value judgements in multidimensional poverty measurement ... · methodology m ka =(ρ k,ma)...
TRANSCRIPT
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Value Judgements in Multidimensional
Poverty Measurement Design
Sabina Alkire, Jose Manuel Roche and Maria Emma Santos
OPHI Workshop, Oxford, 28 June 2012
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Two parts:
• Measurement methodology
• Value Judgements
– Constraints
– Complementary Analyses
– Uncertainty/Incompleteness
– Authority
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Measurement methodology
• Why focus on a particular method? – Focused discussion
– Actual examples
– Practical Benefits
– Clarity
And note:
– Relevance to other methods during field-building
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Multidimensional Poverty- our challenge:
• A government would like to create an official
multidimensional poverty indicator
• Desiderata
– It must understandable and easy to describe
– It must conform to “common sense” notions of poverty
– It must be able to target the poor, track changes, and guide
policy.
– It must be technically solid
– It must be operationally viable
– It must be easily replicable
• What would you advise?
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Methodology
• Identification – Dual cutoffs
• Aggregation – Adjusted FGT
• All value judgements are assumed given for now:
– Purpose, Dimensions, Indicators, Cutoffs, Weights/Values etc
• Today we focus on one measure M0, which can be used with ordinal, categorical, binary, or cardinal data. It has been used extensively, for practical reasons.
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Review: Unidimensional Poverty
Variable – income
Identification – poverty line
Aggregation – Foster-Greer-Thorbecke ’84
Example Incomes = (7,3,4,8) poverty line z = 5
Deprivation vector g0 = (0,1,1,0)
Headcount ratio P0 = m(g0) = 2/4
Normalized gap vector g1 = (0, 2/5, 1/5, 0)
Poverty gap = P1 = m(g1) = 3/20
Squared gap vector g2 = (0, 4/25, 1/25, 0)
FGT Measure = P2 = m(g2) = 5/100
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Multidimensional Data
Matrix of well-being scores for n persons in d domains
Domains
Persons
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Multidimensional Data
Matrix of well-being scores for n persons in d domains
Domains
Persons
z ( 13 12 3 1) Cutoffs
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Deprivation Matrix
Replace entries: 1 if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Deprivation Matrix
Replace entries: 1 if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
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Normalized Gap Matrix
Normalized gap = (zj - yji)/zj if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
z ( 13 12 3 1) Cutoffs
These entries fall below cutoffs
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Normalized Gap Matrix
Normalized gap = (zj - yji)/zj if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
g1
0 0 0 0
0 0.42 0 1
0.04 0.17 0.67 1
0 0.08 0 0
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Squared Gap Matrix
Squared gap = [(zj - yji)/zj]2 if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
g1
0 0 0 0
0 0.42 0 1
0.04 0.17 0.67 1
0 0.08 0 0
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Squared Gap Matrix
Squared gap = [(zj - yji)/zj]2 if deprived, 0 if not deprived
Domains
Persons
g2
0 0 0 0
0 0.176 0 1
0.002 0.029 0.449 1
0 0.006 0 0
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Identification
Domains
Persons
Matrix of deprivations
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
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Identification – Counting Deprivations
Domains c
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Identification – Counting Deprivations
Q/ Who is poor?
Domains c
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Identification – Dual Cutoff Approach
Q/ Who is poor?
A/ Fix cutoff k, identify as poor if ci > k
Domains c
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Identification – Dual Cutoff Approach
Q/ Who is poor?
A/ Fix cutoff k, identify as poor if ci > k (Ex: k = 2)
Domains c
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Identification – Dual Cutoff Approach
Q/ Who is poor?
