value destruction. q4 2008 - bionest...
TRANSCRIPT
Contact:[email protected]
Bionest Partners19 rue du Général Foy75008 ParisFranceTel: +33 1 58 05 14 00
Tower 49, 12th floor12 East 49th StreetNew York, NY 10017 USATel: +1 (646) 386 2900
Frédéric Desdouits
Managing Partner
Georges-David Medina
Partner
Catherine Pichereau
Manager
Rodolphe Journoud
Associate
Thomas Ranson
Associate
Louis Labriffe
Analyst
Myriam Makhloufi
Analyst
Contact:[email protected]
Value Destruction.
Q4 2008
► Research-based Companies Valuation
Valuation plunged in 2008 but in anti-infective
► Initial Public Offerings
“Waterloo morne plaine”
► Follow-on Offerings
Market shut down even in the USA
► Equity Indices and Sub-Sector Trackers
Biotech indexes are surprisingly robust
Equity MarketsPages 2 to 5
Mergers & Acquisitions in Biotech
► Transactions
Americans buy American
► Partnerships at and above $100m
Strong value in early stage deals
Page 6 & 7
► Venture Capital
Medical device is hot
► Buy Outs
Smaller deals but healthcare sector still active
Private Equity ActivityPage 8 & 9
Page 10
► We bring high quality financial services to the healthcare industry
Bionest Selected Completed Transactions
Financia
l Adviso
ry News
letter
0
5
10
15
20
25
524946434037343128252219161310741
# of 08 Weeks
Point Value in EURm
EU & US EU US
Research-based Companies Valuation
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 2 of 10
Equity Markets
Global Overview
EU vs. US – All Therapeutic Areas EU & US – Breakdown by Therapeutic Area
Regional
What is Bionest MPVTM?
► Bionest MPV™ (Market Pipeline Value) is a proprietary
benchmarking approach that compares the value of 200
research-based, mainly loss making, publicly listed
companies in Europe and in the United States
► Bionest MPVTM is based on a pipeline scoring system and the
value of publicly traded companies
► This approach allows to quickly assess the value of a clinical-
stage portfolio of products with a limited amount of information
Regional & Therapeutic Historical Breakdown
* Based on Bionest's proprietary scoring system Note: Bubble size represents the number of companies
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
► In 2008, pipelines have slightly shrunk in particular in oncology
► Valuations have plunged but in the anti-infectious area
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
► Global downturn except the anti-infectious area which increased in the US
Bionest MPV™ Universe
Therapeutic Area
Cancer
38%
Neurology
16%
Anti-Infectious
14%
Cardiovascular
13%
Inflammatory &
Autoimmune
12%
Vaccines
5%
Others
2%
137
52
0
100
200
300
400
0 10 20 30 40
Average Pipeline Size (*)
Average MPV in EURm
US
EU
+23%
+18%
144
54
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
5
10
15
20
25
524946434037343128252219161310741
# of 08 Weeks
Point Value in EURm
Vaccines Cardiovascular Neurology
Infl. & Autoimmune Anti-Infectious Cancer
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
-32%
-36%
-31%
-19%
+11%
-41%-41%
-28%-34%
1Q08
4Q08
25
29
11 8427
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Average Pipeline Size (*)
Average MPV in EURm
2429
2611
34
7934
2
52
5
1Q08
4Q08
234
277
135
430
221
388
106
641
469
749
37
360
61
94%28%
30%
31%
55%
64%
50%
82%
77%
55%
100%
72%
100%
70%
69%
45%
36%
50%
100%
18%
100%
23%
45%
19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1Q05 2Q053Q054Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q07 2Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q08
Cumulative Amount Raised
Bars - in EURm
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Last 12 Months Cumulative Amount Raised
Lines - in EURm
3
5
1
8
65
10
5 5
3
12
4
2
4
2
5
5
2
6
8
10
2
7
1
7 7
5
10
5
11
7
16
13
15
2
10
2 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Number of IPOs
Bars
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Last 12 Months Cumulative Number of IPOs
Lines
Genfit
Alternext
Cytotools
Frankfurt
4SC
Frankfurt Zurich
NorDiag
Oslo Copenhagen
BioAlliance Wilex
Euronext Euronext Frankfurt
Prostrakan Ipsen Bioxell AlphaHelix Santhera Vita 34 Vivalis
London Euronext Zurich Stockholm Zurich Frankfurt Euronext
Topotarget Exonhit Curalogic Biovitrum Innate Tigenix AMT
Copenhagen Alternext Copenhagen Stockholm Euronext Euronext Euronext
Ardana Devgen NascaCell Genovis Biofrontera Cosmo Exiqon Hybrigenics
London Euronext Oslo Frankfurt Stockholm Frankfurt Zurich Copenhagen Alternext
Intercell Arpida Orexo Geneart Liponova Algeta Addex Merrion PCI Biotech
Vienna Zurich Stockholm Frankfurt Oslo Frankfurt Oslo Zurich Dublin Oslo
Paion Galapagos Speedel Jerini Renovo OctoPlus Cellectis GenOway MolMed Ipsogen
Frankfurt Euronext Zurich Frankfurt London Euronext Euronext Alternext Alternext Euronext Milan Alternext
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
Biotec
Pharmacon
Onco
Methylome
Newron Pharma
Lifecycle
Pharma
AblynxThrombo-
genics
Clavis
Pharma
3Q08 4Q08
Initial Public Offerings
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 3 of 10
Equity Markets
Cumulative Amount Raised and Number of IPOs
European Biotech Listings
FY 2008 IPO Focus: Nothing new since Q2, except withdraws
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Note: in Europe and in the USA
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
EU vs. US – Amount Raised EU vs. US – Number of IPOs
US EUUS EU
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Company Country
Company Name
Trading Place
� How to read it?
