vancouver west real estate market report 2018 in … · 2020. 1. 12. · on average: sale times up...

KLEIN GROUPVANCOUVER WEST REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT2018 IN REVIEW

www.kleingroup.com

2018 MARKET SUMMARY

As part of a broader pattern across the Lower Mainland, Vancouver West home sales dropped in 2018 to levels not seen since 2008. The market transitioned from a sellers’ to a balanced market, with listings inventory up, expired list-ings up and average prices down slightly. That said, such a market always presents great opportunities. Klein Group market research and service are second to none, so please contact us to find out how we can give you an edge when you buy or sell.

Mortgage News And Insights . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Residential Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Detached Homes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

VOLUME: $6,498,483,316 – down 31% from 2017UNITS: 4450 – down 29% AVERAGE PRICE: $1,460,333 – down 2.3%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 17.5% – down 12.6%

VOLUME: $2,549,201,083 – down 39% from 2017UNITS: 675 – down 36%AVERAGE PRICE: $3,589,792 – down 9%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 6.9% – down 5.3%

Townhouses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

VOLUME: $547,503,881 – down 29% from 2017UNITS: 393 – down 28%AVERAGE PRICE: $1,393,140 – down 1.4%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 16.9% – down 16.3%

Condominiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

VOLUME: $3,427,355,340 – down 23% from 2017UNITS: 3354 – down 28%AVERAGE PRICE: $1,021,871 – up 8%SALES/LISTINGS RATIO: 26.7% – down 18.6%

KLEIN GROUP ©2019VANCOUVER WEST MARKET REPORT: 2018 IN REVIEW 2

RESIDENTIAL SALES OVERVIEW

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016

HIGHLIGHTS AND INSIGHTS

Annual Volume Sales: 2016 – 2017 – 2018

Monthly Unit Sales: 2016 – 2017 – 2018

Monthly Volume Sales: 2016 – 2017 – 2018

2018 DOLLAR SALES DOWN 31% FROM 2017Unit sales down 29%. Sales/listing ratio of 17.5% – Balanced market.

2018 TOTAL LISTINGS UP 26%, EXPIRED LISTINGS UP 59% On average: sale times up 4 days; sellers got 97.2% of asking price.

BEST PRICE BRACKETS FOR BUYERS Detached $4,000,000-$4,999,999 /// Townhouse $2,000,000- $2,999,999 /// Condo $3,000,000-$3,999,999

BEST PRICE BRACKETS FOR SELLERS Detached $2,000,000-$2,999,999 /// Townhouse $400,000- $899,999 /// Condo $400,000-$899,999


RESIDENTIAL SALES IN DETAIL

2016 2017 2018 2017 - 2018

Annual Volume Sales $11,338,563,682 $9,397,398,504 $6,498,483,316 -31%

Annual Unit Sales 7,342 6,290 4,450 -29%

Annual Listings Inventory 21,564 20,832 26,249 +26%

Annual Sales/Listings Ratio 34.5% 30.1% 17.5% -12.6%

Annual Expired Listings 936 974 1545 +59%

Annual Sale Price / Asking Price Ratio 101.7% 100.1% 97.2% -2.9%

Annual Average Days-On-Market 24 25 29 +16%

Annual Average Sale Price $1,544,343 $1,494,022 $1,460,333 -2.3%

1283

3120

844 372 312 336 296 269

586 446

3181

968 442

278 285 207 177 401

170

2223

864 368

215 206 128 112 198

201620172018

2017

2018

2016

Annual Unit Sales By Price: 2016 – 2017 – 2018

Annual Sales And Listing Summary: 2016 – 2017 – 2018


DETACHED HOME SALES

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016


2018 DOLLAR SALES DOWN 39% FROM 2017Unit sales down 36%. Average price/sq.ft. down 11%.

2018 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 6.9% – BUYERS’ MARKET On average: sale times up 9 days; sellers got 92.2% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSMarpole, SW Marine, South Cambie, Oakridge

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSPoint Grey, Dunbar, Shaughnessy, Kitsilano





DETACHED HOME SALES IN DETAIL

Sales Active Listings

Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Arbutus 2 27 $3,372,300 -15.7%

Cambie 2 40 $2,378,900 -10.7%

Coal Harbour 0 0 $0 --

Downtown 0 1 $0 --

Dunbar 8 83 $2,858,900 -5.9%

Fairview 0 6 $0 --

False Creek 0 2 $0 --

Kerrisdale 2 42 $3,077,500 -11.7%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Kitsilano 3 37 $2,167,100 -11.5%