A/ Fix cutoff k, identify as poor if ci > k (Ex: k = 2)
Domains c
Persons
Note Includes both union (k = 1) and intersection (k = d)
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Identification – The problem empirically
k = H
Union 1 91.2%
2 75.5%
3 54.4%
4 33.3%
5 16.5%
6 6.3%
7 1.5%
8 0.2%
9 0.0%
Inters. 10 0.0%
Poverty in India for
10 dimensions:
91% of population
would be targeted
using union,
0% using intersection
Need something in
the middle. (Alkire and Seth 2009)
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Aggregation
Censor data of nonpoor
Domains c
Persons
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
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Aggregation
Censor data of nonpoor
Domains c(k)
Persons
Similarly for g1(k), etc
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
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Aggregation – Headcount Ratio
Domains c(k)
Persons
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
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Aggregation – Headcount Ratio
Domains c(k)
Persons
Two poor persons out of four: H = 1/2
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
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Critique
Suppose the number of deprivations rises for person 2
Domains c(k)
Persons
Two poor persons out of four: H = 1/2
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
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Critique
Suppose the number of deprivations rises for person 2
Domains c(k)
Persons
Two poor persons out of four: H = 1/2
0
4
3
0
0000
1111
1011
0000
)(0
kg
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Critique
Suppose the number of deprivations rises for person 2
Domains c(k)
Persons
Two poor persons out of four: H = 1/2
No change!
Violates ‘dimensional monotonicity’
0
4
3
0
0000
1111
1011
0000
)(0
kg
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Aggregation
Return to the original matrix
Domains c(k)
Persons
0
4
3
0
0000
1111
1011
0000
)(0
kg
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Aggregation
Return to the original matrix
Domains c(k)
Persons
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
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Aggregation
Need to augment information deprivation shares among poor
Domains c(k) c(k)/d
Persons
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
2 / 4
4 / 4
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Aggregation
Need to augment information deprivation shares among poor
Domains c(k) c(k)/d
Persons
A = average deprivation share among poor = 3/4
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
2 / 4
4 / 4
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Aggregation – Adjusted Headcount Ratio
Adjusted Headcount Ratio = M0 = HA
Domains c(k) c(k)/d
Persons
A = average deprivation share among poor = 3/4
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
2 / 4
4 / 4
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Aggregation – Adjusted Headcount Ratio
Adjusted Headcount Ratio = M0 = HA = m(g0(k))
Domains c(k) c(k)/d
Persons
A = average deprivation share among poor = 3/4
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
2 / 4
4 / 4
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Aggregation – Adjusted Headcount Ratio
Adjusted Headcount Ratio = M0 = HA = m(g0(k)) = 6/16 = .375
Domains c(k) c(k)/d
Persons
A = average deprivation share among poor = 3/4
g0(k)
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0
0
2
4
0
2 / 4
4 / 4
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Aggregation: Adjusted Poverty Gap
Adjusted Poverty Gap = M1 = M0G = HAG
Domains
Persons
Average gap across all deprived dimensions of the poor:
G/
g1 (k)
0 0 0 0
0 0.42 0 1
0.04 0.17 0.67 1
0 0 0 0
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Aggregation: Adjusted Poverty Gap
Adjusted Poverty Gap = M1 = M0G = HAG = m(g1(k))
Domains
Persons
Obviously, if in a deprived dimension, a poor person becomes
even more deprived, then M1 will rise.
Satisfies monotonicity
g1 (k)
0 0 0 0
0 0.42 0 1
0.04 0.17 0.67 1
0 0 0 0
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Aggregation: Adjusted FGT
Consider the matrix of squared gaps
Domains
Persons
g2(k)
0 0 0 0
0 0.422 0 12
0.042 0.172 0.672 12
0 0 0 0
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Aggregation: Adjusted FGT
Adjusted FGT is M = m(g(k))
Domains
Persons
Satisfies transfer axiom
g2(k)
0 0 0 0
0 0.422 0 12
0.042 0.172 0.672 12
0 0 0 0
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Aggregation: Adjusted FGT Family
Adjusted FGT is Ma = m(ga(t)) for a > 0
Domains
Persons
Theorem 1 For any given weighting vector and cutoffs, the
methodology Mka =(ρk,Ma) satisfies: decomposability,
replication invariance, symmetry, poverty and deprivation
focus, weak and dimensional monotonicity, nontriviality,
normalisation, and weak rearrangement for a>0;
monotonicity for a>0; and weak transfer
for a>1.
ga (k)
0 0 0 0
0 0.42a 0 1a
0.04a 0.17a 0.67a 1a
0 0 0 0
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International MPI
National Poverty
Mexico, Colombia
Well-being
Bhutan’s GNH
Adaptations
Empowerment
Energy
Governance
Some Applications
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Examples
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UNDP’s
2010 Human Development Report first published the MPI
(updated annually for countries with new data)
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The MPI (UNDP 2010) • The MPI 2011 is an international index of acute
multidimensional poverty developed at OPHI
• In 2011 it covers 109 developing countries.
