Name _____________________________________ A.P. Government & PoliticsChapter 9: Campaigns and Voting Behavior

Date______________________ LecturePump PrimerExplain the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974

Objectives:9.1: Evaluate the fairness of our current system of presidential primaries and

caucuses9.2: Explain the key objectives of any political campaign.9.3: Outline how fund-raising for federal offices is regulated by campaign finance

laws. 9.4: Determine why campaigns have an important yet limited impact on election

outcomes.9.5: Identify the factors that influence whether people vote9.6: Assess the impact of party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy

opinions on voting behavior9.7: Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral College system for choosing the

president9.8: Assess the advantages and disadvantages of the U.S. system of campaigns and

elections

Biblical Integration:Candidates face a great deal of difficulties and it is vital that they seek good counsel which brings wisdom (Prov. 13:10)

Christian responsibilities and 1 Timothy 2:1-2

Introduction:Supporters reach out to shake hands with Barack Obama following his speech at the Portland Memorial Coliseum on March 21, 2008, one of a number of events in a long typical day on the campaign trail.

The long and arduous campaign required of presidential hopefuls is unique to the United States. While some argue that this extended period is a useful testing ground, others question its effectiveness in helping citizens choose the best candidate. This chapter discusses the structure and dynamics of presidential election campaigns, with special attention given to the role of money in campaigns.

Lecture Outline

Video: The Big PictureAmericans are generally very involved in the political process—from signing petitions to writing to congressmen—so why is voter turnout so low? Author Martin P. Wattenberg argues that the sheer number of elections that occur in the United States every year discourages citizens from voting.

Video: The BasicsDo you have trouble figuring out when all the elections are and who you should vote for? If you do, you’re not alone. This video will help you understand why the United States has so many types of elections, what purposes they serve, and whether money and campaign staff is vital to campaign victories.

Nomination Game (LO 9.1) Competing for Delegates Convention Send-Off

Earning a party’s nomination for office requires money, media attention, and momentum. Candidates must develop a smart campaign strategy to have a hope of winning their party’s nomination.

A campaign is a test of endurance and energy, of living with sleep deprivation, junk food, lack of exercise, and no life outside the campaign for year after year. In contrast, campaigns in other wealthy democracies usually last no more than two months.

Competing for Delegates National party _______________________

State delegates meet and vote on _______________________ Nomination process more democratic today

Riots at the Democratic national convention 1968

_____________- ___________________Commission Implemented reforms in delegate selection Caused states to move to primary elections

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Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention led to the establishment of more open procedures for delegate selection. These reforms have made recent party conventions more representative of party membership diversity

Video: “Superdelegates 101”

Both Republican and Democratic parties use caucuses and primaries to select the eventual nominees to represent them in general elections. However, there are a number of differences between party’s primaries.

The Democratic Party created the role of “superdelegates,” or automatic delegates, whose vote to the national party convention is not based on a primary election result. Who are these superdelegates? How do these super delegates impact the election outcome? Do they provide for a more or less democratic process? In this video, it examines these and other questions as it explores the role of superdelegates in the 2008 close democratic primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/2011_mpsl_video/abc_superdel/player.html

Competing for Delegates National party convention

_______________________ Awarded automatic slots as delegates

Member of _____________________ (or) Member of party’s national committee

___________ Balance the tendencies of the more partisan party

electorate Ensure that an electable candidate is given the

nomination

_______________________ primary

Woo support from ___________________ officials

Craft positive personal __________________

Distinguish themselves from other candidates

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Seek _________________ attention but avoid blunders

2012 Republican primary debate Televised debates are a regular feature of the presidential nomination process. The Republican candidates for the 2012 nomination participated in 27 debates. Here, Texas Governor Rick Perry is shown making a point while Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum look on.