MacKenzie Hts. 1 24 $3,335,300 -11.3%

Marpole 0 50 $2,156,200 -4.1%

Mt. Pleasant 0 7 $2,469,700 +1.4%

Oakridge 0 12 $2,838,600 -13.9%

Point Grey 7 50 $3,203,600 -18.0%

Quilchena 1 18 $3,368,300 -20.1%

S.W. Marine 0 21 $3,208,800 -0.2%

Sales ActiveListings

Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Shaughnessy 4 60 $5,390,800 -11.2%

South Cambie 0 20 $3,275,200 -13.6%

South Granville 3 68 $3,678,700 -18.4%

Southlands 0 20 $3,489,800 -.3%

University 1 19 $5,030,200 -20.3%

West End 0 3 $0 --

Yaletown 0 1 $0 --

TOTAL 34 611 $3,135,400 -11.8%

Detached Home Sales And Listings: 2018

Unit Sales By Area: December 2018

Detached Home Benchmark Price: 2018


TOWNHOUSE SALES

$547,503,881

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016


2018 DOLLAR SALES DOWN 29% FROM 2017Unit sales down 28%. Average price/sq.ft. up 2%.

2018 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 16.9% – BALANCED MARKET On average: sale times up 2 days; sellers got 96.8% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSMarpole, South Granville, Cambie, Oakridge

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSKitsilano, Yaletown, Fairview, University





TOWNHOUSE SALES IN DETAIL


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Arbutus 0 0 $0 --

Cambie 0 9 $1,179,200 +2.0%

Coal Harbour 0 2 $1,849,100 +0.5%

Downtown 0 7 $1,014,700 +0.3%

Dunbar 0 1 -- --

Fairview 4 14 $1,025,000 -3.8%

False Creek 0 1 $866,200 -7.0%

Kerrisdale 0 4 $1,508,300 +2.2%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Kitsilano 6 12 $1,016,000 -6.2%

MacKenzie Hts. 0 1 $0 --

Marpole 0 18 $1,087,700 +4.1%

Mt. Pleasant 0 6 $1,265,900 +2.9%

Oakridge 0 8 $1,565,000 +2.1%

Point Grey 0 2 $1,117,900 +1.5%

Quilchena 0 1 $1,508,400 +2.9%

S.W. Marine 0 2 $0 --


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Shaughnessy 0 3 $2,310,600 +4.0%

South Cambie 0 6 $1,812,700 +2.1%

South Granville 0 12 $1,633,800 +6.3%

Southlands 0 0 0 --

University 3 16 $1,705,800 +2.4%

West End 0 3 $1,228,000 +3.4%

Yaletown 3 9 $1,810,700 +4.9%

TOTAL 16 137 $1,236,500 -0.5%

Townhouse Sales And Listings: 2018


Townhouse Benchmark Price: 2018


CONDOMINIUM SALES

2017

2018

2016

2017

2018

2016


2018 DOLLAR SALES DOWN 23% FROM 2017Unit sales down 28%. Average price/sq.ft. up 6%.

2018 SALES/LISTINGS RATIO 26.7% – BALANCED MARKET On average: sale times up 2 days; sellers got 98.4% of asking price.

BEST MARKETS FOR BUYERSLower Lonsdale, Lynnmour, Hamilton, Upper Lonsdale

BEST MARKETS FOR SELLERSKitsilano, Fairview, Marpole, False Creek





CONDOMINIUM SALES IN DETAIL


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Arbutus 0 0 $0 --

Cambie 3 40 $669,300 -1.7%

Coal Harbour 5 77 $1,151,100 +5.6%

Downtown 34 248 $691,200 -3.8%

Dunbar 0 5 $629,600 -7.3%

Fairview 13 53 $778,000 -2.8%

False Creek 13 72 $811,800 -3.1%

Kerrisdale 2 25 $822,100 -5.3%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Kitsilano 15 57 $593,200 -6.4%

MacKenzie Hts. 0 0 $0 --

Marpole 6 35 $572,700 -.7%

Mt. Pleasant 2 3 $570,100 +1.1%

Oakridge 1 6 $1,049,100 -2.0%

Point Grey 1 11 $551,800 -6.2%

Quilchena 2 8 $997,200 -8.9%

S.W. Marine 1 13 $454,200 -4.6%


Benchmark Price

1-YearChange

Shaughnessy 1 2 $624,100 -1.1%

South Cambie 0 6 $908,100 +.7%

South Granville 1 5 $995,000 +1.6%

Southlands 0 2 $735,200 -6.7%

University 4 60 $928,200 +3.8%

West End 14 114 $652,500 -4.0%

Yaletown 21 173 $830,900 -3.2%

TOTAL 139 1,015 $783,700 -2.9%

Condominium Home Sales And Listings: 2018


Condominium Home Benchmark Price: 2018


MORTGAGE NEWS AND INSIGHTS REZA SABOUR, MBI - Mortgage Advisor - Director/Executive – Canadian Mortgage Broker’s Association (BC) - 778.229.4450 - [email protected] - www.sabourmortgages.com

2018 was a year of change in the Canadian mortgage industry.

