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Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited MYT for 4th control period (FY19 – FY21)

LOAD FORECAST

Introduction:

Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited (BESCOM) had completed its 13

years of experience in the area of Distribution Business in the State of Karnataka.

Presently, BESCOM area of operation includes 8 districts of Karnataka. Viz.,

Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural, Ramanagaram, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Tumkur,

Davangare and Chitradurga.

The Commission has issued guidelines for preparation of Load Forecast, Power

Procurement Plan & Power Procurement procedure through regulations:

KERC (Conditions of License for ESCOMs) Regulations, 2004 dated 28.0.2004

KERC (Load Forecast) Regulations, 2009 dated 02.04.2009

As per the Technical Conditions prescribed by the Commission under Chapter

III of the first regulation,

The Licensee shall on an annual basis:

(a) forecast the demand for electricity within the Area of Supply in each of the

next succeeding 10 years;

(b)prepare and submit such forecasts to the Commission in accordance with the

guidelines issued by the Commission from time to time; and

(c) Co-operate with the STU in the preparation of electricity demand forecasts for

the state of Karnataka.

The Commission vide above Load Forecast regulations has directed the Distribution

Licensees to follow the Forecast methodology adopted by CEA from time to time, so

as to have a consistent methodology. Further, it is also stated that the forecast as per

the latest available EPS (Electric Power Survey of India), under fulfillment of CEA’s

obligation under Section 73(a) of Electricity Act, 2003 would be the reference point.


The latest available CEA forecast is 18th EPS.

Energy /Demand requirement of BESCOM constitutes approximately 50% of the

Karnataka State Energy/Demand requirement. Bangalore urban alone constitutes

50% of Energy/Demand requirement of BESCOM. Hence, Bangalore Urban alone

constitutes 25% of the total State Energy /Demand requirement.

BESCOM in its Tariff filing for the 3rd control period i.e., FY-14 to FY-16, had done

the energy forecast up to 2020 under different scenarios.

M/s. Power Research and Development Consultants (PRDC), Bangalore prepared

the Load forest on behalf of Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited

(KPTCL)

M/s. Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSSTP), Bangalore

prepared “Karnataka’s Power Sector Roadmap for 2021-22” and submitted to

Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) during June 2013.

Since, 4th Control period lies between FY-17 to FY-19, within the projections

already projected by BESCOM, KPTCL as well as KERC.

Exhaustive studies are already done for the period from FY-13 to FY-2022 during

FY-12 and FY-13. Actuals of FY-13 to FY-15 figures are on hand, it is felt that based

on the actuals necessary corrections to the future years projections may be

appropriate rather than preparing another estimations. Actuals with respect to

Projection under different methods are verified and necessary corrections are

proposed for the next control period i.e., FY-17 to FY-19.

The actuals are compared to the following projection scenarios and necessary corrections are proposed.

1. Per capita consumption2. 18th draft EPS


3. Circle wise energy sales4. Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSSTP5. Areal Load Dispatch Centre based projections6. Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

1. Estimation on Per capita electricity consumption:

Earlier, during the projections for the 3rd control period ie., FY-14 to FY-16,

BESCOM had projected the per capita consumption for the year from

FY-12 to FY-20 and was filed before KERC on 13.12.2012.

Per capita consumption projected for the period FY-12 to FY-15 is validated with

actual. The increase in per capita is as under:

Projected:

Sl. No

Particulars 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 Total Population 21282235 21822223 22362212 229022012 Projected per capita 1193 1281 1376 14783 Projected increase in % 7.40% 7.38% 7.42% 7.41%4 Projected Energy in Mu 26358 28230 31049 341205 Projected energy requirement on day basis 72 77 85 936 Peak demand Projected (MW) 3779 4047 4452 4892

Sl. No

.Particulars 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 Expected Population for the period 212822352182222