• It was launched in 2010 in the Human Development
Report, and updated in 2011, 2012
• It complements the $1.25/day poverty by bringing
more dimensions into view
• It is the first measure to reflect joint distribution of
disadvantages.
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Data: Surveys Demographic & Health Surveys (DHS - 54)
Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS - 32)
World Health Survey (WHS – 17)
Additionally we used 6 special surveys covering urban
Argentina (ENNyS), Brazil (PNDS), Mexico (ENSANUT),
Morocco (ENNVM), Occupied Palestinian Territory
(PAPFAM), and South Africa (NIDS)
Constraints: Data are 2000-2010, and not all have all 10
indicators.
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MPI Dimensions Weights & Indicators
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Measurement: Indicators & Cutoffs
• Health – Child Mortality: If any child has died in the family
– Malnutrition: If any interviewed adult in the family has
low Body Mass Index; if any child is more than 2 standard
deviations below the reference normal weight for age,
WHO standards) [WHS has male & female data but no
child data; MICS has child data but no adult data; DHS
has women 15-49 & child]
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Measurement: Indicators & Cutoffs
• Education
– Years of Schooling: if no person in the household
has completed 5 years of schooling
– Child Enrolment: if any school-aged child is out
of school, where school-aged is an eight year
period from the national starting age.
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Measurement: Indicators & Cutoffs
• Standard of Living
– Electricity (no electricity is deprived)
– Drinking water (MDG definitions)
– Sanitation (MDG definitions + not being shared)
– Flooring (dirt/sand/dung are deprived)
– Cooking Fuel (wood/charcoal/dung are deprived)
– Assets (deprived if do not own a car/truck and do
not own more than one of these: radio, tv,
telephone, bike, motorbike, or refrigerator)
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Identification: Who is poor?
A person is multidimensionally poor if they are
deprived in 33% of the dimensions at the
same time.
33%
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How do you calculate the MPI?
• The MPI uses the Alkire Foster method:
• H is the percent of people who are identified as poor,
it shows the incidence of multidimensional poverty.
• A is the average proportion of weighted deprivations
people suffer at the same time. It shows the intensity
of people’s poverty – the joint distribution of their
deprivations. The MPI is appropriate for ordinal data, and satisfies properties like subgroup consistency,
dimensional monotonicity, poverty & deprivation focus. MPI is
like the poverty gap measure – but looks at breadth instead –
what batters a person at the same time.
Formula: MPI = M0 = H × A
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What is new? Intensity.
The MPI starts with each person, and constructs a
deprivation profile for each person.
Some people are identified as poor based on their joint
deprivations. The others are identified as non-poor.
• Most multidimensional poverty measures look at
deprivations one by one, not at the household level.
• Counting measures do look at coupled deprivations but only
provide a headcount, giving no incentive to target those
who are deprived in most things at the same time or to
reduce intensity.
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61
Phuba
Deprived in 67% of dimensions.
It doesn’t tell the full story
But it gives some idea.
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MPI – Key Results
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Global Results:
These results are for 109 developing countries, selected
because they have DHS, MICS or WHS data since 2000.
Special surveys were used for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,
Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, and South Africa
They cover 5.3 billion people - 78.6% of the world’s population
Of these 5.3 billion people, 31% of people are poor.
That is 1.65 billion people. (2008 population figures taken from Population Prospects 2011; 2010 Revision).
