video challenged the network star -(mobile trends 2011 & beyond)

COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL

Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL


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WIRELESSBASE STATIONS

2007 2010

10 M users

289M users

11B apps downloaded

2007 2010

3.6 M

4.2 M

FIXED BROADBAND CONNECTIONS

2007 2010

340 M

521 M

SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS

ALWAYS ON, ALL THE TIME


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AN HOUR IS A LONG TIME IN TELECOM

~ 590 terabytes of new storage

capacity shipped

53,425 new smartphonesactivated

81 base stations deployed

5400 new fixed broadband connections installed

2,842,466 applications downloaded

27 terabytes of traffic mobile consumed

Globally, IP traffic will increase by

~11 terabyteseach and

every hour


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2011 AND BEYOND - TRENDS

Internet Of Things

Critical National Infrastructure

Cloud

Application And Content Value Chain

Wireless All Around

Customer Experience Transformation

Source: Bell Labs, Juniper Research, Stratecast, Strategy Analytics, ITU, IDC

Everything in the Cloud

World and Internet going mobile

Ever demanding customers

Content is king

Crucial to economic growth and security

Machine-to-machine opportunity

43% of all customer issues: 2 or more support calls

40% of businesses will buy ICT on the cloud in 2-5 yearsCloud will be a $148.8 market in 2014

From 10.9B app downloads in 2009 to 24.9B in 2011

M2M estimated at 62M machines/devices in 2010 grows to 2.1B in 2020

12 broadband expansion projects in Asia, several in Latin America, plus Europe and US

By 2014, 50% of mobile data traffic will be videoBetween 2012 and 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs


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New devices driving exponential increase in consumption

WNG analysis of device usage in operator network

10 BBs = 1 iPhone10 iPhones = 1 Datacard~2-3 iPhones = 1 iPad

• M2M device connections will grow from 62 million in 2010 to 2.1 billion devices (Analysys Mason)

• 30 times as many transactions between machines as humans in 2020 (Forrester Research)

M2M Usage in 2020

DEVICE AND OPPORTUNITY EXPLOSION

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Mbytes

Percenta

ge of Subs

All Devices

IPhone

Blackberry

Data card

Nexus One


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REALITY CHALLENGES THE VIDEO STAR(S)


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CATEGORY SPEED PLAYERS

MP3 1976

Internet search 1998

Storage and Compute 1994

Social media 2004

E-commerce 1998

Billing 1998

Video content 1997

Micro blogging 2007

IP Telephony 2003

Location-based services 2009

Professional social networking 2003

$717 Billion

= 90% of

NL GDP

EST MKT VALUE ($)

306 B

184 B

83 B

50 B

40 B

18 B

12 B

8 B

8 B

1 B

3 B

SPEED IDEAS

Apple


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ACTIVITY AND REVENUE DICHOTOMY

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Trafficsplit

Revenuesplit

The wireless revenue challenge

Voice

Data

Global Traffic (Petabytes)

10,174

20,396

49,919

63,904

Revenue ($B)

1,585 1,677 1,777

’07 ’10 ’12 ’14

287 Megabytesper user/per day

e.g. AT&T mobile data volumes up 8,000% over four years


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THE PROBLEM: REVENUE VERSUS NETWORK COST

The operator business model is increasingly unsustainable

A wireless operator makes 93,750,000 times as

much revenue per bit from SMS, than a wirelineoperator gets from

delivering a Netflix video

Source: Bell Labs Analysis

-- 13% CAGR13% CAGR

+ 52% CAGR

Service provider network model

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$/sub/m

onth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Mb/data plan sub/m

onth


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IS THE ANSWER GREATER BW EFFICIENCY?

2

4

-5 +5 +15

Peak Data Efficiency (bps/Hz)

Signal-to-Noise Ratio (dB)

WAN wireless technologies

Shannon-bound

Infeasible Region

EV-DO

802.16

HSDPA

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

SNR (dB)

Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz)

Distance = 500 km

Optical Transport

Shannon bound

Copper Access

100

180

1000 2000 3000

Downstream Rate (Mbps)

Line Length (meters)

4000

140

60

20

5 Crosstalkers

24 Crosstalkers

Shannon bound

1 Crosstalker

Need more spectrum, more ‘channels’ and more application-intelligence


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WHAT’s NEXT?

Attainable bitrate

(Mb/s)

1 pair 2 pairs PhantomMode

Vectoring 4 pairs 4 pairs + PM + Vectoring

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Phantom-on-Phantom

Phantom Mode 3-4

Line 4

Line 3

Phantom Mode 1-2

Line 2

Line 1

New Generation Wireline910 Mb/s

(4 pairs, 400m)

390 Mb/s (2 pairs, 400m)

Simpler, lighter... enabling cloud-like networks

Bell Labs new radio cube

9x the capacity

¼ cost/bit

50% TCO savings

Up to:

New Generation Wireless


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THE FUTURE: MAKING ANTENNAS INVISIBLE

On a façade On a pole On a lamppost In a bus stop


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Customer satisfaction

Revenue/sub.

Network cost/sub.

ApplicationEnablementbusinessmodels

High-leverage network technologies

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:A WIN-WIN-WIN PROPOSITION


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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

video challenged the network star -(mobile trends 2011 & beyond)

Technology