using the industrial internet to move from planned maintenance to predictive health maintenance
TRANSCRIPT
Using the Industrial Internet to Move from Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance
Todays Presenters
Ed Wagner
Vice President,Customers and Solutions
Sentient [email protected]
Lynne Canavan
Program Director, Industrial Internet
Consortium [email protected]
Stephen Steen
Head of Industrial Internet Services,
Sentient [email protected]
m
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Overview
1. Overview of the IIC and the business problem IIC solves
2. Sentient on the Industrial Internet – Prognostics and Making Lifing Assessment for Industrial Equipment
3. Renewables Business Case and Outcomes – Moving from PPM to PHM
4. Questions and Summary
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
The Industrial Internet
Industrial Internet: An internet of things, machines, computers and people…enabling intelligent industrial operations…using advanced data analytics for transformational business outcomes.
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
The Industrial Internet is Leading the Next Economic Revolution
GDP data extracted from the Futurist 2007
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
The Impact of the Industrial Internet
General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025.
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Yet There are Current Roadblocks to Widespread Adoption
The Industrial Internet: A $32 trillion opportunity
Connectivity
Technology
Standards
Research Academia
Systems Integration
Security
Government
Big Data Industries
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
The IIC: Things are coming together
Things are coming together.
Technology
StandardsResearch Academia Systems Integration
Security
Government
Big DataConnectivity Industries
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Industrial Internet Consortium
MissionTo accelerate growth of the Industrial Internet by coordinating ecosystem initiatives to connect and integrate objects with people, processes and data using common architectures, interoperability and open standards that lead to transformational business outcomes.
• Launched in March 2014 by five founding members:
Community. Collaboration. Convergence.
The IIC is an open, neutral “sandbox” where industry, academia and government meet to
collaborate, innovate and enable.
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Our Objectives
• Drive innovation through the creation of new industry use cases and testbeds for real-world applications;
• Enable interoperability by defining and developing the necessary reference architecture and frameworks
• Influence the global development standards process for internet and industrial systems;
• Build confidence around new and innovative approaches to security.• Facilitate open forums to share and exchange real-world ideas,
practices, lessons, and insights;
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
IIC Members
11
IIC Founder Companies www.iiconsortium.org
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Model-based, multi-physics based prognostics computational technologies
and services
Our applications help extend the remaining useful life (RUL) of new and existing
mechanical systems
The newest prognostics health management (PHM) application for
condition-based maintenance (CBM)
Sentient Science is Based on Three Fundamental Capabilities
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
DigitalClone Prognostic ValidationsRotorcraft • NASA Spur Gear Validation• “Large Bearing Company” Bearing Validation• Apache Spiral Bevel Gear Validation• Actuator Pump Cam Bearing Validation• Rotorcraft Super Gear Validation• Blackhawk Spline Fretting Fatigue Validation• Navy Elastomeric Bearing Validation
Wind Turbine• Clipper Wind Turbine GBX Validation• GE 1.5 Wind Turbine GBX Validation
Automotive, Mining & Others• Planetary Gear System Validation• Differential Assembly – Spiral Bevel Validation• Axle Shaft Bearings Validation• Automotive Structural Materials Validation• Reduction/Axle Hypoid Gearing Validation • Mining Sag Mill Gear Validation• Hip Implant Wear Validation
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
DigtialClone®
Nucleation & Propagation
<12 months1-3 years3-5 years+5 years
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Prognostics on the Industrial Internet
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Step 1: Predict the performance and health of your assets, components
and systems from 0-6 years out.
Step 2: Acquire operational data, per fielded asset using
your data system and networks, to tailor service for each individual asset.
Step 3: Confirm prognostic accuracy through advanced
processing, alerts, and reporting tools.
Step 4: Control or optimize assets life through, trade-off
studies, automation, optimization.
Serial Number Model
Part Number
Fleet Model
Sentient - 3rd Generation Life Model
2nd GenerationLife Model
Pro
cess
NO CAPEX$31,0008 weeks
$3.5M CAPEX $323,000
1 year
System Model with 3-5 Top Failure Component Models
Zero$100 in compute time
How to build Life model Cost & Time Value Prop comparison
$20,500Interpreting results difficult
What’s the Business Problem to Solve
• Owner/Operators of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with off warrantee assets– “How long will it really take me to get usable information
regarding my fleet and individual assets?”– How long will these assets produce value?– Will my O&M costs outweigh my financial pro forma?– How can I improve budgeting over 2-5 years?
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
What’s the Business Problem to Solve?
• OEMs of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with their warrantees– How soon can I find out what my real risk is for assets under
warrantee?– What’s the right balance between reconfigure vs. replacement?– What’s my downside of not providing competitive warrantee
services?– How do I budget to service customers today and into the
future?
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Time
Cond
itio
n
Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics
®
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Manage the Fleet Through Financial Optimization
Year: 2014
Today
Year: 2011
3.7%
As-Is Failure Profile
Optimized ConditionReduction in % of Failures
Sentient’s services predict the true baseline and impact of maintenance and operational changes.
Life extension or increased AEP by quantifying the impact of:
- Wind conditions- Lubrication change- Turbine re-rating- Uptower replacements- Remanufacturing
- Automated spare parts management
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
“As Is”
Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, up-tower component replacement, partial de-rating, etc.
