vertical profiling of atmospheric particles. what are the ... · unforgetable memories ... multi...
TRANSCRIPT
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AeroCom review
Stefan Kinne, Hamburg
Micheal Schulz and Gunnar Myhre, Oslo
http://aerocom.met.no/Welcome.html
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What is AeroCom • an (basically) unfunded initiative
– collaborative spirit – no competition
• founded by common interests to advance understanding of model complexity – common experiments / (input) emission data
• linking data and simulation groups – annual meetings … now with AeroSAT branch
• open access data archive visualization – http://aerocom.met.no/Welcome.html (talk to Jan)
• advance (climate) science understanding – contributing to IPCC
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community spirit
• data and modeling exchange (annual reunions) • understanding of needs and limitations • developing relationships / friendships • sharing and helping (rather than competing)
• PARIS 2003
where it started
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unforgetable memories
• ff
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and sad news
Jon Egill Kristiansen
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… over the years the participation kept growing
2015
2004
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a
… and there always was something to remember
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the data base
• 15 years of model simulation collection • for data access … e-mail to Jan G.
• visual interface for (quick) comparisons • to other models / simulations / assimilations • to observational data (incl. satellite data) • http://aerocom.met.no/cgi-bin/aerocom/surfobs_annualrs.pl
• do not forget to upload your data regularly • netcdf CF … (when in doubt talk to Jan G.) • data-submission http://aerocom-test.met.no/upload
• you are encouraged to work with the data ! • data are waiting to be analyzed !!! • If not there … propose your own experiment
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the web-page
• new features of AEROCOM web interface http://aerocom.met.no/cgi-bin/aerocom/surfobs_annualrs.pl
– try it out ! (ask Jan G. for instructions • make selections on the screen • compare side by side
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experiments
• the ‘important’ reference control experiment • how does your model change over time • regular checking will quickly identify issues
• control 2015 comparison results (M. Schulz)
• Inter-model variability has NOT decreased • models did not change in the same direction • usually model typically biases remain • surface conc. are not constrained by loads
• https://wiki.met.no/aerocom/phase3-experiments
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(other) ongoing experiments
• AeroCom phase III experiments • Betsy Andrews vs in-situ ground concentr. • Nick Schutgens vs remote sensing data • Paul Ginoux dust experiment • Bjorn Samset precipitation / at poles • Mariya Petrenko biomass burning • Huisheng Bian nitrates • Gunnar Myhre (direct) radiative forcing
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climate understanding
• impacts on TOA radiation – aerosol impacts are small compared to clouds ... but aerosol is partially anthropogenic !
• anthropogenic added aerosol cools – direct effect (by aerosol presence) ca - 0.3 W/m2 – indirect effect (via changed clouds) ca - 1.0 W/m2 compare to anthropogenic GH impact + 2.8 W/m2
• aerosol impact regional distribution ? • changes over the last decade ?
global ann averages
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spatially uneven impacts
• direct indirect both
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(direct) trends ?
• aerosol has many flavors • natural…
– (most) dust, sea-salt • anthropogenic
– BC (over clouds) warming – SO4, NO2, OM cooling – regional pollution shifts
• less over EU /USA • more SE Asia
– direct impact changed ?
multi (6)-model 1990-2015 aerosol hindcast simulations G.Myhre et al, ACP
(fine-mode) AOD changes (~ ‘pollution’)
Part Mass 2.5 concentration at surface changes
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sulfate forcing trends -
• US/EU sulfate reductions: warming trend • SE ASIA sulfate increases: cooling trends
1990-2015 direct SU forcing changes (6 AeroCom models) G.Myhre et al, ACP
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BC forcing trends +
• US/EU weak reductions: cooling trends • SE ASIA strong increases: warming trend
1990-2015 direct SU forcing changes (6 AeroCom models) G.Myhre et al, ACP
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direct forcing trends +
• aerosol direct climate cooling has decreased over the last 15 year … still a weak cooling
overall ‘simulated’ aerosol direct radiative forcing change
1990-2015 direct forcing changes (6 AeroCom models) G.Myhre et al, ACP
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summary on trends / next for global annual averages …
• even though aerosol AOD has not changed significantly over the last 15 years, aerosol direct forcing decreased (ca -0.5 to -0.3 W/m2) – main reason: less SU, more BC
• but: – indirect impacts are potentially much larger
and uncertain Minghuai Wang – are these simulations based results consistent
with observations Mian Chin
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extras
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new current research branches
• aerosol and environmental properties – aerosol and the hydrological cycle
• indirect effects (clouds and precipitation) • volcanic CCN testbeds
• aerosol temporal change
– more than 15 years of advanced satellite data • MODIS (VIIRS) , MISR, ATSR (SLSTR) , CALIPSO,
– more than 20 years of ground remote sensing • AERONET, BSRN clear-sky solar radiation