vehicle safety: where it’s been and where it’s heading safety: where it’s been and where...

www.iihs.org

Vehicle Safety: Where It’s Been and Where It’s heading

Washington Automotive Press AssociationWashington, D.C. ● January 15, 2015

Adrian K. Lund, Ph.D.President, IIHS and HLDI

www.iihs.orgwww.iihs.org

50th Anniversary crash test1959 Bel Air vs. 2009 Malibu

www.iihs.org

Who are we?

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,

founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and

educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses —

deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the

nation’s roads.

The Highway Loss Data Institute,

founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through

scientific studies of insurance data representing the human

and economic losses resulting from the ownership and

operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing

insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.

Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.


IIHS members write 85% of private passenger market• Acceptance Insurance

• ACE Private Risk Services

• Affirmative Insurance

• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation

• Alfa Insurance

• Allstate Insurance Group

• American Family Mutual Insurance

• American National Property and Casualty Company

• Ameriprise Auto & Home

• Amica Mutual Insurance Company

• Auto Club Enterprises

• Auto Club Group

• Auto-Owners Insurance

• Aviva Insurance

• Bankers Insurance Group

• Bituminous Insurance Companies

• California Casualty Group

• California State Auto Group

• Capital Insurance Group

• Chubb & Son

• Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Commonwealth Mutual Insurance Company of America

• Concord Group Insurance Companies

• COUNTRY Financial

• CSAA Insurance Group

• CSE Insurance Group

• Direct General Corporation

• Erie Insurance Group

• Esurance

• Farm Bureau Financial Services

• Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan

• Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho

• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies

• Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa

• Farmers Mutual of Nebraska

• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies

• Frankenmuth Insurance

• Freestone Insurance Company

• Gainsco Insurance

• GEICO Group

• The General Insurance

• Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Goodville Mutual Casualty Company

• Grange Insurance

• Hallmark Insurance Company

• Hanover Insurance Group

• The Hartford

• Haulers Insurance Company, Inc.

• Horace Mann Insurance Companies

• ICW Group

• Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company

• Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company

• Infinity Property & Casualty

• Kemper Preferred

• Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance

• Liberty Mutual Insurance Company

• Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Maryland Automobile Insurance Fund

• Mercury Insurance Group

• MetLife Auto & Home

• Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company

• MiddleOak

• Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company

• MMG Insurance

• Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company

• Nationwide

• New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group

• Nodak Mutual Insurance Company

• Norfolk & Dedham Group

• North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Northern Neck Insurance Company

• Ohio Mutual Insurance Group

• Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance

• Old American Indemnity Company

• Oregon Mutual Insurance

• Pekin Insurance

• PEMCO Insurance

• Plymouth Rock Assurance

• Progressive Corporation

• QBE

• The Responsive Auto Insurance Company

• Rockingham Group

• Safe Auto Insurance

• Safeco Insurance

• Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company

• SECURA Insurance

• Sentry Insurance

• Shelter Insurance

• Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America

• South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company

• Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company

• State Auto Insurance Companies

• State Farm

• Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company

• Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies

• Tower Group Companies

• The Travelers Companies

• United Educators

• USAA

• Utica National Insurance Group

• Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance

• West Bend Mutual Insurance Company

• Western National

• Westfield Insurance

• XL Group plc

• Zurich North America


Where are we?Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center

Washington, DC

Virginia

Charlottesville

Arlington

Virginia

www.iihs.org

0

5

10

15

20

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10

US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate1950-2012

motor vehicle crash deaths

unemployment rate

8%

33,561

www.iihs.org

0

5

10

15

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10

US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate1950-2012

unemployment rate

deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled

11.3 per billion

8%

www.iihs.org

-80

-40

0

40

80

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10

Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate1951-2012

unemployment rate

deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled


Vehicle improvements have been key to reductions in motor vehicle crash fatality risk

0

20

40

60

80

1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10

Motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled

1950-2012

www.iihs.org

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

calendar year

actual rates

expected rates

Vehicle and non-vehicle factors and highway safetyFatal crash rates per million vehicles, actual vs. expected for 1985 fleet

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New car assessment programs (NCAPs)By year of inception

1978 1995 1997 2006 2011

1993 1995 1999 2010 2012

www.iihs.org

Front small overlap,beginning 2012

IIHS crashworthiness tests

Front moderate overlap,beginning 1995

Side impact,beginning 2003

Rear crash (whiplash mitigation),beginning 2004

Roof strength,beginning 2009


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

poor

marginal

acceptable

good

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

poor

marginal

acceptable

good

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

poor

marginal

acceptable

good

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

poor

marginal

acceptable

good

Crash protection ratings by model yearImprovements: Beginning in 1995

Frontal

Side

Rear Roof

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Small overlap crashes

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Vehicle occupant deaths by point of impact, 2012

Front

Side

Rear

Other (mostly rollover)

11,426 died in frontal crashes

www.iihs.org

small overlap

24%

moderate overlap

24%center19%

underride14%

low severity11%

full width6%

override2%

Serious injuries in frontal crashes, by configurationVehicles rated good in IIHS moderate overlap crash test

www.iihs.org


Kia Soul

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Kia Soul

2013 model 2015 model

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Front small overlap tests since 2012

• 134 small overlap front tests conducted since 2012

– Cars: minicars, small, midsize, midsize luxury, large luxury

– SUVs: small, midsize, midsize luxury

– Minivans

• 19 models tested twice

– 17 redesigns and modifications improved structural rating

– 17 improved overall rating

www.iihs.org

Examples of structural modifications

engagement structures attached to frame rail side frame structure

bumper beam reinforcement occupant compartment reinforcement

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Weight change associated with improved structure

-9 pounds

+114 pounds

Honda developed single-piece

hot-stamped door-stiffener ring

Weight

increase

(lbs.)

