valuing plug-in vehicle air emission and oil consumption ......cv v 0 0 cv v 0 0 cv v 0 0 0 base...

Valuing Plug-in Vehicle Air Emission and Oil Consumption Benefits

Jeremy J. Michalek, Paulina Jaramillo, Mikhail Chester, Costa Samaras, C.-S. Norman Shiau and Lester B. Lave

2CMU EPP Advisory Board Meeting | 3-14-2011 Jeremy J. Michalek

Conventional

Hybrid-Electric

Gasoline

Electricity

Power Convertor

Engine MotorEngine &

Motor

Battery Pack

- Small Large

Vehicle electrification

Battery Electric

Engine & Motor

Medium

Plug-in Hybrid Electric

CV HEV PHEV BEV


Associate Professor Jeremy Michalek

EPP and Mechanical Eng.

Vehicle design and life cycle implications

Assistant Professor Jay Whitacre

EPP and Material Science and Eng.

Battery technology

Professor Chris Hendrickson

Civil & Environmental Eng.

Transportation and life cycle assessment

Assistant Professor Shawn Litster

Mechanical Eng.

Fuel cells

Professor Francis McMichael

EPP and Civil & Environmental Eng.

Battery technology, life cycle assessment

Associate Professor Illah Nourbakhsh

Robotics Institute

Electric vehicle conversions

Gregg Podnar

Robotics Institute

Electric vehicle conversions

Dr. Constantine Samaras

RAND Corporation (EPP Alum)

Policy assessment

Grace Heckmann

Market demand for alternative vehicles

Orkun Karabasoglu

Life cycle implications of driving cycles

Scott Peterson

Life cycle air emissions, battery life, vehicle

to grid

Apurba Sakti

Battery design and cost modeling

Elizabeth Traut

Plug-in vehicle design and charging

infrastructure optimization

Tugce Yuksel

Battery degradation and thermal

management


Benefits of PHEVs

1. Greenhouse gas emissions

28% of GHG emissions from transportation (EPA)

2. Air pollution

22,000-52,000 deaths per year from air pollution (JAMA)

3. Oil dependency

Cost U.S. economy ~$0.5 trillion in 2008 (Greene)


How much can xEVs help?

xEVs offset gasoline use

Reduces oil dependency

xEVs change emissions profile

Fewer emissions associated with gasoline production and combustion

More emissions associated with battery and electricity production

xEVs change location of emissions

Location doesn’t matter for GHGs, but…

Damage done by air pollution highly depends on where it is released (population density, etc.)


Location drives air pollution damage


Data

Cohon et al. 2010 NRC study “The Hidden Costs of Energy”

Quantify externality damages to human health, crops, buildings, etc.

$6M value of statistical life

Morbidity also accounted for

Argonne National Labs (GREET)

Vehicle efficiency, emissions, and design

Life cycle emissions from refineries, factories, etc.

National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)

Distribution of driving patterns in the U.S.


Lifetime emissions damages

Emissions damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles

Optimistic: $1000 damage reduction over the life

Pessimistic: $6000 damage increase over the life

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BASE CASEU.S. Avg. Grid Mix

OPTIMISTICZero-EmissionPower Plant

PESSIMISTICCoal Fired

Power Plant

Lifetime Damages from Life Cycle Emissions

VOCSO2PM2.5PM10NOxCOGHG


Ownership costs

Base CaseBest Case for

ElectrificationWorst Case for Electrification

Vehicle costsANL 2015 literature

reviewDOE 2030 program

goals**ANL 2015 literature

review

Gasoline pricesAverage

(2008-2010)Max

(2008-2010)Min

(2008-2010)

Electricity pricesAverage

(2008-2010)Min

(2008-2010)Max

(2008-2010)

Battery Life12 years

(life of vehicle)12 years

(life of vehicle)6 years

** ANL calls DOE program goals “very optimistic”


Net life cycle costsOptimistic: Plug-in vehicles slightly less expensive over the life. Costs drive comparison, not damages

Pessimistic: Plug-in vehicles could cost much more while causing more damage

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BASE CASEANL 2015 CostsAvg. Gas Price

12 yr. BatteryAvg. Grid

OPTIMISTICDOE 2030 GoalsHigh Gas Price

12 yr. BatteryHydroelectric

PESSIMISTICANL 2015 CostsLow Gas Price

6 yr. BatteryCoal Electricity

Lifetime Costs and Emissions Damages

Damages

Electricity

Gasoline

Batt. Rplc.