“To Be”
Years Until Gearbox FailureYears Until Gearbox Failure
Perc
enta
ge o
f Fle
et F
ailu
re
Perc
enta
ge o
f Fle
et F
ailu
re
Linking Fleet Level Performance to Component Level PerformancePrognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
April 15, 2023
The Financial Impact of Extending Asset Life
Business Impact of Prognostics
• Prognostics cut cost of the Big Data need to maintain assets– Prognostics vs. Diagnostics
• Dramatically Reduces Time to Value for Asset Health Information– Lifing predictions within 3 months– Impact on new customer acquisition for OEM
• Battle for the Aftermarket – will the Operator or the OEM dominate the aftermarket– Reconfiguration (Owners) vs. Redesign (OEMs)– “What-if” simulations creating significantly more
competition
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Sentient Science and the Industrial Internet Wave
General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025.
Industrial InternetUsing the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Challenge for Wind Owner/Operators
Failures higher than originally planned during site development.
Assumptions used: – 100 WTG’s– Loan – 18 yr tenor
Approximately 50% of the total cash to equity comes in the last 5 years 0.5 1 1.5 2
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%
13.00%
13.50%
14.00%
14.50%
15.00%
GBX Failure / WTG
Cash Flow to Equity Years 15-20 20 year IRR
Cash
Flo
w to
Equ
ity,
Yrs
15-
20 ($
,000
)
20 Y
ear I
RR %
Budgeted Actual*Owners are looking to gain control of cost
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Original Pro Forma O&M Plan
Planned Preventative Maintenance (PPM)Pre-planned based on usage or time.
Pro: Almost always ensures proper operation
Con: Expensive and doesn’t address outlier failures
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Cannot predict future risk or solutions to reduce it
Improved O&M - First Attempt
Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)Based on known need for maintenance.
Pro: Reduced cost & improved reliability
Con: High upfront cost, monitoring cost & produces false positives
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Can only predict short term failure, cannot provide solutions to reduce risk
O&M Solution – Path Back to Pro Forma
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)Predicts future failure to plan and mitigate risk.
Benefits: 1. Little to No Monitoring2. Less Sensors3. Remaining Useful Life
(RUL) Extension 4. Risk Mitigation
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Can predict risk years into the future and provide ways to reduce risk through life
extension
DigitalClone LiveAsset Ranking Default Most-at-Risk, Sortable, Filterable …
Asset Map View Risk Level, Interactive, Navigable
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Component Risk Failure risk ranking down to the component level for O&M planning (e.g. uptower vs crane)
DigitalClone Live – Component Level
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Todays Prognostic Reports
1. “As Is” failure rates at the fleet, site, critical component levels– Watch lists, borescopeing, inventory and supply chain
management– Budgeting
2. Gearbox replacement schedules for forecasting3. “To-Be options to extend life:
– Component replacement– Lubrication and additive impact on life– Duty cycle changes to improve life– “What-if” simulations before taking action
You Can “See” What Diagnostics Can Not Yet See
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Asset Prognostics over the Industrial Internet
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Predict initial WTG risk for each individual asset
Acquire operational data
(SCADA, vibration, etc.) from individual
WTG
Confirm the WTG prediction to the
data to ensure it is operating as
predicted
Control and optimize the WTG through re-
rating, up-tower component
replacement
Example Prognostics: ROI Optimization
ROI Optimization All trade-offs based on ROI at the individual asset level/group, maximizing ROI for the fleet.
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
1.5mw WTG – 500 Units
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 $-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$2,000,000.00
$7,000,000.00
$12,000,000.00
$17,000,000.00
$22,000,000.00
$27,000,000.00
$32,000,000.00
$37,000,000.00
$42,000,000.00
$47,000,000.00
$52,000,000.00
AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost
AS-IS Yearly Cost TO-BE Yearly Cost
MW/Hr
Cost
• Through life extension, failures rates can be managed and reduced
• Sentient can provide a significant improvement each year to the failure rates
5 years, $19M savings, 500% ROI
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Business Impact
1. Customer 1: Failure rate reduced by +50%– Customer budgeted and planned or 20+ gearboxes for 2014– Through up-tower replacements, derating, etc. actual failures rates reduced
to <10– $5,000,000 cost reduction in budgeting
2. Customer 2: No failures, correctly predicted next gearbox failure– Was able to plan and prepare for gearbox failure in 2014– 2-5 year PHM budgetary plan
3. Customer 3: Identified and confirmed 8 gearboxes on top 20 list not previously known or expected
– 90% correlation with borescope conducted on top 20 gearboxes for exact component of failure
– Crane and service optimization at $70K per crane service, reduced unplanned maintenance
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Applying Prognostics on the Industrial Internet
Supply Side Optimization
Using Prognostics
Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization
Fleet Process Optimization
O&M Improvements
SMART GRID
1
2
3
4
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
Summary
• Sentient’s DigitalClone Live powers the move to Predictive Health Management (PHM) using the Industrial Internet – DoD, Industrial, Energy Use Cases– Demonstrations on request
• IIC is the central organization for pooling technologies, security, architectures, test beds for learning and leveraging best practices– www.industrialinternetconsortium.org– March 24-26, 2015 - Reston, Virginia USA– July 15-17, 2015 – Niskayuna, New York USA– September 14-17, 2015 – Barcelona, Spain– December 7-14, 2015 - La Jolla, California, USA
Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015