vacancy rates et bsorption onstruction ease ates · 2000-08-31 · q1 2017 | greater cincinnati...
TRANSCRIPT
The greater Cincinnati industrial market reported robust leasing activity for the first quarter of 2017, with net absorption totaling
over 3.3 million square feet. Over 2,000,000 square feet of speculative space was delivered to the market in the second half of
2016, increasing industrial market vacancy; however, this recent flurry of leasing activity has brought vacancy rates to record
lows – approximately 3% at quarter end.
Key transactions include Hayneedle’s occupancy of nearly 995,000 square feet at Park North @ Monroe, Kroger’s acquisition of
over 670,000 square feet in Independence, KY, UPS leasing over 440,000 square feet near CVG, and Amazon’s expansion of
over 645,000 square feet.
The Florence/Richwood Submarket in Kentucky posted the highest positive net absorption, closing the quarter with just over
1.37 million square feet. Monroe/Middletown recorded over 1 million square feet, and the Airport Submarket (also in Kentucky)
rebounded from negative absorption in fourth quarter 2016, posting over 600,000 square feet in the first quarter of 2017. The
Tri-County Submarket reported little activity for the quarter, but maintains low vacancy (under 4%). In addition, new deliveries
are scheduled for nearly all of these submarkets in 2017-2018.
Weighted average asking rents have increased year-over-year, from around $3.75 per square foot to upwards of $4.20 per
square foot. This jump in asking rates can be attributed to increased demand, a dwindling supply of mid-size, freestanding
buildings, and rapid absorption of new deliveries.
Q1 2017 | GREATER CINCINNATI INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT
Q1 2017 | INDUSTRIAL MARKET AT-A-GLANCE
LEASE RATESNET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTIONVACANCY RATES
S V N | R I C O R E I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T , I N C . | 1 1 5 0 0 N O R T H L A K E D R . | C I N C I N N A T I , O H 4 5 2 4 9 | 5 1 3 - 2 7 2 - 6 8 0 0 | W W W. S V N- R I C O R E . C O M
OHIO UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (CINCINNATI, COLUMBUS, DAYTON)
The Cincinnati industrial market is poised to outperform the nation in terms of value and operating performance.
Now is the time to acquire well-positioned buildings and land suitable for development within the metro area.
– Joshua A. Harris, Ph.D., CRE, CAIA | Managing Partner at Lakemont Group
U.S. ECONOMY | CINCINNATI GAINS MAJOR ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE
Nationwide, the economy is still moving at a slow but growing pace at the end of the first quarter of 2017. Interest rates werestable for most of the quarter, but appear ready to continue a long-term trend of increases as inflation pressures are too muchto ignore. The “Trump rally” is holding but not advancing, at the time of this writing, as major policy initiatives such ashealthcare and tax reform feel uncertain. Yet, the national labor market is showing signs of tightness due to lack of qualifiedworkers; the 4.5% unemployment rate with sub-one hundred thousand monthly hiring in March exemplifies this point. Still,consumer and CEO confidence are setting recent highs with each reading, and most signs are optimistic. Nonetheless, thenational picture is less clear than it was three months ago. Nationwide, industrial real estate is still forecast to experiencepositive net absorption with gains in rental rates and occupancies as growth from e-commerce distribution continues and newsupply remains relatively low.
Locally, Cincinnati may have won the best prize an industrial market could hope for in January of 2017. This prize was theselection of Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) for the North American hub of Amazon PrimeAir, the cargo service of Amazon.com being built to serve Amazon’s growing network of local distribution hubs. Amazon aloneis reported to be investing over $1 billion dollars in the project and will hire an estimated 2,700+ new employees. Given thatAmazon is becoming the nation’s leader in site-to-home delivery of physical goods; the Cincinnati MSA stands to gain manymultiplier effects from Amazon suppliers needing to locate within close proximity to the air hub. Similar trends have occurredsurrounding other air hubs including Louisville, KY (home to UPS) and Memphis, TN (home to FedEX); this effect is part ofbecoming an “Aerotropolis” or city that has a major economic engine due to its airport operations (Dallas and Dulles are otherprime examples). Further, given the relatively short proximity to the UPS and FedEX hubs, it’s conceivable for an over-landdistribution route/chain to develop with the Cincinnati MSA as its northern boundary. This would make Cincinnati astrategically logical choice for firms hoping to make and distribute goods via Amazon or direct to consumer via UPS andFedEx.
