using (free!) appannie data to optimize your next game | eric seufert

Using (Free!) AppAnnie Data to Optimize Your Next

GameEric Benjamin Seufert

Heracles

Filippo De Rose

reword title to fit one line and fix grammar - maybe, vetting a game: three key points

Filippo De Rose

this is from 2014 - is the major category leader, games? or even the "other" slice? i have never been a fan of these just because 1721 owners is not really statistically significant for the US especially if they are not from the coasts ;)

Filippo De Rose

they are all major apps - any game examples for this audience?

WHO AM I?

Partner,Heracles

Owner,Mobile Dev Memo

Author,Freemium Economics

Filippo De Rose

great stuff speak to the small guys but tell them you worked for big game companies as well

YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

• MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;


Malachi Rose

I'm not sure the first point directly answers your question. Also, the subsequent slides tend to repeat similar things that people already know (i.e. everyone knows it's competitive, so why do research to show that?). Might be an opportunity to cut back and replace with a point that someone might not realize.

Filippo De Rose

whats the message here? it's actually positive rather than talking about a saturated marketplace, people use their phones and apps more

Filippo De Rose

this is good news again isnt it? device penetration excellent which makes distribution great but the original point was a competitive marketplace - of course you back this up with what you are saying whatever that maybe but what I do with screen shot slides is at least add a title to guide the reader - make sense?

US MOBILE AD SPEND:

2015: $32BN2016: $44BN2017: $53BN2018: $61BN2019: $69BN2020: $77BN

Filippo De Rose

good point and I think I know where you are going with this - just one point for the smart reader here (I am not smart! :) ) - while the spending is increasing the number of properties where you can spend on also is - sure demand will always outweigh supply which is why prices increase but supply is infact increasing as well (publishers, devices, etc.)


• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR 2) HAVE MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;


Malachi Rose

Points #1 and 2 are clearer now. #2 is essentially just "competitors are difficult to dethrone". They are entrenched by competitive advantage. #1 is "people aren't downloading NEW apps". #2 needs a grammar correction by removing the "1)" or adding "2)"


• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY WELL OR HAS MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;

• MAKING GAMES IS EXPENSIVE. IF YOU DEVELOP & RELEASE THE WRONG GAME, MASSIVE LOSS.


Malachi Rose

The 3rd point is really THE point of the research. How do you derisk a game launch by researching competitive data? That's more what people came to see. Consider summarizing the prior two points into one slide if you feel it is relevant to proving the point.

Filippo De Rose

making games is expensive - RUNNING games is even more expensive - free to play gaming as a service - if you want to add more color to this slide

HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:


ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?


ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?


ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?


ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?


ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL? 5. WILL THEY RESPOND TO THIS GAME’S ADS?


Malachi Rose

#5 might be better stated as "Is marketing to this audience economically viable?"

Filippo De Rose

do they have disposable income and a willingness to spend it. Would be nice to have number 5 on one line with a bit of rewording

THE SOONER YOU CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THE LESS RISK YOU BEAR!


DEVELOPMENT CYCLE

CONCEPT STAGE

SOFT LAUNCH

GLOBAL LAUNCH

$ $$ $$$

VETTING A GAME: THREE OPTIONS

RISK / SUNK DEVELOPMENT COSTS

WHAT DOES AN OPPORTUNITY LOOK LIKE?

TOP

GRO

SSIN

G CH

ART

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA

SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION

SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION

MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION

BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTO

P GR

OSS

ING

CHAR

T

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA




Massive developer with huge balance sheet

TOP

GRO

SSIN

G CH

ART

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA






P GR

OSS

ING

CHAR

T

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA



MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITIONLarge developer, usually operating big portfolio


TOP

GRO

SSIN

G CH

ART

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA






P GR

OSS

ING

CHAR

T

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA




Developer successfully scaling viable game


Large developer, usually operating big portfolio

TOP

GRO

SSIN

G CH

ART

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA






P GR

OSS

ING

CHAR

T

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA




Small developer with great game




TOP

GRO

SSIN

G CH

ART

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA






P GR

OSS

ING

CHAR

T

100

50

20

“BASIC” UA



MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITIONDeveloper state over time. What is max

potential?