With the implementation by federally-regulated lenders of a “stress-test” for all non-insured mortgages, we saw a 20% drop in buying power for the average borrower who had 20% to put down. This “test” – added to the stress-tested, insured mortgage policy which was introduced by the Feds in 2016 – resulted in a roughly 20% reduc-tion in mortgage origination as sales dropped, inventory piled up, and fewer buyers qualified for financing.

It seemed like the Feds, in their desire to cool the housing market, hit first time home buyers the hardest. Increasing rates played a large role in making qualifications more difficult, as the Bank of Canada increased the overnight lending rate, and thus the Prime rate, an un-precedented five times.

While the overall outlook heading into 2019 was one of warnings about further rate hikes, there has been a more tepid message com-ing out of Ottawa lately. With Alberta’s oil sector struggling again, the uncertainty of impending trade wars between the U.S. and its tradi-tional allies, and the current high price of housing, the Bank of Canada has hinted that it may slow its rate hikes this year – if not stop them altogether, thus derailing the Fed’s prior plan to cool the housing mar-ket even further. In fact, the Bank of Canada may be forced to slash rates again in order to stimulate the market, encourage borrowers, boost the economy and keep inflation in check.

And so, 2019 promises to be an interesting year for the housing mar-kets as all eyes turn to the Bank of Canada and the Feds. It will be a wait-and-see game for anyone who wants to jump into the market.

I will say this: If you’re waiting for lower rates and lower home prices, don’t hold your breath. While there is a possibility of lower

rates on the horizon, prices – especially in the condo and town-house markets – are not projected to drop by more than 5-10% in most areas. If you can qualify, it’s still a great time to be a buyer as the market has transitioned into a buyer’s market. And rates, while higher than they were, are still historically low.

TERM FIRSTQUARTER

SECOND QUARTER

THIRD QUARTER

FOURTH QUARTER

Prime Rate 3.95% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20%

5-YearQualifying

Rate5.34% 5.54% 5.54% 5.54%

5-Year Average

DiscountedRate

3.64% 3.74% 3.74% 3.74%

Mortgage Rate Forecast For 2019

Source: Bank of Canada; BCREA Economics; Rate SpyNote: Average 5-year discounted rate is the average rate available in the market, offered at a discount from the posted 5-year qualifying rate.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission


16,000 FollowersOver

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182,000 LEAD

S∇

2019

Referral relationships with top U.S. and international real estate companies

Powerful Leads & Referrals Channels

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royallepage.ca

Incredible Reach

per year from digital channels

100% Canadian

The Voice of Canadian Real Estate

Most Influential

Phil SoperPresident & CEO of Royal LePage named most influential leader in Canadian Real Estate.

#1 ⸋

◊ Based on market share and/or agent count. ∇ Google Analytics January 1 - December 31, 2018. ⸋ Phil Soper, Royal LePage President & CEO, named Most Influential Canadian every year from 2015 to 2018 by Swanepoel Power 200. º 2017. ● 2018.

FebruaryBy The Numbers

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KLEIN GROUP ROYAL LEPAGE SUSSEX

Klein Group Residential is a multiple award-winning team of real estate advisors specializing in re-sale, investment and new home marketing throughout the Greater Vancouver area.

With an emphasis on in-depth market insights, innovative marketing, a wide range of services and highly-personalized client care, we consistently deliver in any market – whether you’re buying or selling a principal resi-dence, a vacation getaway or an investment property. Trust, integrity and years of proven results are our hallmark.

At Klein Group we have been very fortunate and feel a great responsbility to give back. Here are some organizations we support:

• Royal LePage Shelter Foundation • Summits of Hope• Blanket BC Society• Dress for Success• Arts Club Theatre Company

• Chamber of Commerce, North and West Vancouver • Friends of Tupper Alumni Scholarship Fund• REALTORS® Care Foundation

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vancouver west real estate market report 2018 in … · 2020. 1. 12. · on average: sale times up...

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