Clip: How Does A Caucus Work Anyway (CBS News)

_________________ Meetings where citizens discuss and vote on a nominee

_________________caucus

Organized like a _________________ from local precincts to the state’s convention

_________________ Serve as elimination contests

_________________ is the tendency of states to hold primaries early to capitalize on media attention

________ _________________primary Proportional versus winner-take-all primaries

Competing for Delegates Evaluating the primary and caucus system

Disproportionate attention goes to _____________ caucuses and primaries - many states are ignored

Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run

_________________ plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries

Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative

System gives too much power to the ______________

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FIGURE 9.1: A count of Clinton and Obama events during the 2008 nomination campaign The attention that candidates pay to early primary and caucus states is far more than the number of delegates at stake would otherwise warrant.

Convention Send-Off Winner foregone conclusion

Reduced TV coverage

Party _________________ Carefully scripted to get delegates and viewers energized to help the

campaign

Party _________________ Policy goals for next four years agreed on behind the scenes

Party _________________ Announcement and acceptance speeches from both nominees

Review QuestionWhy were party primaries introduced?

a. Previous nominating process was undemocraticb. Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedurec. Party leadership demanded itd. All of the above

Clip: The Money Trail . ABC

Campaign Game (LO 9.2) High-Tech Media Campaign Organizing the Campaign

The word campaign originated as a military term: generals mounted campaigns, using their limited resources to achieve strategic objectives. Political campaigns are conducted using similar strategies to deploy time, money, and energy in the most effective manner.

Campaigns deal almost exclusively in images, with the goal of presenting the candidate as a model of desirable leadership qualities. Technology is crucial to the modern political campaign.

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High-Tech Media Campaign Main means of reaching voters = _______

_________________ increasingly important

Direct mail now digital Digital campaigning via _________________, Facebook

Obligatory for the modern campaign

Two ways to get attention

_________________ advertising News coverage

Organizing the Campaign Get a campaign _________________ Get a fund-raiser Get a campaign _________________ Hire media and campaign consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics

Get a _________________ staff and policy advisers

Hire a _________________ Hire a good press secretary

Establish a ________ site

Stossel in the Classroom - Campaign Finance Reform

Review QuestionWhich staff members does a modern candidate need to hire?

a. Press secretaryb. Pollstersc. Campaign managerd. All of the above

Money and Campaigning (LO 9.3) Regulations on Campaign Contributions Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Are Campaigns Too Expensive? Does Money Buy Victory?

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Many people of moderate means make small donations to political candidates, but the cost of campaigns is so high that wealthy contributors can buy special influence over elected officials, to the detriment of middle class and poorer Americans.

There are two basic ways of contributing money to campaigns. Donors can make a direct contribution to the campaign or they can spend money independently to support a candidate, without coordinating this expenditure with the campaign.

Regulations on Campaign Contributions

_________________ _________________ _________________Act (1974)

Who contributed How money spent

_________________ on individual and interest group contributions

Federal Election Commission (________)

Public financing (tax return form donation of $3)

__________________________ No limits on spending own money

__________ money Money raised by political parties for party building expenses

at the grass roots level

Banned - _______________ _________________Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002

Figure 9.2: How Obama raised more campaign money by declining federal funds

Accepting federal funds would mean agreeing to a spending cap. By declining federal funds, Barack Obama was able to raise much more money for his campaign for the presidency.

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Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures ________groups

New route for _________ money Independent expenditures

Endorsements _________________ Disclose the names of donors or amount of donations.

_________________ _________________v. FEC (2010) Prior to case corporations and unions could not electioneer in the final

60 days before the election Court ruled 5 to 4 that money equals speech and corporations are

people, so restrictions on electioneering were a violation of speech rights

Citizens United Let’s look at the reason behind the Citizens United lawsuit. David Bossie, shown here, is president of Citizens United, a conservative nonprofit organization, which in 2008 produced Hillary: The Movie. When the Federal Election Commission ruled that this movie was unlawful electioneering, Citizens United successfully sued, establishing the right of any group to engage in independent political expenditures.

_________________groups No disclose the names of donors or amount of donations

_________________PACs Named because of the immense amounts of _____________ they can

spend provided that it’s in the form of independent expenditures Created after the Citizens United ruling

Video: Colbert and his Colbert Super PAC

TABLE 9.1: Biggest 10 Super PAC donations in 2012

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Are Campaigns Too Expensive?

