valuengine weekly: tech stocks,exxon mobil, and social media giants

8/20/2019 ValuEngine Weekly: Tech Stocks,Exxon Mobil, and Social Media Giants

1/8

July 31, 2015

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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 515!" o# ourstocks ass$%ned a valuat$on and &'(&" o# t)ose e*u$t$es are calculated to+e overvalued +, &'" or more N$ne sectors are calculated to +eovervalued--w$t) t)ree at or near dou+le d$%$ts

MARKET OVERVIEW

Inde. /tarted week 0r$da, A C)an%e C)an%e " ,td

23IA %&(%"&) %&&*)"( 1(4!& 1'1" -'("

NA/2A6 +", %." !74 1((" !!4"

8U//9LL &''' %%,"% %*,"*& &'14 145" &!!"

/; 5'' +&)"%, %%%"+(


2/8

SECTOR OVERVIEW

/ector C)an%e T2 =T2 Valuat$on Last 1&-

8eturn

;>9

8at$oAerospace -+"&/ -+",/ .",(/ %."%&/ overvalued -%",*/ +"+,

Auto-T$res-Trucks -+"%+/ -*"+(/ -%"*&/ "+&/ undervalued -,"&,/ %&"%*

?as$c ater$als -%"(+/ -%+",(/ -%"%)/ %,"(+/ undervalued -*(",/ %"))

?us$ness /erv$ces +"%&/ -%".+/ *"(/ ")/ overvalued -*"++/ ."

Computer and Tec)nolo%, +"/ -."*+/ -+"%./ .".*/ overvalued -%"),/ ,".,

Construct$on +"+&/ -%")(/ +".*/ "*./ undervalued +".&/ ."

Consumer 2$scret$onar, +"/ -%".+/ ("()/ ("../ overvalued -+"/ )".

Consumer /taples +"%)/ -%"./ %"),/ %+".*/ overvalued +")./ "(,

0$nance +"+(/ -+")&/ %",&/ ."+,/ overvalued -+"))/ %&"(

Industr$al ;roducts +"%/ -"%(/ -%",./ "./ undervalued -&"((/ %,"*.

ed$cal -+")/ -+"&/ %"%,/ %&"+/ overvalued %"**/ *+",)

ult$-/ector Con%lomerates -+"*+/ -*"../ -+",%/ ("%/ overvalued -"%%/ "*

O$ls-9ner%, -+"()/ -%%"+/ -%"%+/ %",/ undervalued -.."(&/ "%(

8eta$l-W)olesale +"./ -"%/ -%"+/ ."/ overvalued *",*/ "&

Transportat$on -%"%/ -".)/ -."./ %".+/ undervalued -."%/ %(",*

Ut$l$t$es -+".&/ -"../ -"()/ +"./ undervalued -(",/ +")

ValuEngine Newslee!s "aes Resuls

V9 Newsletter Currentont) Total

?enc)mark @ Last ont)Total

?enc)mark @ /$nceIncept$on

?enc)mark @

0orecast N/ 744 '< 5&5511! -1&777& 1177!7<

@NOT9: ?enc)mark #or 0orecast N/ #or last mont) and $ncept$on $s t)e L/A Lon%>/)ort 0und

?enc)mark #or /mall Cap $s t)e 8ussell &''' /mall Cap Inde. B8UT ?enc)mark #or current mont)0orecast N/ and all ot)er port#ol$os #or all t$me #rames $s t)e /;5''


3/8

Se#$! Tal%&Te#'n$l$gy

Below, we present the latest data on leading Technology Sector stocks fromour Institutional software package (VEI. These results were filtered by market priceand volume--no results below 3$share or less than !""k sharesday volume.

Top-0$ve Tec)nolo%, /ector /tocks--/)ort-Term 0orecast 8eturns

T$cker Compan, Name arket ;r$ce Valuat$on Last 1&- 8etrn

0L 012TI-3I4E2I4E %&".) -*"%)/ &."(*/

AVI2 5VI6 TE78 I47 %%")) -*"*+/ )".+/

T/9 T9WE: ;E0I7946 %*"+* ."*%/ ."**/

N/8 4E1;T5: I47 -5 ,"+% -")/ *"*,/

W/TC WE;T 79:< )"(( 4=5 ,"%/

Top-0$ve Tec)nolo%, /ector /tocks--Lon%-Term 0orecast 8eturns


0L 012TI-3I4E2I4E %&".) -*"%)/ &."(*/

AVI2 5VI6 TE78 I47 %%")) -*"*+/ )".+/

T/9 T9WE: ;E0I7946 %*"+* ."*%/ ."**/

N/8 4E1;T5: I47 -5 ,"+% -")/ *"*,/

W/TC WE;T 79:< )"(( 4=5 ,"%/

Top-0$ve Tec)nolo%, /ector /tocks--Compos$te /core


T/ T5IW54 ;E0I-56: "& -%+"(/ ,"(/

0L 012TI-3I4E2I4E %&".) -*"%)/ &."(*/

AVI2 5VI6 TE78 I47 %%")) -*"*+/ )".+/

N/8 4E1;T5: I47 -5 ,"+% -")/ *"*,/

AVDO 5V5>9 TE784929> %&"( -+",,/ )%"+./

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4/8

Top-0$ve Tec)nolo%, /ector /tocks--ost Overvalued


22 6E0546 0E6I5 "), *++"++/ -&)"%,/

?ITA ?IT51T9 89264>; *,"&) %&"(/ -,"++//UN9 ;14E6I;94 I47 "(* %.&"./ %")/

9LLI E22IE 05E I47 (,"%* %+&"(/ %*"%./

/D/ ;7IE4TI3I7 >50E %"+) ,*"+./ &+"&)/

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#$ $%&I'()I$#, *+ (- F.EE ).I(&/

To /$%n Up #or a0899 T8IALE;lease Cl$ck

H989

(!ee )$wnl$a* +$! Rea*e!s

(s a 0onus to our Free Weekly #ewsletter su0scri0ers,we are offering a F.EE $W#&$( of one of our Stock .eports

#on %obil &orporation's ()*%+ principal business is energy, involvingeploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacturing of

petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas andpetroleum products. #on %obil is a maor manufacturer and marketer of basicpetrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plasticsand a wide variety of specialty products. #on %obil is engaged in eploration for,

and mining and sale of coal, copper and other minerals.