3 22362212 229022012 Actual energy in Mu 25657.71 27834.39 27928.24 294133 Wheeling energy 43.28 484.63 674.38 11004 Total = (2+3) 25700.99 28319.02 28602.62 30513

5Avg. energy in Mu (Avg.) on day basis =(4/no. of days in a year) 70.22 77.59 78.36 83.60

6 Avg. Demand (Avg.) =(5/24hrs*1000) 2925.89 3232.76 3265.14 3483.227 Actual Peak in MW recorded 3953 4144 4321 45718 Load Factor in % =(6/7*100) 74 78 76 76

9Actual per capita =(4/1*10^6) in kWh 1207.63 1297.71 1279.06 1332.32


10Actual growth rate in per capita (1111 unitsfor FY11) 8.70% 7.46% -1.44% 4.16%

Actuals:

It can be seen from the above two tables, per capita projected is at the rate of 7.4%

whereas actual average growth rate works out 4.72%. Consequently, the peak

demand has also reduced. It is significant to note that, the peak demand was

estimated by considering the average demand at 80 % of peak demand, but as per

actual, the average demand is 76% of the peak demand.

By considering the above correction factors, the revised projections of energy up to

2021 are as follows.

Sl Particulars 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1Expected Population for the period 22902201 23442190 23982178 24522167 25062156 25602145 26152591

2

Revised per capita Consumption (Projections) 1332.32 1395.20 1461.06 1530.02 1602.24 1677.86 1757.06

3Projected increase in % 4.16 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.72

4

Revised energy in Mu (Projections) (1*2/10^6) 30513 32706.61 35039.31 37519.36 40155.46 42956.83 45951.55

5

Revised energy in Mu (Avg.) on day basis (Projections)(4/no. of days in a year) 83.60 89.36 96.00 102.79 110.01 117.37 125.55

6

Revised Avg. Demand (Projections)(5/24hrs*1000) 3483.22 3723.43 3999.92 4283.03 4583.96 4890.35 5231.28

7

Revised peak Demand (Projections) (6/76%) 4583.18 4899.25 5263.05 5635.57 6031.52 6434.67 6883.26

Scenario 2: Energy Projection based on 18th Energy Power Survey (EPS)

Report


Earlier on 13.12.2012, BESCOM had projected the Sales as per 18the Energy Power

Survey (EPS) Report.

Earlier Projections are as under:

In MU

YearProjected under draft

18th EPSProjected BESCOM Sales at

46.14% of EPS2012-13 47770 220412013-14 52170 240712014-15 56780 261982015-16 61290 282792016-17 66088 304932017-18 70692 326172018-19 75393 347862019-20 80459 371242019-21 85952 39658

Based on the above, energy input requirement to BESCOM was projected as follows:

YearProjected under draft 18th EPS

Projected BESCOM Sales at 46.14% of EPS

Projected Dist. Loss in percentage

Energy at IF Points

Projected Trans. Loss in percentage

Energy at Gen. points

2012-13 47770 22041 14 25629 3.96 266862013-14 52170 24071 13.8 27925 3.94 290702014-15 56780 26198 13.6 30322 3.92 315592015-16 61290 28279 13.4 32655 3.9 339802016-17 66088 30493 13.2 35130 3.88 365482017-18 70692 32617 13 37491 3.86 389962018-19 75393 34786 12.8 39893 3.84 414862019-20 80459 37124 12.6 42476 3.82 441632020-21 85952 39658 12.4 45272 3.8 47060


Deviation in projections based on actuals

Year

Projected sales in MU for State under 18th

EPS

Actual sales in MU for State

Projected sales in MU for BESCOM under 18th EPS

BESCOM Actual in MU

Deviations to projections (BESCOM level)

Percentage of achievement as against projections

1 2 3 4 5 6 72012-13 47770 45256 22041 22796 755 103.422013-14 52170 46856 24071 23066 -1005 95.822014-15 56780 *50096 26198 **24083 -2115 91.932015-16 61290 *51168 28279 *25342 -2937 89.61

*Approved by KERC for FY-16 in its tariff Order dated 02.03.2015.