Rogue 114

Q50 112

Soul 106

Legacy 97

CR-V 95

Odyssey 59

Jetta 59

Sonata 44

Camry 11

CX-5 2

Accord -7

Fit -9

Forte -18

floor support underbody

deflector

Nissan Rogue

Honda Fit


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015

poor

marginal

acceptable

good

Small overlap ratings by model yearJanuary 2015

www.iihs.org


2015 Kia Sedona

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Santa Claus delivers 2015 TOP SAFETY PICKsPublic release December 23

www.iihs.org

Requirements for 2015 TOP SAFETY PICK awards

rating in moderate overlap front, side, roof strength

and head restraint tests

or rating in small overlap front test

&

meet TOP SAFETY PICK criteria

&Advanced or Superior rating for front crash prevention


TSP+ criteria change to reflect new technology

Higher bar encourages improvement

• 2012-13 TSP+ criteria based on crash test

performance only

– Many models offered front crash prevention systems

• 2014 TSP+ added Basic or better FCP rating

– 60 models now offer higher FCP performance

• Change for 2015 TSP+

– Advanced or Superior FCP rating

– Basic FCP rating still eligible for TSP

www.iihs.org

TOP SAFETY PICK winners by calendar year

year

2006 9 Gold 12 Silver

07 23

08 64

09 94

10 58

11 102

12 136

13 30 TSP+ 126 TSP

14 43 TSP+ 25 TSP

15 33 TSP+ 38 TSP


Can new crash avoidance technology help in the same way as crashworthiness?

www.iihs.org

The Google visionAutonomous vehicles delivering occupants to pre-set destinations


Google car

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Audi Piloted DrivingSan Francisco to Las Vegas, January 4-5, 2015


Driver assistance featuresRadar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS


Vehicles without and with ESC


Effects on crash riskPercent change in crash rates for vehicles with standard ESC vs.

optional or no ESC, updated May 2010

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20all crashes fatal injury

all crashes

multiple-vehicle

single-vehicle


Front crash prevention systems are reducing front to rear crashes

www.iihs.org

Changes in physical damage claim frequency for front crash prevention systems

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Volvo CitySafety

Honda Accord(with LDW)

Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru(with LDW)

Volvo(with LDW)

PDL

collision

warning only warning with autobrakelow speed

www.iihs.org

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Volvo CitySafety

HondaAccord

(with LDW)

Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru(with LDW)

Volvo(with LDW)

MedPay

PIP

Changes in injury claim frequency for front crash prevention systems

-80%

-40%

0%

40%

80%

Volvo City Safety Honda Accord(includes LDW)

Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo(includes LDW)

warning only warning with autobrake

warning only warning with autobrake

low speed

bodily injury liability

www.iihs.org

Front crash preventionAutomatic braking tests at 12 mph and 25 mph


BMW comparison video12 mph tests


Front crash prevention ratings2014 and 2015 models

117

38

2419

70

46

3327

0

40

80

120

not qualified/not available

basic advanced superior

2014

2015


Adaptive headlights

withwithout

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Adaptive headlightsPercent change in vehicle damage claims per insured vehicle year

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Acura Mazda Mercedes Volvo

PDL collision

pe

rcen

t d

ecre

ase

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Nighttime (6 pm to 6 am) crashes on curves

5,479,247 police-reportedcrashes in 2012

other reported crashes

night, curved road section

multi-vehicle, night, curved road section

47,383 multi-vehicle,

night, curved section

= 0.85% of all crashes

= 1.23% of

multi-vehicle crashes

199,905 (3.57%)

night, curved section

www.iihs.org

Adaptive headlightsPercent change in injury claims per insured vehicle year

-20

-10

0

10


Bodily injury liability

-40

-30

-20

-10

0


MedPay

PIPMedPay and PIP

(1st party injuries)


Pedestrian detection


The impact of advanced driver assist systems on insurance(and safety) will occur gradually as technology penetrates the fleet


New vehicle series with front crash preventionBy model year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

standard optional not available


Registered vehicles with front crash preventionBy calendar year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

standard optional not available

www.iihs.org

Registered vehicles with front crash prevention,actual and predictedBy calendar year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

predicted

actual


2020

2030

2040

2050

front crashprevention

lane departurewarning

adaptiveheadlights

blind spotwarning

rearcamera

rear parkingsensors

without mandate

hypothetical 2015 mandate

Calendar year features reach 95% of registered vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate


In the meantime, there are other actions we can take to achieve Vision Zero that can mitigate driver distraction and error


August 2011


Low-hanging fruit

• Roundabouts

• Primary safety belt use laws

• Mandatory helmet use for all motorcyclists

• Strengthen graduated driver licensing laws

• Lower speed limits

• Automated enforcement of red light running and speeding

• Sobriety checkpoints

These are proven countermeasures that can reduce deaths and

injuries on our highways as soon as implemented.


If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts

• Approximately 46,000 crashes prevented in 2012 including:

– 184 fatal crashes

– 31,000 injury crashes

• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours

• Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons


Fatalities in red light running crashes2011

number

Driver in red light running vehicle 247

Passenger in red light running vehicle 83

Occupants non-red light running vehicle 341

Pedestrian, bicyclist and personal conveyance 43

TOTAL 714


Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during 2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs. expected rates without cameras

-30

-20

-10

0

red light runningfatal crashes

fatal crashesat intersections

with signal lights


Driver fails to stop for red traffic light

www.iihs.org

Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries,and property damage on the highway

vehicle safety: where it’s been and where it’s heading safety: where it’s been and where...

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