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Mobile Messaging

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www.informatm.com/mobmessaging Your global research partner

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media 1

Informa forecasts strong growth in e-mail and instant messaging, but SMSwill continue to deliver the bulk ofrevenues and traffic

Pamela Clark-Dickson

• Global mobile messaging revenues will total US$201.1 billion in 2015, with SMScontributing the bulk of these revenues, at US$136.9 billion. But SMS’ share of revenuesis forecast to fall from 80.8% in 2010 to 68% in 2015.

• Global mobile messaging traffic will total 19.3 trillion events by 2015. SMS is alsoforecast to contribute the majority of this traffic, with 8.1 trillion events, but its sharewill slide from 71% of total messaging traffic in 2010 to 45% in 2015.

Global mobile messaging revenues will total US$201.1 billion by 2015, according to InformaTelecoms & Media, which recently published its five-year messaging forecasts for 2010-2015.The total represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% on predicted total globalmessaging revenues of US$132.5 billion in 2010 (see fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Global, mobile messaging revenues, by type, 2009-2015

Informa forecasts revenues, users and traffic (in terms of events and megabytes) for SMS,MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile instant messaging. The forecasts are further categorized intoperson-to-person messaging, application-to-person messaging, and person-to-applicationmessaging.

The geography covered comprises five regions, with the Middle East and Africa counted as oneregion, and Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe combined as Europe. Within thefive regions, Informa provides forecasts for six subregions: Africa, the Middle East, Asia PacificDeveloped, Asia Pacific Developing, Central and Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. Informaalso provides forecasts for 13 individual countries.

Informa estimates that SMS will continue to generate the bulk of global messaging revenuesthrough 2015, though its low CAGR of 5.4% over the forecast period means that its share ofrevenues would drop from 80.8% in 2010 to 68% by 2015 (see fig. 2).

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media 2

Fig. 2: Global, mobile messaging revenue share by type, 2010 and 2015

Higher CAGR for MMS, mobile e-mail and mobile instant messaging means that the share ofrevenues from these three messaging types will all increase over the forecast period. Mobilee-mail and mobile IM revenue shares are forecast to increase by about five percentage pointseach, on the back of CAGR of 18.5% and 28.4%. respectively. MMS revenues are also expectedto grow, at a CAGR of 14.4%, which means that MMS’ share of global revenues would increaseby about three percentage points.

Global mobile messaging traffic are forecast to total 19.3 trillion events in 2015, representinga CAGR of 22.5% over the forecast period. SMS is expected to continue generating the bulkof global messaging traffic, though its share of total traffic is expected to drop from 71% in2010 to 45% in 2015 (see fig. 3). Higher CAGR in mobile IM and mobile e-mail traffic (46.3%and 32.8% respectively) are expected to eat into SMS’ share of messaging traffic; SMS traffic ispredicted to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% over the forecast period.

Fig. 3: Global, mobile messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015

www.informatm.com © 2010 Informa Telecoms & Media

ContentsMobile Messaging Executive Summary – PowerPoint file (30 slides)............................1

Global Mobile Messaging Forecasts, 2009-2015 – Excel file..........................................2

Global Mobile Messaging Survey 2010 results – Excel file............................................ 3

SMS remains a cash cow for operators, but they must play to its strengths in order tolessen the impact of smartphones and IP messaging.................................................... 4

Fig. 1: Global smartphone sales 2009-2015..................................................................................................................................... 5

Fig. 2: Global, smartphone sales penetration of total sales, by region, 2009-2015........................................................ 6

Fig. 3: Global mobile messaging matrix, 2010................................................................................................................................6

Fig. 4: Global mobile messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015...............................................................................................7

Fig. 5: Global mobile messaging revenue share, by type, 2010 and 2015.......................................................................... 7

Fig. 6: Global, SMS traffic, 2009-2015................................................................................................................................................. 8

Fig. 7: Global, SMS users, 2009-2015................................................................................................................................................... 8

Fig. 8: Selected SMS services and applications provided by mobile operators with partners......................................9

Fig. 9: Selected SMS services and applications exclusively provided by mobile operators............................................9

Fig. 10: Global SMS traffic, 2Q07-2Q09............................................................................................................................................10

Fig. 11: Global, SMS per subscriber per month, 2Q07-2Q10...................................................................................................11

Fig. 12: Spain, SMS revenues, 2005-2009........................................................................................................................................ 11

Fig. 13: Global, selected messaging hubs.........................................................................................................................................12