The local industrial market is already experiencing strong positive net absorption in the first quarter of ’17 with fallingoccupancies and rising rental rates. Further, employment in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities has averaged a robust 2.7%year-over-year growth rate during the first quarter; beating the metro’s non-farm rate of 2.0% which has brought citywideunemployment to 4.7%, roughly in line with the nation. Given that the national economy, especially the consumer sector, isstill very healthy as of today, and balanced state of supply and demand of industrial space in the metro; the local industrialmarket is poised to outperform the nation in terms of value and operating performance. Given that the Amazonannouncement was only recently made, now is the time to acquire well-positioned buildings and land suitable fordevelopment within the metro. Amazon states a desire to further revolutionize the distribution system with this air hub; ifsuccessful, Cincinnati could be permanently transformed for the better.
Source: Joshua A. Harris, Ph. D., CRE, CAIA | Managing Partner | Lakemont Group
CINCINNATI TRADE, TRANSPORT & UTILITIES EMPLOYMENT | YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH
0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1.03
1.05
1.07
1.09
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Mill
ions
Q1 2017 | CINCINNATI MSA TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
S V N | R I C O R E I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T , I N C . | 1 1 5 0 0 N O R T H L A K E D R . | C I N C I N N A T I , O H 4 5 2 4 9 | 5 1 3 - 2 7 2 - 6 8 0 0 | W W W. S V N- R I C O R E . C O M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Submarket # of Buildings Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy Rate Qtrly Net Absorption (SF) YTD Net Absorption (SF)
East 251 14,051,933 994,667 7.1% -81,280 -81,280
Covington 76 4,216,581 60,600 1.4% 23,000 23,000
Airport 230 31,953,087 1,892,299 5.9% 605,219 605,219
Central/Midtown 819 48,827,681 1,230,719 2.5% 108,094 108,094
West 164 6,268,343 304,369 4.9% 3,224 3,224
Woodlawn/Evendale 264 19,519,229 176,917 0.9% 55,669 55,669
Blue Ash 231 12,941,939 814,630 6.3% -33,285 -33,285
I-71 Corridor 190 11,822,694 330,001 2.8% 115,197 115,197
Tri County 847 67,364,538 2,143,534 3.2% 134,845 134,845
Campbell County 79 3,291,315 76,610 2.3% -13,070 -13,070
Florence/Richwood 193 24,962,847 737,514 3.0% 1,377,679 1,377,679
Hamilton 123 6,940,560 1,651,970 23.8% - -
Monroe/Middletown 199 19,824,493 745,973 3.8% 1,020,133 1,020,133
OVERALL 3,666 271,985,240 11,159,803 4.1% 3,315,425 3,315,425
Autonomous vehicles are on the cusp of proliferation. Distribution facilities nationally will be designed and reconfigured toutilize tremendously efficient driverless vehicles in the warehouses and on our roadways. Rapid delivery will be commonand truck drivers and warehouse labor will be increasingly obsolete. Consumers will be able to summon a desired productto their location using their portable device in the same fashion as an Uber is currently called. The difference is that the
vehicle will not have a human driver. - John Rickert, CCIM | Executive Managing Director at SVN | RICORE
Source: Xceligent®
Q1 2017 | GREATER CINCINNATI INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
Submarket Property Name|Address Building Size (SF) Direct Available (SF)
