vale goes to the bm&f bovespa stock exchange · • philippines accounts for almost all nickel...
TRANSCRIPT
0
Tubarão Port, ES, Brasil
Vale goes to the BM&F Bovespa Stock Exchange
André Figueiredo
August 2016
1
Dis
clai
mer“This presentation may include statements that present
Vale's expectations about future events or results. All
statements, when based upon expectations about the
future and not on historical facts, involve various risks and
uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements
will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include
factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we
operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global
economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals
prices and their dependence on global industrial production,
which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the
markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further
information on factors that may lead to results different from
those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files
with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),
the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the
French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and in
particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking
Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on
Form 20-F.”
2
Agen
da
1. Market dynamics
2. Impact on Vale’s performance
3. Paving the future
3
Market dynamics
4
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
4-Jan 28-Feb 23-Apr 17-Jun 11-Aug
4,000
4,300
4,600
4,900
5,200
4-Jan 28-Feb 23-Apr 17-Jun 11-Aug7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
4-Jan 28-Feb 23-Apr 17-Jun 11-Aug
7580859095
100105110115120125130135
4-Jan 28-Feb 23-Apr 17-Jun 11-Aug
46.4%
56.4%
1.6%
20.2%
Percentual price increase from
Jan 4, 2016 to August 23, 2016
Source: Bloomberg.
US$/t
Iron Ore
Nickel Copper
Metallurgical Coal
Commodities prices increased year to date reflecting a more positive sentiment, mainly in China
5
The positive sentiment is significantly based on the credit expansion in China with a record of bonds’ issuance by the Chinese government
Source: UBS, CEIC.
Share of credit on GDP, % yoy 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Local government bond
Corporate bonds
Off-balance sheet credit
RMB & FX loans
Overall credit
6
Resulting in a greater incentive in fixed asset investment in China, particularly in infrastructure and real state market
Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)
% growth y/y, 3 months moving average
Real estate market
% growth y/y, 3 months moving average
Source: UBS, CEIC.
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total
Infrastructure
Real state
Manufacturing
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Floor space sold
Floor spacestarted
7
Seaborne market1 iron ore supply
In this context, the expectations for Chinese steel production improved, potentially absorbing additional iron ore supply
Crude steel production
Mt Mt
804 796 801 804 807 810
819 816 836 855 878 899
1,623 1,612 1,637 1,659 1,685 1,709
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Steel production ex-China
Chinese steel production
201157
149135 122 1201,610 1,629
1,6831,739 1,750 1,752
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chinese domestic market
Seaborne market of iron ore
1 Seaborne market, including pellets.
Source: World Steel Association and Vale.
8
Demand Drivers
• Recovery of Chinese stainless steel production
China accounts for 40% of global nickel demand
• Nickel total imports grew by 74% 1H16 vs. 1H15
• Reduction of 18% (79 kt) of nickel inventories on
the LME 1H16 vs. 1H15
Chinese stainless steel production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
jan/15 apr/15 jul/15 oct/15 jan/16 apr/16
9%
1H15 1H16
Source: CRU
The nickel market is improving, which should boost our results
Bt
9
Fundamentals are improving in China as demand recovers and
local nickel supply falters
Supply Drivers
Indonesia:
• Export ban
Philippines:
• Philippines accounts for almost all nickel used by
the Chinese NPI industry
• NPI production represents 25% of the nickel
supply in 2016
• New government in Philippines with very strong
environmental policy
• Environmental audit conducted by the
government was responsible for the shutdown of
7 mines, with an estimated reduction of 10%¹ of
the exported volume
Chinese Nickel Pig Iron Production
Source: Wood Mackenzie and Vale (breakdown)
¹ Based on export numbers of 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Philippines supply
Indonesian supply
estimate
ytd
Kt
10
17
114
222
14799
-93
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
1.991 1.981 1.909
2014 2015 2016E
-4%-1%
The nickel market will record a potential deficit¹ in 2016 with lower
global nickel supply
World Nickel Supply
Mt
Supply and Demand Balance1
Kt
1 Supply and demand balance excluding the inventories in the LME and SHFE.
Source: Market analysts (CRU Q3 Outlook; Wood Mackenzie July Short Term Outlook, Wood Mackenzie Q2 Long Term Outlook).
