vietnam presentation uo c gsb
DESCRIPTION
This presentation made at an international business roundtable at the Chicago Booth provides insights into investing in Vietnam from the author who lived and worked in that country for 7 years.TRANSCRIPT
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
THE VIETNAM WAR
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Village Children:
Nowhere to run
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Then and Now
Same village, new faces
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Saigon Street Scene:
Execution of a VC suspect
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Then and Now
Same street today
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
30 April 1975: The Fall of Saigon
Entering the Presidential Palace
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Then and Now
Same palace, same tanks,
but now a tourist attraction
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Evacuation of the US Embassy
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Then and Now
US embassy building razed and now a
single storey building behind high
concrete walls. A block away, this ultra-
modern glass tower housing a Korean
department store.
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
T-shirt for sale, Long Hai beachfront
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
The Big Picture
• Vietnam vis-à-vis ASEAN and Other Nations
• Key Vietnam Demographics
• Investment Fundamentals
Where the USA Stands
• Top 20 Investor Nations
• Selected US Companies in Vietnam
• Key Concerns & Issues
General Operating Principles
• Patience & Relationships + Case Studies
• Managing Ambiguity + Case Studies
• Lobby for Change + Case Studies
Plus: Selected Vietnam Consumer Snapshots
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
2006 Population GDP Export
Country Mil %Gr $/Cap %Gr Ex:GDP %Gr
Vietnam 84.2 1.3 723.9 8.2 65.0 38.6
Brunei 0.4 3.5 30928.8 3.8 48.7 23.5
Cambodia 14.0 2.5 436.2 5.0 42.6 12.2
Indonesia 222.0 1.3 1640.4 5.6 28.5 21.4
Lao PDR 6.1 2.5 574.9 7.3 7.2 138.0
Malaysia 26.7 2.1 5880.4 5.9 102.8 14.8
Myanmar 57.3 2.3 208.6 7.0 29.4 12.5
Philippines 86.9 2.0 1351.5 5.3 40.0 14.0
Singapore 4.5 3.3 29499.6 7.9 205.3 18.2
Thailand 65.2 0.7 3167.8 5.0 62.9 18.5
ASEAN 567.4 1.5 1889.3 5.8 71.4 18.6
Source: ASEAN Secretariat
N.B. – 2nd largest rice exporter, 2nd largest coffee , largest peppercorn, + shrimp, rubber, wood products
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
.
Source: ACNielsen quoting an AT Kearney Study
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Age in Yrs 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
% of Pop 21 21 18 15 12 6 7
60% born after the war
% Literacy Male Female Total
15+ Yrs Read & Write 94 87 90
Source: ACNielsen
Literacy slightly skewed towards males
Source: UNESCO
HH Exp F & B Savings Education Trans/Com Utilities Others
% Split 35 32 10 10 7 6
They save as much as they spend on food and beverage
Source: ACNielsen. Data for AB income only. Savings include compulsory social and health insurance (8pp).
High school girls in ao-dai
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS IN PLACE:
1. Fastest growing economy outside of China
2. Stable political environment
3. Large, literate population with high savings rate
4. Hardworking easily trainable labor force
5. Geo-politically important location Street scene, Hanoi
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Rank Nation # of Proj $B Cap* Rank Nation # of Proj $B Cap*
1 Japan 735 4.824 11 USA 306 0.816
2 Singapore 452 3.686 12 UK 79 0.643
3 Taiwan 1550 2.972 13 Russia 47 0.609
4 South Korea 1263 2.606 14 Cayman Is 19 0.570
5 Hong Kong 375 2.132 15 Switzerland 42 0.530
6 Netherlands 74 2.029 16 Australia 124 0.366
7 BVI 275 1.366 17 Bermuda 5 0.193
8 France 178 1.128 18 Germany 80 0.160
9 Malaysia 200 0.995 19 Philippines 27 0.085
10 Thailand 142 0.816 20 Sweden 11 0.014
* Implemented capital in US$ billion. Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning & Investment (2006 Stats)
USA only #11 in terms of implemented capital as of 2006
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Abbot Labs Baxter Dow Chem Halliburton Nike
ACNielsen Bloomberg Effem/ Mars IBM Pepsi
AIG Insurance Bristol Myers Eli Lilly Intel Pfizer
AON Ins Cargill Ernst & Young J & J Philip Moris
AT&T Citibank Exxon JPMorgan P & G
Avon Coca Cola Fedex KimberlyClark SCJohnson
B Mckenzie Colgate GE Energy KPMG Time Warner
Bates DHL Gillette Land’OLakes United Airlines
* Registered AmChamVietnam members
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
1. Lack of familiarity with the market
• Different culture and language
2. Underdeveloped legal system (“lack of transparency”)
• No written historical precedents
• Laws subject to different interpretations by
ministries and agencies
3. Underdeveloped commercial system
• Banking, finance, and accounting
4. Perceived corruption
5. Short-term: High inflation/ overheated economy
Reunification Day, HCMC
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
• Negotiations are the platform for building relationships. • Many long meetings full of polite courtesies and tea.