Monroe/Middletown Park North at Monroe Bldg. 5 143,664 143,664
Blue Ash 10900 Kenwood Rd. 534,560 534,560
Airport 3501 Point Pleasant Rd. 264,000 264,000
Airport Hebron Logistics Center Bldg. A 589,244 589,244
Airport Hebron Logistics Center Bldg. B 209,468 209,468
Hamilton Union Centre Logistics Park Bldg. I 477,360 477,360
Hamilton Union Centre Logistics Park Bldg. II 128,304 128,304
Q1 2017 | NEW & UPCOMING DELIVERIES
Q1 2017 | VACANCY RATES BY SUBMARKET
Q1 2017 | ASKING RENT RANGE BY PRODUCT USE/TYPE
Source: Xceligent®, Weighted Averages
S V N | R I C O R E I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T , I N C . | 1 1 5 0 0 N O R T H L A K E D R . | C I N C I N N A T I , O H 4 5 2 4 9 | 5 1 3 - 2 7 2 - 6 8 0 0 | W W W. S V N- R I C O R E . C O M
1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%1.4%
7.0%
1.6%
14.0%
2.8% 2.6% 2.9%1.2% 0.9%
$2.50 $2.25
$3.00
$2.25
$11.00
$5.25
$11.50
$5.95 $4.59
$3.21
$6.14
$3.64
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
FLEX
$3.00 - $11.50/SFWAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION
$2.25 - $5.95/SFLIGHT INDUSTRIAL
$2.50 - $11.00/SFMANUFACTURING
$2.25 - $5.25/SF
Tenant Address Size Submarket
Q1 2017 | CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY BY SUBMARKET (SF)
CHANGES IN ABSORPTION | SELECT TRANSACTIONS
SUBMARKET PROPERTY NAME | ADDRESS SF OCCUPIED/VACATED TENANT TYPE | USE
Monroe/Middletown Park North at Monroe Bldg. 8 994,013 Hayneedle.com Bulk Warehouse
I-71 Corridor 4219 State Route 42 118,952 Undisclosed Manufacturing
Blue Ash 10001 Alliance Rd 84,837 Caruso Logistics Light Industrial
Tri County Port Union @ Union Centre Bldg. E 47,750 Kosei Warehouse - Distribution
Tri County Capital Center I Distribution Bldg. III 36,000 Undisclosed Warehouse - Distribution
Central/Midtown 3238 Fredonia Ave. (37,665) Group Sales Manufacturing
Tri County West Chester Commerce Center V (50,000) P & G Flex/R&D
Airport 1155 Victory Place (56,000) Victory Tube Manufacturing
East 1236 Clough Pike (65,200) Etrendco Bulk Warehouse
SUBMARKET PROPERTY NAME | ADDRESS SALE PRICE SF SOLD BUYER SELLER
Tri County Port Union Distribution Center H $20,230,000 345,600 GPT LE Saint Drive Owner LLC US Industrial REIT III Gateway
Tri County Port Union Distribution Center A $14,570,000 479,512 GPT Trade Port Drive Owner LLC US Industrial REIT III Gateway
Tri County 9911 Crescent Park Dr. $14,570,000 49,000 STOCK BROTHERS PROPERTIES LLC -
Tri County Capital Center I Industrial Bldg. I $12,933,475 334,605 G & I IX Interstate III LLC Cabot II OH2W03 W12 LLC
Tri County Capital Center I Distribution Bldg. III $12,228,811 502,041 G & I IX Interstate I LLC Cabot II OH2M01 M04 LLC
Tri County 9696 International Blvd. $11,150,000 277,525 Stag Industrial Holdings LLC Dry Ridge Capital (KY Ltd.)
Tri County 4255 Thunderbird Lane $9,800,000 195,644 Gpt Thunderbird Lane Owner LLC Allen Realty Limited
Source: Xceligent®
S V N | R I C O R E I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T , I N C . | 1 1 5 0 0 N O R T H L A K E D R . | C I N C I N N A T I , O H 4 5 2 4 9 | 5 1 3 - 2 7 2 - 6 8 0 0 | W W W. S V N- R I C O R E . C O M
1,062,712
534,560
45,000
355,000
143,664 23,000
605,664
78,668
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Airport Blue Ash Central/Midtown Florence/Richwood Monroe/Middletown Tri County Hamilton West