Alternext
Eurolist A
Eurolist B
Eurolist C
Other Exchanges
Companies listed in 2008 16 withdrawn IPOs during 2008
Follow-On Offerings
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 4 of 10
Equity Markets
Europe
United States
FY 2008 Follow-On Focus: Nothing happened in Q4
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
0
53
0
150
55
99
0 0 0
3526
0
1116
253
4
1
11
2
4
1
2
1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Amount Raised
Bars - in EURm
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Last 12 Months Cumulative Amount Raised
Lines - in EURm
735 709
1039
771
1950
467
1062
537
941
707
468
693
377
537
0
14 10
16
16
12
11
11
9
20
17
11
7
7
2
4
640
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Amount Raised
Bars - in EURm
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Last 12 Months Cumulative Amount Raised
Lines - in EURm
2008 EU Operations 2008 US Operations
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
Rebased Perform
ance
European Biotech (Abs.)
European Biotech (Rel. to Stoxx Pharma)
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
Absolute Perform
ance
Bionest Animal Health (Rel. to Pharma S&P 500)
Bionest Animal Health (Abs.)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
Rel. Perf. to Nasdaq Biotech
Bionest Vaccines Bionest Inf. and Autoimmune
Bionest Cancer Bionest Neurology
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
Absolute Perform
ance
Bionest Vaccines Bionest Inf. and Autoimmune
Bionest Cancer Bionest Neurology
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
US Pharma S&P 500 (Abs.)
US Pharma S&P 500 (Rel. to S&P 500)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08
EUR Pharma Stoxx (Abs.)
EUR Pharma Stoxx (Rel. to Stoxx)
Equity Indices and Sub-Sector Trackers
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 5 of 10
Equity Markets
Pharmaceutical Sector Absolute & Relative Performance
Bionest Therapeutic Trackers
European Pharmaceutical Sector Performance
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
EU Pharmaceutical Sector Performance US Pharmaceutical Sector Performance
Absolute Performance Relative Performance to Nasdaq Biotech
Animal Health Sector Performance Biotech Sector Performance
► Defensive sector for sure
► Converging performances
► Even the long visibility Animal Health sector is impacted
► Biotech are surprisingly robust
+21%
-21%
+45%
-17%
-25%
-27%
-31%
-34%
-18%
-19%
-20%
-25%
-31%
-44%
-14%
-24%
1
4
4
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Deal Size
EURbn
15
18
12
19
0
400
800
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Deal Size
EURm
19
30
24 25
7
626
34 34
31410
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Number of Deals
Transactions
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 6 of 10
M&A in Biotech
Global Overview: Toward More Smaller Deals
Deal Split per Size
Major European Operations
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones, MergermarketNote: Numbers on the top indicate the number of transactions
Note: Numbers on the top indicate the number of transactions
Disclosed transactions only
Undisclosed Deals
Disclosed Deals
Corporate deals worldwide in the pharma/biotech industryScope of our Analysis
Deals < €100m Deals > €500mDeals €100 < 500m
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones, Mergermarket
Targets Localization vs. Acquirers Region
US EU RoWIn % of deals volume
2
16
96
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Deal Value
EURbn
Roche/
Genentech
Deal
3
8
8
5
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
2 800
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Deal Size
EURm
RoW AcquirorsEuropean AcquirorsNorth American Acquirors
sanofi-aventis acquisitions in 2008 Roche – Genentech
► sanofi-aventis extended its generic capabilities by
acquiring more than 95% of the Czech company
Zentiva for CZK 1150 (approx EUR 43.2) per action
► Additional acquisition included Acambis (GBP
276m) and Symbion consumer (AUD 560m)
► Roche acquired Genentech on 12 march 2009 for
USD 95 per share in cash, or a total payment of
approx USD 46.8 billion
► Roche initiated an unsolicited offer on the 44% of
Genentech it didn't already own in July 2008, at
USD 89 per share, representing approx USD 43.7