________ 2008 federal elections cost $___ billion Fundraising distracts from official duties

________ Only .05% of __________ spent on elections About the cost of one DVD per person

How to reform system? Reforms are not easy _____________ __________decision that

equates campaign spending with speech. Makes most restrictions on campaign financing __________________

Video: In the Real WorldIn its controversial Citizen’s United decision, the Supreme Court ruled that money is speech and thus the courts cannot put a limit on the amount of money an individual—or a corporation—spends on an election. Real people decide whether or not they agree with that decision, and they consider some of its long-term implications.

Does Money Buy Victory Is there a link between money and votes?

Some say ______ Spend more only when __________

Doctrine of ____________________ No need to outspend opponent to win Some candidates who outspent their opponents ___ to 1 and yet lost

Review QuestionWhat are independent political expenditures?

a. Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to votersb. Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidatec. Money spent without coordination with a campaignd. Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

Impact of Campaigns (LO 9.4) How important are campaigns?

____________________ - voters’ preferences for candidates

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____________________ - getting them to contribute time or money rather than merely voting

____________________ of voters, or changing their minds Campaigns mainly reinforce and activate, rarely do they convert

Why are conversions rare?

_________________ perception Paying more attention to things they already agree with and

interpret events according to their own predispositions

People vote according to __________ identification

____________________ advantage

Name recognition and record also tends to outweigh the influence of political campaigns

______________ issues Splits members of the other party and tries to lure voters who feel

strongly about that one issue

Republicans – pro-life ____________________

Democrats – pro-choice ____________________

Video: New Media: Campaign Money Political Candidates and campaign activists raise money through Facebook and other internet Web sites and seek to turn online enthusiasm into offline action.

Review QuestionIn what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters?

a. Activating voters to participate or contribute moneyb. Converting voters to switch sidesc. Reinforcing voters’ preference for candidatesd. None of the above

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice (LO 9.5) Deciding Whether to Vote Registering to Vote

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Who Votes?

Oprah Fires Up Obama Campaign

Oprah says she can't take time off to help campaign for the president this election. "I actually love our president and have the utmost respect for him and that office and what it takes to be there," Winfrey said on CBS's Early Show, adding that she still backs him "100 percent.“"I will not be out because I'm trying to fix a network." In 2009, she left her award winning daytime show to start a cable network , Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN).

2008 Minnesota Senate race Occasionally election outcomes are so close that all the individual ballots have to be carefully recounted. Here, an election official examines a ballot in the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, with representatives from the opposing candidates observing on either side. In the original count, Norm Coleman finished 215 votes ahead, but after the recount Al Franken won the election by 225 votes.

Deciding Whether to Vote

Does __________ vote matter?

Voting is __________ Tuesday is a workday

Is it rational to vote? Policy ____________________

If you see genuine policy differences between candidates Political efficacy

Believes that ordinary people can ____________________ government

Civic duty?

Video: In ContextThere are many reasons why people choose not to vote.

Discover how voter turnout has changed over the course of American history. Has enfranchising women, African Americans, or young people increased turnout? Columbia University political scientist Donald P. Green addresses these and other questions in this video.

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Registering to Vote Voter registration laws __________ by state

Some states allow registration on the __________ of election Others require registration well beforehand

States with __________ requirements have higher turnouts

__________ ________________Act (1993) allowed voters to register by ticking a box on their driver’s

license application or renewal forms . Voter ID laws

Show government-issued _____________ ____to vote

Some believe this ____________________ against some groups

Who Votes? Education

__________ factor Increased sense of political efficacy

Ease of clearing ____________________ hurdles

Age – _________________ greatest predictor

__________ = more likely to vote

Younger (under 25) citizens __________ settled Race and ethnicity

Black and Hispanic turnout lower

Gender, marital status, govt. employment

TABLE 9.2: Reported turnout rates for groups of U.S. citizens in 2008 and 2010

In which election was turnout higher?

