“Money itself isn’t lost or made, its simply transferred from one perception to another.”

Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987

Victor AdairWhite Bear Capital Corporation

www.VictorAdair.comVancouver Resource Investment Conference

January 23, 2011

Today’s topics

• Way more money has been borrowed than will ever be repaid

Today’s topics

• Way more promises have been made than will ever be kept

Today’s topics

• “Its not a question of enough, Pal. It’s a zero sum game, someone wins, someone loses. Money itself isn’t lost or made, its simply transferred from one perception to another.” Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, 1987

Today’s topics

• Why do you believe what you believe?

Today’s topics

• “You gotta get your mind right.” Cool Hand Luke, 1967

Today’s topics

• What am I going to do today to make some money?

Today’s topics

• What are my market thoughts today?

Way more money has been borrowed…

• The greatest credit bubble in history• Consequences• Private sector de-leveraging• Public sector “to the rescue…”• Austerity / stimulation• Inflation / deflation• Risk on / risk off• Crisis / muddle through

Way more promises have been made…

• Gov’ts: Break promises? Cut services? Raise taxes? Raise tariffs? Default? Blame someone else! Get re-elected!

• Central Banks: Print money? Devalue? Interest rates? Reserve requirements?

• Who suffers? Who pays? Who benefits? Who wins?

“Money is…transferred from one perception to another”

• Psychology is more important than math

• Its easier to swim with the current than against it – identify the prevailing perception…

• While watching for signs that it may be changing!

Why do you believe what you believe?

• You’ve got an opinion? You’ve got a risk.

• Markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

• “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do ,sir?” J.M. Keyes

• Know where to get out before you get in.

You gotta get your mind right

• It is what it is.

• It ain’t fair.

• It ain’t right.

• It can’t continue.

• It is what it is.

What am I going to do today to make some money?

• I’m in.

• I’m open.

• I anticipate, wait for confirmation, and act.

• I know my time frame.

• I know my edge.

• I manage my risk.

• Its only a trade. (No more masterpieces!)

What are my market thoughts today?

• Marco views shape perceptions• China: Bubble? Who’s in charge?• Euro: reports of death exaggerated?• Gold: less urgency?• CAD: everybody loves Canada?• Stocks: it’s a bull mkt! APPL 21% of NAZ• Correction (at least) coming!• www.VictorAdair.com