Fig. 14: Global, SMSC deployments by vendor and mobile subscriptions, Jul-10..........................................................13

Fig. 15: SMSCs, vendor market share by region and mobile subscriptions, Jul-2010.................................................. 14

Fig. 16: Messaging infrastructure suppliers, product portfolio comparison, selected features, Jul-2010........... 14

Fig. 17: Global, vendor market shares of SMSC revenues, 2009............................................................................................14

Fig. 18: T-Mobile Germany, messaging use of iPhone customers on social networks.................................................16

Fig. 19: Global, messaging revenues by sub-service category, 2010-2015....................................................................... 18

Fig. 20: Global, application messaging revenue shares, by category, 2010 and 2015................................................ 19

Fig. 21: Enterprise messaging applications and services, by industry................................................................................19

Fig. 22: Messaging-infrastructure providers' strategies for third-party applications and services, selectedvendors, Nov-10........................................................................................................................................................................................... 20

Fig. 23: Global, messaging transaction networks and enterprise messaging providers.............................................21

Fig. 24: US, SMS traffic, 2009-2015.................................................................................................................................................... 22

Case study: Two-way SMS capability for Twitter boosts traffic for mobile operators,but availability is still limited........................................................................................ 27

Fig. 1: AT&T Wireless SMS sign-up to Twitter............................................................................................................................... 27

Fig. 2: Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Twitter application...................................................................................................28

Fig. 3: Twitter mobile Web home screen..........................................................................................................................................28

Fig. 4: Twitter, tweets per day, Jul-07, Jul-08, Jan-09 and Jan-10.........................................................................................29

Fig. 5: Global, Twitter two-way SMS deployments, Dec-10..................................................................................................... 30

Fig. 5: Global, Twitter two-way SMS deployments, Dec-10 (cont.)....................................................................................... 31

Case study: SMS-based group-messaging and communities service TextPlus............33

Fig. 1: North America, Gogii TextPlus mobile operator partners, Dec-10.........................................................................34

Fig. 2: TextPlus, types of communities............................................................................................................................................. 36

Fig. 3: iPhone MyCoolBand Community......................................................................................................................................... 36

Fig. 4: TextPlus, SWOT analysis............................................................................................................................................................37


Case study: Bharti Airtel and Bubble Motion’s Bubbly voice-SMS bloggingservice.............................................................................................................................. 38

Fig. 1: Voice SMS, one-to-one communications............................................................................................................................38

Fig. 2: Bubble Motion’s Bubbly one-to-many communications............................................................................................38

Fig. 3: India, voice-SMS services, selected operators, Mar-10..................................................................................................40

Mobile instant messaging: A market in transition.......................................................42

Fig. 1: Global, selected companies in the mobile instant messaging value chain........................................................ 43

Fig. 2: Selected instant-messaging communities and aggregators, users, Sep-10........................................................ 43

Fig. 3: Selected mobile-instant-messaging communities and aggregators, Sep-10..................................................... 44

Fig. 4: Global, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers, 2004-2010................................45

Fig. 5: Western Europe, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers, 2004-2010............. 45

Fig. 6: North America, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers, 2004-2010............... 45

Fig. 7: Asia Pacific, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers, 2004-2010......................46

Fig. 8: Central and Eastern Europe, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers,2004-2010.......................................................................................................................................................................................................46

Fig. 9: Latin America, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers, 2004-2010.................46

Fig. 10: Middle East and Africa, mobile IM deployments, selected operators and service providers,2004-2010.......................................................................................................................................................................................................46

Fig. 11: Global, mobile IM deployments, by vendor, 2004-2010.......................................................................................... 47

Fig. 12: Mobile IM distribution channel...........................................................................................................................................48

Fig. 13: Global, 20 most expensive mobile IM plans, 3Q10.................................................................................................... 54

Fig. 14: Global, mobile IM plans offered by brand, selected operators, 3Q10.................................................................55

Fig. 15: Global, mobile IM plans by type, selected operators, 3Q10....................................................................................55

Fig. 16: Global, mobile-IM-community deployments, selected operators, 3Q10...........................................................56

Fig. 17: Global smartphone sales, 2009-2015............................................................................................................................... 57

Case study: eBuddy’s strategy for mobile instant messaging..................................... 60

Fig. 1: eBuddy user interface on Android........................................................................................................................................ 61

Fig. 2: eBuddy mobile Internet user interface............................................................................................................................... 61

Fig. 3: eBuddy distribution channel, June 2010........................................................................................................................... 62

