value of course position - stanford university prez.pdf · putting .y=-5101e- 3xa2 +0 147x 1 086...

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Value of Course Position by Adam Wells, Bradley Knox, and Zach Dammel

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Page 1: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Value of Course Position

by Adam Wells, Bradley Knox, and Zach Dammel

Page 2: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Why We Did It

“Statistics are not analytics.”-Kirk Lacob

Page 3: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Methodology (Do not attempt to read)

Page 4: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Fairway Green

Page 5: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Putting5 ft10 ft30 ft 25 ft

Page 6: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Fairway Green

Page 7: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Fairway vs. Rough

Page 8: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Fairway vs. Rough

100

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Page 9: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Value of Driving Accuracy and Distance

E(S)=α[(L-D)(.00372)+2.6)]+(1-α)[(L-D)(.003042)+2.498)]

L = Length of hole (assumed to be 450 yards for next example)D = Driving distance

α = Driving accuracy

Page 10: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Ex: John Daly vs. Zach Johnson

John Daly:

Average Driving Distance: 297 yards

Fairway Accuracy: 46%

Zach Johnson:

Average Driving Distance: 273.8 yards

Fairway Accuracy: 85%

Page 11: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Ex: John Daly vs. Zach Johnson

100

175

250

450

Page 12: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Driving Accuracy vs DistanceTwo Options on the Drive:

(1) Conservative (280 yards, 3-wood, higher fairway percentage)

(2) Aggressive (300 yards, driver, lower fairway percentage)

Which is Better?

Page 13: Value of Course Position - Stanford University Prez.pdf · Putting .y=-5101E- 3xA2 +0 147X 1 086 Distance to Hole (Yards) How Much Farther on Rough? 400 300 200 200 0TH (Fairway)

Where do we go from here?