using the regional input-output modeling system (rims ii)
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Using the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II). Ian Mead, Ph.D. C2ER Annual Conference Oklahoma City June 7, 2012. Overview. Recent developments Increased use of RIMS II More diverse set of customers Improved guidance Recent working papers RIMS II User’s Guide. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Using the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS
II)
Ian Mead, Ph.D.C2ER Annual Conference
Oklahoma City
June 7, 2012
www.bea.gov
Overview
▪Recent developments Increased use of RIMS II More diverse set of customers
▪Improved guidance Recent working papers RIMS II User’s Guide
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User’s Guide: Goals
▪Highlight model’s assumptions
▪Encourage: Use of knowledge on local economy Viewing results in relation to other
studies Transparency Robustness checks
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User’s Guide: Development
▪Request customer feedback
▪Review existing impact studies
▪Develop “in-house” analyses
▪Analyze sensitivity of results
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User’s Guide: Features
▪Focus on most important decisions
▪Step-by-step instructions
▪Realistic examples
▪Margin notes
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User’s Guide: Content
▪Relation to other tools
▪Model’s assumptions
▪Basic application
▪Special topics
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Special topics
▪Purchases Retail sales Investment Government
▪Decomposing impacts
▪ Industries Tourism Construction
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Tourism
▪Need detailed industry information
▪Need retail margins
▪Concerns with short-term events
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New advertising campaign
▪Final-demand change $21.5 million in new tourist spending
▪Final-demand industries Lodging, meals, entertainment, etc.
▪Final-demand region Branson, Missouri, µSA
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Tourist purchases
IndustryLocal
purchases
Accommodations 7,000
Food services and drinking places 5,750
Entertainment 4,750
Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, zoos, and parks
3,500
Amusements, gambling and recreation 1,250
Retail trade 3,250
Apparel, leather, and allied products 2,500
Motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, fluids 750
Administrative and support services 375
Other transportation and support activities 375
Total 21,500
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Retail margins
CommodityLocal retail sales
U.S. shareLocal retail
margin
Apparel, leather, and allied products
2,500 0.40 1016
Motor vehicle fuel 750 0.17 128
Total 3,250 …. 1,144
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Earning impacts
IndustryLocal
purchases
Earnings multiplie
r
Earnings impact
Accommodations 7,000 0.3972 2,780
Food services and drinking places 5,750 0.4109 2,363
Entertainment 4,750 .... ....
Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, zoos, and parks
3,500 0.6427 2,249
Amusements, gambling, and recreation
1,250 0.3922 490
Retail trade 1,144 0.4698 538
Apparel, leather, and allied products 1,016 .... ....
Motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, fluids 128 .... ....
Administrative and support services 375 0.4947 186
Other transportation and support activities
375 0.5169 194
Total 19,394 …. 8,800
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Margins
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Construction
▪Recommend bill-of-goods method Broad range of activities Specialized, non-local labor
▪Special considerations Subcontracting: Separate out labor
costs Banking services: About 2 percent of
loan value
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Highway construction
▪Final-demand change $100 million contract
▪Final-demand industry Construction
▪Final-demand region Greensboro, North Carolina, MSA
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Intermediate inputs
Industry Purchases
Stone mining 7,000
Petroleum refineries 10,000
Asphalt paving 7,500
Ready-mix concrete 750
Banking services 2,000
Machinery repair and maintenance
4,000
Total 31,250
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Local supply conditions
IndustryProd-uction
Trucktranspor
t-ation
Whole-
saletrade
Retailtrade
Stone mining Yes Yes No No
Petroleum refineries No No Yes No
Asphalt paving Yes No No No
Ready-mix concrete Yes No No No
Banking services Yes … … …
Machinery repair and maintenance
Yes … … …
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Retail margin: Stone mining
Category U.S. costU.S.
shareLocal
output
Producer value 1,570 0.57 4,020
Truck transportation
1,006 0.37 2,576
Other transportation
114 0.04 ....
Wholesale margin 44 0.02 ....
Retail margin 0 0.00 ....
Purchaser value 2,734 1.00 ....
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Output impact
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IndustryLocal
purchases
Output multiplie
r
Output impact
Stone mining 4,020 1.4524 5,838
Asphalt paving 7,500 1.4390 10,793
Ready-mix concrete 750 1.4915 1,119
Banking services 2,000 1.2899 2,580
Machinery repair and maintenance
4,000 1.5682 6,273
Truck transportation 2,576 1.5590 4,016
Wholesale trade 581 1.3467 783
Subtotal 21,427 .... 31,401
Final demand change .... .... 100,000
Total 21,427 .... 131,401
Gravel
Special fuel
Production cost
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Thank you
Ian Mead, Ph.D.Chief, Regional Product Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Phone: 202-606-9661E-mail: [email protected]
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