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Half of the world’s MPI
poor people live in
South Asia, and 29% in
Sub-Saharan Africa
MPI poor people by region
Total Population in 109 MPI countries
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The MPI Headcount Ratios and the $1.25/day Poverty
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nig
er
Ethi
opia
Mal
i
Cent
ral A
fric
an R
epub
lic
Buru
ndi
Libe
ria
Burk
ina
Faso
Gui
nea
Rwan
da
Moz
ambi
que
Sier
ra L
eone
Com
oros
DR
Cong
o
Uga
nda
Mal
awi
Beni
n
Tim
or-L
este
Sene
gal
Mad
agas
car
Tanz
ania
Nep
al
Zam
bia
Chad
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Gam
bia
Bang
lade
sh
Hai
ti
Togo
Nig
eria
Indi
a
Cam
eroo
n
Yem
en
Cam
bodi
a
Paki
stan
Keny
a
Lao
Swaz
iland
Repu
blic
of C
ongo
Gab
on
Leso
tho
Sao
Tom
e an
d Pr
inci
pe
Hon
dura
s
Gha
na
Djib
outi
Nic
arag
ua
Bhut
an
Gua
tem
ala
Indo
nesi
a
Boliv
ia
Peru
Vie
t N
am
Tajik
ista
n
Mon
golia
Iraq
Phili
ppin
es
Sout
h A
fric
a
Para
guay
Chin
a
Mor
occo
Esto
nia
Turk
ey
Egyp
t
Syri
an A
rab
Repu
blic
Colo
mbi
a
Sri L
anka
Aze
rbai
jan
Mal
dive
s
Kyrg
yzst
an
Dom
inic
an R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Croa
tia
Mex
ico
Arg
enti
na
Braz
il
Jord
an
Uzb
ekis
tan
Ecua
dor
Ukr
aine
Mac
edon
ia
Mol
dova
Uru
guay
Thai
land
Latv
ia
Mon
tene
gro
Alb
ania
Russ
ian
Fede
rati
on
Arm
enia
Serb
ia
Bosn
ia a
nd H
erze
govi
na
Geo
rgia
Kaza
khst
an
Bela
rus
Slov
enia
103 of our 109 Countries have
income; only 71 have income
poverty data within 3 years of MPI.
Income data ranges from 1992-2008;
MPI from 2000-2010.
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Intensity is highest in the poorest countries.
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But there is variety…H in High-income countries 1-7%
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H in High- and Upper Middle-income countries 1-40%
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H in Middle- and High-income Countries 1-77%
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H in Low-income Countries ranges from 5-92%
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Ghana, Nigeria, and Ethiopia
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Ethiopia’s Regional Disparities
Ethiopia
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Ethiopia’s Regional Disparities
Addis Ababa
Somali
Afar
Harari
Dire
Dawa
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Nigeria’s Regional Disparities
Nigeria
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Nigeria’s Regional Disparities
South West
North East
Nigeria
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Ghana’s Regional Disparities
Ghana
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Ghana’s Regional Disparities
Greater
Accra
Northern Ghana
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CHANGES OVER TIME
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Ghana, Nigeria, and Ethiopia
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Let us Take a Step Back in Time
Ghana
2003
Nigeria
2003
Ethiopia
2000
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Ethiopia: 2000-2005 (Reduced A more than H)
Ghana
2008
Nigeria
2008
Ethiopia
2005
Ghana
2003
Nigeria
2003
Ethiopia
2000
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Nigeria 2003-2008 (Reduced H more than A)
Ghana
2008
Nigeria
2008
Ethiopia
2005
Ghana
2003
Nigeria
2003
Ethiopia
2000
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Ghana 2003-2008 (Reduced A and H Uniformly)
Ghana
2008
Nigeria
2008
Ethiopia
2005
Ghana
2003
Nigeria
2003
Ethiopia
2000
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Pathways to Poverty Reduction
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Ghana Nigeria Ethiopia
An
nual
ized
Ab
solu
te C
han
ge
in
th
e P
erce
nta
ge
Wh
o is
Po
or
and
Dep
rive
d in
...