billion
9%
51%
40%
69%
6%
25%
85%
6%9%
Target Location:
Note: Numbers on the top indicate the number of transactions; One deal therapeutic area not disclosed in Q3
Disclosed partnerships only with deal values equal to $100m or above
Partnerships at and above $100m
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 7 of 10
Global Overview
Partnerships by Development Phase
Partnerships by Therapeutic Area
► Date 12/12/2008
► Acquirer Bristol-Myers Squibb
► Target Exelixis
► Dealed Product XL-184 & XL-281
► Status Phase III & Phase I
► Area Cancer
► Deal Value €640m
Global collaboration covering two
novel anti-cancer small molecules, XL-
184 and XL-281, respectively for
medullary thyroid cancer and
advanced solid tumor malignancies
Top Story Focus
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones, Recombinant Capital
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones, Recombinant Capital
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones, Recombinant Capital
Note: Numbers on the top indicate the number of partnerships
Disclosed partnerships only with deal values equal to $100m or above
Note: Numbers on the top indicate the number of transactions; Two deal phases not disclosed in Q3
Disclosed partnerships only with deal values equal to $100m or above
M&A in Biotech
Biotech or pharma product transaction between global parties, for which the terms are disclosed, with a total deal value reaching $100m at least
Scope of our Analysis
► Big money in discovery and preclinical
► Performance in value for CNS and Inflammatory & Autoimmune, in volume for Cancer
280304
360423
313
208253
371
21
25
1919
2625
18
28
0
100
200
300
400
500
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Average Deal Size in EURm
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Number of Deals
99
265222
508
689
306
141
372
147
202
85
376
189
132
409
194
292
375
183
87
335
119
373
795
264
646
299
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Anti-Infectious Cancer Cardiovascular CNS Dermatology Gastrointestinal Gynaecology Inflammatory &Autoimmune
Metabolic Ophthalmology Respiratory &Allergy
Other
Average Deal Value in EURm
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408
4
32
4
6
1
25
2
135
1
1
0
4 4 4 1 1 3 10 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 41 3 2 7 3 5 2 3 2 1 1 7
113
463
113
254
430469
196173
463
151
315
163
361
215
97113
163161
86
493
212181
485
115
427
232
119
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
MarketedApprovedFiledPhase IIIPhase II/IIIPhase IIPhase I/IIPhase IPreclinicalDiscovery
Average Deal Value in EURm
Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408
7 3 5 2 4 1 4 5 2 4 1 1 1 1 24 5 2 5 3 3 1 4 8 2 1 1
Last Quarter Variation
Private Fund Raisings in Europe
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 8 of 10
Private Markets
Cumulative Amount Raised...
... per Development Stage
... per Selected Therapeutic Focus
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Sources: Bionest Research, FactSet, BioCentury, Dowjones
Last Quarter Variation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Last 12 Months Cumulative Amount Raised
in EURm
PC Ph I Ph II Ph III Mkt
-12%
-20%
-48%
+21%
-35%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Last 12 Months Cumulative Amount Raised
in EURm
Autoimmune Diseases CNS Inflamation Vaccine Medical Devices
+0%
+171%
-3%
+5%
+32%
293
164
257
197
176
148
205
305
252 246
296 295
315
143
208
190
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Cumulative Amount Raised by Quarter
Bars - in EURm
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
12 Months Cumulative Deal Value
Lines - in EURm
Buy Out Transactions in EuropePrivate Markets
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 9 of 10
Global Overview of Q4 08 Buy Out Healthcare Transactions
Total Buy Out Deals vs. Healthcare Deals
2008 Healthcare Sector Distribution (Number of Deals)
Value of Deals Number of Deals Average Size of Deals
Target Company Sub Sector Value €m Target Country Acquirer
Generis Farmaceutica S.A. Pharmaceuticals 250 Portugal Magnum Capital Industrial Partners
Danfysik ACP A/S Medical Equipment 9 Denmark CapMan Technology
Sorin Group SpA Medical Equipment 17 Italy CID Investimenti S.r.l.
