vaneck viewpoint · 2 vaneck viewpoint ... -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% gold australian fixed income global...

VanEck ViewPoint™

Global economic perspectives

December 2018

2 VanEck ViewPoint™

Market summaryDuring the past quarter markets experienced a flight to defensive assets with both Australian and International fixed income delivering positive returns. Although US fundamentals appear strong, investor sentiment for risk assets turned as fears of a US recession heightened when the US interest rate curve inverted, albiet briefly.

Small caps suffered the most. The much-loved technology sector underperformed significantly. The price of oil dropped from its 2018 peak as fear of a shortfall in supply turned into a glut as OPEC members agreed to increase production. The energy sector was not left unscathed. Gold bulls rejoiced as bullion rose in US dollar terms. Geopolitical events combined with US growth concerns contributed to market volatility as the US 10-year yield dropped below 3%. All eyes continue to be on the Fed’s pace of rate rises into 2019. With monetary policy becoming less accommodative 2018 has seen very few assets deliver positive returns.

Elsewhere Japan’s economy experienced a sharp contraction attributed to a string of natural disasters as capital expenditure dropped. In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May changed course and pulled the planned vote on the Brexit deal negotiated with the European Union.

Emerging markets valuations, relative to developed markets, look compelling. A reversal of Fed tightening due to global uncertainty could see US dollar strength diminish and global growth re-couple with the US which would bode well for emerging markets. Notwithstanding trade tensions, and following a tumultuous 2018 China A-shares could see upside in 2019 as the impact of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) deleveraging efforts and the potential impact ahead of its stimulative policies boost economic growth.

Into the end of 2018 the Australian economy has slowed, after a spurt of growth in the first half of the year created doubts that the RBA’s next move would be up. The RBA cash rate has stayed at 1.5% throughout 2018. On the ASX, at a sector level real estate delivered positive returns as the 10-year yield dropped. The remaining sectors were in the red with technology and energy following their global counterparts.

Source: Bloomberg, 30 September 2018 to 7 December 2018, returns in Australian Dollars. Global Equities is MSCI World ex Australia Index, Australian Equities is S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Australian Fixed Income is Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ yrs Index, Global Fixed Income is Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Hedged AUD Index, Australian Bank Bills is Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index, Emerging Markets is MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Gold is Gold Spot US$/oz, Australian Small Caps is S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index, US Small Caps is Russell 2000 Index, US Equities is S&P 500 Index, UK Equities is FTSE 100 Index, Japanese Equities is Nikkei 225 Index, European Equities is MSCI Europe Index.

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GoldAustralian Fixed Income

Global Fixed IncomeAustralian Bank Bills

Emerging MarketsAustralian Equities

UK EquitiesUS Equities

European EquitiesGlobal Equities

Japanese EquitiesAustralian Small Caps

US Small Caps

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Exhibit 1: Index returns in December quarter

Exhibit 2: Global and Australian equity sectors December quarter performance

Source: Bloomberg 30 September 2018 to 7 December 2018, returns in Australian Dollars. Consumer discretionary is MSCI World Consumer Discretionary Index / S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index, Financials is MSCI World Financials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index, Materials is MSCI World Materials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index, Healthcare is MSCI World Heath care Index / S&P/ASX 200 Heath care Index, Utilities is MSCI World Utilities Index / S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index, Property is MSCI World REIT Index / S&P/ASX 200 AREIT Index, Consumer staples is MSCI World Consumer Staples Index / S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index, Information technology is MSCI World Information Technology Index / S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index, Energy is MSCI World Energy Index / S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index, Industrials is MSCI World Industrials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index, Communications is MSCI World Telecommunications Index / S&P/ASX 200 Telecommunications Index.

Global economic perspectives – December 2018 3

Little respite from rough seas

The withdrawal of global central bank liquidity plus trade war spillovers have combined to take the edge off global growth. Leading indices, Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs), export orders and industrial commodities prices are all pointing in the same direction. Markets are being pushed back and forth by every trade war headline. Encouragingly, growing evidence of pain and dislocation seems to be motivating some players to try to reach a compromise.

Incidents like the Huawei case make it clear that this is more than a technocratic negotiation. This is a battle between an ageing hegemon and a rising power. It will take careful and open-hearted negotiation, not bullying (by either side) to reach a positive conclusion and that end is not yet in sight.

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Exhibit 3: Global trade volumes and global PMI

Exhibit 4: Industrial commodities prices

Source: JP Morgan, CPB, NBER

Source: Bloomberg. Rebased to the beginning of Jan 2017. Crude oil in US Crude Oil WIT, Copper is CME Copper 3 month commodity price, Lumber is Generic 1st Lumber Futures.


All eyes on the curve

Softer equity markets and tightening financial conditions, as well as the passing of peak fiscal stimulus have seen a moderate slowdown in US growth. There has however been a surge in recession fears and in turn a growing hope that Fed tightening is over.

There are definitely softer patches in the US economy:

• Reminiscent of 2006/2007, housing has peaked after a sharp run-up in prices

• The hoped-for surge in business capital expenditure from tax cuts has petered out

• The US yield curve has flattened, a generally reliable forecaster of recession risk.