**Provisional

YearProjected sales in MU for State under 18th EPS

Projected BESCOM Sales @46.14% on

18th EPS

Revised Projected

sales

% Correction on projected

BESCOM Sales @46.14% on

18th EPS2015-16 61290 28279 25997.07 91.932016-17 66088 30493 28032.22 91.932017-18 70692 32617 29985.07 91.932018-19 75393 34786 31979.07 91.932019-20 80459 37124 34127.89 91.932020-21 85952 39658 36457.83 91.93

BESCOM had projected its Sales at 46.14% on 18th EPS. However, BESCOM actual

sales on 18th EPS works out to 42.41%. The deviation from the projected sales at

column 4 of the above table works out to 91.93%. This correction factor is

considered for future projections as shown in the table below:


For the revised projected sales, distribution and transmission losses (% losses are

retained as per the earlier projections) are added to estimate the revised energy at

generation point. The revised average load in MW is calculated at 73.46% of peak

load in MW, the details are depicted in the table below:

Year 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21Projected sales 24083 25997.1 28032.2 29985.1 31979.1 34127.9 36457.8Projected Dist. Loss in percentage

14.77 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4

Energy at IF Points 28257 30019.7 32295.2 34465.6 36673.2 39047.9 41618.5Projected Trans. Loss in percentage

3.93 3.9 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82 3.8

Energy at Gen. points

29413 31238 33598.8 35849.4 38137.7 40598.8 43262.5

Avg. Energy requirement per day ( in MU)

80.6 85.3 92.1 98.2 104.5 110.9 118.5

Avg .Load requirement ( in MW)

3357.6 3556.2 3835.5 4092.4 4353.6 4621.9 4938.6

Projected peak load (in MW) requirement @73.46%

4570.9 4841.1 5221.2 5570.9 5926.5 6291.7 6722.9

Provisional figures

Comparison of 18th EPS – mega cities, Bangalore with BESCOM’s Bangalore projection.

18th EPS- Mega Cities projections- Bangalore City.Category FY-2016 FY-2017 FY-2018 FY-2019 FY-2020 FY-2021Domestic 4602 4872 5174 5468 5778 6103Commercial & Misc. 4624 4955 5293 5629 5985 6364Public Lighting 231 242 253 263 274 285Public Water works 525 551 577 602 630 656Irrigation 34 33 31 29 27 26Industries LT 1007 1078 1148 1216 1289 1367Industries HT 2531 2601 2659 2715 2772 2832


Railway traction 120 134 150 167 336 378Total consumption in MU 13674 14466 15285 16089 17091 18011Energy Requirement in MU 15377 16260 17165 18050 19155 20163Peak Load in MW 2645 2805 2970 3133 3335 3521

3. BESCOM’s projections considering Bangalore circle’s wise growth rate

Category FY-2016 FY-2017 FY-2018 FY-2019 FY-2020 FY-2021LT-Domestic 4753.1 5060.9 5389.0 5738.7 6111.4 6508.7LT-Commercial 1385.4 1463.4 1546.5 1635.0 1729.3 1829.8Agri 81.1 83.1 85.4 87.9 90.7 93.8LT-Industrial 780.2 807.5 836.4 867.1 899.7 934.4Water Supply 116.9 117.1 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.0Street light 286.6 295.2 304.3 313.9 323.9 334.4Temporary 167.0 191.6 220.0 253.0 291.3 336.0HT-Water Supply 346.2 377.6 412.1 450.1 492.0 538.1HT-Industrial 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8HT-Comml 2597.5 2668.7 2743.6 2822.6 2905.9 2993.7Hosp/Edu 168.3 183.7 200.5 218.9 239.0 260.9Lift Irri. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0HT-Residential 139.3 172.7 219.1 283.1 371.8 494.4Temporary 57.3 69.7 84.8 103.1 125.6 152.8 Total 13113.5 13725.9 14393.7 15125.7 15933.0 16829.7Distribution Loss 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3Energy at IF point 14070.3 14711.6 15410.9 16177.2 17022.5 17961.3Transmission Loss 3.86 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82 3.8Energy at gen point 14635.2 15305.4 16029.6 16823.3 17698.5 18670.8Per day consumption in MU 40.0 41.9 43.9 46.1 48.4 51.2Average Load in MW 1666 1747 1830 1920 2015 2131Peak Load in MW 2252 2361 2473 2595 2723 2880