Flight Ambulance International Rent-A-Jet AG
Medical Equipment 15 Germany Marfin Investment Group Holdings S.A.
Bellco Srl Healthcare Provider 15 Italy Argos Soditic
Q-MED AB Medical Equipment 374 Sweden Ivytan AB
Avantium Technologies Healthcare Provider 18 NetherlandsCapricorn Ventures / ING Corp. Invt / AescapVenture / Navitas Capital
Biomnis Healthcare Provider 217 France Duke Street
SuperSonic Imagine Healthcare Provider 20 FranceNBGI PE / Crédit Agricole PE / Auriga / Edmond de Rothschild IP/ Bioam
Apitope Technology Pharmaceuticals 10 UK Limburgse Reconversie / Vesalius / Vinnof
Nurminem Logistics Oy Healthcare Provider 8 Finland Sentica Partners Oy
Cenexi SAS Pharmaceuticals 40 France Phinex
Carewatch Care services Ltd Healthcare Provider 47 UK Lyceum Capital
Veris Polska sp. Z Pharmaceuticals ND Poland Penta Investments
Total Q4 (1 deal undisclosed) 1040
Q4 Average Deal Amount (1 deal undisclosed) 80
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
2 2 1 1
22 23
16
6
10%
7%
8%
17%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
in EUR bn
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Proportion of the healthcare deals
Healthcare Sector Other Sectors Healthcare proportion Healthcare Sector Other Sectors Healthcare proportion
229 14 14
139 167 152
61
16%
5%
9%
23%
0
50
100
150
200
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Proportion of the healthcare deals
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Healthcare Provider65%
Pharmaceuticals21%
Medical Equipment14%
Healthcare Provider56%Pharmaceuticals
22%
Medical Equipment22%
Healthcare Provider41%
Pharmaceuticals18%
Medical Equipment36%
Medical Supplies5%
14 deals
22 deals
Q4 2008
14 deals
Healthcare Provider42%
Pharmaceuticals29%
Medical Equipment29%
9 deals
9380
149 142
102127
255
134
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008
in EUR m
All sectors Healthcare sector
Sources : Bionest Research, Private Equity Insight, Merger Market
This publication has been prepared by Bionest Partners (19 rue du Général Foy – Paris, France) and is provided solely for the information of the recipients who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information herein is not intended as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but Bionest Partners makes no representation as to its relevance, accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. As a result, Bionest Partners accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
This report shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior consent of Bionest Partners.
All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgement of Bionest Partners on the date of this report and are subject to modifications without notice. Any investments referred to herein may involve significant risks and are not necessarily available in all jurisdictions, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of, or income from, any securities referred to herein may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors are expected to make their own investment decisions without relying on this publication. Only investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial and business matters to evaluate the relevant merits and risks should consider an investment in any issuer or market discussed herein.
The information contained in this publication is not available to a person who would be categorized as a private customer under the rules of the FSA. To the extent that any securities, or any broker-dealer, investment adviser or other services, are deemed to be offered herein for purposes of U.S. law, such securities or services are not being offered in the United States or to U.S. persons absent from an exemption under applicable U.S. law. This report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, U.S. persons without such an exemption.
Bionest Partners: (a) may have managed or co-managed a public offering of the subject companies securities in the past 12 months; (b) may have received compensation for investment banking services from the subject companies in the past 12 months; and (c) expect to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject companies in the next 6 months.
Disclaimer
Contact:[email protected]
December 2008Page 10 of 10
Selected Bionest Financial Advisory Completed Transactions
2008
Has been acquired
by
Sole Advisor
2008
Sole Advisor
Tier 1 Private Equity Fund
Commercial Due Diligence
for
2008
Has Out-licensed
Research L-Asparaginase
to
Sole Advisor
2008
Sole Advisor
Has Out-licensed
Preclinical OP-R003
to
2007
Has Sold Ginkor Fort
to
Sole Advisor
2006
Co-Advisor
Raised €15m
Listed on Alternext
2008
Oncology
-
Assessment of
Product Franchise
Sole Advisor
Selected Bionest Transaction Services Assignments
2007
Commercial Due Diligence
for
Co Advisor
2006
Sole Advisor
Has been acquired
by
2008
Has Divested
MAb Research Business
to
Sole Advisor
2008
Oncology
(Financing Round)
2008
Mature Products
(Financing Round)
Corporate
Valuation
Corporate
Valuation