Who’s most and least likely to vote?

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Video: Rock the VoteRock the Vote tries to persuade young people to vote by using pop stars to engage their attention.

Review Question

Which demographic group is most likely to vote?a. Young Hispanics with high school diplomasb. Young single whites with college degreesc. Older married people with college degreesd. Older single people without high school diplomas

Video: Thinking Like a Political ScientistThough some groups are more likely than others to vote, sometimes voter turnout declines overall.

Discover how scholars respond when voter turnout—even in presidential elections—declines, as it did during the last half of the twentieth century. Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopolos explorers the research behind this issue, recent trends, and factors that may explain these outcomes.

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions (LO 9.6) Party Identification Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates Policy Voting 2012

Party Identification Provide a __________ perspective

Voters __________ change their party identification Similar to sports teams loyalty and religion

Cue to who is on one’s side

____________________ candidate selection

“My party—right or wrong” - no more

Party loyalty has ______________ since the 1960s Campaigns are more about individuals now instead of parties

____________________ voters –depends on candidate not party

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Likely to be ____________________

Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates

____________________ is key to getting votes

____________________ Reliability Competence

Is it superficial and irrational for voters to pick candidates based on perceived personal qualities rather than policy positions?

________________ are crafted by consultants You can’t know or agree with the candidate on every policy issue

Policy Voting Voting based on issue preferences

Clear __________of policy preferences

__________ where candidates stand on issues Differences between candidates on issues

Vote for candidate closest to own preferences

Preferences may not __________-_____with one candidate Better of two evils

Candidates deliberately __________

2012: A Battle for the Middle-Class Vote Obama’s “titanic struggle” for reelection

Economy and voting behavior

____________________ the party in power in good economic

times and ____________________ in bad times

Change versus experience McCain linked with ____________________ Bush in 2008

Obama linked with ____________________ woes in 2012

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Review QuestionWhy is it difficult for voters to choose candidates based on issue preferences?

a. Candidates are deliberately ambiguous on policyb. Voters change preferences oftenc. Party platforms are not released publiclyd. Issues change from election to election

FIGURE 9.3: Electoral College and exit poll results for 2012

This map shows the number of votes each state had in the Electoral College in 2012, and which states were carried by each party.

School House Rock – Electoral College

Last Battle: The Electoral College (LO 9.7) Unique American institution

Most people want it abolished Archaic and undemocratic

Founders’ plan and revisions President elected by elites Electors = number of ______________________________

48 states are _________________-__________-________

Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes

______________________________

Needs __________ votes to win Battleground states

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Review QuestionHow many electors does each state have?

a. Same as number of senatorsb. Same as number of representatives in the Housec. Same as number of senators plus number of representatives in the House d. Same number for each state, regardless of size

Explore the Electoral College: Is the Electoral College Democratic?What is the difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote?

How do electoral votes lead to controversy?

Let’s explore these questions in more depth by completing this activity.

Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior (LO 9.8) Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? Do Elections Affect Public Policy? Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government?

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? Outsiders have a way in

Candidates chosen by __________, not party __________ The permanent campaign

_______________ overwhelmed

____________________ process discourages candidates

___________________________ is worrisome burden

Barack Obama takes the oath of office on January 20, 2009

Two-way street Elections_____________ public policy to some degree

Public policy decisions affect ____________________ outcomes to some degree

Depends on policy ____________________ between candidates

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Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? Local promises add up

To appeal to local voters, candidates promise new government programs, ____________________, and __________ breaks that are tailored to local interests.

Government is the ____________________ not its master

Review QuestionHow does democracy increase the scope of government?

a. Voters have less fear of power in a government they can changeb. Candidates promise to bring tax money home in the form of programs and

subsidiesc. Both of the aboved. Neither of the above

Explore the Simulation: You Are a Voter Registration VolunteerSome groups in the United States participate in elections at a higher rate than others.

In this simulation, you will learn more about how demographics impact turnout while working as a voter registration volunteer.