Scenario 3: Energy Forecast based on circle wise sales growth.

BESCOM had projected the Circle wise energy requirements up to 2020 in its earlier

load forecast.

Earlier projections are as follows:

Sl.No

Particulars Prov. 2012

Growth Rate

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


. (%)1 Bangalore-South 7365 12.00 8249 9239 10347 11589 12980 14537 16282 182352 Bangalore North 3850 3.00 3966 4084 4207 4333 4463 4597 4735 48773 Bangalore-Rural 3710 12.00 4155 4654 5212 5838 6538 7323 8202 91864 Kolar 2203 3.00 2269 2337 2407 2479 2554 2630 2709 27915 Tumkur 2018 2.00 2058 2100 2142 2184 2228 2273 2318 23646 Davenagere 1884 3.00 1941 1999 2059 2120 2184 2250 2317 2387

Total 2103022637

24412

26374 28544 30947 33610 36563 39840

7 Distribution loss 14.46 14.00 13.80 13.60 13.40 13.20 13.00 12.80 12.60

8In put at IF 24584

26323

28321

30526 32961 35653 38632 41930 45584

9 Tr. Loss 4.19 3.96 3.94 3.92 3.9 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82

10Energy requirement.

2565827408

29482

31771 34299 37093 40183 43604 47394

Growth rate6.82%

7.57%

7.76% 7.96% 8.15% 8.33% 8.51% 8.69%

11MW requirement

2929 3129 3395 3647 3925 4232 4571 4946 5355

12

Peak load requirement @ LF of 80% (MW)

3661 3911 4243 4558 4906 5290 5714 6183 6694

At present, BESCOM has 3 Zones, one exclusively catering to Metropolitan

Bangalore city and other two are rural zones. There are 4 circles under Bangalore

zone, 3 circles in Bangalore Rural Area zone and 2 circles in Chitradurga zone. The

details are tabulated below:

Zone Circles

Bangalore Metro Politian Zone (BMAZ)

Bangalore –NorthBangalore- South

Bangalore-EastBangalore-West

Bangalore Rural Area Zone (BRAZ)Bangalore-Rural

KolarRamanagara

Chitradurga Area Zone (CTZ)Tumkur

Davenagere.


The diagram illustrates the circle wise energy consumption over the period from FY

01 to FY 11.

24%

23%17%

13%

13%11%

21%

23%

17%

12%

15%

12% 24%

26%17%

10%

14%

10% 22%

26%

17%

11%

15%

10% 22%

28%

16%

10%

14%

10% 23%

31%17%

8%

12%

9% 21%

32%16%

11%

11%

9%21%

33%17%

10%

11%

9%

Percentage energy consumption

BLR-North

BLR-South

BLR-Rural

TKR

KLR

DVG

Energy consumption circle wise for FY-13 and FY-14 is as under:

BNC11%

BSC20%

BEC15%

BWc7%

BRC19%

KLR10%

TKR10%

DVG9%

11%

19%

15%

8%

19%

9%

9%

9%BNC

BSC

BEC

BWc

BRC

KLR

TKR

DVG


Comparing both graphs, it is evident, Bangalore Rural circle, which consists of

Bangalore periphery ie., Chandapura Division, Nelamangala, Yelahanka ,

Ramanagara division is growing faster. These divisions grab the growth rate of 1%

from Bangalore City (Bangalore Metropolitan Zone) and 1% from Kolar. The rest

Circles maintain the same level of consumption.

