utilizing connected travel demand and land use models in the sacramento region gordon r. garry...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in
the Sacramento Region
Gordon R. GarrySacramento Area Council of Governments
April 30, 2010
![Page 2: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why improve SACOG models?
• Models are tools to apply research in the most effective and comprehensive manner to address policy issues
• Research points to interrelated causes and consequences
• Policy issues are often, and more frequently, interrelated
![Page 3: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
MEPLAN - Land Economics to PECAS model
SACSIM activity-based travel model
I-PLACE3S - Land Use/Transportation Impacts
Develop Better Information and Tools for Decision Making
![Page 4: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PECAS and I-PLACE3S
• Differences– Economic forecast vs. vision development – Path dependent vs. horizon year
• Common elements– Parcel data– Development policy tools– Development costs and rents
• Partial overlap– Employment types, residential definitions
![Page 5: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Conclusions on land use models
• Policy drives data and models • Incremental improvement = continuity • Model development is “pushed” by research
advancements and “pulled” by policy needs• Integrated cross-discipline planning and
decision-making can be improved with good analysis
![Page 6: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Overview of Regional Travel Model (SACSIM)
Performance characteristics
A regional analysis example
A land use project analysis example
![Page 7: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
I-PLACE3S UsesRegional to Neighborhood-level applications
![Page 8: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Regional Blueprint Land Use Scenarios
![Page 9: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Regional Transportation Plan Public Workshops
• Edit roadway links or roadway projects
• Edit transit routes
![Page 10: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Neighborhood Study Area Land Use Scenario
Roseville Fairgrounds
Changes from base case:
700 more employees
400 more dwelling units
- 7 % VMT
74 Acres
![Page 11: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Local Land Use Plan Updates
• Two cities used I-PLACE3S to develop General Plan land use scenarios
![Page 12: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
“Place Types” are the Building Blocks
User-Defined, includes:
• Inventoried allowed land uses
• Land uses that might not yet exist in codes (e.g. mixed use)
![Page 13: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
New Modules Developed Through King County WA Study
Public health (outcomes: physical activity, BMI, walk and bike trips)
Climate change and air quality (outcomes: CO2, NOx, HC, and CO; vehicle trips and VMT)
![Page 14: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Climate Change Module (Household Inputs)
• Household demographics– Working adults– Non-working adults– Children
• Household Income• Access to transit• Area intersection density• Household area density• Area mix of land uses
![Page 15: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Physical Activity and BMI Module (Person Inputs)
• Demographics– Number of adults in
household– Employment status– Number of children
in household• Ratio of adults to cars• Household income
• Access to transit • Intersection density• Area housing density• Area land use mix• Park availability• Area retail and fast food
establishments
![Page 16: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Demographic Variables
![Page 17: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Density & Accessibility Measures
![Page 18: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
P roduction
E xchange
C onsumption
A llocation
S ystem
![Page 19: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
PECAS Framework Components
• Economic Interactions (Activity Allocation):• Production to exchange to consumption location chains determined for all goods, services and labor
• Equilibrium markets for all commodities, with prices & clearing• Consumer surplus and producer surplus considered
• Space Development (Land Use):• Changes in space year-to-year based on allowable zoning and prices from Activity Allocation
• Links to:•Travel model (trip-based or tour-based)•Non-spatial economic model
![Page 20: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Benefits
• Apply economic analysis to spatial/land use issues• Simulate developer decisions in addition to
government policies• Land use impacts for travel and emissions• Peak spreading of congestion• Pricing policy analysis• Improved impact assessment
![Page 21: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Model comparison – Unit of Analysis
