utah 2050: alternative futures pam perlich ross reeve utah long term projections program...
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Utah 2050: Alternative Futures
Pam Perlich Ross Reeve
Utah Long Term Projections Program
Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget
May 13, 1999
Contact Information
• Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 [email protected]
• Ross Reeve (801) 538-1545 [email protected]
• Web Site: www.qget.state.ut.us/projections
Regional Scenarios• Recent scenario analysis for Envision Utah has taken our
1997 UPED regional baseline and investigated different small area allocations of this baseline with other methods and models.
• The present study examines alternative demographic and economic paths for the State.
• These regional growth scenarios are a work in progress, not a new official baseline.
• We explore various possible future paths for the State’s population and economy.
Method & Timeframe
• Utilize the State’s long term simulation model: Utah Process Economic and Demographic Projection Model
• Identify high, medium, and low time paths for model exogenous variables and parameters: economic growth, fertility, life expectancy, and labor force participation
• Generate alternative growth scenarios to 2050
Long Term Simulations• This ceterus paribus analysis approach
acknowledges the uncertainty in the projections and identifies the potential range of outcomes.
• The method and time frame used here are standard practice for analogous Federal policy analysis simulations.
• GAO: The use of long term economic and demographic simulations can “help establish a long-term framework linking budget planning and long- term fiscal policy goals.”
Long Term Projections
• Office of Management & Budget: 2070
• Congressional Budget Office: 2070
• General Accounting Office: 2050
• Social Security Administration: 2070
• Bureau of the Census: 2100
• United Nations: 2050
Utah Process Economic & Demographic Model (UPED)
Economic Base Model
Economic Base Model
Cohort Component Model
Cohort Component Model
Integrated Economic and Demographic ProjectionsIntegrated Economic and Demographic Projections
UPED Model General Flowchart
Population in Year t-1
Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration
Adjusted Natural Increase Population
Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t
Population in Year t
Labor Market
Population Dependent Job
Opportunities in Year t
Labor Force in Year t
Total Job Opportunities in Year t
Basic Job Opportunities in Year t
Recursive
IterativeDirect Model Components
Inputs & Outputs
ScenariosHigh Fertility
Low Fertility
Base CaseBase Case High Basic GrowthSlow Basic Growth
High Labor Force Participation
Low Labor Force Participation
High Survival
Low Survival
Ceterus Paribus Around the Base Case
Thirteen Scenarios• Base Case: Medium fertility, mortality, economic
growth, and labor force participation rates • Eight Ceterus Paribus Change Cases: Around base
case, as illustrated in previous slide• Zero Migration: Economic Growth just sufficient so
there is zero net employment related in-migration• Zero Economic Growth: No growth in basic (export
sector) employment• High Population Case: High Fertility, Survival,
Economic Growth, & Low Labor Force Participation• Low Population Case: Low Fertility, Survival,
Economic Growth, & High Labor Force Participation
Population Scenarios: Band Around 4.0 to 5.0 Million in 2050
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Base Hi Surv Lo Surv Hi Fert Lo Fert
Hi LFPR Lo LFPR Hi Bas Gr Lo Bas Gr Zero MigZero Gr Hi-Hi Lo-Lo
Population: Rates of Employment Growth Define Extremes
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Surv Lo Surv Hi Fert Lo Fert
Hi LFPR Lo LFPR Hi Bas Gr Lo Bas Gr Zero MigZero Gr Hi-Hi Lo-Lo
Employment Growth Scenarios• Employment growth is the driver of the long run
population path -- it sets the extremes for total population in this analysis.
• These employment scenarios are based upon analyses of the State’s fifty year employment history.
• The future employment paths include the State’s short run forecast through 2000.
• The long-run employment scenarios start in the year 2001.
Five Employment Growth Cases• High Growth: Increasing linear increments to employment
• Medium Growth: Employment growth sufficient to generate cumulative net in-migration of 18% of the population increase from 1999 - 2050
• Low Growth: Symmetrical employment growth with high employment around medium path
• Zero In-Migration: Employment growth that generates zero net migration
• Zero Basic Employment Growth: Constant basic employment level through time
High Employment Scenario: Linear IncrementsNon-Farm Payroll Employment
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical Linear Increment Low Conf Interval
Upper Conf Interval Linear Level Exponential Level
Medium Employment Case
18%
82%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Shares ofPopulation Change
Natural Increase
Net In-Migration
• Net in-migration contributed 18% of population increase from 1948 - 1998.
• Medium Case: Employment growth is sufficient to generate the same relative component contributions for 1999 - 2050.