Two new circles i.e Bangalore East and Bangalore West are created duly bifurcating

the existing Bangalore North and Bangalore South circles in BMAZ area.

Ramanagara circle is chalked out of existing Bangalore Rural circle. Due to creation

of new circles the percentage growth rate seems to be very unrealistic. Hence, for

the purpose of projections 2year CAGR of the respective circles are considered. In

case of negative 2 year CAGR correction factor of one year growth rate is considered.

Further, if one year growth is also negative the FY15 figures are retained for the

projected years.

Circle wise tariff wise sales projections are shown in the below tables:

Bangalore North Circle.

Category FY13 FY14 FY15CAGR -

2yrsCorrection

factor FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

BJ/KJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Domestic 861.22 898.26 949.22 5% 5% 996.681046.

5 1098.81153.

7 1211.4 1272.0Commercial 204.76 210.74 227.25 5% 5% 239.29

251.97 265.33

279.39 294.20 309.79

IP sets 42.95 55.43 43.62 1% 1% 43.97 44.33 44.68 45.04 45.40 45.76LT Industries 223.00 213.32 217.54 -1% 2% 221.89

226.33 230.85

235.47 240.18 244.98

Water Supply 48.35 40.15 39.60 -9% 0% 39.60 39.60 39.60 39.60 39.60 39.60Public lighting 59.71 58.75 65.17 4% 5% 68.11 71.17 74.38 77.72 81.22 84.87Temporary Supply 19.36 20.74 27.63 19% 19% 32.99 39.38 47.03 56.15 67.04 80.05Water Supply 6.48 6.48 6.93 3% 3% 7.16 7.41 7.66 7.92 8.19 8.46HT Industrial. 867.37 830.11 754.17 -7% 0% 754.17

754.17 754.17

754.17 754.17 754.17

Commerci 217.77 208.01 171.90 -5% 0% 171.90 171.9 171.90 171.9 171.90 171.90


al 0 0Hospitals & Educ 17.83 26.67 9% 29.07 31.68 34.53 37.64 41.03 44.72Lift Irrgtn Socities 0.18 0.00 0.00 0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 29.03 29.32 28.94 0% 0% 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94 28.94Temporary Supply 6.16 8.26 8.50 17% 18% 9.99 11.74 13.79 16.20 19.04 22.37TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 2586.32 2597.41 2567.1 2643.7

2775.9 2914.7

3060.4 3213.5 3374.1

Bangalore South Circle:

Category 2013 2014 2015CAGR - 2yrs

Correction

factorFY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

BJ/KJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Domestic 1452.31540.

1 1665.8 7% 7% 1784.0 1910.6 2046.1 2191.3 2346.8 2513.3

Commercial 410.84434.0

3 478.58 8% 8% 516.52 557.48 601.69 649.39 700.89 756.46

IPSets 37.23 9.83 0.13 -94% 0% 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

LT Industires 142.67138.7

3 138.94 -1% 0% 139.14 139.34 139.54 139.74 139.94 140.15

Water Supply 38.57 32.26 28.93 -13% 0% 28.93 28.93 28.93 28.93 28.93 28.93

Public lighting 88.08 90.08 81.16 -4% 0% 81.16 81.16 81.16 81.16 81.16 81.16Temporary Supply 45.52 46.91 57.71 13% 13% 64.97 73.16 82.37 92.74 104.42 117.57

Water Supply 211.77 13.60 12.99 -75% 0% 12.99 12.99 12.99 12.99 12.99 12.99

HT Industrial 834.02848.1

1 749.68 -5% 0% 749.68 749.68 749.68 749.68 749.68 749.68

Commercial 1297.11185.

