using sas predictive modeling to investigate the asthma’s patient future hospitalization risk....
TRANSCRIPT
Using SAS Predictive Modeling to Investigate the Asthma’s Patient
Future hospitalization Risk.Yehia H. Khalil, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY,US
presented by:
XxxxxxxDSCI 5240
Aim
• Develop a predictive model to forecast future Asthma hospitalization
Asthma
• A chronic inflammatory disorder of the airways
• 21 million Americans diagnosed
• Hospitalization rate growing (more than a million cases a year)
• Costs for Asthma: $14 billion
Predictive modeling
• Ability to incorporate any type of variable into analysis
• Dynamic; can easily accommodate any information to adjust model
SAS SEMMA methodology
• Sample
• Explore
• Modify
• Model
• Access
Source of 2009 Dataset
• Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
• California Health Interview Survey
Survey
• 47,614 adults
• 3,379 adolescents
• 8,945 children
Useful Parameters
• Demographics: age, race, marital status
• Health Behaviors: physical activities, fast food, alcohol consumption
• Health Conditions other than Asthma
• Health Insurance
• Poverty Level
• Emergency preparedness module: medication
• Mental or Emotional Condition
Fig. 4 Analysis Diagram
note:
• 40% training
• 30% testing
• 30% validation
Conclusion
• General health conditions, psychological distress and poverty level
affect future hospitalization risk
• Rx coverage and patient disability influence taking medication
regularly and can increase future hospitalization risk
• It is possible to enhance interventions, programs and alternatives to
avoid future hospitalizations