Fig. 4: eBuddy mobile users, by region, Jun-10.............................................................................................................................64

Fig. 5: UK, mobile portals, unique visitors per month...............................................................................................................64

Fig. 6: UK, mobile portals, minutes of use per month...............................................................................................................64

Fig. 7: Popular Internet brands, by number of Google searches, Jun-10...........................................................................65

Fig. 8: eBuddy, SWOT analysis.............................................................................................................................................................. 66

Case study: Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Messenger mobile IM service...............67

Fig. 1: Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Messenger alerts capability..................................................................................67

Fig. 2: Global, BlackBerry subscriptions, 1Q09-1Q11................................................................................................................. 69

Fig. 3: BlackBerry Messenger SWOT analysis.................................................................................................................................70

Case study: ForgetMeNot Africa’s Message Optimiser.................................................72

Fig. 1: ForgetMeNot Message Optimiser process overview......................................................................................................73

Fig. 2: ForgetMeNot Message Optimiser SWOT analysis..........................................................................................................75

Rich Communications Suite............................................................................................76

Fig. 1: Rich Communications Suite membership, Sep-10.........................................................................................................77

Fig. 2: Rich Communications Suite specifications, Apr-10.......................................................................................................78

Fig. 3: Telefonica Spain, mobile user trust by provider type, Nov-10..................................................................................80


Fig. 4: Global, RCS activity, Oct-10...................................................................................................................................................... 81

Fig. 5: South Korea, mobile operators' instant messaging service features, Nov-09....................................................83

Fig. 6: SK Telecom's Mobile Messenger, Nov-10........................................................................................................................... 84

Fig. 7: SK Telecom's HD Video Call (Live Share)............................................................................................................................84

Fig. 8: SK Telecom, Mobile Office, Nov-10....................................................................................................................................... 84

Fig. 9: Italy, RCS 1.0 trial feature list, TIM and Wind, 2H09................................................................................................... 85

Fig. 10: Italy, RCS 1.0 interoperability-testing results, TIM and Wind, 2H09.................................................................. 86

Fig. 11: France, Rich Communications Suite 1.0 technical trial features, 4Q09............................................................ 87

Fig. 12: France, service problems in the RCS 1.0 trial, service, Jun-10.................................................................................88

Fig. 13: France, device problems in the RCS 1.0 trial, service, Jun-10..................................................................................88

Fig. 14: France, RCS 1.0 trial, impact on communications, Jun-10......................................................................................89

Fig. 15: France, RCS 1.0 trial, features that appealed to users............................................................................................... 89

Fig. 16: France, RCS 1.0 trial, elements that users disliked...................................................................................................... 90

Fig. 17: Spain, RCS 2.0 trial, frequency of use................................................................................................................................91

Fig. 18: Spain, RCS trial, functions used........................................................................................................................................... 91

Fig. 19: Spain, RCS trial, impact of RCS on mobile communications.................................................................................. 93

Fig. 20: Telekom Srbija mobile and PC clients...............................................................................................................................94

Fig. 21: Telekom Srbija, RCS services tested.................................................................................................................................... 94

Fig. 22: Interoperability among operators......................................................................................................................................95

Fig. 23: China Mobile, 139.com tariffs, Jun-10............................................................................................................................. 96

Fig. 24: Rich Communication Suite mobile clients, selected vendors, Nov-10................................................................ 98

Fig. 25: Movial Communications Mobile for RCS........................................................................................................................ 98

Fig. 26: Eyeball RCS Mobile Messenger.............................................................................................................................................99

Fig. 27: Features of enhanced address book................................................................................................................................100

Fig. 28: Enhanced-address-book value chain.............................................................................................................................. 100

Informa forecasts strong growth in e-mail and instant messaging, but SMS willcontinue to deliver the bulk of revenues and traffic..................................................103

Fig. 1: Global, mobile messaging revenues, by type, 2009-2015....................................................................................... 103

Fig. 2: Global, mobile messaging revenue share by type, 2010 and 2015.....................................................................104

Fig. 3: Global, mobile messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015.............................................................................................. 104

Fig. 4: Global, mobile messaging revenues, by region, 2010 and 2015.......................................................................... 105

Fig. 5: Global, SMS traffic by region, 2010 and 2015..............................................................................................................105

Fig. 6: SMS revenues by region, 2010 and 2015........................................................................................................................106

Fig. 7: MMS traffic by region, 2010 and 2015........................................................................................................................... 106