Assets
Cooking Fuel
Flooring
Safe DrinkingWater
ImprovedSanitation
Electricity
Nutrition
Child Mortality
SchoolAttendance
Years ofSchooling
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Nigeria: Indicator Standard Errors
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Ethiopia’s Regional Changes Over Time
Addis Ababa
Harari
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Nigeria’s Regional Changes Over Time
South South
North Central
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Inside the Regions of Nigeria
-8.0
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
NorthCentral
NorthEast
NorthWest
SouthEast
SouthSouth
SouthWest
An
nual
ized
Ab
solu
te C
han
ge
in t
he
Per
cen
tage
Wh
o is
Po
or
and D
epri
ved in
... Assets
Cooking Fuel
Flooring
Safe DrinkingWaterImprovedSanitationElectricity
Nutrition
Child Mortality
Years ofSchoolingSchoolAttendance
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Robustness checks
to ‘value judgements’
(choice of parameters)
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Robustness to poverty cutoff
k= 20% to 40%
• 90% of the possible pairs of countries have a
dominance relation for k 2 to 4. That is, we
can say that one country is unambiguously
poorer than another regardless of whether we
require to be poor in 20, 30 or 40% of the
weighted indicators.
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Robustness to Weights MPI Weights 1 MPI Weights 2 MPI Weights 3
Equal weights:
33% each
(Selected
Measure)
50% Education
25% Health
25% LS
50% Health
25% Education
25% LS
Pearson 0.992
Spearman 0.979
Kendall (Taub) 0.893
Pearson 0.995 0.984
Spearman 0.987 0.954
Kendall (Taub) 0.918 0.829
Pearson 0.987 0.965 0.975
Spearman 0.985 0.973 0.968
Kendall (Taub) 0.904 0.863 0.854
Number of countries: 109
MPI
Weights 2
50% Education
25% Health
25% LS
MPI
Weights 3
50% Health
25% Education
25% LS
MPI
Weights 4
50% LS
25% Education
25% Health
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Robustness to Weights
Summary:
•High Correlations: 0.97 and above
•High Rank Concordance: 0.90 and
above
•85% of all possible pairwise
comparisons are robust
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Complements monetary poverty measures
Gives a ‘high resolution’ lens on poor people’s lives
An overview and a ‘dashboard’
Changes over time – can change relatively quickly
Provides incentives to reduce intensity and incidence.
Can be used to identify the poorest
Adaptable for National Poverty Measures (or M&E)
Research and Policy: large agenda is ongoing
Uses of an MPI
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Value Judgement 1: Selection of Data
- existing data
- internationally comparable
- legitimacy: MDGs
- malnutrition rather than income
- updated infrequently
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Value Judgement 2: Selection of
Dimensions
Dimensions are ‘notional’ –
affect wts, communication
Follows precedent: HDI,
HPI
Possible because of data
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Value Judgement 3: Selection of Indicators
Data constrained
Reflect MDGs (consensus)
Relatively Comparable
*note: technicalities in
construction are hardly
normatively justified but
matter a lot – e.g. hh
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Value Judgement 4: Selection of Weights
Weights are ‘nested’ –
equal then equal.
This is easy to
understand, and often
used.
Robust to a range of
plausible weights
Most controversial.
1/6 on Health and
Education
Indicators
1/18 on standard
of living indicators.
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Identification: Who is poor?
A person is multidimensionally poor if they are
deprived in 33% of the dimensions at the
same time.
