value of the interconnectors in the nordic countries · benefits of interconnectors capacity...
TRANSCRIPT
General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.
Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.
You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain
You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Sep 13, 2020
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Tattini, Jacopo; Gargiulo, Maurizio
Publication date:2015
Document VersionPeer reviewed version
Link back to DTU Orbit
Citation (APA):Tattini, J. (Author), & Gargiulo, M. (Author). (2015). Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries.Sound/Visual production (digital)
Value of the interconnectors in the Nordic countries
Jacopo Tattini, Maurizio Gargiulo
PhD Student at Energy System Analysis Group
System Analysis Division
DTU Management Engineering
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
2 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
3 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Background: Nord Pool market
4 26 October 2015
Nord Pool: power trading market of Nordic and Baltic countries. The auctioning countries are divided into bidding areas linked with interconnectors controlled by the TSOs. If the power flows between the bidding areas exceed the interconnectors transmission limit, grid congestion occurs. Bottlenecks in the interconnectors lead to different prices in the various areas composing the Nordic electric system.
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Benefits of interconnectors capacity expansion
Interconnectors are one of the main power price drivers in the Nordic countries
Interconnectors are essential for the integration of variable power sources
Interesting to assess their role and their influence on the power trade
5 26 October 2015
Source: L’ Abbate et al. (2011)
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
6 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
TIMES-NordPool
TIMES-NordPool: represents the Norwegian, Swedish and Finnish power and thermal systems.
Purposes:
• To be run together with TIMES-DK to better simulate power trade processes
• Exploring the future power exchange between the Nordic countries under different assumptions
• Assessing transmission capacity expansion under different scenarios
7 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
TIMES-NordPool: Spatial resolution
• Multiregional model: Each country = One region
• Interconnectors between Norway, Finland and Sweden implemented as endogenous trade processes
• Interconnectors between Nordic countries and neighboring countries implemented as exogenous trade processes
8 26 October 2015
Power prices and volumes endogenously optimized
Power volumes calculated according to price related criteria
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
TIMES-NordPool: Hard-linking with TIMES-DK
9 26 October 2015
TRADE
TIMES-NordPool TIMES-DK
All interconnections between Nordic countries as endogenous processes
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
TIMES-NordPool: Time structure
• Same 32 time slices as TIMES-DK The models are consistent
• Base Year: 2010
• Time horizon: 2010-2050
10 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis oneffect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
11 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Assumptions for the analysis
All analyses on the power trade between the Nordic countries have been performed using TIMES-NordPool hard-linked to TIMES-DK.
Baseline scenario considers:
• DKW and DKE: power and thermal system fossil free by 2035, entire energy system fossil free by 2050
• NOR, FIN, SWE: no environmental constraints (NETP Carbon Neutral scenario is implemented but not activated)
12 26 October
2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Transmission grid in the base year
13 26 October 2015
Base year
Source: ENTSO-E (2012)
High integration of power systems
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Transmission grid expansion
14 26 October 2015
Exogenous grid expansion
Source: ENTSO-E (2014)
Starting grid
+
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Power generation in 2050
15 26 October 2015
Solar 35%
Wind Onshore
65%
DKE
Solar 18%
Wind Onshore
82%
DKW
Coal 9%
Hydro 57% Natural
Gas 4%
Wind Offshore
17%
Wind Onshore
13%
NOR Biomass 4%
Coal 19%
Hydro 56%
Wind Offshore
11%
Wind Onshore
6%
Nuclear 4% SWE
Biomass 8%
Coal 42%
Hydro 13%
Wind Offshore
12%
Wind Onshore
3%
Nuclear 22%
FIN
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Electricity prices in 2050
16 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Power trade between Norway and Denmark in 2050
17 26 October 2015
Trade is ongoing:
• Until marginal costs equal
• Until congestion occurs
Power price
Power flow
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Price convergence
Between 2010 and 2020 about 7.5 GW of new transmission lines are installed
18 26 October 2015
..less congestions
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
19 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Analysis of grid expansion
• Uncertainty on grid expansion after 2020
• Endogenous optimization of grid expansion
• Possible new interconnectors from ENTSO-E in Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2014 (TYNDP)
• Constraint on starting year, no on transmission capacity
20 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Uncertainty on costs of future interconnectors
Sensitivity analysis with interconnectors costs: under which cost condition the interconnectors are built?
21 26 October 2015
Low Medium High
k€/MW INVCOST O&M INVCOST O&M INVCOST O&M
NOR-SWE 190 0.4 310 0.7 440 1.0
NOR-FIN 600 1.4 1000 2.3 1400 3.2
SWE-FIN 56 0.1 91 0.2 130 0.3
DKW-DKE 430 1.0 725 1.6 1020 2.3
DKW-SWE 560 1.3 930 2.1 1300 2.9
SWE-GER 260 0.6 429 1.0 600 1.4
SWE-LAT 300 0.7 500 1.1 700 1.6
NOR-HOL 1033 2.3 1721 4.0 2410 5.4
Source: ENTSO-E (2014)
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Endogenous grid expansion: sensitivity analysis
22 26 October 2015
Low interconnectors costs Medium interconnectors costs High interconnectors costs
Exogenous power prices not consistent
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
23 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Sensitivity analysis: only existing interconnectors
How does the Nordic power system react to a changeless transmission grid?
Only interconnectors existing or under construction by 2015 are considered
24 26 October 2015
Region Average relative price
increase
Average absolute price increase
(€/MWh)
Price relative stnrd dev increase
DKE 7% 3.4 59%
DKW 1% 0.5 64%
FIN 1% 0.5 53%
NOR 9% 3.9 88%
SWE 12% 4.8 87%
Most penalized country
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Agenda
• Background
• TIMES-NordPool
• Analysis of power trade in the Nordic countries
• Analysis of grid expansion possibilities
• Sensitivity analysis on effect of no grid expansion
• Conclusions
25 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
Conclusions
TIMES-NPM hard-linked to TIMES-DK allows:
• Calculating endogenously the power prices and volumes between Denmark and the
rest of the Nordic countries Limiting the risk of the assumptions on the
exogenous trade processess for the Danish interconnectors
• Optimizing endogenously the transmission grid expansion
• Assessing for the Nordic interconnectors the cost thresholds within which they are
feasible
• Assessing for each Nordic country the average increase of power prices if the
planned interconnectors are not built
26 26 October 2015
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer”
27 26 October 2015
Jacopo Tattini [email protected]
http://www.sys.man.dtu.dk/Research/Energy-Systems-Analysis/PhD-projects