utah’s demographic transformation a view into the future
DESCRIPTION
Utah’s Demographic TransformationA View into the Future, Presentation by Pam Perlich, Bureau of Economic and Business ResearchTRANSCRIPT
Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – University Of Utah
December 3, 2009
Utah’s Demographic TransformationA View into the Future
Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line: www.bebr.utah.edu
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
0
1.3
2.5
3.8
5.0
Utah U.S.
2.12.5
3.64.3
Total Fertility Rates
1960 2006
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
Utah U.S.
2.623.15
5.275.17
Household Size
1900 2008
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
20.0
24.3
28.5
32.8
37.0
Utah U.S.
36.8
28.7
35.3
27.1
Median Age
2000 2008
Utah: Trend Toward Nation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Utah U.S.
34.4%
18.3%
11.4%
1.9%
Minority Share
1960 2008
-0.6%
0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.8%
2.4%
3%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ann
ual P
erce
ntag
e C
hang
e
U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005
Growth Rate
High Immigration, High Fertility
Flu Epidemic and WWI
Immigration Restrictions
Great Depression
Baby Boom
Moderate Immigration, Low Fertility
0
30
60
90
120
150
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Mill
ions
of P
erso
ns
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.
U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030
South Midwest Northeast West
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ann
ual R
ates
Natural IncreaseNet MigrationPopulation Change
Utah: Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change
Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.
0
18
35
53
70
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1.3
2.5
3.8
5.0
Uta
h Bi
rths
(tho
usan
ds)
US
Birt
hs (M
illio
ns)
U.S. Boom Peak: 1957
Utah Boom Peak: 1962
Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2
Utah Echo Echo Peak: 2010??
U.S. Echo Peak: 1990
2008 US Births Exceed 1957
Utah and U.S. Annual Births
Utah US
300,000
450,000
600,000
750,000
900,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High Economic Growth and Fertility2002 BaselineLow Economic Growth and Fertility2005 GOPB Baseline
10
Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.
Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years priorBureau of Census 2005GOPB 2005
Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.
Age wave hits college ages 2016 - 2025
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20080
10
20
30
40
Fore
ign
Born
Sha
re o
f Tot
al P
opul
atio
n
Num
ber o
f For
eign
Bor
n (M
illio
ns)
U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008
Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
14.7%
12.6%
38.1
Share Millions
Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20080
50
100
150
200
25019.4%
17.6%
13.1%
9.5%
6%
4.3%3.6%
2.8%3.5% 3.4%
7.1%8.3%
Fore
ign
Born
Sha
re o
f Tot
al P
opul
atio
n
Num
ber o
f For
eign
Bor
n (T
hous
ands
)
Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.
Share Number
226,440
Top Occupations of Utah’s Foreign Born
Assemblers & Fabricators Laborers / Material Movers,
Cooks Retail Salespersons
Maids/Housekeeping Customer Service Rep.
Construction Laborers Waiters and Waitresses
Janitors Truck Drivers
Production Workers Carpenters
Cashiers Post-secondary Teachers
Grounds Maintenance Workers Misc. Agricultural Workers
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah’s Foreign Born
Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers
Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors
Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators
Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers
Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops.
Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists
Dishwashers Drywall Installers
Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.
College Graduate or Greater
High School or Greater
Less than High School
0% 23% 45% 68% 90%
46%
55%
18%
25%
75%
28%
38%
62%
22%
10%
90%
31%
13%
87%
30%
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000)
College Graduate or Greater
High School or Greater
Less than High School
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
40%
60%
21%
22%
78%
21%
33%
67%
21%
10%
90%
22%
12%
88%
22%
TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS
Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000)
Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007
Northern America2.5%
Europe95%
Asia2.5%
Latin America63%
Africa2%
Northern America5%
Oceania3%
Europe11%
Asia18%
1900 2007
Minority Share of the Population: U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County
0%
12%
24%
36%
48%
60%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2030 20502% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
6% 8% 9%
15%18.3%19%
22%25% 27%
30%
1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%5%
8% 10%
19%
24%27%
32% 34%37%
41%
12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
17%20%
24%
31%34% 35%
40%45%
49%54%
USSalt LakeState of Utah
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR
Minority Share by Age Group: Utah and Salt Lake County – 2008
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
< 5 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84
25.4%24.5%
22.3%
19.6%
16.1%
18.3%
22.3% 21.8%
19.5%
15.3%
12.8%11.1%
9.8% 9.1% 8.4%7.5% 7% 6.7%
34.7%33.5%
29.9%
26.6%
22.6%
26%
30.1%
27.9%
24.7%
19.5%
16.2%
13.9% 13.2% 12.7% 12.5%11.2%
10.3%9.5%
Salt Lake CountyUtah2008 Average State Share
Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.
18.3%
U.S. Minority Share by Age Group: 2010-2050
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
Under 18 18 through 64 65 years and Older
42%
55%
62%
35%
50%
58%
29%
46%
54%
24%
40%
49%
20%
35%
45%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Minority Contribution to Utah Population and School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007
Minority33%
White Non-Hispanic67% Minority
65%
White Non-Hispanic35%
Population Growth Enrollment Growth
Educational Transition Points
100 Latina/o Elementary Students
40 High School Graduates
4 College Graduates
1 Graduate School Completion
<1 Doctorate
100 White Elementary Students
84 High School Graduates
26 College Graduates
10 Graduate School Completion
1 Doctorate
Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah
0
240,000
480,000
720,000
960,000
1,200,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Less than 5 years old5 through 17 years old60 years and older65 years and older85+
Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah
1,133,594
998,411
899,392
422,550
177,255
60+ > 5-17
0
24,000,000
48,000,000
72,000,000
96,000,000
120,000,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2046
Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old60 years and older 65 years and older85+
Selected Age Group Projections for State of U.S.
53,159,113
35,107,491
19,197,434
2009: 60+ > 5-17