Fig. 8: MMS revenues by region, 2010 and 2015......................................................................................................................107

Fig. 9: Mobile e-mail revenues by region, 2010 and 2015....................................................................................................107

Fig. 10: E-mail traffic by region, 2010 and 2015...................................................................................................................... 108

Fig. 11: Mobile IM revenues by region, 2010 and 2015.........................................................................................................108

Fig. 12: Mobile IM traffic by region, 2010 and 2015.............................................................................................................. 109

Fig. 13: Global SMS end-user events, 2009-2015...................................................................................................................... 109

Fig. 14: Global SMS revenues, 2009-2015.....................................................................................................................................110

Fig. 15: Global, MMS end-user events, 2009-2015................................................................................................................... 110

Fig. 16: Global, MMS revenues, 2009-2015................................................................................................................................. 111

Fig. 17: Global e-mail end-user events, 2009-2015..................................................................................................................111

Fig. 18: Global, mobile e-mail revenues, 2009-2015............................................................................................................... 111


Fig. 19: Global, mobile-instant-messaging end-user events, 2009-2015....................................................................... 112

Fig. 20: Global, mobile-instant-messaging end-user-event revenues, 2009-2015..................................................... 112

Fig. 21: Global, messaging users, by type, 2009-2015............................................................................................................ 113

Fig. 22: Global, mobile messaging users, by type and region, 2009-2015.....................................................................114

Fig. 23: Africa, mobile messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015.......................................................................................115

Fig. 24: Africa, mobile messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015............................................................................................ 115

Fig. 25: Asia Pacific Developed, mobile messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015.....................................................116

Fig. 26: Asia Pacific Developed, mobile messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015.......................................................... 116

Fig. 27: Asia Pacific Developing, mobile messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015...................................................117

Fig. 28: Asia Pacific Developing, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015........................................................................117

Fig. 29: Central and Eastern Europe, messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015..........................................................118

Fig. 30: Central and Eastern Europe, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015............................................................... 118

Fig. 31: Latin America, messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015......................................................................................119

Fig. 32: Latin America, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015........................................................................................... 119

Fig. 33: Middle East, messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015.......................................................................................... 120

Fig. 34: Middle East, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015................................................................................................ 120

Fig. 35: North America, messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015....................................................................................121

Fig. 36: North America, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015..........................................................................................121

Fig. 37: Western Europe, messaging revenues by type, 2009-2015..................................................................................122

Fig. 38: Western Europe, messaging traffic by type, 2009-2015........................................................................................122

Fig. 39: Forecasts flowchart................................................................................................................................................................. 124

Fig. 40: Forecasts technology splits..................................................................................................................................................125

Global Mobile Messaging Survey 2010.......................................................................127

Fig. 1: Respondents by business type..............................................................................................................................................127

Fig. 2: Mobile operator respondents by network type............................................................................................................ 127

Fig. 3: Location of respondents' head office.................................................................................................................................128

Fig. 4: Contribution of messaging, by type, to mobile operator service revenues, 2009..........................................128

Fig. 5: Contribution of messaging, by type, to mobile operator service revenues, 2015..........................................129

Fig. 6: Messaging penetration, by type, 2009.............................................................................................................................129

Fig. 7: Messaging penetration, by type, 2015.............................................................................................................................130

Fig. 8: Mobile messaging revenue growth to 2015.................................................................................................................. 130

Fig. 9: SMS revenue increase or decrease in 2009.....................................................................................................................131

Fig. 10: Reasons for increase in SMS revenues in 2009..........................................................................................................131

Fig. 11: MMS revenue increase or decrease in 2009................................................................................................................132

Fig. 12: The importance of MMS to overall messaging revenues...................................................................................... 132

Fig. 13: Reasons for considering MMS as not important or only somewhat important......................................... 133

Fig. 14: If you regard MMS as important, very important or extremely important, please indicate why....... 133

Fig. 15: The importance of e-mail to overall messaging revenues....................................................................................134

Fig. 16: Average monthly spend, consumer and enterprise, on mobile e-mail............................................................134

Fig. 17: Average monthly usage, consumer and enterprise, of mobile e-mail............................................................. 135

Fig. 18: The importance of mobile IM to the overall messaging business.....................................................................135

Fig. 19: Average monthly spend per subscriber, mobile IM..................................................................................................136

Fig. 20: Average monthly usage per subscriber, mobile IM..................................................................................................136

Fig. 21: Mobile IM text, image and video traffic proportions............................................................................................. 137

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