5 1249.5 -2% 5% 1317.0 1388.1 1463.1 1542.1 1625.3 1713.1Hospitals & Educ 32.58 82.00 9% 89.63 97.98 107.10 117.08 127.98 139.90Lift Irrgtn Socities 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 47.70 32.67 19.95 -35% 0 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95 19.95Temporary Supply 13.65 29.61 20.54 23% 23% 25.19 30.91 37.91 46.51 57.05 69.98TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 4619.6

4434.0 4585.9 4829.3 5090.4 5370.7 5671.7 5995.3 6343.4


Bangalore East Circle:

Category 2013 2014 2015 CAGR - 2yrs

Correction


BJ/KJ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Domestic974.4

3 1017.9 1107.9 6.6% 6.63% 1181.3 1259.6 1343.1 1432.2 1527.1 1628.4

Commercial 402.6

4 404.71 424.49 2.7% 2.68% 435.86 447.54 459.52 471.83 484.47 497.44

IPSets 9.01 10.27 11.51 13.0% 13.0% 13.01 14.71 16.62 18.79 21.24 24.01

LT Industires 95.68 96.37 95.55 -0.1% 0 95.55 95.55 95.55 95.55 95.55 95.55

Water Supply 31.58 29.96 21.35 -17.8% 0 21.35 21.35 21.35 21.35 21.35 21.35

Public lighting 66.50 51.41 74.88 6.1% 6.11% 79.45 84.31 89.47 94.94 100.74 106.90

Temporary 33.13 30.02 40.47 10.5% 10.5% 44.73 49.43 54.64 60.39 66.74 73.77

Water Supply 13.14 17.27 18.18 17.6% 17.6% 21.38 25.14 29.56 34.76 40.88 48.07

HT Industrial. 564.3

7 656.10 548.22 -1.4% 0 548.22 548.22 548.22 548.22 548.22 548.22

Commercial 1109.

3 1164.3 1013.9 -4.4% 0 1013.9 1013.9 1013.9 1013.9 1013.9 1013.9Hospitals & Educ 11.27 22.25 9% 24.25 26.44 28.82 31.41 34.24 37.32

Lift Irrgtn Soc 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 32.37 35.81 62.14 38.5% 38.5% 86.09 119.28 165.26 228.96 317.22 439.50

Temporary 0.00 1.37 13.92 23% 17.07 20.94 25.69 31.51 38.66 47.42TOTAL ( LT + HT )

3332.1 3526.8 3454.7 3582.2 3726.4 3891.7 4083.8 4310.3 4581.8

Bangalore West Circle:

Category 2013 2014 2015CAGR -

2yrs

Correction


BJ/KJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Domestic 650.85703.1

4 741.22 6.7% 6.7% 791.00 844.13 900.83 961.33 1025.9 1094.8


2 181.75 6.6% 6.6% 193.68 206.39 219.93 234.36 249.74 266.13

IPSets 9.04 31.64 23.94 62.7% 23.94 23.94 23.94 23.94 23.94 23.94

LT Industries 264.29293.0

0 302.52 7.0% 7.0% 323.66 346.28 370.47 396.36 424.06 453.69


Water Supply 26.32 26.47 26.75 0.8% 0.8% 26.97 27.19 27.42 27.64 27.87 28.10

Public lighting 55.82 56.01 57.19 1.2% 1.2% 57.89 58.59 59.31 60.03 60.76 61.50

Temporary 13.55 14.23 20.02 21.6% 21.6% 24.34 29.58 35.96 43.71 53.13 64.59

Water Supply 15.25256.4

8 279.54 328% 9.0% 304.67 332.07 361.93 394.47 429.94 468.60

HT Industrial. 193.81195.9

9 182.70 -2.9% 0 182.70 182.70 182.70 182.70 182.70 182.70


8 94.70 -1.3% 0 94.70 94.70 94.70 94.70 94.70 94.70Hospitals & Educ 2.87 23.21 9% 25.30 27.58 30.06 32.76 35.71 38.93

