server 2015

18


Solution –Forecast Wind Power (PI ProcessBook on PI Coresight)

19

Wind power

Forecast

(Future Data)

Actual Data

Confidence

interval 95%

Ramp Alert


Solution –Visualize by PI Coresight

20


Solution –Analyze by PI DataLink

21


Solution –PI AF architecture

• PI AF architecture is very important

for us to work effectively:

– Enable to create templates

– Allow rollup calculations

– Create graphical templates in

PI ProcessBook

22

Apply

Template

rollup


Results –Accuracy of current wind power forecast

23

JAPAN(Tohoku)

442MW,

MAE=7.5%

CAISO

ERCOT

SPAIN Germany

Source： JOHN ZACK, WIND PLANT

FORECASTING:STATUS AND

CHALLENGES, California Wind Energy

Collaborative Forum, April 5, 2011

• Japanese wind

power forecast

accuracy is not so

bad.

• However, large

forecast issues

remain when wind

power output ramps.


Results –Issue of current wind power forecast

24

11/27 9:00

11/27 3:00

Large forecast error happens when low pressure system passes

Wind power ramp forecast needs to be improved


Next Steps

25

1: Optimization by

VRE Forecast

Transmission grid

2: Optimization by

Control for VRE

Power System Operation(demand/supply and frequency

adjustment)

Adjustment of

large generators

and batteries

3. Optimization by Operation of

thermal power , battery and etc.

Variable output

of Wind power

Variable output

of PV power

Variable output

of the other RE

Optimization by forecast, control, and operation in power system will be

promoted in order to integrate massive renewable energy sources in Japan.


Next Steps

26

ITOCHU

Value

PI system

Renewable energy

integration

• IoT Cloud system

• Advanced Analysis

• Power Forecast

• Integrated database

‒ Past

‒ Real Time

‒ Future

For TSO, RE IPP

(Wind, Solar,...,etc)

• Improve Data

Availability

• Improve Productivity

• Improve Profitability

We will expand our business by combining our technologies

and PI System infrastructure in the electric power system

reform.


Conclusion

27

• Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources are integrated rapidly into power grids

in Japan.

• In order to maintain power grid stability, we will take advantage of massive IoT

data such as power output, SCADA, wide-area weather to improve VRE

generation forecast technology. Ramp forecasting technologies are under

development.

– Wind / Solar power ramp forecast

– Reliable confidence interval for forecast

• PI Infrastructure is an essential platform to take advantage of massive IoT data.

– Integrated database for big data

– Real time monitoring⇒Analysis⇒Forecast


Contact Information

Nobuyuki Hayasaki

[email protected]

General Manager

ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corp.

2828


Questions

Please wait for the

microphone before asking

your questions

Please remember to…

Complete the Online Survey

for this session

State your

name & company

29

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Thank You

users conference 2016 1 - cdn.osisoft.com · –wind / solar power ramp forecast –reliable...

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