utah state budget earmarks, debt and transportation
DESCRIPTION
Utah State budget Earmarks, Debt and Transportation. Presentation by Natalie Gochnour Associate Dean, University of Utah Chief Economist, Salt Lake Chamber February 3, 2014. Utah Job Count. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Utah Earmarked Sales Tax Revenue. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
UTAH STATE BUDGETEARMARKS, DEBT AND TRANSPORTATION
Presentation by
Natalie GochnourAssociate Dean, University of Utah
Chief Economist, Salt Lake Chamber
February 3, 2014
Jan-00
Aug-00
Mar-01
Oct-01
May-02
Dec-02Jul-0
3
Feb-04
Sep-04
Apr-05
Nov-05
Jun-06Jan-07
Aug-07
Mar-08
Oct-08
May-09
Dec-09Jul-1
0
Feb-11
Sep-11
Apr-12
Nov-12Jun-13
1000000
1050000
1100000
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
DOT.COM/9-11Recession
Great Recession
Utah lost 100,000 jobs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Job Count
Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst, 12/17/2013
UTAH EARMARKED SALES TAX REVENUE
Source: Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
UTAH NET GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT PER CAPITA
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$710$640 $623 $550 $476 $434
$571
$868
$1,157$1,283
$1,161
Source: 2013 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, Utah Division of Finance, Oct. 23, 2013, p. 228-229
UTAH OUTSTANDING GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT
Source: Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
Delaware Utah
Marylan
d
Virgina
Missouri
North Caro
lina
Indiana
Iowa
Median (A
ll Stat
es)
Median AAA
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%8.2%
6.8%
5.7%5.3%
4.5%3.6%
2.0%
0.9%
4.9% 4.9%
Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst, 12/17/2013
UTAH’S DEBT SERVICE RATIO COMPARED TOOTHER MOODY’S AAA-RATED STATES
FIVE-YEAR BUDGET POSITIONFY13-FY17
Education Fund General Fund Transportation
($10,000,000,000)($5,000,000,000)
$0 $5,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000 $15,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 $25,000,000,000 $30,000,000,000 $35,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000
$619
,897
,000
.00
$339
,946
,000
.00
($4,
907,
532,
000
.00)
$18,
477,
453,
000
.00
$37,
326,
416,
000
.00
$11,
070,
061,
000
.00
$17,
857,
858,
000
.00
$36,
896,
470,
000
.00
$15,
977,
593,
000
.00
Budget Posi-tionCash InflowCash Outflow
Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst, 12/17/2013
Debt; 52%
Projects;
48%
$717 m
TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT FUND EXPENDITURESFY14
Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst, 12/17/2013
BORROWING FOR PROJECTED OUTFLOWSEstimated Outstanding Debt & Constitutional Debt Limits
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9
$10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
52%
74%87% 82% 80%
71% 61%51%
43% 37% 31% 25% 19%
Constitutional Debt Limit Available Debt 85%Existing Debt New Debt with Trend Expenditures
Billions
Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst, 12/17/2013
BENEFITS PRINCIPLE OF TAXATION
• Those who benefit the most from the transportation network should pay the most for its continued operation.
• Efficient – matches supply with the demand• Curb overuse• Reduce wear and tear• Reduce traffic congestion• Combat air pollution
• Ex. Someone driving 40 miles to work each day should pay more for roads than somebody who works from home.
Share of State & Local Road Spending
Covered by User Fees
Source: Tax Foundation and American Petroleum Institute
Mississippi
New Mexico
Missouri
North Dakota
Vermont
Utah
Louisiana
Wyoming
South Dakota
Alaska
U.S. Average
- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
33.1 33.1
31.6 29.8
29.0 28.8
25.4 24.5
21.5 10.5
50.4
Percent of Spending Covered by User Fees
U.S. Average and Bottom Ten States: 2011
Utah ranks 46th lowestFor user fee contribution
Motor Fuel Tax Comparisons
Source: Tax Foundation and American Petroleum Institute
Wyoming
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Idaho
Nevada
California
- 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
14.0
19.0
22.0
24.5
25.0
33.1
48.7
Cents Per Gallon
As of January 2013
19971998199920012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201215
20
25
30
35
40
28.7 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.8 29 29.530.3 30.1
31.2 31.532.9
33.9 33.835.6
U.S. Passengers Cars: Miles Per Gallon
Source: US DOT, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance
AVERAGE FUEL EFFICIENCY
• Buying power of motor fuel tax has declined 45% since 1997.
• The 24.5 cents is now equivalent to 16.9 cents in inflation-adjusted terms. (Adjusted using CPI-U)
BUYING POWER
Source: Salt Lake Chamber calculations