33%
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Colombia’s National MPI:
5 Dimensions, 15 Variables, Nested Weights
Educational
Conditions Childhood & Youth
Work Health Housing & Public
Services
Schooling
Illiteracy
School
Attendance
At the right
level
Access to
infant
services
No Child
Labour
Absence of
long-term
unemploy-
ment
Coverage
Access to health
care given a
necessity
Improved Water
Flooring
Overcrowding
Sanitation
Exterior
Walls
Formal work 0.1
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.05
0.1 0.1
0.04 Poverty cutoff =
33%
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Territorial
Mexico’s National Measure: 6 social deprivations (1/12) + income (1/2)
Social Rights Deprivations
Population
We
llb
ein
g
Inco
me
Current income per capita
Six Social Rights: • Education
• Health
• Social Security
• Housing
• Basic Services
• Food
0 3 2 1 4 5 6
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Social Rights
Deprivations
Mexico’s Identification:
poverty = (income + 1); extreme = (lower income + 3)
With Deprivations
EXTREME Multidimensional
Poverty
0 3
Moderate Multidimensional
Poverty
Vulnerable by social deprivations
Vulnerable by income
5 2 4 1 6
Ideal Situation
Without
Deprivations
MULTIDIMENSIONALLY POOR Basic Needs £
Food £
Income
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102
Day 1:
Purpose of poverty measure
Dimensions to communicate measure
Particular Indicators used to measure poverty
Deprivation Cutoffs how much of each indicator?
Poverty Cutoff who is poor?
Values/Wts what are the relative weights of indicators?
Day 2:
Procedure: Who decides normative issues? What is the
appropriate role of poor people, governments, and
statistical or technical experts?
Plural Criteria: How should statistical, political, and
participatory input be coordinated in measurement design?
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Thank you
www.ophi.org.uk
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Purpose
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105
Aim of each session - discuss how to: • make the value judgements inherent in this decision (options)
• balance normative, technical, & political issues (priority)
• update over time
Chair to summarize:
1. How would we suggest to those charged with designing the multidimensional
poverty measure that they undertake the three steps above?
2. What pressing research questions have been noted?
3. (does the question need to be reformulated or changed?)
Participants to contribute:
• Literature – please jot or email annotated biblio, stating why you propose each
and what you see it adding ([email protected])
• People / Projects with expertise or research (as above)
• Ideas that you feel like sharing in writing
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106
Purpose of poverty measure
For today, we presume that the value judgements pertain to the
design of a long-term official measure of multidimensional poverty.
The poverty measure will inform policy design, and reflect positive
change that can be influenced by public policy.
This is to be updated periodically (say every 2 years) using time series
data that are nationally representative and can be decomposed by
region and relevant social groups.
The survey design will take place after the measure is designed.
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107
Purpose of poverty measure
The purpose of the evaluative exercise shapes all choices, e.g.
National Poverty Measure – to span decades
Youth Poverty Measure – once, to profile youth issues
Targeting exercise – to benefit poorest of the poor
Monitoring measure – to track progress to given goals
International Comparisons – across nations
Community Development – show changes transparently
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108
Purpose of poverty measure
To some extent, the purpose, having been determined, shapes the
value judgements. Should these be taken ‘as given’?
E.g. a measure designed to monitor progress towards a national development plan
might systematically exclude public debate.
Should omission of public debate require justification? Space of resources?
E.g. a measure designed to document a given set of human rights from the
universal declaration might ignore cultural values.
How justify the ‘need’ for contextual vs comparable measures ?
E.g. a very rigorous measure designed to evaluate a small poverty intervention may
cost more than the intervention itself.
E.g. a measure run in a famine-prone area may be framed to exclude malnutrition
E.g. a measure may be designed to target 20% of people when 50% are destitute
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Other early questions for a measure
1. Legal basis? (how endure across time)
2. How to update – Data / Survey; Frequency
3. Who will update (Institution; authority)
4. What Incentives it provides (ministries)
5. Political process of developing measure. 1. Public Consultations?
2. Expert Group – National Statistics & Economics
3. International/Regional Experts?
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Dimensions
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111
Purpose of poverty measure
For today, we presume that the value judgements pertain to the
design of a long-term official measure of multidimensional poverty.
The poverty measure will inform policy design, and reflect positive
change that can be influenced by public policy.
This is to be updated periodically (say every 2 years) using time series
data that are nationally representative and can be decomposed by
region and relevant social groups.
The survey design will take place after the measure is designed.
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112
Dimensions to communicate measure
Assume:
Dimensions are to be articulated in the space of
capabilities and functionings
Recall:
Dimensions are conceptual categories.
They do not appear in the ‘matrix’.
Each indicator belongs to one dimension.