Small developer with great game

Filippo De Rose

this is great and there are different ways to present this but while you have the big company experience I worked for suckers and I would say this top 400 and above makes north of $5k a day (iOS only) so i would extend the scale to below 100 and basic UA I would call super laser focused UA but I dont know if you are trying to say app annie data is relevant below top 100...

FILLING IN THE MATRIXCould fill it in by hand based on intuition...

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL

FILLING IN THE MATRIXCould fill it in by hand based on intuition...

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL

FILLING IN THE MATRIX...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:


TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are

popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes;


TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are

popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking for games with long lifetimes;

• Very likely to focus on one point in time, when in reality we want to see the app’s trend in grossing (viability = ability to reinvest into marketing).


A BETTER APPROACH

A BETTER APPROACH

USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES, SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.


OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:

A BETTER APPROACH


OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;

A BETTER APPROACH


OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN

AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!);

A BETTER APPROACH


OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN

AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10 GROSSING!);3.ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN GROSSING CHART.

A BETTER APPROACH

CAN BE TAKEN FROM FREE APP ANNIE ACCOUNT (EITHER WRITE A SCRIPT OR HIRE AN INTERN):• 70mb JSON file, 365 days of Top 100 charts;• Number of apps in Top 100 Grossing (US / iPhone) in

past 365 days: 355• Number of excluded developers: 56• Apps classified as representing “opportunities”: 33

THE DATA

SCORING APPROACH:• Use app descriptions to classify M / F (-10 to 10);• Use app icons and screenshots to classify mass / niche

appeal;

THE DATA

FILLING IN THE MATRIXHeat map based on results of analysis

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL

Darkness (color) = grossing trajectory (simple linear regression of grossing values, controlling for # of rankings and r2);

Size = density of titles.

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL

FILLING IN THE MATRIXHeat map based on results of analysis

WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST

Rank Position(US / iPhone)Top GrossingLast 365 Days

Malachi Rose

What are these data points? Needs a legend or something

PEAK GAMES• No games in the Top 20;• 6-person UA team (as per LinkedIn);

Didn’t get into Grossing position from brute-force marketing but rather appeal + viable unit economics


Filippo De Rose

I am less smart than Malachi ;) - I dont get how we got from 33 opportunities to toy blast and while I agree with Malachi, very interesting approach for sure but what are the optimizations (as per the title of the prezo)? Clone Toy Blast? I am sure you will back this up with lots of things to say around the subject of optimizing but an extra slide or two wont hurt I think. Also, thinking about it more this is a VERY interesting prezo for publishers and investors to create a funnel of opportunities - what about developers, how can they use this to optimize their next development?

Malachi Rose

I feel like you have me hooked right at this point and then it suddenly ends. It would be great to see what we're supposed to do once we have these data points you just taught people how to capture. i.e. Now that we found Toy Blast, we can now gain X, Y, and Z intel from them.

Eric Seufert

what are you supposed to do? hire me :)

MALE FEMALE

MASS APPEAL

NICHE APPEAL


IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:

TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50 GROSSING GAME.

IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;


IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;• Invite friends;


IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I KNOW THEY CAN:• Click ads;• Invite friends;• Spend money.


Malachi Rose

Potential rephrasing suggestion to:- Grow the game at reasonable eCPI levels- Monetize the audience with high enough LTV

UP AND TO THE RIGHT

CAUTIONARY TALES

BIG CELEBRITY CO-BRAND

KIDS’ SHOW IP LICENSE

MegaBigDeveloperCo’s New Brand Launch

WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK?

1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY


1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITYa) Which games are achieving grossing positions

without financing marketing from other Top 20 titles? Which audience are they targeting?




2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT




2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENTa) Does our game concept capably reach that

audience? Will they click on ads?


“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

“If you know YOUR AUDIENCE and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred LAUNCHES. If you know yourself but not YOUR AUDIENCE, for every RANK gained you will also suffer CPI > LTV. If you know neither YOUR AUDIENCE nor yourself, you will LOSE MONEY in every LAUNCH.”

Malachi Rose

Extra points if you can find a wise wizard or sage piece of clip art here. Double points if you photoshop your head on Yoda's body.

[email protected]@eric_seufert

hrcls.comobiledevmemo.com

THANKS!

using (free!) appannie data to optimize your next game | eric seufert

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