using analytics and technology accelerators to help first ... · using analytics and technology...
TRANSCRIPT
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Using Analytics and Technology Accelerators to
Help First RespondersDr. Dan Maxwell, KaDSci, LLC
&Mr. David Ihrie, Virginia Center for Innovative Technology
Acknowledgement: This research effort was supported by DHS S&T First Responders’ Group under contract # HSHQDC-17-C-B0023
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• Some Background
• The Program
• Project Selection Methodology
• Testing Approach & Results
• Next Steps
Overview
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• There is an omnipresent desire to improve First Responder capabilities whenever and where ever possible.
• The DHS S&T First Responders’ Group(FRG) leads this effort for the Federal Government
• Continually emerging IoT information technologies were identified by the FRG as having high potential to contribute to First Responder Safety
• IoT technologies a rapidly growing set of technologies and multi-billion dollar market
• The IoT marketplace is different from the traditional sources of improvement to first responder safety. E.g.:• Insurance Industry• Building / Construction Industry
Background
Solution: Look for Technology Innovators
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Traditional SBIR / STTR efforts were
not achieving First Responder
market penetration
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• Smart City IoT Innovation (Sciti) Program • Sponsored by DHS S&T- First Responders’ Group• Executed by the Virginia Center for Innovative Technology• Supported by:
• TechNexus• Smart City Works• KaDSci, LLC
• The goal of the program is to seek out, develop, and bring innovative IoT technologies that improve first responder capability to market.
• By:• Working with First Responders• Aligning with larger market opportunities• Seeking out Innovators• Planting & fertilizing seeds
The Sciti (pronounced “City”) Program
Technology Accelerators
Analytics Company
Technology innovators are usually found in small startups
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The Sciti Process
Advertise Broadly
ScreenApplicants
Downselect
Detailed Assessment
Fund ?
No Thank you
No Thank you
DevelopPrototype
TestFundMore
?
No Thank you
Refine &Go to Market
The Program Is Here
Operations Research Contributed Here
Operations ResearchContributed Here
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• The challenge – How to select the winners – Knowing:• Most Startups fail
• Success depends on much more than the “idea”
• Improving First Responder Capability will require technologies to interoperate once deployed.
• The solution:• Cast a very broad net
• Use a proven, disciplined selection method
• Require interoperability from the very beginning
• Make the performers demonstrate interoperability early and often
Project Selection
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• Widely Publicized (https://www.cit.org/SCITI/)• Technology Accelerator Circles• Universities• Relevant Professional Societies
• Easy Application Process• One Page• One Phone Call Screening
• Received over 130 applications in four weeks
• Down selected applications to approximately 40 for detailed review (March 2018)
Casting a Broad Net
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Web Based Application
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• Created three pools of complimentary technology types• Navigation and sensors (mobile – emphasizing indoor navigation)
• Indoor sensors (static – innovative applications of emerging IoT for Smart Cities)
• Smart Hub (Infrastructure to facilitate interoperability)
• Required a standard submission packet, tailored to technology
• Applied a decision analytic model (Influence Diagram) designed for technology startup investment analysis.
• Looked across three dimensions (Value Proposition, Business Execution, Exit Potential)
• Twenty self evaluation questions for proposers
• Twenty three evaluation questions for evaluators (“investors”)
• Ranked Proposals in each Pool based on the evaluations
• Selected 13 Phase One Projects (April 2018)
Disciplined Process
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Executed using a Commercial PlatformCalled “EXOGENiUS”
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Assessment Data Collection Tool
Additive Utility Function – Three Objectives
Five categories of questions
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Evaluation QuestionsBackground & Structure
Company Details / Pitch
Well structured questionsDesigned to pass a clarity test(as much as possible)
• Questions and underlying model developed over 5 years• Sources include
• Industry data• Expert Judgment
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The Underlying Assessment ModelQuestions
TeamInfrastructure
Finance
OfferingMarket
UnBBayes – Open Source Bayes Net EngineObjective function calculated in Java
Copyright 2016: ExoGenius, LLC11
ModestConfusion Matrix Allows for human judgmental error
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Apply OR “Soft Skills”
See Differences in Overall Score
Evaluators Agree
Evaluators Disagree
Collaborate and reconcile differences
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Model Effectiveness (V&V)
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.0
00
.01
0.0
20
.03
0.0
40
.05
Density of Overall Scores in Experiment
N = 36 Bandwidth = 6.888
De
nsity
FailedReal Exits
High Real Exits
Medium Real Exits
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0.0
00
0.0
05
0.0
10
0.0
15
0.0
20
Density of Exit Scores in Experiment
N = 7 Bandwidth = 9.102
De
nsity
FailedReal Exits
High Real Exits
Medium Real Exits
Clinical Trial Results
82%accuracy in identifying failed start-ups
77%accuracy in identifying a “medium” exit
41%accuracy in identifying “large” exits
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UAV/NAV
Body Worn Sensors
In Building
CommsHub
Sensor Hub
FirstNet(future)
In-Building Sensors
Smart Hub
PlatformSensors
Nav
ExistingInfrastructure
Building Maps
Multi-Vendor Demo…. OftenMeasure Results Coordinate with Standards Organizations
The Focus Areas
Track First Responder Health
Printable DronesPlug and Play C2
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Companies Selected
• Smarthub• Zello
• Coolfire
• Excession
• Command Wear
• UAV / Navigation• Airgility
• Third Insight
• U. Cincinatti (SUAVE)
• Ecodomus
• Indoor Sensors (IoT)• Known Quantity Sensors
• Wireless System Solutions
• University of Dayton
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Testing Approach
• Multi-Stage• Developmental Test & Evaluation (DTE): October 2018 (Complete)
• Operational Test & Evaluation (OTE): Late Spring 2019
• Field Testing: Winter 2019/2020
• Designed to become more challenging over time• Reduced set up time
• Increased scenario / vignette complexity
• Increased requirement for “automated” interoperability
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DTE Venue
Texas A&M Engineering Extension’s“Disaster City”
Two Buildings
1. Partially destroyed Movie Theater2. Office / Classroom Building
Key Personnel1. First Responders2. S&T Expertise from Teex3. DHS S&T Staff4. Sciti Core Team
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DTE Event Overview
Eight Vignette’s
Increasing complexity
Standard Process for each Vignette
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The Follow On Decision
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Next Steps
• Award Phase II Contracts to high performing Companies
• Prepare for Operational Testing
• Assist Companies:• In correcting weaknesses ID’d in EXOGENiUS evaluation
• Getting Market awareness / traction as they are ready
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Questions?Comments!
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• Berea, A. & Maxwell D. (2017) A Bayesian Model for Investment Decisions In Early Ventures, in Bayesian Inference, Tejedor, J. ed. InTechopen publishing, London.
• Smart Cities in Europe:Open Data in a Smart Mobility Context (2014), Sashinskaya, M., Amazon, London.
• Pine, J. (2007) Technology in Emergency Management, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
References
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Technologies – Some Pictures
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