verification of lm @ dwd ulrich damrath & ulrich pflüger

Verification of LM @ DWD

Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

Verification activities

• Operational verification– surface weather elements (SYNOP)– precipitation (high density network)– verification of vertical profiles using TEMPs

and AMDARs


Verification activities

• Preoperational verification & research– verification of LME– verification of precipitation forecasts using the

pattern recognition method by Ebert– suggestion about common verification

procedures in the future


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC


Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of scores for QPF over Germany


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H > 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts MAM 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJ 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m


Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of GME


Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2002


Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005


Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 1


Geopotential17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME


Wind Velocity17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME


Temperature17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

17.12.2003

GME PseudoTemps

27.09.2003

New GME

27.09.2003

New GME


Relative Humidity16.09.2003

Prognostic Cloud Ice

16.09.2003

Prognostic Cloud Ice


Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, RMSE, ...


Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, BIAS, ...


Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...


Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...

2.39

2.56

2.34

2.53


Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME experiment, BIAS, ...


Using ODB as a tool within verification

• Observational Data Base: data base filled with observations (used during assimilation cycle) and differences between observations and forecasts

• requires special software to install and to run• enables introduction of sql-statements to extract

observations and differences FC-OBS under any conditions (i.e. get surface temperature values [or errors] over the Alps in cases if inversion occures in Payerne between 1000 and 850 hPa)


That‘s all,thank you for

your attention!

verification of lm @ dwd ulrich damrath & ulrich pflüger

Documents

verification of qpf

common verification

mean observations

comparison of lme

lme experiment

cra method

time series of scores

grid of lm