• SACMET = TAZ and Trip– TAZ is a geographic area with number of people,
jobs, etc.– Trips are “disembodied” and treated as a
“gravitational” event• SACSIM = Persons and Tours
– Population represents variety of people in a “real” way
– Travel is an outgrowth of activities—a way of stringing activities together
![Page 22: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Typical Household’s Travel
Sample home
Central City
Shopping Center
Office
Trip 11
Trip 1,2,3
Trip 4
Trip 7
Trip 8,9,10School
Trip 12
Trip 13
Soccer field Trip 14,15
Trip 16,17
Office
Trip 5
Trip 6
![Page 23: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A Practical, Regional Planning Application
• Vehicle miles traveled as primary indicator– Defining area types by average VMT per
household• Land use characteristics of VMT-defined
areas• Drilling down to specifics in prototype areas• Forecasting results
![Page 24: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
2005 VMT Per Household
![Page 25: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
2005 VMT Per Household
• 2005 reg. average VMT/HH = +/-50 miles– Dark green = Group 1--Very Low VMT (< 25
miles)
– Light green = Group 2--Low VMT (25 – 45 miles)
– Yellow = Group 3--Average(45-55 miles)
– Orange = Group 4--High (55-75 miles)
– Red = Group 5--Very High (75+ miles)
![Page 26: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Density in Prototype Areas
• Density = Jobs + housing per acre at place of residence
• Higher density = lower VMT
28
13
64 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Very High
VMT Grouping
![Page 27: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Transit Proximity in Prototype Areas
• Proximity = % of households within ¼ mile of nearest transit
• Higher proximity = lower VMT
100%
91%
74%
22%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Very High
VMT Grouping
![Page 28: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Mix of Use (Diversity) in Prototype Areas
• Mix Index = 0 (homogeneous development) to 100 (balanced mix)
• More balanced mix = lower VMT
66
56
44
23
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Very High
VMT Grouping
![Page 29: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Bike/Walk Mode Share in Prototype Areas
• Regional Average = 7.5 %• Higher share in lower VMT areas
37.4%
19.4%
7.7%5.5%
2.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Very High
VMT Groupings
![Page 30: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Transit Mode Share in Prototype Areas
• Regional Average = 1.2 %• Higher share in lower VMT areas
7.4%
2.8%
1.3%
0.3% 0.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Average 4 High 5 Very High
VMT Groupings
![Page 31: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Curtis Park Village:A Development Project Example
![Page 32: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Three Development Options
Project Housing and Employment Information
Total Housing
Units MF Units
SF Unit
s Comm.
Sq. Ft.Scenario
Developer Option B Plan 594 416 178 170,000
Developer August 2009 Plan 631 337 294 249,000
SCNA Plan 690 446 244 153,500
![Page 33: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Project Area Travel Metrics
Year 2035 Weekday Travel Indicators for Curtis Park
Village
Develo
per Option
B
Develo
per Aug2009 Plan
SCNA Plan
Project Area Only
Vehicle Miles Traveled 12,830 17,198 15,343
VMT Per Person+Job 6.7 7.3 7.4
Transit Trips 156 177 202
Transit Mode Share 3.8% 3.5% 4.3%
Bike+Walk Trips 474 591 560
Bike+Walk Mode Share 11.7% 11.7% 11.9%Source: Sacramento Area Council of Governments, October 2009.
![Page 34: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Project + Neighborhood Travel Metrics
Year 2035 Weekday Travel Indicators for Curtis Park
Village and Neighborhood Area
Developer
Option B
Developer
Aug2009 Plan
SCNA Plan
Expanded Project Area
Vehicle Miles Traveled 571,499 575,327 571,534
VMT Per Person+Job 16.3 16.2 16.2
Transit Trips 9,909 10,441 9,998
Transit Mode Share 6.3% 6.6% 6.4%
Bike+Walk Trips 13,930 14,135 14,110
Bike+Walk Mode Share 8.9% 9.0% 9.0%Source: Sacramento Area Council of Governments, October 2009.
![Page 35: Utilizing Connected Travel Demand and Land Use Models in the Sacramento Region Gordon R. Garry Sacramento Area Council of Governments April 30, 2010](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032702/56649ce65503460f949b4026/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
The Project’s Internal Capture Vehicle Miles vs. External Areas
Year 2035 Weekday VMT To, From, and Within Expanded Project Area
Developer Option B
Developer Aug2009 Plan
SCNA Plan
VMT within Exp.Proj.Area 11,887 12,077 11,960
Diff from Opt.B Na +190 +72
VMT between Exp.Proj.Area and External Areas 559,612 563,250 559,574
Diff from Opt.B na +3,639 -38
Total VMT 571,499 575,327 571,534
Diff from Opt.B na +3,828 +35Source: Sacramento Area Council of Governments, October 2009.