Viability of Moroccan agriculture in the context of climate change and the challenge of food security

Abdellatif KHATTABI Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieurs,

Salé, Morocco

Email: ab_khattabi@yahoo.com

Top 10 risks in terms of Likelihood

Top 10 risks in terms of Impact

1. Interstate conflict 2. Extreme weather events 3. Failure of national governance 4. State collapse or crisis 5. Unemployment or underemployment 6. Natural catastrophes 7. Failure of climate-change adaptation 8. Water crises 9. Data fraud or theft 10. Cyber attacks

1. Water crises 2. Spread of infectious diseases 3. Weapons of mass destruction 4. Interstate conflict 5. Failure of climate-change adaptation 6. Energy price shock 7. Critical information infrastructure breakdown 8. Fiscal crises 9. Unemployment or underemployment 10. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse

Global Risks

(WEF, 2015) Ample scientific evidence that extreme events are becoming more frequent and severe, worldwide (IPCC, 2015)

Global Water scarcity

Source: Mekonnen & Hoekstra, Univ. Twente, Feb 2016

2/3 of the global population live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least 1 month of the year ½ billion people in the world face severe water scarcity all year round.

Changes in precipitation

“Water is a precious resource, crucial to realizing the SDGs, which at their heart aim to eradicate poverty”

Ban Ki-moon,

UN Secretary General

Economic Importance of agriculture in Africa

Agriculture in Africa:

Employs 65 percent of the labor force

Accounts for 32 percent of gross domestic product

Agriculture Value Added as a Percentage of GDP in 2014

Nutrient and soil organic matter depletion and

soil erosion worsen the effects of climate

change and decrease farmer resilience.

(World Bank Data Portal)

Climate challenges faced by African Agriculture

IPCC, 2014

Africa has experienced during the last century an unprecedented deficit of rainfall particularly in the Sahel region; increases in temperature and changes in rainfall pattern & extremes. These changes in temperature and rainfall have affected negatively crop yields,

exacerbating food insecurity.

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in Africa

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, Wheeler 2011

Agricultural productivity will come under pressure from Climate Change, with large parts of Africa expected to experience downward yield pressure of above 15%

Hunger declining –but Africa lags

0 10 20 30 40

World

Africa

AsiaPacific

LAC

2012-14 1990-92

Prevalence of undernourishment (%)

Source: FAO 2015

1,5 million farms, of which 70% are of small size (less than 2.1ha), and 81% non irrigated 77% of micro / small farms are located in areas with limited potential

Context of agriculture in Morocco

748

582

449

360

306 273

246 228 217 210

142 110

85 68 58 52 47 43 41 40

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Irrigated agricultural land

Hecta

res o

f la

nd p

er

1000 p

ers

ons

Total agricultural land

Agricultural area: 8,7 Mha

Roles of agricultural sector in Morocco

Economic

Environment

AGRICULTURE

Social

Production lines of Moroccan agriculture

20-35%

5-10%

70-80 Md DH

45-50%

60-70%

3-4 Mio jobs

35-40%

10-15%

Employment Turnover

Fresh 50-55%

13 Md DH

Processed 45-50%

Export

Vegetal production with high value

Cereals and fodder

25%

7,4 Mio Ha

75%

SAU

Livestock

Dominance of:

• Cereals by area covered;

• high value crops production for exports; and

• livestock for employment

10

Food security and agriculture

The requested contribution of agriculture has shifted from the concept of self-sufficiency to the concept of food security. Food security in Morocco is mainly based on rainfed agriculture, which dominates (83%) the cultivated area. Agriculture is increasingly facing new demands on health safety. This agriculture is sensitive to the vagaries of climate variability and change.

Challenges: • Climate change • Water scarcity • Population growth • Land and biodiversity degradation

Source: DRPE

Projected changes of temperature (oC) and of rainfall (%) with respect to the reference period (1961-1990), for the present period (1990-2020), middle of

century (2040 – 2069) and end of century (2070 – 2099).

Climate in Morocco

A: Corn and vegetables in irrigated lands

B: Vegetables and fruit trees in irrigated lands

C: Fodder

D: rain fed Cereals and legume crops

E: Rain fed wheat and barley

F: Other non irrigated crops

Impacts of climate change on the productivity of agriculture

Irrigated

Rainfed

Irrigated Agricultural GDP: highly dependent on climate. Irrigated agriculture: sensitive through its dependence on water resources. Animal production: linked to crop production in pasture land, which is highly dependent on climate; The sensitivity of the yield of certain crops, such as arboriculture, to temperature and more precisely to the availability of cold hours. The sensitivity of the cycles of some crop pests, common in Morocco, to climatic variations.

a. Comprehensive climate risk management

b. Sustainable land and soil management

c. Improving sustainably agriculture productivity and production

d. Improving irrigation systems and efficiency

e. Improving water governance and integrated management (supply/demand)

f. Decreasing food losses and waste

g. Identification of financial mechanisms and means

h. Building Capacity building, and better communicating/coordinating

i. Enhancing investment in agricultural research + technological change

j. Supporting the nexus approach on food, water and energy

Possible ways for sustainability

Opportunities

2030 Agenda Integrated approaches (Nexus) Paris Agreement on Climate change Financial resources Innovation Plan Maroc Vert Triple A initiative for Africa

Tools National and local capacity building Transformational projects Joint action and collaborative efforts South – South cooperation (Africa)

Opportunities and tools

‘PLAN MAROC VERT’ AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la pêche maritimes

Measures of adaptation

Reinforce farmers own adaptation strategies (ADAPTATION is vital to manage risk and will bring Immediate benefits in the face of climate change)

Technology of water saving

Genetic technology Parallel measures

Modification of agricultural

practices Measures of

adaptation

Initiative for the

Adaptation of the African Agriculture

to Climate Change

("AAA")

INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY + REDUCE

VULNERABILITIES + IMPROVE RESILIENCE +

MANAGE NATURAL RESOURCES MORE

SUSTAINABLY

"AAA” Initiative is the drive to enhance the Adaptation of African Agriculture

I

A stronger collective voice for the adaptation of African

agriculture to climate change

Increased funding

I.1

Simplified access to climate funds

I.3

Climate funds monitoring

I.2

Advocacy Solutions Contribute to the Global

Climate Action Agenda and support "AAA" projects

II

Agricultural Water management

II.2

Climate risk management

II.3

Financing solutions

II.4

Soils management

II.1

Leverage the Instruments recommended by the UNFCCC

Technology transfers Capacity building South-South cooperation

"AAA"

Thank you for your attention