Lift Irrgtn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 1.05 3.71 3.98 94.4% 7.2% 4.27 4.57 4.90 5.26 5.64 6.04

Temporary 0.37 3.45 4.17 237% 21.0% 5.04 6.10 7.38 8.92 10.80 13.06TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 1487.5

1871.8 1941.6 2058.1 2183.8 2319.5 2466.2 2624.8 2796.7

Bangalore Rural Circle:


2yrs

Correction


BJ/KJ 7.65 9.30 9.76 12.9% 1.9% 9.94 10.13 10.32 10.52 10.72 10.92


7 223.65 15.6% 15.6% 258.43 298.63 345.08 398.76 460.79 532.46

Commercial 51.78 59.60 69.74 16.1% 16.1% 80.93 93.92 109.00 126.49 146.79 170.35

IPSets 811.38736.6

5 755.23 -3.5% 3% 774.29 793.82 813.85 834.38 855.43 877.01


6 117.61 5.8% 5.8% 124.48 131.76 139.46 147.61 156.24 165.37

Water Supply 38.64 39.86 39.86 1.6% 1.6% 40.49 41.13 41.77 42.43 43.10 43.78

Public lighting 14.83 15.91 11.99 -10.1% 0 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99

Temporary 8.00 11.64 9.65 9.9% 9.9% 10.60 11.65 12.80 14.06 15.44 16.97

Water Supply 12.28 2.29 2.22 -57.5% 0 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.22


2 605.63 1.3% 1.3% 613.23 620.91 628.69 636.58 644.55 652.63


0 129.98 16.8% 17% 151.86 177.43 207.30 242.20 282.98 330.62Hospitals & Educ 0.07 1.10 9% 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.55 1.69 1.85

Lift Irrgtn 0.59 0.84 0.87 21.5% 21.5% 1.05 1.28 1.56 1.89 2.30 2.79Residential Apart. 1.56 1.44 2.34 22.4% 22.4% 2.86 3.50 4.29 5.25 6.42 7.86

Temporary 0.00 2.42 7.83 21.0% 9.47 11.46 13.86 16.77 20.28 24.53TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 1905.1

1971.7 1987.4 2093.0 2211.1 2343.6 2492.7 2660.9 2851.3


Ramanagara Circle:


Correction


BJ/KJ 11.32 12.90 13.95 11.0% 1.9% 14.21 14.48 14.76 15.03 15.32 15.61


9 234.71 4.3% 4.3% 244.84 255.42 266.45 277.96 289.97 302.50

Commercial 56.19 59.21 68.15 10.1% 10.1% 75.05 82.66 91.03 100.25 110.40 121.59

IPSets 407.93370.0

0 392.46 -1.9% 6.1% 416.28 441.55 468.35 496.78 526.94 558.92


0 103.50 -15.9% 0 103.50 103.50 103.50 103.50 103.50 103.50

Water Supply 44.12 31.29 29.76 -17.9% 0 29.76 29.76 29.76 29.76 29.76 29.76

Public lighting 23.40 19.56 11.57 -29.7% 0 11.57 11.57 11.57 11.57 11.57 11.57

Temporary 11.14 14.10 16.36 21.2% 21.2% 19.82 24.02 29.11 35.27 42.74 51.79

Water Supply 214.67257.5

9 275.94 13.4% 13.4% 312.85 354.70 402.15 455.95 516.94 586.08

HT Industrial. 1124.41198.

