USGS & WFRC Science Directions

• Ecosystems• Climate change• Water availability• Energy• Invasive species• Wildlife health and disease• Threatened and

endangered species

2

CC33

The Pacific Northwest Climate Change Collaboration (C3)

3

Climate Science Centers (CSCs) Delivering Fundamental Climate-Impact Science to

Resource Managers on a Regional Basis

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)On-the-Ground Applied Science and Adaptive

Management

National Climate Change and Wildlife Center at USGS HQ & Eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs)

Provide scientific information, tools and techniques for land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers to adapt to climate and ecologically-driven responses at regional-to-local scales.

Deliver basic climate-change-impact science to Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

Prioritize fundamental science, data and decision-support activities to meet the needs of the LCCs.

Work with the LCCs to develop adaptive management and other decision-support tools for managers.

Twenty-One Nationwide, functioning within a specific landscape as part of a national and international network

Focus on-the-ground strategic conservation & adaptive management efforts at the landscape level.

Management-science partnerships that inform integrated resource-management

Link science and conservation delivery

LCCs are cooperatives, formed and directed by land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers and other stakeholders.

Steering committees will include representatives from governmental entities (federal, state, tribal and local), as well as non-governmental organizations.

On the Landscape: CSCs & LCCs

Responding to Climate Variability and Change:Trans-boundary Assessment & Services in the CRB

Objective

Develop and test a practical, integrated approach

to organizing and collecting climate change

information and science to support climate

related decision making at both regional and

local scales

Decision Analysis: What is it?

• A set of tools for structuring and analyzing complex decision problems

• An approach and process for making logical, reproducible, and defensible decisions in the face of:– Technical complexity

– Uncertainty

– Multiple, competing objectives

• A multi-disciplinary field of study drawing from statistics, economics, operations research, management science, psychology…

Numerous structured decision making “tools” exist

Examples in use within the USGS include:

– Joint Fact Finding (JFF)

– Stakeholder Analysis (SA)

– Decision Support Systems (DSS)

– Adaptive Management

DA has similarities with all these approaches, but some key differences– More quantitative than JFF

– More decision-focused than SA

– More process- focused than DSS

– More comprehensive than AM

Decision Analysis at the USGS

DA provides (at least) 3 key benefits

– Multi-discipline integration: Acts as an integrating tool, to help bring together the varied research and researchers within the climate change community (and the broader technical community)

– Information value: Helps to locate and/or highlight areas where significant gaps in data or knowledge limit understanding of the full nature of the issue being considered

– Link to end-users: Provides a tangible and explicit link between science and the needs of customers and end-users of the science and data.

aka Research to Operations (R2O) = Integrated Approach to Global Climate Change

WFRC, Columbia River Research LaboratoryNOAA – NCDC, Western Region Climate Services

Natural Resources

Social

Economic Demands

Tribal Culture

PopulationGrowth

Physical Biological

Recreation

Agriculture

Partners:•Federal, State, and Local Agencies•Universities•Tribes•Great Northern LCC, CSCs

Stakeholders:•Agriculture, Landowners, Local Recreation•Tribes: Yakama, Colville, Umatilla•Local Officials

Habitat Physical Population Community

Decision Support: Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects

Social & Economic Analyses

Bioenergetics

•Idaho Falls, ID (USGS, Science Apps., Climate Change) - $ •Tacoma, WA (USGS Water Resources) - Physical models•Yakima, WA (BOR) - Water management (RiverWare)•CRRL - Habitat criteria, GIS, Decision Support Tools•CRRL – Bioenergetics•CRRL – Fish population analyses•Ft Collins, CO (USGS) — Sociologist & Economist

Habitat AquaticPhysical Population Community

Bioenergetics

Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effectsin the Yakima River Basin

Socioeconomic analyses

Change Scenarios

Early2020-2030

Base1988 -2006

Mid20402050

WatershedModel

RiverWare

TemperatureModel

HydrodynamicModel

GISModelingHabitat maps

Habitat DSS

Bioenergetics Model (Growth)

Salmon Survival Model(Population)

Interactions(Community)

SocioeconomicAnalyses

Linking Physical, Biological, Social & Economic

• Jan. 2010 – Methow CC Team• ~20 researchers/managers

• March 16-18, 2010 • DA Stakeholders Workshop• Developed Conceptual Model for the Methow

• Oct 2010• data compiled, modeling approach defined

• February 2011 •DA Stakeholders

Pilot project: Methow River Basin

Columbia Basin R2O Workgroup[20+ Fed (US & Canada), State, Tribal & NGOs]

Why is R2O Working?

•Strong Multi-Disciplinary Approach

•Integrates Research at International, Regional, & Local levels

•Collaborative Research with Multiple Local Agencies

•High Stakeholder Involvement•Stakeholders’ Workshops•Online Decision Support Tools

•Decision Analysis• Conceptual Models

Why USGS?• Federal mission, experience/expertise,

credibility, and multidisciplinary capability

• Significant NW presence—5 science centers, 3 Coop units, 2 Geology laboratories

• Expertise in biologic, cartographic/geographic, geologic, and hydrologic sciences

• Decades of scientific studies in the Basin, e.g., stream-gauging stations, salmonid research

Next Steps

•Continue on-the-ground science in the Methow

•Cross-Case comparison of studies in Columbia River Basin

•Select additional sites for monitoring

•Develop long-term anchor location

•Long-Term monitoring, paired with answering specific questions