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galp.com Changes in RFCC optimization with IMO Global Cap’s sweet- sour disruption BASF FCC Conference | 18-20 September 2019 Gonçalo Caeiro

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Page 1: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

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Changes in RFCC optimization with IMO Global Cap’s sweet-sour disruption

BASF FCC Conference | 18-20 September 2019

Gonçalo Caeiro

Page 2: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

1. 2020 IMO Global Cap 0.5%S

2. FCC Feedstock

3. FCC Product Quality

4. Unit Optimization

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2020 IMO Global Cap 0.5%S

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IMO Global Cap 0.50%S in the High SeasAnd future ECAs (0.10%S) are being planned

0.5%0.1%

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

%0.50 Sulfur (IMO – International Maritime Organization)

3.5%

HighSeas

HighSeas

HighSeas

HighSeas

ECAsFuture ECAs?

To comply with IMO regulation in 2020 shipping industry will have to run heavily on compliant fuels (< 0.50%S). Scubber uptake in existingships has been slow since this is not cost-effective solution for small and old ships.

Nonetheless, 30% of the ships (larger ones which are installing scrubbers) represent 70% of the fuel consumption.

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The Impact of IMOGlobal Bunker Fuel Consumption (Mton/year)

Marine fuels demand to increase in all scenarios until 2040. Scrubbers, LNG and MGO are alternative competitors to Fuel Oil 0.5%. In 2040,HSFO consumption in Bunkers is expected to be half of what it is today (source: Platts).

0

100

200

300

400

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

HSFO Scrubbed HSFO Not Scrubbed VLSFO MGO LNG

Source: Platts

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IMO: Crude Oil and Product Prices will be ImpactedSR VLSFO production is not possible with most crude oils

Source: BP Statistical Review Of World Energy - 2018

0

200

400

600

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

MG

O v

s H

SFO

spr

ead

($/t

)

IHS Wood Mac JBC S&P PIRAAnnual Production S VR (% wt.)

ATR

(% w

t)

650 1 2 3 4

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

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Delft study HSFO VLSFO

• CE Delft study assumed almost 75 vol% distillates in the VLSFO

European blend and did not use vacuum residues, the main

component currently used in HSFO blending;

• Around half of the European refineries do not have Bottom of

the Barrel conversion units, but do have VGO conversion units

(FCC and/or HCK). Thus, to be competitive and maintain the

VGO conversion units on stream, vacuum residues will need to

be used in the VLSFO blending;

• But changing refinery crude-mix to sweeter crudes will be

enough?

To stay competitive, refineries without full barrel conversion will must…… produce VLSFO with vacuum residues maintaining VGO conversion units competitiveness!

?

Residue Hydrocracker bottoms

Vacuum Residues

HDT Atmospheric Residues

Other distillates

Low sulphur cutter stocks

HDT distillates

Page 8: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

2. FCC Feedstock

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Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) medium term supply could be threatened

A significant reduction of Russian & CISVGO supply is foreseen. Russia & CIS:New HC facilities to be operational in2020+ ?

With IMO there will be incentive to blendLS VGO in VLSFO.

Hydrotreated VGO that is now going tothe FCC can also find a more profitableoutlet in VLSFO.

This can have an impact on VGO cracksand FCC throughputs.

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ATR processing is most interesting when Fuel Oil is discountedVLSFO high value can reduce the profitability to process sweet ATR

Oil

Products

Products

Oil

Fuel

CDU

CDU

VDU

The advantage of processing ATR inthe FCC unit is to achieve fullconversion, i.e. no fuel production.

The incentive to treat ATR increase asthe value of heavy fuel oil decreases.

With IMO, LS Heavy Fuel Oil will bevery valuable with can pose a threatto existing RFCC units.

The alternative would be to treathigher sulfur ATRs since HSFO willhave a lower demand and price in2020+.

ATR processing

VGO processing

Page 11: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

The best ATR to feed FCC are typically low sulfurSpecific Gravity and CCR increases with sulfur

Two of the two variables that most impact FCCyields are specific gravity and CCR.

LS ATR are typically lower in specific gravity andCCR which means that they are betterfeedstocks.

With IMO 2020 the LS ATR that is currentlybeing processed in RFCCs will be also be usedto produce VLSFO, which means that LS ATRwill be less available and more expensive, thiscould affect the RFCC profitability.

On the other hand HS ATR will typically lead topoorer yields and lower quality products.

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3.FCC Product Quality

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FCC Sulfur BalanceAbout 60% of the feedstock sulfur is removed

Su

lfu

r(%

m)

Gasoline

Coke

Page 14: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

LCO and Slurry are the biggest concerns……since these two cuts concentrate the sulfur

Sulfur in Feedstock (%m)

Su

lfu

rin

LC

O/S

lurr

y(%

m)

LCO was a sulfur content which isbetween 1.5 and 2x the sulfur content ofthe feedstock. In order to have 0.5%S inSlurry the feedstock must have <0.3%S.

Slurry was a sulfur content which isbetween 2 and 2.5x the sulfur content ofthe feedstock. In order to have 0.5%S inSlurry the feedstock must have <0.2%S.

Hydrotreating the feedstock can help toreduce the sulfur content in these twoproducts

Catalyst and additives that promotesulfur removal can also be helpful.

Page 15: v° Æ ° L µ¿Ì ¯ ävÌ µ° P o X } u Ù Ì '9? !©µ v© v¿ xÆ ÆÙ Ì ... · ~/DK t/ v v ] } v o D ] ] u K P v ] Ì ] } v ï X ñ 9, ] P Z ^

4.Unit Optimization

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New drivers to FCC optimizationThe sulfur balance will be key in unit optimization

LPG

LCO

With the increase in price of LS/hydrotreated VGOand sweet ATR there will be an incentive to treatheavier and more sour feedstock. However thiswill lead to LCO/Slurry with a high sulfur contentwhich is incompatible with VLSFO production.

Other outlets have to be found to these high-sulfur products (Coker feed, LCO hydrotreating,etc.) or refiners must reduce their production(Slurry recycling to the riser, increase activity in e-cat, etc.)

Other alternative is to feed the FCC with very lowsulfur feedstocks to enable LCO/Slurryincorporation in VLSFO.

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galp.com

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