v:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt crgaqs: initial camx results presentation to the gorge study...
TRANSCRIPT
V:\corporate\marketing\overview.ppt
CRGAQS:Initial CAMx Results
Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team
ByENVIRON International Corporation
October 31, 2006 (boo!)
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Today’s Presentation
• Describe initial CAMx simulations– Model configuration– Performance evaluation metrics
• Performance for PM and light extinction
• Next Steps
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Model Configuration
-2520 -1800 -1080 -360 360 1080 1800 2520
-1800
-1080
-360
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SW C AA C olum bia R iver G orge D om ain
36 km 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to ( 2592, 1944)12 km 131 x 116 (-2640, 168) to (-1068, 1560)04 km 146 x 137 (-2164, 644) to (-1580, 1192)
36 km
12 km
04 km
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Model Configuration
• CAMx version 4.40
• “Run 1” configuration– Maximize model speed
• Mechanism 4 – CF (static 2-mode PM chemistry)
• Bott advection solver
• No PiG
• OMP parallel processing on Linux quad-CPU
– O’Brien Kv profile with 0.1 m2/s minimum– 10-day model spin-up period
• 36-km grid only first 8 days
• 36/12-km grid last 2 days
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Model Configuration
• Episodes– August 10-22, 2004
• Meteorology from MM5 Run 6, 36/12-km grids• Flexi-nesting to the 4-km grid
– November 4-18, 2004 • Meteorology from MM5 Run 3, all grids
• Identified issues– Small temporal profile problem for fires– No on-road vehicle ammonia emissions in
4-km grid
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Performance Evaluation
• Review spatial plots
• Review statistical performance– Species
• Individual PM species
• Total PM2.5 and PM10
• Light scattering/extinction
– Monitors• IMPROVE, Gorge sites, FRM/STN
• Focus on sites along Gorge
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Performance Evaluation
– Metrics• Fractional bias and gross error
• Regression and correlation
– Need to develop time series of scattering and extinction
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Performance Evaluation
-2100 -2000 -1900 -1800 -1700800
900
1000
B onnev illeM t.Z ion M em aloose
Sauvie Is land
Tow al R dW ishramCO G O 1
CO RI1
M O H O 1
7 M ile H ill
S te igerw aldStrunk R d
G orge m onitors (9)C ASTN ET (0)IM PR OVE (3)EP A FR M (7)EP A STN (1)
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Performance Evaluation
August 14, noon Pristine
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Performance Evaluation
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Performance Evaluation
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Statistics – IMPROVEAugust NO3 August SO4
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Statistics – IMPROVEAugust NH4 August OC
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Statistics – IMPROVEAugust EC August Primary Fine
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Statistics – IMPROVEAugust Primary Coarse August Total PM2.5
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Statistics – IMPROVEAugust Total PM10 August Bext
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Statistics – GorgeAugust NO3 August SO4
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Statistics – GorgeAugust NH4 August OC
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Statistics – GorgeAugust EC August Bscat
Bscat (1/Mm)
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0 20 40 60 80 100Gorge Nephalometer
CA
Mx
04A
ug
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n1
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Statistics – STNAugust NO3 August SO4
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Statistics – GorgeAugust NH4 August OC
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Statistics – GorgeAugust EC August FRM PM2.5
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Initial August Modeling
• NO3, SO4, and NH4 were mostly under predicted– CAMx predictions higher at Gorge sites
later in episode, but data were not available
– More NH3 may increase NO3 and NH4
• OC was mostly over predicted at IMPROVE and Gorge sites– Driven by fires
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Initial August Modeling
• EC was over predicted at IMPROVE but under predicted at Gorge sites– Reasons not clear – is Gorge EC backed
out from aetholometer readings?
• Total PM2.5 looks good– Balance of component over and under
predictions
• CM and PM10 were mostly under predicted at IMPROVE site
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Initial August Modeling
• Reconstructed scattering and extinction look good– Due to good PM2.5 predictions and dry
conditions• Contribution from under predicted
hygroscopic salts just about balance contribution from over predicted carbon
– CM doesn’t play a large role in visibility
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Performance Evaluation
November 10, noon Pristine
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Performance Evaluation
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Performance Evaluation
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Statistics – IMPROVENovember NO3 November SO4
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Statistics – IMPROVENovember NH4 November OC
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Statistics – IMPROVENovember EC November Primary Fine
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Statistics – IMPROVENovember Primary Coarse November Total PM2.5
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Statistics – IMPROVENovember Total PM10 November Bext
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Statistics – GorgeNovember NO3 November SO4
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Statistics – GorgeNovember NH4 November OC
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Statistics – GorgeNovember EC November Bscat
Bext scattering [1/Mm]
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Nephalometer Data [1/Mm]
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no
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1 R
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Statistics – STNNovember NO3 November SO4
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Statistics – GorgeNovember NH4 November OC
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Statistics – GorgeNovember EC November FRM PM2.5
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Initial November Modeling
• More NO3 and SO4 was observed and predicted than in the August episode.
• OC and PM2.5 were much lower over domain than in August since wildfire season was over
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Initial November Modeling
• SO4 performed well at IMPROVE sites, but was under predicted at the GORGE and STN sites
• NO3 performance was scattered
• NH4 was mostly under predicted
• OC and EC performance OK, but there were some over prediction outliers
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Initial November Modeling
• Primary fine and coarse (soil) was over predicted at all IMPROVE sites on all dates– Fine PM emissions may not reflect
squelching effect of recent rains
• Reconstructed total PM2.5 and PM10 slightly over predicted– Driven by carbon and primary over
predictions
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Initial November Modeling
• Extinction at IMPROVE sites was generally too low, while scattering at Gorge sites exhibits little skill– Under predicted salts are not contributing
sufficient scattering– More NH3 might not help– Lack of modeled fog probably is not
generating enough sulfates and nitrates
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Moving Forward
• Sensitivity/Diagnostic runs– Revised emissions (fix identified
problems)– Kv sensitivity
• CMAQ approach• Alternative minimum Kz
– Met sensitivity for August? (use Run 3)– Increase NH3 emissions– Reduce primary fine/coarse emissions in
November