But the US economy is slowing from above-trend, labour market indicators and consumer confidence are firm and the Fed Funds rate is still slightly south of neutral. So a recession is by no means baked in.

The key to whether the US has reached the end of the cycle remains the labour market and in particular how much remaining slack there is. While the unemployment rate is currently low (normally consistent with full employment) there is still a large cohort of discouraged workers.

This would explain the so-far modest wages pressures which in turn has allowed the Fed time to gradually deflate growth, minimising the risk of a hard landing. Fed Chairman Powell’s change in tone should be viewed through this prism; the Fed is now reluctant to provide too much forward guidance as they are becoming more data dependent.

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Exhibit 5: US yield curve and consumer confidence curve

Exhibit 6: US high yield and investment grade spreads

Source: Bloomberg, Conference Board NBER, Confidence Curve is broad consumer expectations minus present situation (3MMA)

Source: Bloomberg, US High Yield is Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index and US Investment Grade is Bloomberg Barclays US Liquid Corporates Index.


Markets have over-reacted to the change in rhetoric, pricing out virtually all hikes. This partly seems due to equity market instability - the return of the “Fed Put”. It seems too early for the Fed Put. For one thing, the equity market is flat on the year after a years-long rally - hardly an emergency (as confirmed by broader economic confidence which remains intact).

Further, in past instances where the Fed has eased, two further conditions were almost always present: below-trend growth and financial dislocation. Neither currently applies. Credit spreads, while at their widest for the year, are nowhere near danger levels. But they are starting to flash a warning: liquidity is currently poor; alongside the huge surge in low quality credit in recent years this definitely bears watching.

So, on the one hand, the central case on the US economy for the moment is muddle through - a positive for equities. But, offsetting this, interest rates are currently pricing a more dire scenario. As the clouds clear, rate hikes will come back into view. So these two forces may well offset.

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Exhibit 7: Fed funds target, market and Federal Open Market Committee forecasts

Exhibit 8: Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index

Source: Bloomber, Federal Reserve

Source: Bloomberg, NBER, Goldman Sachs


The probability that markets have got ahead of themselves on Fed dovishness also puts at risk attempts to short the US dollar; a “2019 trade” some investors are romancing. Renewed US dollar strength and a bounce in US real yields will both undermine a near term gold rally.

Credit tightening (both cost and availability) will also restrict one of the biggest factors in the past few years’ share price surges: corporate buybacks. By reducing shares on issue, buybacks have been a big factor in lifting earnings per share.

As interest costs rise it makes less sense for companies to issue debt and use the proceeds to retire shares, taking away a valuation prop from the market. With valuations still tough, this is an argument for choppy sideways, not a recommencement of the bull market. It is also an argument for a continuation of the tentative revival of value versus growth strategies.

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Exhibit 9: Gold has rallied

Exhibit 10: US growth versus value

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, US Growth is MSCI USA Growth Index, US Value is MSCI USA Value Index


The case for rotation

As storm clouds abate and valuations remain favourable the case for allocation to Europe remain. While continuing brawls over Italy, banking fears and growth deceleration plus a flight to the US dollar undermined a rotation. As expected, Italy’s problems are being resolved, in turn reducing pressure on the European Union (EU) banking system. While leading indicators have softened, they still imply trend-like growth. Data surprises have been less negative than in the US.

However, two political squabbles remain.

The Gillet Jaune protests which originated in Paris, while a negative on sentiment, seem likely to result in a pick-up in EU area growth via an easing of the EU fiscal straitjacket - first in France but then spreading to other core nations and on to the periphery.

Brexit remains an issue - but primarily a problem for the UK, not the single currency. The onus will continue to be on the UK to come up with a deal, or fold. The chances of a second referendum/no Brexit are rising. Of course, so are the chances of a disastrous hard Brexit - both at the expense of an acceptable negotiated exit.

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To leave the EU To remain a member of the EU Would not vote Don't know

Exhibit 11: Eurozone GDP and sentiment

Exhibit 12: UK poll of whether to leave the EU

Source: DG ECFIN, Eurostat, CEPR. European sentiment is averaged consumer and industrial sentiment.

Source: NatCen Social Research


Temporary eclipse of rising sun

Negative data surprises and a question mark over monetary policy, plus a spillover impact on electronics sector output from trade ructions kept Japan on the back foot this quarter. On a relative basis valuations are compelling.

Q3 GDP came in -2.5% quarter on quarter annualised, the worst result since 2014, and well below market expectations. Capital expenditure slumped, although the weakness was attributed to natural disasters. Labour market indicators and consumption remain solid.

The first half of 2019 should be strong, as in previous instances, a hike in the consumption tax rate (this time from 8 to 10%) in the second half of the year should pull spending forward.

Some investors were also unnerved by Bank of Japan (BoJ) actions.

The BoJ’s policy of stabilising Japanese Government Bond (JGB) interest rates has become easier to achieve, requiring lower purchases of JGBs than the annual 80 trillion purchase target initiated in 2014. The BoJ has also been less active in stabilising stock prices.