/0#121# 4#&*%%#15T*16 alu#ngine continues its 7*/5

recommendation on #))*1 %*B/ &48 for 9"!:-";-3". Based on the information wehave gathered and our resulting research, we feel that #))*1 %*B/ &48 has theprobability to 4*027/< %T&7 average market performance for the net year. The

company ehibits TT4&T# &ompany Si=e but 01TT4&T# #arnings 2rowth4ate.

http://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfo


5/8

(s a 0onus to our #ewsletter readers,we are offering a F.EE $W#&$( of one of our Stock .eports

.ead our 1omplete etailed Valuation .eport on E22on Mo0il H989

ValuEngine !orecast

Target

8rice>

#pected

4eturn

"#$onth ?3.!3 ".!@A

%#$onth ?@.?; 9.9@A

$onth ?.9" 3.?@A

"#'ear [email protected] !.;A

#'ear ?.:3 @.9:A

%#'ear C3.!! !9.!A

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6/8

Valuation ) RankingsValuation 9.@:A overvalued Valuation Rank (D+ @;

"#$ !orecast Return ".!@A "#$ !orecast Return Rank !"#$ Return -!C."A $o*entu* Rank (D+ 3;

+harpe Ratio ".@C +harpe Ratio Rank (D+ ;3

#' -vg -nnual Return ;.:@A #' -vg -nnual Rtn Rank "

Volatility !:.9;A Volatility Rank (D+ ?C

E.pecte/ E0+ 1rowth -99.?A E0+ 1rowth Rank (D+ !9

$arket Cap (billions 3:!.:! +i2e Rank !""

3railing 04E Ratio !@.@C 3railing 04E Rank (D+ ;?

!orwar/ 04E Ratio !?.;? !orwar/ 04E Ratio Rank 3?

0E1 Ratio na 0E1 Ratio Rank na

0rice4+ales ".C@ 0rice4+ales Rank (D+ ?

$arket45ook !.C? $arket45ook Rank (D+ :9

5eta ".?; 5eta Rank :;

-lpha -".9@ -lpha Rank 3!

W'as -$A Tale $+ Tw$ S$#ial Me*ia S$#%s

Twitter (TET4+ reported earnings this week, and the initial reaction was positive. Ehilethe company is still not profitable, losses were pared to $!3; million or $".9!share

versus last year's loss of $!@: million. They also made the claim that they epect to

turn a profit Fsoon,F in 9"!?G 4unning some FmagicF on the numbers-- once certainepenses were ecluded, the company claimed earnings of $".";share. That was

actually a beat--sort of--as analysts had epected a figure of only $"."@share.

*n that initial news, the stock had a little pop. 7owever, after hours, once investors

had a chance to digest the news and dig down into the earnings data, things Huicklysoured and the stock began to nose dive. &ritical for a social media company likeTwitter is the strength of the its user base. nd here we see a problem. The company is

1*T growing fast enough to provide the eyeballs needed to make money fromadvertising. The company added only Ieight million Fmonthly active usersF (%0+ inthis Huarter for a total of 3!9 million %0.

That slow growth is a bad sign--and that bad sign was even noted by Twitter *Jack 5orsey on the earnings call when he said KThis is unacceptable and weLre not

happy about it.F Twitter is badly lagging Macebook, which has I !.@ billion %0s. naddition, the growth for Twitter is slowing rather than picking up. This also does notbode well for the company.

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7/8

/0#121# 4#&*%%#15T*16 alu#ngine continues its S#// recommendation onTETT#4 1& for 9"!:-";-3". Based on the information we have gathered and ourresulting research, we feel that TETT#4 1& has the probability to 015#48#4M*4%

average market performance for the net year. The company ehibits 01TT4&T#

8rice Sales 4atio and Book %arket 4atio.

Things could have hardly have been more different for the other social media giant,Macebook (MB+. Macebook reported a far brighter earnings and growth picture with itsearnings for N9. Macebook eceeded Eall St. epectations 15 maintained good

user-base growth. Mor the Huarter, revenue rose 3CA to $@."@ billion--up from $9.C!billion a year ago. 1et income was $;!C million, or $".9:share, compared to$".3"share a year ago. The company reported a profit of $".:"share, which beat

analyst estimates of $".@;share.

The company's Fmonthly active usersF (%0+ in this Huarter totaled !.@C billion, andincrease of !3A year-over-year. ncreases in users were within that range in all

categories. Those are the sort of numbers advertisers like to see, and the company'sadvertising revenues increased accordingly--@3A year-over-year.

nalysts note that the company growth and associated revenues have scaled upnicely, and its rate of growth is similar to 2oogle's when it was at its height. %obilegrowth has been very strong, and the stock price has responded in kind. Macebook's

performance stands in stark contrast to Twitter and other sites along the same FflightpathF--such as


8/8

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