valuation of exide

8/13/2019 Valuation of Exide

1/10

EXIDE

Historical Actual

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

Revenue 4,344.01 4,824.44 5,774.10

% growth 11% 20%

Gross Profit 3,792.16 4,509.27 5,561.86

Gross Margin % 87% 93% 96%

EBITDA 662.14 990.32 1,062.56

EBITDA Margin % 15% 21% 18%

D&A 71.97 87.53 89.59

% of Revenue 1.7% 1.8% 1.6%

EBIT 590.17 990.32 1,062.56

EBIT Margin % 14% 21% 18%

Interest, Taxes, Other 65.92 21.06 15.72

% of Revenue 2% 0.44% 0.27%

Net Income 3,792.16 4,509.27 5,561.86

Net Income % 87% 93% 96%

Cash and Mkt Sec. 322$ 666$ 1,450$

Total Debt 1,263$ 549$ 549$Interest Expense 53 39 33

Effective Rate 4.2% 7.1% 6.0%

Free Cash Flow Calculation

EBITDA

Less: Income Taxes (30%)

Less: Working Capital -19.5 12.5 64.5 24.5 -119.6

Plus: Deferred Taxes

Less Capex 771 1,080 985 446 441

FCF

Discount Rate

Value

Total 493$


2/10

Terminal Value I

EBITDA 1,683$

Multiple 10.5x

Value 17,675$

PV 14,626$

Total EV 15,119$

Less Debt: (550)

Plus Cash: 1,450

Equity Value 16,019$

Shares Outstanding 754.4

Share Price 21.23$

Terminal Value IIFCF 329$

Growth Rate 3.00%

Discount Rate 6.51%

Value 9,640$

PV 7,978$

Total EV 8,471$

Less Debt: (550)

Plus Cash: 1,450

Equity Value 9,371$

Shares Outstanding 741.1

Share Price 12.64$

Average 16.94$


3/10

Projected Results Assumptions

Mar-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15

5,882.31 7,159.47 8,132$ 9,236$ 10,491$2% 22% 14% 14% 14% 11%

5,417.02 6,622.24 7,509$ 8,528$ 9,687$

92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%

786.45 908.19 1,305$ 1,482$ 1,683$

13% 13% 16% 16% 16% 21%

108.91 122 140$ 158$ 180$

1.9% 1.7% 2% 2% 2%

786.45 908.19 1,165$ 1,324$ 1,503$

13% 13% 16% 14% 14%

14.91 9.06 42$ 48$ 55$

0.25% 0.13% 1% 1% 1%

0%

5,417.02 6,622.24 1,123$ 1,275$ 1,449$

92% 92% 92% 14% 14%

2,051$ 2037

550$ 550$ 550$ 550$ 550$33 33 32 32 32

6.1% 5.9% 6% 5.9% 5.9%

1,305$ 1,482$ 1,683$

369 421 480 33%

352 404 404 404 404

61 61 61 61 Estimate based on historic

532 532 532 532 532

61$ 186$ 329$

1 2 3

6.51% 6.51% 6.51%

57$ 164$ 272$


4/10


5/10

l


6/10

WACC

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Source

Risk Free Rate 0.06% T-bill

Market Premium 5.00% Historical Data + forecasted surveyMarket Beta 1.3 Historical

Beta * MP 6.50%

Cost of Equity 6.56%

Cost of Debt

Effective Rate 5.9%

Cost of Debt 5.9%

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Estimated Equity 30,160$

Estimated Debt 550

% of Equity 98%

% of Debt 2%

Tax Rate 33%

Debt Cost 0.07%

Equity Cost 6.44%

WACC 6.51%


7/10

FY13 Projections

NMIMS Actual Var (%)

Revenue 14,762$ 14,892$ 0.9%

Operating Income 2,362$ 2,459$ 4.1%

Net Income 1,682$ 1,721$ 2.3%


8/10

852.14 744.99 960.92 983.22 585.28

Sales Turnover 7,159.47 PBDIT 908.19 786.45 1,062.56 990.32

Excise Duty 779.98 Interest 9.06 14.91 15.72 21.06

Net Sales 6,379.49 PBDT 899.13 771.54 1,046.84 969.26

Other Income 56.05 Depreciation 122 108.91 89.59 87.53

StockAdjustments

186.7 Other Written Off 0 0 0 0

Total Income 6,622.24 Profit Before Tax 777.13 662.63 957.25 881.73

Extra-ordinary items 786.19 677.54 972.97 902.79

Raw Materials 4,347.40 PBT (Post Extra-ord

Items) 777.13 662.63 957.25 881.73

Power & Fuel

Cost

261.19 Tax 237.13 197.94 297.73 300.85

Employee Cost 403.17 Reported Net Profit 540 464.69 659.52 580.88

Other

Manufacturing

Expenses

145.94 Minority Interest 490.19 430.67 492.63 496.97

Selling and

Admin Expenses 0 0 822.36 730.49 636.04

Miscellaneous

Expenses 556.35 410.59 21.19 27.55 24.76

Preoperative Exp

Capitalised 0 0 0 0 0

Total Expenses 5,714.05 4,630.57 4,499.30 3,518.95 3,201.99

ncome

Expenditure


9/10

590.17

65.92

524.25

71.97

0

452.28

518.2

452.28

157.89

294.39

367.75


10/10

Sales Turnover 7,159.47 5,882.31 5,774.10 4,824.44 4,344.01

Excise Duty 779.98 553.04 485.84 401.53 553.17

Net Sales 6,379.49 5,329.27 5,288.26 4,422.91 3,790.84

Other Income 56.05 41.46 101.64 7.1 4.89

Stock Adjustments 186.7 46.29 171.96 79.26 -3.57

Total Income 6,622.24 5,417.02 5,561.86 4,509.27 3,792.16

Raw Materials 4,347.40 3,572.99 3,073.27 2,309.07 2,179.38

Power & Fuel Cost 261.19 213 188.24 152.14 129.28

Employee Cost 403.17 330.38 320.97 261.24 201.08

Other Manufacturing

Expenses 145.94 103.61 73.27 38.46 31.45

Selling and Admin

Expenses 0 0 822.36 730.49 636.04

Miscellaneous

Expenses 556.35 410.59 21.19 27.55 24.76

Preoperative Exp

Capitalised 0 0 0 0 0

Total Expenses 5,714.05 4,630.57 4,499.30 3,518.95 3,201.99

ncome

Expenditure

valuation of exide

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