VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL• DEMOGRAPHIC

TRANSITION: PROCESS OF CHANGE IN A SOCIETY’S POPULATION FROM A CONDITION OF HIGH CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES & LOW RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE TO A CONDITION OF LOW CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES, LOW RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE, & HIGHER TOTAL POPULATION

• ECUMENE – PORTION OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE PERMANENTLY OCCUPIED BY HUMAN SETTLEMENT

STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH- VERY HIGH BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE VIRTUALLY NO LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASE

STAGE 2: HIGH GROWTH-RAPIDLY DECLINING DEATH RATES & VERY HIGH BIRTH RATES PRODUCE VERY HIGH NATURAL INCREASE

CAPE VERDE ENTERED STAGE 2 ABOUT 1950 – WHY?

STAGE 3: DECREASING GROWTH-BIRTH RATES RAPIDLY DECLINE, DEATH RATES CONTINUE TO DECLINE & NIR BEGIN TO MODERATE

STAGE 4: LOW GROWTH-VERY LOW BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE VIRTUALLY NO LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASE & POSSIBLY A DECLINE

DECLINING BIRTH RATES2 STRATEGIES UTILIZED: 1) EDUCATION & HEALTH CARE 2) CONTRACEPTION

• T. MALTHUS 1766-1834 AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION

• POPULATION GROWS GEOMETRICALLY BUT FOOD ARITHMETICALLY SO WE’RE DOOMED

• NEO-MALTHUSIANS DUE TO NIR 20TH C.• DIDN’T ANTICIPATE MORE ENTERING STAGE 2

& MORE RESOURCES THAN FOOD BECOMING DEPLETED

MALTHUS’ THEORY, CRITICS & REALITY• RESOURCE DEPLETION: YES BUT…• WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION HAS

OUTPACED NIR SINCE 1950• INDIA’S WHEAT PRODUCTION WAY UP,

RICE NOT SO MUCH• TECHNOLOGY, AVAILABLE LAND,

HIGHER YLD SEEDS ETC.• PROBLEM IS DISTRIBUTION NOT

PRODUCTION• POPULATION GROWING BUT A

POSITIVE BECASUE…..• MORE PEOPLE STIMULATE ECONOMY,

FOOD PRODUCTION, MORE CONSUMERS GENERATE GREATER DEMAND FOR GOODS LEADING TO MORE JOBS

• MARXISTS: WORLD HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES BUT NEED TO DISTRIBUTE THEM EQUALLY

POSSIBLE STAGE 5? JAPANGRAYING NATION: POPULATION OF 65+ GREATER THAN 14 & UNDER

• 127 MILL TO 95 MILL 2050 & WITH DECLINE DRAMATIC SHIFT• LABOR? JAPAN’S ETHNOCENTRIC CULTURE DISCOURAGES IMMIGRATION• HEALTH CARE COSTS WILL SKYROCKET, SCHOOLS WILL CLOSE, UNEMPLOY.• SOLUTION: ENCOURAGE JAPANESE TO WORK LONGER, MORE WOMEN IN

WORKFORCE, AT HOME HEALTH CARE BUT WOMEN WORKING AFFECTS BIRTHS

• JAPAN NEEDS A CULTURE SHIFT AWAY FROM GET MARRIED, HAVE KIDS & STAY AT HOME OR GO TO SCHOOL, GET A CAREER & STAY SINGLE

POPULATION FUTURES – CHINA & INDIA• FULL CYCLE STAGES 1-4: LITTLE TO NO NIR

TO LITTLE OR NO NIR• DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES UNDERLIE

PROCESS:• TOTAL POP MUCH GREATER IN 4• CBR & CDR HIGH IN 1 & LOW IN 4• CHINA & INDIA MOST POPULOUS: MORE

THAN 1/3 OF WORLD POPULATION LIVE IN CH. & IN.

• INDIAN INDEPENDENCE 1947 & GROWTH COMMENCED & 1ST TO ATTEMPT NATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM: STERILIZATION

• NOW FAMILY WELFARE• CHINA’S 1 CHILD POLICY 1980: PERMIT

TO HAVE CHILDREN, $ PYMTS, BETTER HOUSING, MORE LAND IF RURAL BUT

• LESSENED SOME DUE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: COUNSELING ON BC OPTIONS, FAMILY PLANNING FEE IF YOU WANT A 2ND CHILD TO COVER ADMIN COSTS

• AS OF YET, LARGE INCREASE IN BIRTH RATE HASN’T HAPPENED