Fig. 1 Part of a System Dynamics model for Kenyan generation capacity planning (Source: Steel, Katherine Deaton. “Energy system development in Africa: the case of

grid and off-grid power in Kenya”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008)

Fig. 2 Stock and flow diagram of capacity expansion and load dynamics in rural Tanzania (Source: Hartvigsson, Elias. “A System Dynamics Analysis of Cost-Recovery A Study of

Rural Minigrid Utilities in Tanzania”, Chalmers University of Technology, 2015)

Using System Dynamics for Power Systems Development in sub-Saharan Africa

Elias Hartvigsson, Jimmy EhnbergDepartment of Electrical Engineering

Chalmers University of Technology

elias.hartvigsson@chalmers.se

In many sub-Saharan African countries, the origins of power system failures are often associated with unsatisfactory management of the institutions that operate them. Furthermore, a rapid socio-economic development in many sub-Saharan countries creates a growing demand for electricity, which needs to be met by installing new power capacity in order to avoid reliability issues. Therefore, there is a need to integrate classical approaches for analyzing power systems with methodologies that includes socio-economic aspects. System Dynamics can be an appropriate and powerful tool for modelling these challenges when analyzing power systems.

Background and Aim

Potentialities of System Dynamics in electricity demand evaluation

Conclusions

• The operation and management of electric power system in sub-Saharan African countries is affected by high socio-economic complexities, high uncertainty and strong non-linear phenomena;

• System Dynamics is beneficial to study power system problems that relate to either organizational structures or to the socio-technical environment in which power systems operate;

• System Dynamics is an aggregated method (i.e. dealing with aggregated variables): it is suitable to deal with problems that rather have a high complexitythan rely on a high temporal detail, but on the expensive of low level of detail;

• Unlike traditional power system tools, System Dynamics models are able to include non-technical aspects, such as human behavior, national regulations and other relevant features.

System Dynamics is a mathematical-based approach adopted for analyzing and model complex problems that are characterized by feedback processes in social systems. When dealing with rural electrification plans, reliable System Dynamics models can be appropriate to capture the dynamics of electricity demand, which is characterized by high uncertainty, strong non-linear phenomena, complex diffusion mechanisms and time-adjustments of technology perceptions. In particular, System Dynamics based simulations would help to understand how electricity use may impact on the socio-economic aspects of local development and the consequent positive feedback on future electricity demand.

System Dynamics use in rural electrification planning

Limitation of System Dynamics

System Dynamics cannot replace traditional power system tools since it is limited to investigate socio-technical problems that arise due to feedback. Furthermore, System Dynamics concerns modeling of aggregated variables, e.g. electricity demand, but is not relevant for variables with high temporal resolution. System Dynamics is therefore suitable as a tool to support policy makers in developing appropriate energy polices and plans.

Fabio RivaDepartment of EnergyPolitecnico di Milano

fabio.riva@polimi.it