The nickel supply should decrease 4% in 2016, primarily because of the reduction of NPI in China and
because of the increase of uncertainty regarding the nickel ore export industry in the Philippines, which is the
main supplier of nickel to the NPI production
11
Due to favorable arbitrage, inventories have migrated
towards Shanghai Exchange, with total inventories
within the historical range
We expect a surplus in the copper market in 2016,
with a tight market in the following years
In 2016, we expect a surplus in the copper market, with a tight
market in the following years
Source: CRU Copper Outlook Quarterly Report 2Q16, metalprices.com
Global balance in refined copper
Kt
World Copper inventories in Exchanges
Kt
-225
38
-553
-198-31
322 383328
110
-277
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
LME
Comex
Shanghai
12
Impact on Vale’s
performance
13
Despite recent prices increases, commodities’ prices are returning
to its historical level
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016²
Iron ore
Metallurgical coal
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 20102016²
Copper Nickel
1 Nominal prices for 2015 and 2016 and real prices for the previous years.2 Average until August 23rd, 2016.
Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Wood Mackenzie and CRU.
US$/t
Base Metals1 Bulk materials1
14
1 Net of depreciation and amortization.2 Includes SG&A, R&D, Pre-operating and stoppage and other expenses. Does not include gain/loss on sale of assets.3 Positive impact of US$ 244 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1Q13.4 Positive impacts of US$ 230 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1Q15 and US$ 331 million of Asset Retirement
Obligations - ARO).
Our focus and managerial discipline allowed us a substantial
reduction in costs and expenses, despite an increase in volumes
Costs¹
US$ million
Expenses1,2
US$ million
-32%
3,385
1,969
1,534
1,041
707
1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16
-79%
10,887
9,4989,928
8,561
7,368
1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16
3
4
15
3.8
4.9 5.0
2013 2014 2015
299.8319.2 333.4
2013 2014 2015
Iron ore1,2
Nickel Copper3
Coal (Moatize)
260275
291
2013 2014 2015
+11.8%
+11.2%
370 380424
2013 2014 2015
+14.5%
1 Includes iron ore fines, lump, ROM and iron ore feed for Vale’s pellets plants.2 Excludes Samarco’s attributable production.3 Includes Lubambe’s attributable production. 2013 figure include Tres Valles production.
+30.0%Mt Mt
Kt Kt
With the start-up of new projects and an increase in productivity,
we have increased production volumes in different commodities
16
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)
Platts IODEX Iron Ore Price Average (US$/t)
4.1
3.0
2.21.6
2.21.9
1.42.0
2.4
102.6
90.2
74.3
62.458.4 54.9
46.7 48.355.7
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q16 2Q16
The recent price hikes and continuous cost discipline boosted
Vale’s adjusted EBITDA1 in 2Q16
US$ billion, quarterly EBITDA
1 Adjusted EBITDA excludes gains and/or losses on sales of assets and non-recurring expenses and includes dividends received from
non-consolidated affiliates.
2014 2015
EBITDA
41.4 33.1 24.1 25.7 31.8 28.8 23.6 35.1 36.0
17
54.6
50.0
46.9 47.0 47.5
46.1
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
R$/t
-15.6%
1 2015 figures were adjusted to the new allocation criteria, as reported in the 4Q15, and include acquisition costs and third party purchased ore.
.
-7.8%
Iron ore C1¹ cash costs in R$ are falling in a consistent way
18
57.6
39.336.9
32.630.9
28.0 28.5
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16
-51%
Decreasing EBITDA breakeven of iron ore and pellets on a landed
in China basis1
1 Considers: [Cash cost + Royalties + freight + distribution + expenses(SG&A + R&D + pre-operating and stoppage expenses) +
moisture, adjusted for quality and pellets premiums] / [iron ore sales volume (ex ROM)].