• Items previously agreed raised and renegotiated. “Nothing is agreed until
everything is agreed.”
• More to build the relationship and test your commitment to it rather than a
negotiating tactic to wear you down
• Case Study 1: Asian vs Western Investments in Vietnam
• Case Study 2: J&J Professional Marketing Program
• Contracts considered to be mere formalities.
• Agreements reached during the meetings are what’s binding,
not the contract.
• Case Study: URC Distributorship Agreement
• Never cause the other to lose “face”. • Case Study 1: Rice Wine + Snake Heart with the My Tho Gen Sec
• Case Study 2: Never Say Never – PS Toothpaste MOU with Peregrine Restored Sword Lake, Hanoi
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
• Learn to manage ambiguity.
• Lean on relationship to resolve issues and not on the contract.
• Be flexible. Bend on certain terms of the contract knowing that when it’s your turn to
ask the other party will also bend.
• Case Study: Minh Phuong Minimum Fee
• Negotiate hard but politely.
• Better to overstretch than ask for what’s “reasonable”. • Know what you can give up or when to walk away.
• Case Study: Bargain Shopping at An Dong Market
• Use the “lack of transparency” in the legal system to advantage.
• Case Study: Kraft’s Oreo vs URC’s Cream-O
• Current inflation worries do not upset the fundamentals.• Case Study: Inflation in the ’80s/ sacks of dongs (“Vietnamese have bigger dongs”), 1996 Crisis
At the fruit market
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
• With Vietnam’s accession to the WTO (2007), umbrella for actively pushing
for laws to reform legal and commercial systems exists. • Government is pragmatic and listens
• Case Study: Personal Anecdotes Then & Now (2-tier Pay, Travel, Cyclo & Car)
• Government committed to anti-corruption campaign.
• Case Study: Dept of Trade PMU-18
• TDA (Trade & Development Agency), OPIC
(Overseas Private Investment Corporation), and
Exim Bank in Vietnam. Insurance against
sovereign risk available. Family of 5 in a cyclo
Cyclo
Ride
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Socio-Eco
Class
% of Pop in
HCMC +
Hanoi
% Product Ownership
Motorbike Car Computer Cellphone Color TV Fridge
AB 31 99 8 82 94 98 99
CD 52 80 3 40 70 98 93
EF 17 55 0 7 36 96 24
Motorbikes are the primary means of
transportation and cell phones have
quickly passed from status symbol to
daily necessity.
Rush hour in downtown HCMC
Source: ACNielsen
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Countries
(In US$)
Total
Food
Spend
Fresh Food
Amount % of Total
Vietnam 133 92 69
Thailand 152 63 41
Malaysia 142 67 47
Indonesia 89 46 51
Philippines 76 38 50
Compared to their neighbors, the Vietnamese spend a larger
proportion of their food money on fresh stuff suggesting more
traditional, even healthier, eating habits.
Asleep in the market Source: ACNielsen
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
Source: ACNielsen
Topics/ % Confide In Family Friends
Personal Health 73 23
Sexual Relations 12 56
Money Issues 66 37
Study/ Career Issues 56 77
Personal/ Physical Development 33 44
Trends and Fashion 16 78
Outside of health and money issues Vietnamese youth seem more
likely to confide in their friends when it comes to other personal and
intimate matters such as sexual relations, and study/ career issues.
Teens in scooter hats
BANYAN WAY. TRANSFORMING SUCCESSFUL EXECUTIVES INTO GREAT LEADERS.
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