value-based transmission investment and operations...value-based transmission investment and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Value-based Transmission Investment and Operations
Marija Ilic [email protected]
Invited Panel, IEEE PES 2014
Washington DC
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Outline
• The evolving role of on-line T&D management
• Basic definition of an optimal grid
• Valuing transmission value –an example [1]
• Valuing flexible transmission in systems with intermittent resources [2]
2
[1] Yoon, Y. T., "Electric Power Network Economics: Designing Principles for a For-Profit
Independent Transmission Company and Underlying Architectures for Reliability”, PhD
thesis, June 2001, EECS, MIT (thesis advisor: M. Ilic)
[2] C. Tee and M. Ilic, "Optimal Investment Decisions in Transmission Expansion," in
Proceedings of the 44th North American Power Symposium, Urbana-Champaign, 2012
.
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The evolving role of on-line T&D management
• T&D as the enabler of T&D users’ (generation and demand) needs
• Time-varying needs require dynamic adjustments of T&D resources to maximize the ATC for least constraining delivery
• Examples of thermally- and voltage-limited ATC delivery (steady state; non-time critical congestion); key role of T&D grid optimization
• Examples of small signal- and transient stability-limited ATC (dynamic; time critical); key role of automation
• GROWING ROLE OF ON-LINE INFORMATION PROCESSING
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Optimal grid for congestion relief
• Hard to design T&D grid ``optimally” because conditions vary; need to rely on T&D management to optimize use of existing asset capacity
• ``optimal grid”—any grid design break-even point between the incremental capital cost and annual cumulative cost of unserved/expensive power delivery
• Becoming possible to utilize T&D assets more ``optimally”; new technologies provide shorter-term solutions/lower risks than large capital investments;
• The challenge—framework to use new technologies; hardware limits (thermal) and systems limits (voltage, stability) can be co-optimized
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Transmission Congestion
Bus 1
Bus 2
PL = 100 MW
Marginal Cost = 30 $/MWh Marginal Cost =
10 $/MWh
• Some Causes: • Thermal limit of the line • Voltage drop in the line
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Causes of Transmission Congestion: Thermal Limits of Lines
• Determined by the conductor’s material properties and the weather
• The higher the voltage, the greater the thermal limit
• If exceeded, can harm line
Voltage (kV) Rating (MW) With DLRs
230 400 420
345 1200 1270
500 2600 2550
765 5400 5800
1100 24000 24500 [1]
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Short-term value of relieving congestion
• Reliability
• Economic Value
Value of New Transmission Capacity = (MC2 – MC1) * Additional Power Flow
Bus 1 Bus 2
PL = 100 MW
Marginal Cost = 30 $/MWh
Marginal Cost = 10 $/MWh
Transmission Limit After Upgrade/ON-LINE DLR
Transmission Limit Before Upgrade
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Optimal Grid for Congestion Relief—Value vs Cost
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Summary of Charges
In Millions In 100,000
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Motivation for valuing flexible transmission in systems with intermittent resources
• Increased variability and intermittency in the power system due to: – Renewable energy integration – Distributed generation and load resources
• Greater variety of technologies that can supplement
conventional AC transmission lines: – Flexible AC Transmission System Devices (FACTS) – Controllable DC Lines
• How do we value the flexibility provided by flexible
transmission devices in making investment decisions?
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Flexibility in Transmission
• Operational Flexibility: – Is the operational capability of the system flexible enough to
efficiently and effectively manage a variety of short-run system conditions and uncertainties?
• Investment Flexibility
– Is the long-run investment plan for the system flexible enough to efficiently adapt to changes in long-run system conditions and forecasts?
• Institutional Flexibility – Is the regulatory and market framework flexible enough to
accommodate and incentivize a wide variety of currently available and future technology?
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Overview of Case Studies
• Two key questions answered: – What is the optimal investment in flexible transmission devices
considering the value of short-run operational flexibility? – What is the value of long-run investment flexibility that can be
brought about by flexible transmission devices?
• General framework demonstrated using simple 3-bus examples
• Technology considered: Thyristor-Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) – Control real power flow in system by changing reactance in the line – Better utilize existing transmission capacity – Case studies demonstrates: Value of TCSC in providing short-run
operational flexibility and long-run investment flexibility
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INVESTMENTS IN TCSC AND SHORT-RUN OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY What is the optimal investment in TCSC considering the value of short-run operational flexibility?
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Optimal Investment Model (Minimize Operational and
Investment Cost)
(DC Power Flow and
Thermal Line Constraints)
(Line Investment Min)
(Power Balance in System)
(Power Injection Min/Max)
(TCSC Investment Min/Max)
(TCSC Operational Range)
Optimality Conditions for Investments in TCSC:
Marginal Cost of
Investment
Cumulative Sum of
the Additional
Congestion Rent
Brought About by
TCSC
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Base Case Test System and Parameters
Technology Scaled and Annualized
Investment Cost
New Line Capacity $20 thousand per MW
New TCSC Capacity $20 million per p.u. flexible reactance
Load Profile:
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Results: Optimal Investments With and Without Wind
Case Optimal Investment Decision
Investment Cost
($ thousand)
Savings in Operational Cost ($ million)
(1) No Wind 22.5 MW of New Line Capacity at Line 2
450 1.6
(2) With Wind
0.0025 pu of Flexible Reactance at Line 1
50 0.12
S
S
COSTG1=
$100/MWh
COSTG2=
$300/MWh
Xbase,1= j0.01 pu
Kbase,1=150MW
S
COSTG3=
$400/MWh
Lower Load
Xbase,2= j0.02 pu
Kbase,2=122.5MW
Xbase,2= j0.03 pu
Kbase,2=100MW
Higher Load
Line 1 Line 2
Line 3
COSTG1=
$100/MWh
S
S
COSTG2=
$300/MWh
Xbase,1= j0.01 pu
Kbase,1=150MW
S
COSTG3=
$400/MWh
Lower Load
Xbase,2= j0.02 pu
Kbase,2=100MW
Xbase,2= j0.03 pu
Kbase,2=100MW
Higher
Load
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
No wind: With wind:
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Results: Different Investment Scenarios with Wind Scenarios Optimal Investment
Decision Investment
Cost ($ thousand)
Operational Cost ($ million)
(a) No Investment - - 6.5
(b) New Line Capacity
4.6 MW of New Line Capacity at Line 2
92 6.4
(c) New TCSC/Line Capacity
0.0025 pu of Flexible Reactance at Line 1
50 6.3
Scenarios Percentage of Time Congested (%)
Line 1 Line 2 Line 3
(a) No Investment 1.3 24 0
(b) New Line Capacity 3.7 0 0
(c) New TCSC/Line Capacity 17 25 0
Policy question: Should we redefine what it means to “relieve
congestion”? 22
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Conclusion and Future Work • Possible to have a general framework to evaluate how flexible
transmission devices add value to a system particularly in system with high renewable resources
• Future work: – What kind of tools do we need to apply proposed methods to
larger system and models with stochasticity? • Decomposition approaches, dynamic programming with
heuristics, Markov modeling etc. – How do we develop institutional flexibility?
• Market and regulatory design • Centralized vs decentralized planning approaches • Multi-time scale contracts for distributed risk management • What do we really mean when we want to “relieve congestion”?
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