US$/t
19
11.7 11.6
9.6
7.9
5.5
4.6 4.6
4.6
4.1
2.9
16.3 16.2
14.2
12.0
8.4
5.5 – 6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E¹
Sustaining
Growth projects
We have been increasing our discipline in capital allocation with
significant reduction in capital expenditures
1 Considers exchange rate of BRL/USD 3.50 - 3.80.
Capex, US$ billion
20
8.16.6
11.6
7.9
0.50.2
Original Budget Total Until 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Logistics
Mine and plant
Mine, plant and logistics
1.6
2.6
9.414.4
19.7
Our biggest growth project – the S11D – will complete most of its
investment in the next 2 years
1 Includes project expenses, that are not capitalized, of US$ 289 million accumulated until 2015, US$ 84 million in2016, US$ 52 million
in 2017, US$ 15 million in 2018 and US$ 5 million in 2019.
²: Exchange rate of R$ 3.80 for the Total Project and for the years 2016-19.
US$ billion
2
21
The S11D project reached significant progress in the mine, plant
and railway until now
S11D Plant – Screening, crushing and patios Status in June 2016
• Combined physical progress of 79%
− 90% of physical progress at the
mine site
− 70% of physical progress at
logistic sites
− 92% of physical progress at the
railway spur
• Cold commissioning on the mine site
initiated
• Duplication of the railway with 54%
physical progress and 243 Km
delivered
• Railway spur connection to EFC
Railway concluded
S11D Logistics – Port offshore
22
The project will function with dry processing and will not need tailings dams
Screening Process Process’ Highlights
• High Fe content and highly homogenous
ore body allows the dry processing, without
any concentration process
• 18,000 MWh of electricity saved every year
(equivalent to a 20,000 inhabitants’ city)
• Lower environmental impact (lower water
consumption and no need for tailings
dams)
• Simpler process reducing capital
investment and sustaining investment,
mainly on tailings dams
23
26,509
27,661 27,508
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
Our debt slightly decreased in 2Q16
Gross Debt
US$ million
Net Debt
Cash position on
June 30, 2016
4,306
29,77331,470 31,814
2Q15 1Q16 2Q16
24
Fixed rate69%
Floating rate31%
US$90%
Other currencies
10%
0.53.2
4.02.9
20.5
31.1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020onwards
GrossDebt
US$ billion
In parallel, we continue to manage our current debt profile
Debt amortization schedule¹ Debt profile, after currencies hedge
1 As of June 30th, 2016.2 Does not include accrued interest
75% of debt maturities after 2019
2
25
Impact on Vale’s
financial results
Resumption of
Samarco’s
operations
• Samarco filed on June 23, 2016 the Environmental Impact Study and the Environment
Impact Report (EIA / RIMA) in the SEMAD1, as part of the licensing process for the
use of exhausted pits for tailings disposal
Environmental
licensing process
The uncertainties on the potential resumption of Samarco’s
operations had an impact on Vale’s financial results
• Vale provisioned R$ 3.7 billion2 in its interim financial statements as of June 30, 2016
• Vale expects to contribute about US$ 150 million to the Foundation in 2H16, with this
amount offset against the abovementioned R$ 3.7 billion provision
• Vale intends to make available, in addition, short-term facilities of up to US$ 100
million to Samarco to support its operations
• Nonetheless, Samarco and its shareholders still expect Samarco to generate a
significant portion of the funds required to meet its obligations as per the Agreement
• Samarco cannot currently make a reliable estimation of how and when its operations
will be resumed, given the current status of the licensing process
• Samarco’s current assessment is that the probability of resuming operations in 2016 is
highly unlikely
1 State Department for Environmental and Sustainable Development of Minas Gerais.2 Equivalent to the present value of its estimated secondary responsibility under the Agreement
26
Paving the future
27
2016 and 2017 will be years for optimizing of our business with
the continuous structural reduction of cost and expenses
Our main priority is to strengthen our balance sheet together
with the increase in our Free Cash Flow
1
2
From the strategic and financial point of view, we are prepared to
face the current uncertainties of our industry
28
1
2
In iron ore, our integrated supply chain offers operational flexibility to maximize margins
Source: Vale
22 mines in 4
production
systems
3 railways and 4
ports in Brazil
12 pelletizing
plants (Brazil
and Oman)
2 DCs and 5
blending ports
29
Turning Vale into the more profitable company in the iron ore
business
US$ billion
Iron ore – EBITDA¹
7.1
4.0
2.83.0
3.8
8.1
6.1
4.1
3.73.4
6.2
4.8
3.5
2.7 2.8
2.4
1.4
1.11.3
1.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16
Vale
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
¹ Para a Vale foi utilizado o EBITDA ajustado do minério de ferro e pelotas (Ex-ROM).