Discussion QuestionWho votes and who doesn’t in America?

What factors influence whether or not someone is likely to vote?

Why is voter participation lower in the United States than in most other democracies?

Video: So What?Evaluate the fairness of the electoral system in the United States.

Author Martin P. Wattenberg discusses how factors like campaign financing and voter turnout can influence elections, and he considers possibilities for how elections could be reformed in the future.

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Summary ReviewLO 9.1

• The Nomination Game • Presidential primaries and caucuses lead to nomination at national

party conventions and allow people to participate in the selection of the Democratic and Republican parties’ nominees for president.

• The system gives some states much greater influence than others.• Iowa (1st caucus) and New Hampshire (1st primary) have

disproportionate power stemming from the massive media attention devoted to these early contests and the momentum generated by winning them.

• Money plays too big a role; turnout rates are too low; and mass media has too much power deciding which candidates are serious contenders.

LO 9.2• The Campaign Game

• Political campaigns are carried out to win election for political office and require organization and effective use of high-tech media.

• One important goals of any campaign is simply to get attention.• Campaigns seek to control political agenda by getting the media and

the public to focus on the issues that they wish to emphasize.

LO 9.3• Money and Campaigning

• Federal election law restricts direct contributions to federal campaigns to $2,400 for individuals and $5,000 for political action committees (PACs).

• In the presidential nomination process, federal matching funds are available to candidates who agree to limit their overall spending.

• General presidential election – $85 million grant is available to each party nominee to finance their entire campaign, and candidates who turn down the grant are free to raise an unlimited total in increments equal or less than the maximum contribution limit.

• McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned unlimited soft money contributions.

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LO 9.4• The Impact of Campaigns

• Campaigning serves primarily to reinforce citizens’ views and to activate voters rather than to change views.

• Factors such as selective perception, party identification, and the incumbency advantage tend to weaken the ability of campaigns to influence voters’ decisions.

LO 9.5• Understanding Nominations and Campaigns

• American election campaigns are open, democratic, and long.• Long campaigns provide a strenuous test for all candidates.• Campaigns lead politicians to make many promises that increase the

scope of government.

LO 9.6• How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions

• Party affiliation is the best predictor of voting behavior as it represents a standing decision to vote with one’s party all else being equal.

• Candidate evaluations and policy opinions are two factors that can sometimes away people to detect from their preferred party, and play an especially important role in decision making among independents (voters do not identify with a party).

• Candidate evaluations usually involve integrity, and reliability.• Policy voting often becomes important when voters see clear

differences between the candidates and can determine whose stands on the issues represents their own opinions.

LO 9.7• The Last Battle: Electoral College

• The Electoral College gives voters in the less populated states somewhat greater weight in choosing the president.

• As a result, the winner of the national popular vote does not always prevail in the Electoral College, as happened most recently in the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore.

• Because all but two states allocate all their electors in winner-take-all fashion and because many states lean solidly toward one party or the other, the candidates focus much of their energies on winning about 15 so-called battleground states. These states, such as Florida and Ohio, receive a lot of attention in the general election campaign,

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whereas others, such as California and New York, are largely taken for granted by the candidates.

LO 9.8• Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior

• American election campaigns are easily the most open and democratic in the world—some say too open.

• They are also extraordinarily long, perhaps excessively burdening politicians and leading politicians to make many promises that increase the scope of government.

• On the other hand, long campaigns give little-known candidates a chance to emerge and provide a strenuous test for all the candidates.

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Elections Unit

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Intermediate Knowledge

Advanced Level

B

B

U

K

C

Basic

Knowledge

Understands 3 main reasons why elections are important in a democratic system

Comprehends the difference between primaries and caucuses and can give examples of each

Understands 3 reasons why voter turnout in America is low compared to Europe

Superior knowledge of primaries, caucuses and general elections

Understands the Political Consequences of Turnout Bias

Understands nomination process and electoral college

Knowledge of how elections serve to legitimize government rule

Explain how and why suffrage has expanded while turnout has declined

Analyze the nomination process for president