They often help to set (nested) weights
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Colombia’s National MPI:
Dimensions emerge from National Plan
Educational
Conditions Childhood & Youth
Work Health Housing & Public
Services
Schooling
Illiteracy
School
Attendance
At the right
level
Access to
infant
services
No Child
Labour
Absence of
long-term
unemploy-
ment
Coverage
Access to health
care given a
necessity
Improved Water
Flooring
Overcrowding
Sanitation
Exterior
Walls
Formal work 0.1
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.05
0.1 0.1
0.04 Poverty cutoff =
33%
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Territorial
Mexico’s National Measure: Dimensions named by law
Social Rights Deprivations
Population
We
llb
ein
g
Inco
me
Current income per capita
Six Social Rights: • Education
• Health
• Social Security
• Housing
• Basic Services
• Food
0 3 2 1 4 5 6
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115
Dimensions to communicate measure Observations:
- Fits into ‘selection of capabilities’ (as broad categories)
- via public debate, consensus instruments, researcher choice,
legal/institutional mandates, empirical studies, data (MPI)
- Clearest issue in theory & practice
Concerns:
- Priority: Don’t other value judgements matter ‘more’?
- Timing: planning ex ante vs response to a clear measure
Practical Issues:
- How update?
- How combine?
- How document?
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Indicators ? more powerful; least discussed ?
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117
Indicators – More powerful than dimensions?
Constraints:
Need to come from some data source (functionings?)
Finance & politics constrains content, periodicity, quality
Some Considerations are not purely normative:
• data exist or could exist;
• stock vs. flow
• individual vs. household vs cty
• comparability across all ages/ethnicities
• higher quality vs lower quality indicators (£ & survey)
• statistical associations across indicators
• can be changed by public policy
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• Frequent usage (national or international);
literature review; discussion with experts;
other indicators. IPM-OPHI Internacional,
NBI, ICV y Sisbén III.
1. Indicators can be affected by public
policies.
2. Availability of information (in the survey of
Quality of Life in Colombia).
Precision of the sample
to estimate the
variable – estimated
coeff of variation <15%.
*EL DANE utiliza:
0-7: Estimación precisa
8-14: precisión aceptable
15-20 ó 15-25: Precisión regular y por lo tanto
se debe utilizar con precaución
Selection of Indicators (Variables)
Colombia’s MPI
Criteria for variable
selection Criteria to validate
variables
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Mexico’s Multidimensional Poverty
Presentations report the 6 dimensions,
and do not share indicators or cutoffs.
Do indicators matter - other than for
experts?
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Justification of Indicators
• Links to and proxy the dimensions/capabilities
– E.g. water. health/asset/dimension/gender
– E.g. indicators for health capabilities?
– In practice, rarely discussed; rarely debated.
– Arguably indicators of functionings (BMI, Ed) or their proxies
• Technical issues often rule:
– Accuracy, measurement error, expense, non-response
– Tracks changes in poverty over place and time
– Large debates even when clear analysis: stunting vs undernutrition
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Justification of Indicators
• How frame the problem & debate?
– Conceptual categorization? (e.g. water)
– Best proxy for definition of capability/dimension?
– Choice of priority among technical criteria?
– Take actual issues one by one (e.g. time use)
– Is normative input ‘essential’ vs ‘possibly helpful’
– Should the ‘choice of dimensions’ become ‘choice of indicators?’
• But too technical for public debate?
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Cutoffs
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z ( 13 12 3 1) Cutoffs
g0
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0 1 0 0
0
2
4
1
Recall: two cutoffs. Both clearly vj.
Deprivation Cutoffs zj: if a person is deprived in each indicator
Poverty cutoff k, a person is poor if ci > k (Ex: k = 2)
Indicators Indicators c
Persons
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Deprivation Cutoffs zj: if a person is deprived in each indicator
Poverty cutoff k, a person is poor if ci > k (Ex: k = 2)
Indicators Indicators c (k)
Persons
z ( 13 12 3 1) Cutoffs
0
4
2
0
0000
1111
1010
0000
0
g
Recall: two cutoffs
y
13.1 14 4 1
15.2 7 5 0
12.5 10 1 0
20 11 3 1
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Deprivation Cutoffs:
Clearly are value judgements:
How much is enough not to be deprived?