Fonte: Relatórios de Resultados Financeiros de cada empresa
1
2
30
Copper
Coal
Fertilizers
1
2
In copper, coal and fertilizers we will improve our competitive position in the near future
• Completion of the ramp-up of Salobo tapping into a new rich
resource base
• Optimization of copper concentrate production in North Atlantic
operations with revision of our production flowsheet
• The late cycle of the commodity balances Vale’s business
portfolio
• Start-up of the Patrocínio phosphate rock project by 2017 will
generate an additional estimated EBITDA of US$ 80-90
million
• Ramp-up of the Nacala Logistics Corridor will increase our
competitiveness in the coal business, reducing around 60% of
COGS when compared to 2015
• Operational improvements in Mozambique are paving the way
for better results in our coal business
31
• Our discipline in capital allocation will enable a significant
CAPEX reduction from 2015 to 2016
• The portfolio simplification in the range of US$ 4 to 5 billion will
help us improve our cash flow and reduce our leverage
• The execution of the ongoing initiatives will allow a solid cash
generation at any price scenario
2
1
Our main priority is to strengthen our balance sheet together with
the increase in our Free Cash Flow
32
Evaluation of additional transactions,
aiming at reducing net debt by US$ 10
billion
• 3 VLOCS – US$ 269 million
• Goldstream – US$ 823 million
• Coal JV
• 4 VLOCs
• Definition of the future assets portfolio
• Assessment of the value of potential
transactions
• Estimate of the potential debt
reduction associated with potential
transactions
2016
2016 - 2017Asset portfolio simplification,
totaling US$ 4 – 5 billion
2
1
Potential divestments and strategic transactions will help balance
free cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet
Concluded transactions
33
Amount to be
received by Vale
• Approximately US$ 3 billion:
Sale of Vale’s stake in Moatize and Nacala to Mitsui
Reimbursement of capex proportional to Mitsui’s stake, disbursed by Vale
since July 2014
Repayment of the loans granted by Vale to Nacala
Next steps
• Obtain a similar agreement from the government of Malawi
• Sign direct agreements with Project Finance lenders
• Sign inter-government agreements
• Other steps, such as the approval of the amendments on the four concession
agreements of the railway and the port
• Sign finance agreement
• On June 7, the documents related to the railway concession contracts (different
companies) and to the Nacala-à-Velha port were approved by the Mozambique Board
of Ministers
Important milestone
The completion of Nacala’s Project Finance will be an important
step to boost competitiveness in Mozambique2
1
34
Share price recovery from Jan/16
to August 23rd
Vale’s shares appreciate significantly on 2016, detaching from its
main peers
1 Vale 3 (BRL) – amount converted into USD
Source: Bloomberg.
Index, 01/04/16=100
28%
13%
86%
60
110
160
210
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16
Vale 3¹ Peer 1 Peer 2
35
82.4
52.1
2H14 1H16
22.0
12.8
2H14 1H16
EBITDA per ton Ferrous Minerals Vale PN¹
24.6 24.0
2H14 1H16
-41.8%
19.2
12.9
2H14 1H16
-33.1%US$/ton R$
C1 cash costIron ore price Platts 62%
US$/tonUS$
But the recovery of the stock price does not reflect the operational
improvement of the company
.
-36.8%
2.4%
1 VALE 5 share price on the last business day of 2H14 and 1H16.
36
We will be competitive, independently of prices
Sound balance sheet
World-class
assets
Low Capex
Capex and project pipeline optimization
Low sustaining per ton
Low leverage
Long debt maturity
New mines with high
ore grade
Lower costs and
expenses per ton
Modern logistics
infrastructure
Low depletion
37