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Exhibit 13: Japan annualised GDP quarter–on–quarter

Exhibit 14: Bank of Japan, JGB holdings

Source: Bloomberg. Economic and Social Research Institute Japan

Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Japan


China and emerging markets

There is an old African saying, “when elephants fight it is the grass that suffers”.

Emerging Asia, in particular, and emerging markets in general have been casualties of the US China trade conflict either directly through disrupted supply chains, or indirectly through US dollar liquidity issues, interest rates and through trade diversion.

Nonetheless, emerging market versus developed market valuation differentials remain compelling. But timing depends on a sunnier global outlook.

While the path of trade negotiations is hard to predict, it is easier to predict a pick-up in growth led by Chinese policy. China is the world’s second-biggest economy - and with far higher variability in outcome (and hence impulse) than the US.

Just as, for many years, investors have been warned “don’t fight the Fed” we would warn not to fight the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) - especially since the Chinese Government is also willing to use activist fiscal policy.

The PBOC switched from the brake to the accelerator a few months back; expect to see the results from Q1 2019. We expect positive spillovers across Asian growth; and, other things equal, spillovers into emerging market equities.

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Exhibit 15: Valuations reinforce PBOC views of growth trends of Chinese economy

Exhibit 16: Swings in lending rates demonstrate China growth and PBOC need to control liquidity

Source: MSCI, UBS. Data as of October 31, 2018. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Source: Bloomberg, Cornerstone Macro. Data as of November 15, 2018. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


Banking down under

Like several other countries, Australia saw an unexpected slowing in growth in Q3. Fears have been exacerbated by a pronounced downturn in the housing market. At this stage, a sense of proportion is required. Growth has slowed but remains around trend. And the housing pullback is dwarfed by the scale of the run-up over recent years.

It is ironic that the housing slowdown (although due) was triggered by APRA changing lending guidelines in a move aimed at shoring up bank balance sheets. Instead, investors are now pondering whether housing price slumps will damage banks.

We think that bank balance sheets will be fine - though, exacerbated by pressures from the Royal Commission, profits will be on the back foot. So we expect growth to continue; but those hoping for a near-term rate hike can stand down.

The Victorian state election marked the start of a series of elections; and, as such, sent a tremor through the Australian body politic. Elections are due in NSW in March; and a Federal election is expected in May. With Labor firming as favourites, it’s worth thinking about a couple of policy influences on investments.

First, the negative gearing and capital gains changes should put downward pressure on existing housing prices. Note that there should also be a pull-forward effect: since purchases prior to legislation should be grandfathered for negative gearing, there will be an incentive for investors to buy ahead.

The impact on housing construction should be muted, since new construction is exempted from the negative gearing changes. The changes should also impede banks’ lending growth to investors, over and above the impact from APRA guidelines. The removal of cash refunds for excess franking credits will also impact negatively on high dividend/high franking stocks. Again, the banks will be caught in the pincers.

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Exhibit 17: Australian nominal median house prices

Exhibit 18: Two-party preferred

Source: ABS, REIA, Melbourne Institute

Source: The Australian, Newspoll


Range of VanEck Vectors Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on ASX

ETF Name ASX code Index Management costs (% p.a.)

Australian Broad Based

Australian Equal Weight ETF MVW MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index 0.35%

S&P/ASX Franked Dividend ETF FDIV S&P/ASX Franked Dividend Index 0.35%

Australian Sector

Australian Banks ETF MVB MVIS Australia Banks Index 0.28%

Australian Property ETF MVA MVIS Australia A-REITs Index 0.35%

Australian Resources ETF MVR MVIS Australia Resources Index 0.35%

Australian Small and Mid Companies

Small Companies Masters ETF MVS MVIS Small-Cap Dividend Payers Index 0.49%

S&P/ASX MidCap ETF MVE S&P/ASX MidCap 50 Index 0.45%

International

ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF CETF CSI 300 Index 0.72%

China New Economy ETF CNEW CSI MarketGrader China New Economy Index 0.95%

MSCI Multifactor Emerging Markets Equity ETF EMKT MSCI Emerging Markets Diversified Multiple-Factor Index (AUD) 0.69%

Morningstar Wide Moat ETF MOAT Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index™ 0.49%

MSCI World ex Australia Quality ETF QUAL MSCI World ex Australia Quality Index 0.40%

International Sustainable Investing

MSCI International Sustainable Equity ETF ESGI MSCI World ex Australia ex Fossil Fuel Select SRI and Low Carbon Capped Index 0.55%

Global Sector

FTSE Global Infrastructure (Hedged) ETF IFRA FTSE Developed Core Infrastructure 50/50 Hedged into AUD Index 0.52%

Gold Miners ETF GDX NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index 0.51%

Australian Fixed Income

Australian Corporate Bond Plus ETF PLUS Markit iBoxx AUD Corporates Yield Plus Index 0.32%

Australian Floating Rate ETF FLOT Bloomberg AusBond Credit FRN 0+Yr Index 0.22%


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