Battery

Base Vehicle


Oil dependency

Oil Supply Disruption

Externalities estimated at $0.11/gal (Brown and Huntington)

Not enough to change trends

Market Power

US Monopsony effect:$0.22/gal (Leiby)

Military spending:

$75-$90 billion in 2009 (RAND) : $0.24-$0.28/gal

But…

Spending is nonlinear: Marginal reductions may have near-zero effect on military spending

Less than half of each bbl oil produced is used to make gasoline – large reductions require coordination


Cost of oil consumption

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CV HEV PHEV20 PHEV60 BEV240

Externality Damages by Type

Petrol

VOC

SO2

PM2.5

PM10

NOx

CO

GHG

Total Externalities + Monopsony Premium (Base Case)


Other externalities

Rebound effect

Lower operating costs may encourage more driving

Higher congestion costs

Higher accident rates

These externalities have higher associated costs than emissions (Delucchi)

Will range issues combat rebound effect?


Take awayEmissions damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles

Upper bound: Hydro electricity

BEV reduces damages $1000 over HEV

Lower bound: Coal electricity

BEV increases damages $6000 over HEV

Worth the cost?

Damage reductions are small compared to ownership costs

Across most scenarios, electrification is better only when it saves consumers money

If it’s cheaper, market will drive adoption

If it’s not, emissions benefits don’t justify the extra cost

Oil dependency

Externalities, monopsonyeffect, and marginal security spending not enough to tip the balance

Small is Beautiful

More batteries more green

Large packs are underutilized

Extra emissions from production, weight

HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs are most efficient and robust

Offer a good solution across a wide range of scenarios

Reduce more GHGs per dollar spent


Decisionmakers

Federal Decisionmakers

U.S. House and Senate

EPA

DOE

NHTSA

State and Local Decisionmakers

California CEC and ARB

Other states interested in Evs

Private Decisionmakers

Automotive manufacturers

Utilities


AcknowledgementsCo-authors

Prof. Chris Hendrickson (CMU)Civil & Environmental Engineering

Prof. H. Scott Matthews (CMU) Civil & Environmental EngineeringEngineering & Public Policy

Prof. Jay Whitacre (CMU)Material Science & EngineeringEngineering & Public Policy

Dr. Mikhail Chester (UC Berkeley)Civil & Environmental Engineering

Dr. Paulina Jamarillo (CMU)Engineering & Public PolicyTepper School of Business

Dr. Constantine Samaras (RAND)

Dr. Ching-Shin Norman Shiau(CMU/Dell)Mechanical Engineering

Scott Peterson (CMU) Engineering & Public Policy

Nikhil Kaushal (CMU) Mechanical Engineering

Richard Hauffe (Lockheed Martin)

Carnegie Mellon

Green Design Institute

Vehicle Electrification Group

Design Decisions Lab

Support

NSF CAREER Grant #0747911

NSF MUSES Grant #0628084

Ford Motor Company

Toyota Motor Corp

CMU Climate Decision Making Center, NSF SES Grant #0345798

Teresa Heinz Scholars for Environmental Research Program

Steinbrenner Institute

Questions &Discussion

[email protected] [email protected]

BackupSlides


Breakdown of emissions damages

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Vehicle Production

Battery Production

Gasoline Production

Electricity Production

Vehicle Operation

Breakdown of Externality Damages

Petrol

VOC

SO2

PM2.5

PM10

NOx

CO

GHGs


Sensitivity

Extensive sensitivity analysis on emissions and costs

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BaseCase

Grid MixCases

Elec. Up-stream Cases

Oil Refining Cases

Oil Upstream Cases

Oil Source Cases

Assembly Cases

Manuf. Up-stream Cases

Manuf. Elec. Cases

Vehicle Data Cases

Li-ion Batt.Life Cases

Driving Lo-cation Cases

GHG Value Cases

Oil Premium Cases

Lifetime Emissions Damages w/ Sensitivity Analysis

VOCSO2PM2.5PM10NOxCOGHGsBase CaseLow CaseHigh Case

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BaseCase

Grid MixCases

Elec. Up-stream Cases

Oil Refining Cases

Oil Upstream Cases

Oil Source Cases

Assembly Cases

Manuf. Up-stream Cases

Manuf. Elec. Cases

Vehicle Data Cases

Li-ion Batt.Life Cases

Driving Lo-cation Cases

VehicleCost Cases

GasolinePrice Cases

Electricity Price Cases

GHG Value Cases

Oil Premium Cases

NPV of Lifetime Costs w/ Sensitivity Analysis

Damages

Electricity

Gasoline

Batt. Rplc.

Battery

Base Vehicle

Base Case

Low Case

High Case


Research direction1. Regional Assessment: Where is better to electrify (grid

mix, temperature, terrain, driving style, driving distance, etc.)

2. Battery Thermal Management: When worth paying the cost and energy to gain battery performance and life?

3. Infrastructure: Assess technical, economic and environmental implications of battery charging and swapping stations

4. Cell & System Design: Thin vs. thick electrode cells for different applications, combination on same bus?

5. Consumer Preferences: Willingness to pay for PHEV attributes

6. On Road: Hymotion Prius with sensors for road testing and validation, ChargeCar project, Toyota PHEV fleet

valuing plug-in vehicle air emission and oil consumption ......cv v 0 0 cv v 0 0 cv v 0 0 0 base...

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