– Example: Income Poverty Line
– Example: MPI – MDG indicators
Clearly matter fundamentally:
- Affect ‘effective weights’
- Define possibility to be identified as poor
- Empirically, can be greater sensitivity
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Justification of deprivation cutoffs
• Technical (although disputed)
– E.g. safe water. Particular bugs absent (response codes)
– E.g. malnutrition. Z scores and reference groups
– Statistical properties
• Political & Legal
– Promised / Required (e.g. compulsory education, plan)
• Constraints & Challenges:
– Diversity – individual & group
– Knowledge of data concerns & analyses
– Knowledge of possibilities
– Comparability (rural-urban; climatic zones)
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Poverty Cutoffs:
Clearly a value judgment: How much is enough to be poor?
– Reflects purpose (targeting vs national measure)
– Often political interest
This is a new step – so not many precedents.
Has been set
• To match particular headcount ratio
• To reflect participatory or subjective assessments
• To match legal definition (Mexico)
• To match statistical ‘gaps’ in data points (Bristol)
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The number of MPI deprivations experienced by those who were income poor,
and those who perceived themselves to be poor, was compared with the number
of deprivations among the non-income and non-subjective poor.
Poverty Cutoff – Colombia.
Median Average
People who perceive themselves to be poor 5.0 5.0
Income poor people 5.1 5.2
Income poor people who perceive self as poor 5.4 5.6
Those who don’t perceive themselves as poor 3.0 3.2
Those who are not income poor 3.0 3.2
All people 3.8 4.1
Median and Average number of deprivations 2008
Fuente: Cálculos DNP-SPSCV, con datos de la ECV2008
A non-poor person on average has 3 deprivations, which suggests that a low value of k would capture
deprivations that were not related to or sufficient to identify poverty.
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Social Rights
Deprivations
Mexico’s Poverty Cutoffs:
poverty = (income + 1); extreme = (lower income + 3)
With Deprivations
EXTREME Multidimensional
Poverty
0 3
Moderate Multidimensional
Poverty
Vulnerable by social deprivations
Vulnerable by income
5 2 4 1 6
Ideal Situation
Without
Deprivations
MULTIDIMENSIONALLY POOR Basic Needs £
Food £
Income
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Weights
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Weights (Values)
• Some critics have focused on the weights – Claiming they cannot be set in a defensible way
– Claiming disputes on weights undermine legitimacy of measure
– Prefer a ‘mechanical’ route – eigen vectors/regression coefficients/prices
• Thus far, insufficient guidance
– Yes, weights are normative, and not embarrassing to set
– Yes, we will disagree hence need a plausible range of weights, but:
– Weights are also a function of deprivation cutoffs / headcounts
– Weights are also influenced by association among indicators
– Weights vary across person/group: combine or apply individually?
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Weights (Values)
• Literature is large (review paper) – Is it sufficient to explain the options, strengths & weaknesses?
– Is there anything that can be ruled out
• Thus far, insufficient guidance
– Yes, weights are normative, and not embarrassing to set
– Yes, we will disagree hence need a plausible range of weights, but:
– Weights are also a function of deprivation cutoffs / headcounts
– Weights are also influenced by association among indicators
– Weights vary across person/group: combine or apply individually?
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Equal (nested) weights
• Most commonly used approach
• Advocated for policy communication
(Atkinson)
• Equal weights represent value judgments
• Example: 1. BMI, years of school (0.5)
2. BMI, yrs school, caloric intake, anaemia, (0.25)
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Field Studies: Participatory FGD
–The Participants:
–Identified the focal problems of poverty
–Ranked the dimensions of poverty (weights)
–Identified ‘cutoffs’ – who is poor?
–Provided feedback on the 3 trial measures
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135
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Another community: FGD
Ruepisa: Ranking
Most important Electricity
Land
Sanitation
Health
Drinking Water
Next most Education
Housing
Third Income / Money
Fourth Animal
Assets