uw-milwaukee geography phenological monitoring: a key approach to assessing the impact of spring...

UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography

Phenological Monitoring:Phenological Monitoring: A key approach to assessing the A key approach to assessing the impact of spring starting earlierimpact of spring starting earlier

Mark D. SchwartzMark D. SchwartzDepartment of GeographyDepartment of Geography

UW-MilwaukeeUW-Milwaukee


Research ContributionsResearch Contributions Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, L. LiangCollaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, L. Liang Phenology data from J. Caprio, X. Chen, DWD, and A. MenzelPhenology data from J. Caprio, X. Chen, DWD, and A. Menzel Climate data from Chinese Academy of Meteorological Climate data from Chinese Academy of Meteorological

Sciences, Environment Canada, German Weather Service Sciences, Environment Canada, German Weather Service (DWD), European Climate Assessment, Instytut Meteorologii i (DWD), European Climate Assessment, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (Poland), USA Carbon Dioxide Gospodarki Wodnej (Poland), USA Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, USA National Climatic Data Information and Analysis Center, USA National Climatic Data CenterCenter

NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224 Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5836 (Ahas)Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5836 (Ahas) Base maps from ESRI dataBase maps from ESRI data


Definition of PhenologyDefinition of Phenology PhenologyPhenology which is derived from the Greek word which is derived from the Greek word phainophaino meaning to show or to appear, is the study of meaning to show or to appear, is the study of plant and animal life cycle events, which are plant and animal life cycle events, which are triggered by environmental changes, especially triggered by environmental changes, especially temperature and precipitation. Thus, timings of temperature and precipitation. Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts.change impacts.

SeasonalitySeasonality is a related term, referring to similar is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes. lakes.


Phenological ResearchPhenological Research

Traditional approach: agriculture-Traditional approach: agriculture-centered, and local-scale eventscentered, and local-scale events

Recent approach: Earth systems Recent approach: Earth systems interactions, and global-scale eventsinteractions, and global-scale events


Integrated ApproachIntegrated Approach Satellite Observations Satellite Observations

(MODIS-NDVI/EVI)(MODIS-NDVI/EVI) Indicator Species Indicator Species

PhenologyPhenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology


Cloned Species PhenologyCloned Species Phenology

Advantages: Advantages: 1) 1) Ideal for model development; Ideal for model development; 2) Standardized response to 2) Standardized response to environment; 3) Broad rangeenvironment; 3) Broad range

Limitations: Limitations: 1) 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Not adapted to local 2) Not adapted to local environmentenvironment


Lilac First LeafLilac First Leaf


Lilac First BloomLilac First Bloom


Simulated PhenologySimulated Phenology

Advantages: Advantages: 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 2) Standardized 2) Standardized responseresponse

Limitations: Limitations: 1) Model inadequacies; 1) Model inadequacies; 2) Small set of events and plants2) Small set of events and plants


Spring IndicesSpring Indices Suite of MeasuresSuite of Measures

First -2.2First -2.2ooC freeze date in autumnC freeze date in autumn Composite chill date (SI models)Composite chill date (SI models) First leaf date, “early spring” (SI models)First leaf date, “early spring” (SI models) First bloom date, “late spring” (SI models)First bloom date, “late spring” (SI models) Last -2.2Last -2.2ooC freeze date in spring C freeze date in spring -2.2-2.2ooC Freeze periodC Freeze period Damage index value (first leaf date – last frost date)Damage index value (first leaf date – last frost date) Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve

average monthly temperaturesaverage monthly temperatures


SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 SlopeSI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope

Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Figure 1


North. Hem. SI First Leaf Date DeparturesNorth. Hem. SI First Leaf Date Departures

Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Figure 2 (modified)


SI First Leaf Date in North America SI First Leaf Date in North America

Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Plate 4 (updated)


SI First Bloom Date 1961-2000 SlopeSI First Bloom Date 1961-2000 Slope


North Hem. SI First Bloom Date DeparturesNorth Hem. SI First Bloom Date Departures


Last Spring –2.2Last Spring –2.2ooC Freeze Date 1961-2000 SlopeC Freeze Date 1961-2000 Slope

Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Figure 3


North. Hem. Last –2.2North. Hem. Last –2.2ooC Freeze Date DeparturesC Freeze Date Departures

Source: Schwartz et al. 2006, Figure 4 (modified)


North. Hem. 5North. Hem. 5ooC Growing Season Length DeparturesC Growing Season Length Departures


ConclusionsConclusions The onset of spring has become significantly earlier across The onset of spring has become significantly earlier across

most temperate land areas of the Northern Hemisphere from most temperate land areas of the Northern Hemisphere from 1955-2002.1955-2002.

Important regional differences exist among the indices.Important regional differences exist among the indices. These results provide a consistent and conventional These results provide a consistent and conventional

framework for comparison to past and future studies, and a framework for comparison to past and future studies, and a first approximation of likely impacts.first approximation of likely impacts.

These results reinforce the results from previous regional-These results reinforce the results from previous regional-scale phenological and climatological studies.scale phenological and climatological studies.

National and global scale phenological networks, like the National and global scale phenological networks, like the developing USA-NPN are needed to enhance understanding of developing USA-NPN are needed to enhance understanding of these important changes, see http://www.npn.uwm.eduthese important changes, see http://www.npn.uwm.edu


Plan for a USA National Plan for a USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN)Phenology Network (USA-NPN)

http://www.npn.uwm.eduhttp://www.npn.uwm.edu a continental-scale network a continental-scale network observing observing

regionally appropriate native plant species, regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac + others), and cloned indicator plants (lilac + others), and selected agricultural cropsselected agricultural crops

designed to complement remote sensing designed to complement remote sensing observationsobservations

data collected will be freely available to the data collected will be freely available to the research community and general publicresearch community and general public


IntensiveIntensiveSitesSites

Spatially Extensive Spatially Extensive Science NetworksScience Networks

Remote Sensing andRemote Sensing andSynoptic (wall-to-wall) Synoptic (wall-to-wall)

DataData

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USA-NPN Monitoring FrameworkUSA-NPN Monitoring Framework

Spatially Extensive Spatially Extensive Volunteer & Education NetworksVolunteer & Education Networks

AmeriFlux, AgriFlux NSF LTER, NEON USGS WEBB USDA FS Exp. F & R

NWS Coop NPS Inv. & Mon. USDA FIA State Ag. Exp. Sta.

GLOBE Garden clubs Nat. Plant Soc. Campuses

NASA USGS NOAA


USA-NPN PlantUSA-NPN PlantObservation StrategyObservation Strategy

Cloned plants (lilac, dogwood, ocotillo)Cloned plants (lilac, dogwood, ocotillo) ““Calibration” species (about 20 with 1-4 Calibration” species (about 20 with 1-4

each from allergans, coniferous, crops, each from allergans, coniferous, crops, coniferous, deciduous, herbaceous, coniferous, deciduous, herbaceous, and “showy”)and “showy”)

Additional species of interest to the Additional species of interest to the observer or local/regional networks observer or local/regional networks

uw-milwaukee geography phenological monitoring: a key approach to assessing the impact of spring...

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