validation of gcm , and the need of high resolution atmospheric and hydrological model
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Validation of GCM , and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model. Vicente Barros and Mariano Re San José de Costa Rica 28 May 2003. Tributarios. Vientos. Onda de marea. Forcings of the Plata River level. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Validation of GCM, and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model
Vicente Barros and Mariano ReVicente Barros and Mariano Re
San José de Costa RicaSan José de Costa Rica
28 May 200328 May 2003
Forcings of the Plata River level
Tributarios
Onda de marea
Vientos
Tributaries:
-The Plata basin covers 3.2 M. Km²
- Runoff depends on Precipitation and evaporation (Temperature)
- How good are precipitation and temperature scenarios?
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-10PP CSIRO-UDEL -JANUARY (1961-1999) (m m /dy)
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-10PP CSIRO-UDEL -APRIL (1961-1999) (m m /dy)
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PP CSIRO-UDEL -JULY (1961-1999) (m m /dy)
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PP CSIRO-UDEL -OCTOBER (1961-1999) (m m /dy)
PrecipitationClimate minus
simulatedprecipitation
scenarios
Validation of climate models:precipitation
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-10PP HADCM3-UDEL - ANNUAL (1961-1999) (m m /dy)
Difference in Difference in annualannual
precipitation precipitation between between HADCM3 HADCM3
experiment experiment and and
observedobserveddatadata
(mm/day(mm/day)~ 30% less than
observed
Precipitation features (PFs) for 5 x 5 degree boxes Seasonal distribution of during Dec.1997 to Nov.2000 observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar (E. Zipser, G. Mota, and S. Nesbitt, 2002) For more details about PF definition see Nesbitt et al., 2000, J. Climate, 13, 4087-4106.
850850 hPa Circulation Composites - JanuaryhPa Circulation Composites - January
Warm EventsWarm Events Cold Cold EventsEvents
Precipitation is too understimated by GCM: Some physical processes are misrepresented
Difficulties with downscaling andPerturbation techniques
Hope: CRM models
GCM runned with low resolution Do not resolve Meso Convective Systems Do not represent topography
correctly Parameterization of convective activity?
Remote ocean forcing? Frequency and intensity of synoptic perturbations?
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SST at Niño 3.4 from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis
SST at Niño 3.4 from HadCm3 SRES A2 experiment
SST at Niño 3.4 from GFDL SRES A2 experiment
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ETA MODEL EXPERIMENT: Domain and features
Workstation ETAAdapted by M. Pyle (NOAA)
Horizontal resolution: Grid of 1°lat.X 1°long
Vertical: 60 levels Time step: 360 s
Running in aSystem CRAY, Origin 2000.
40 processors
Experiment: 10 years with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
Mean sea level:
IPCC Scenarios
Figure 11.12: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the SRES scenarios.
Figure 11.13: Sea level change in metres over the 21st century resulting from thermal expansion and ocean
circulation changes calculated from AOGCM experiments following the IS92a scenario
Wind effect on water level is not linear
Thus:The mean water level has to be calculated by running the hydrodinamic model forced by instantaneous winds