Low Employment Growth: Create Symmetrical Low Path (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hi Empl Growth Base Case Lo Empl Growth
Zero Employment Growth(TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hi Empl Growth Base Case Lo Empl Growth Zero Empl Growth
Zero Migration Employment Growth (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hi Base Lo Zero Empl Growth Zero Mig
Employment Paths (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hi Base Lo Zero Empl Growth Zero Mig
Population Paths for Five Employment Scenarios
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr
Births: Five Employment Scenarios
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr
Deaths: Five Employment Scenarios
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr
Residual Migration: Five Employment Scenarios
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr
Cumulative Components of Population Change: 1999 - 2050 for Employment Scenarios
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Natural Increase Net Migration
Base Hi Empl Growth Lo Empl Growth
Zero Mig Zero Empl Growth
Three Fertility Cases
• Low Fertility: Converge to projected national total fertility rate by 2005
• Medium Fertility: Constant at 1998 rates - 2.6 for Utah vs. about 2.0 for U.S.
• High Fertility: Maintain the difference in fertility rates (observed in 1990) between Utah and the U.S. with the national projections from 1999 to 2050.
Historical and Projected Total Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047
US UT Medium UT High UT Low
Population: Three Fertility Scenarios
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base Hi Fertility Lo Fertility
Cumulative Population Change 1999-2050: Fertility Scenarios
HighFertility
BaseLow
Fertility
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Natural Increase Net Migration
Persons per Household: Three Fertility Cases
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Low Fertility Base HighFertility
Median Age: Three Fertility Cases
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.0
37.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High Fertility Base Low Fertility
School Age Population (5-17): Three Fertility Cases
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High Fertility Base Low Fertility
Number of Persons Less Than 18 Years Old per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old: Three Fertility Cases
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Low Fertility Base High Fertility
Number of Persons 65 Years & Older per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old: Three Fertility Cases
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Low Fertility Base High Fertility
Total Dependency Ratio: Three Fertility Cases Number of Persons Less Than 18 Plus those 65 Years and
Older Per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Low Fertility Base High Fertility
Survival Scenarios
• Low: Survival Rates and life expectancy held constant at 1990 rates
• Medium: Converge to US rates by 2050
• High: Maintain mean difference in life expectancy observed in 1970, 1980, and 1990 over projection interval. Projected US is Census middle series.
Life Expectancy at Birth: High Survival Case
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female
Life Expectancy at Birth: Medium Survival Case
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female
Life Expectancy at Birth: Low Survival Case
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female
Population: Three Survival Cases
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base High Survival Low Survival
85+ Population: Three Survival Cases
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base High Survival Low Survival
85+ Population as a Share of Total Population: Three Survival Cases
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base High Survival Low Survival
Labor Force Participation Rate Cases
• Low Case: 5% less than the medium case
• Medium Case: Maintain relative differences with US series.
• High Case: 5% greater than the medium case
Utah Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 & 2020 Medium LFPR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Male 2020 Female 2020 Male 1990 Female 1990
Net Migration: Three LFPR Cases
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Base High LFPR Low LFPR
Base Case: Natural Increase & Residual Migration
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Residual Migration Natural Increase
Utah & US Births: 1930-1998
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
US Utah
US Baby Boom:
1946-1964
Utah Annual Average Amount of Population Change by Decade: Base Case
20,41016,600
40,800
25,510
43,59849,912 47,423 47,497
61,259 60,159
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Utah Annual Average Amount of Population Change by Decade: Base Case
19,142 17,77025,645
29,206 29,49636,099
39,900 42,90347,103
50,9121,268
-1,170
15,155
-3,696
14,102
13,813 7,5234,594
14,156 9,248
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Natural Increase Residual Migration
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
14-Oct
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+ Male Female
Utah: 1990 Base Case: 2050
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
14-Oct
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+ Male Female
Low Fertility: 2050 Base Case: 2050
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
14-Oct
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+ Male Female
Zero Migration: 2050 Base Case: 2050
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000
0- 4
5- 9
14-Oct
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+ Male Female
Zero Basic Growth: 2050 Base Case: 2050
Average Annual Percent Change in Population for Decade: 1900 - 2050 (Base Case)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
US UT
Utah & US Median Age of the Population: Base Case
3335.7
37.2 37.6 38.5 38.6 38.1
26.227.7
29.3 30.5 30.9 31.3 31.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
US Utah
Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050 (Base Case)
7666 67
55 54 54 54 55 55
1413 16
14 14 19 23 25 26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
<18 DR 65+ DR90
79 79 828270 69
73 77
US Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050
6146 42 42 39 40 43 43 44
18
19 20 21 2128
36 37 36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
<18 DR 65+ DR7965
80 80
62 63 6068
79
Summary• Utah has higher rates of economic and population growth,
fertility, and survival than the nation. • Growth in the demand for Utah’s exports and the associated
increases in employment have the greatest effect on the state’s population size.
• Fertility, while affecting population size, has its greatest effects on age composition, average household size, and the components of population change.
• Survival has its greatest effects on the age composition, particularly on the number and share of the elderly population.
• Changing labor force participation rates act as a substitute for employment-related migration.