Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System for

October 3-14, 2010, New Delhi, India

A ProposalA Proposal

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dept. of Science & Technology

Some Historical Facts

The initiative of a Canadian, M M Robinson, led to the first official Commonwealth Games in 1930 at Hamilton.

Since then, the Commonwealth Games (CWG) are being organized regularly at an interval of 4 years.

Beginning from 1930, there have been so far 17 such events.

The 18th CWG is being held in Melbourne, Australia during 15-26 March,2006.

The 19th Commonwealth Games will be held during 3-14 October,2010 in New Delhi.

3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India

• The CWG is the biggest international event in the recent past of the city of Delhi. • Seventy One (71) countries will be participating.• The opening and closing ceremony is slated to be at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium on Oct 03 and Oct 14 respectively. • The details of venues for various sport events are yet to be decided.

Proposal for Setting up of Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System

Why do we need this?How can we do it? What are the requirements?What are the opportunities?What is the benefit to the Nation?

3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India

Why do we need such a forecast?The comfort and safety of spectators -- information and warnings for specific venue sites about 1.      humidity 2.      heat/human discomfort index warnings /day-night temperature forecast3.      lightning /thunderstorm4.      rain, water loggingWarnings for event rescheduling for the organizers or even cancellations 1.      Winds must be < 20 mph winds for high platform diving 2.      Humidity and dew formation at velodrome cancels cycling 3.      Strong wind changes, unfair advantage to some athletes 4.      Rainout of events Use of weather conditions by athletes to their advantage 1.      Marathon (conserving energy) -- consider heat index 2.      Sailing, Archery, Shooting, etc (using information about winds) Improved security: Routing and evacuation planning.

3-14 October, 2010, New Delhi, India

Weather forecast for Weather forecast for Major Sport events in the Major Sport events in the pastpast

a. NWS Forecast for Atlanta Olympics a. NWS Forecast for Atlanta Olympics 19961996b. UKMO forecast for Manchester b. UKMO forecast for Manchester Commonwealth Games-2002 Commonwealth Games-2002

Setting up of Venue Specific Weather Forecast and Information System for

COMMONWEALTH GAMES-2010October 3-14, 2010, New Delhi, India Outline of the ProposalOutline of the Proposal

NCMRWF in collaboration with IMD for real time operational weather forecasting.

NCMRWF and IMD to work closely with Research Organizations / Institutions in India and abroad for development and implementation of the system

The speedy and efficient implementation of the project requires a close Public-Private partnership (Similar to IBM-NWS partnership for Atlanta Olympics)

Implementing and Implementing and Coordinating Coordinating AgenciesAgencies

Real time implementation of an ensemble of high resolution (10-20 km) global models

Operational running of a set of Non-hydrostatic 1 km weather models for NCR region

Statistical and dynamical downscaling of model products

Software for visualization and product display

Science PlanScience PlanModels & Other SoftwaresModels & Other Softwares

A dense network of Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) in an area of 100 km in and around Delhi. Each AWS should have capability of online observation and data transmission through satellite based communication system.

C/S band Doppler Radars within an area of 500 km for observations of cloud echoes/winds and for tracking of weather systems. The Doppler radars are required to be integrated with data assimilation system for forecast models and with Visualization system for online display.

Mobile Wind Profilers / Doppler radars for upper air wind observations. The data from these, will be utilized for meso-scale data assimilation for generating model analysis.

INSAT observations on upper air winds, cloud imageries, etc.

Science PlanScience PlanObservational NetworkObservational Network

High-end computing systems capable of handing real time operations of data assimilation, forecast generations by models and running other softwares.

Visualization and product display systems A weather proof Network and communication

system, preferably satellite based for real time data transfer. A large bandwidth will be required for near real time transmission of high density data

Science PlanScience Plan Other HardwaresOther Hardwares

Each venue will have an exclusive WEATHER INFORMATION BOOTH where athletes, authorities or spectators can visit to get weather forecast of their requirement.

Official TV channel of Commonwealth Games will continuously display the weather information on TV screen throughout the period.

Science PlanScience PlanProduct Generation and Product Generation and Dissemination Dissemination

An exclusive Web Site will be set up about an year in advance for providing free weather forecast and information. The web site will be linked to official web site of Commonwealth Games-2010.

Weather information will be provided to users through mobile service providers.

Science PlanScience PlanWeather InformationWeather Informationthrough Mobile and Internetthrough Mobile and Internet

Such a system is being first time attempted for a tropical location like Delhi at very high resolution.

Effort requires quantum leap in resources.

October being a transition month, forecast accuracy may be severely affected.

Present network of observations not adequate.• Shortage of skilled manpower in Operational agencies (NCMRWF/IMD) to handle advanced technology.

Major Major Challenges and Challenges and Constraints Constraints

Upcoming Models- OMEGA Model (upto 1 km resolution)*, WRF/ HWRF models (upto 2 km resolution)

Visualization and Dissemination Technology -ARCGIS 9#

IMD’s Modernization Plan- Advanced High density observational network (surface, upper air, Doppler radars, wind profilers, etc)

High end computing systems in NCMRWF [CRAY X1E, IBM systems] (to meet near future computing requirement of NCMRWF for running global/ meso-scale models in real time)

Launch of New Satellites: INSAT-3D/ Megha Tropiques* Recent discussion with Prof David Bacon GMU, USA# Being implemented in Andhra Pradesh for Cyclone Hazard Mapping Project

Implementation Implementation StrategyStrategyNew Opportunities in near New Opportunities in near futurefuture

OMEGA Accesses High Resolution Databases

and AutomaticallyGenerates the

Grid

Implementation Implementation StrategyStrategyOMEGA ModelOMEGA Model

T0-T24 Months: a. Model and other Software Developmentb. Deployment of Observational Network, visualization and communication systems c. Training of PersonnelT24-T36 Monthsa. Testing and Implementation of entire systemb. Real Time DemonstrationC. Validation of ForecastT36-T48 MonthsAn Integrated Weather Forecast Information System is ready for real time use for CWG-2010.

Proposed Time ScheduleProposed Time Schedule(55 months to go from now)

Implementation Implementation StrategyStrategy

The project can be a great showcasing of strength of India’s weather service agencies

This will eventually help the country establishing a high resolution location specific weather forecast system which can be used for predicting high impact weather events at any location in the country- Forecast system for Mega Cities.

The forecast effort for CWG-2010 may be a turning point for the weather forecasting service in the Country ... there had been tremendous advancement of weather forecasting in US since Atlanta Olympics 1996.

Benefits to the Benefits to the NationNation