USGS Global Change ScienceNational Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional HubSonya JonesUSGS Southeast Area

NIDIS Planning MeetingJuly 21-22, 2009Chapel Hill, NC

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

http://nccw.usgs.gov/

USGS Global Change Science Development

• National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC): A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities in natural systems

• Climate Effects Network: A vision for a national climate early-warning system

• Carbon Sequestration: Geological and biological approaches to understanding the fluxes, sequestration and impacts on human and natural systems

Partner Listening Sessions

• National Meeting – December 2008• North American Wildlife and Natural

Resources Conference – March 2009• Eastern Region – May 2009• Central Region – June 2009• Western Region – June 2009• National Meeting – July 2009

National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

• A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities• Forecasts fish & wildlife change through:

– Down-scaled climate models and derivative products– Integration with ecological & habitat models– Defining population and habitat responses at appropriate scales– Developing response options in an adaptive monitoring framework

• Joint decision-making with Federal, State and NGO communities

• National and regional focus on adaptation/impacts

RISA

NEON

USDA

• Down-scaling of GCMs

• Regional Response - Eco & Population Models

• Forecasting

Regional Climate Science Hubs

• GIS & Models

• Species/habitat assessment

• Adaptive Mgmt monitoring

• Feedback

• Carbon Cycling (?)

Adaptive Application Partnerships

• National Syntheses

• Standardized Approaches

• New Science & Methodologies

• Communication

NCCWSC Oversight

Boards

National Partnerships

NPNNASA

• Science• Decision-making

CEN

National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center

NCCWSC Priorities• Analyses of climate information and derivative products• Forecasts of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in

response to climate change• Integration of physical climate information with ecological and

habitat response models • Standardized approaches to facilitate linking existing monitoring

to climate models and ecological and biological response models

• Communication - sharing information across Regional Hubs and making science products available to natural resource managers

NCCWSC APPROACH

Global Climate ModelDownscaling Ecosystem Response

&Forecasting Regional Habitat &

Population Response

Forecasting Habitat & Species

ResponseFood

HabitatRecruitment

Adaptive Management & MonitoringSite Specific Species or Populations Response

Regional Climate Science Hub

Adaptive Application Partnerships

Science-based

Management-based

NCCWSC National Office

Regional Climate Science Hubs

• Cover the Nation (7or 8)• Science-based• University hosted• Ecological & political boundaries• Self-generating

– Covering multiple AAP’s/LCC’s

Partnerships are key

Regional Climate Science Hubs• Downscaled climate information – linked with

ecological/biological response models at scales that help managers develop effective adaptive management strategies

• Regional response modeling and forecasting of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change

• Derivative products - that link biological and ecological response variables with physical forcing factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation)

• Modeling possible response scenarios for managers to use in an adaptive management framework

Adaptive Application Partnerships• Four to six per Hub• Landscape/geography-based• Partnership-led• Regional Climate Science Hub Outputs:

– Combination of expression w/other landscape drivers– Geographic expression of ecological & habitat nodes

from RCSH’s at management scales– Priority management goals and time frames

Adaptive Application Partnerships

• USGS Commitments– Research & Modeling– Adaptive response

forecasts including other drivers

– Monitoring protocols

• USGS Benefits– Strengthening RCSH output– Builds traditional strengths– Partners with other

expertise– Leverages resources– Feeds CEN & other

monitoring needs

SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Demonstration project: integrates climate change

science with habitat and species response models to assess impacts on avian and aquatic species

• Cast predictive models calibrated from data gathered during recent decades• NOAA Climate data• Remote sensing data• USGS - BBS & MAPS data• Downscaled climate models• Watershed modeling

SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Regional probabilistic projections of climate change

to support all projects• Regional probabilistic projections of landuse change

to support all projects• Pilot Projects

– Ecological models to project impacts to avian and aquatic species (SAMBI and ACF basin)

– Sea-level rise – impacts on coastal fish and wildlife (AL & MS)

– Integrate terrestrial and aquatic habitat conservation

SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Staffing

– Science lead/coordinator– climate modeler– Ecological/habitat modeler– data management/support

• Location– University TBD after RFI

• Products– Regional climate models– Regional land use change

models– Regional ecological models– Data management

• Integration with AAPs– Ecoregionally based teams

responsible for finer scale biological planning and conservation design