6 1016.5 -4.9% 0 1016.5 1016.5 1016.5 1016.5 1016.5 1016.5

Commercial 52.92 48.06 44.72 -8.1% 0 44.72 44.72 44.72 44.72 44.72 44.72Hospitals & Educ 13.40 12.97 0 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97 12.97

Lift Irrgtn 9.28 8.15 15.01 27.2% 27.2% 19.09 24.29 30.89 39.29 49.97 63.55Residential Apart. 3.02 3.31 3.44 6.8% 6.8% 3.68 3.93 4.20 4.48 4.78 5.11

Temporary 0.00 1.75 3.36 0.0% 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36 3.36TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 2320.4

2349.2 2242.4 2328.2 2423.4 2529.3 2647.4 2779.4 2927.5

Kolar Circle:


2yrs

Correction


BJ/KJ 25.67 28.32 29.71 7.6% 1.9% 30.27 30.84 31.43 32.02 32.62 33.24

Domestic 189.6 218.0 221.7 8.1% 8.1% 239.77 259.27 280.36 303.17 327.83 354.50

Commercial 50.66 55.50 57.42 6.5% 6.5% 61.14 65.09 69.31 73.79 78.56 83.65

IPSets 1494 1359 1612 3.9% 3.9% 1675.1 1740.0 1807.4 1877.4 1950.2 2025.7

LT Industires 49.08 48.21 52.42 3.3% 3.3% 54.17 55.98 57.86 59.79 61.79 63.85

Water Supply 115.3 134.1 109.6 -2.5% 0 109.61 109.61 109.61 109.61 109.61 109.61

Public lighting 33.09 35.68 31.78 -2.0% 0 31.78 31.78 31.78 31.78 31.78 31.78

Temporary 2.29 2.67 3.34 20.7% 21% 4.03 4.86 5.87 7.08 8.55 10.32

Water Supply 3.28 3.37 2.82 -7.4% 0 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82

HT Industrial. 232.3 250.4 330.5 19.3% 10.0% 363.64 400.01 440.01 484.01 532.41 585.65


Commercial 8.85 5.94 10.74 10.2% 10.2% 11.83 13.03 14.35 15.81 17.42 19.19Hospitals & Educ 2.05 2.28 11.5% 2.55 2.84 3.17 3.53 3.94 4.39

Lift Irrgtn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 1.81 0.87 1.95 3.8% 3.8% 2.03 2.10 2.18 2.26 2.35 2.44Temporary Supply 0.00 0.54 0 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 2206 2144 2467 2589.3 2718.8 2856.7 3003.6 3160.4 3327.7

Tumkur Circle:


Correction factor

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

BJ/KJ 25.39 22.67 24.28 -2.2% 2% 24.74 25.21 25.69 26.17 26.67 27.17


3 225.54 9.1% 9.1% 246.17 268.69 293.27 320.09 349.37 381.32

Commercial 51.67 55.40 60.78 8.5% 8.5% 65.93 71.51 77.56 84.12 91.24 98.96

IPSets 1533.61409.

5 1722.4 6.0% 4.0% 1791.3 1862.9 1937.4 2014.9 2095.5 2179.3

LT Industires 48.33 50.46 47.24 -1.1% 0 47.24 47.24 47.24 47.24 47.24 47.24

Water Supply 63.47 72.61 68.91 4.2% 4.2% 71.80 74.81 77.95 81.22 84.63 88.19

Public lighting 25.47 27.48 22.29 -6.5% 0 22.29 22.29 22.29 22.29 22.29 22.29

Temporary 2.62 2.78 3.05 7.8% 7.8% 3.29 3.55 3.82 4.12 4.45 4.80

Water Supply 14.77 15.64 15.45 2.3% 2.3% 15.79 16.15 16.51 16.88 17.26 17.65


8 308.60 8.0% 8.0% 333.36 360.10 388.99 420.20 453.91 490.33

Commercial 12.17 12.50 9.40 -12.1% 17% 11.03 12.94 15.19 17.82 20.90 24.53Hospitals & Educ 0.23 5.54 17% 6.50 7.62 8.95 10.49 12.31 14.45

Lift Irrgtn 1.43 0.01 0.00100.0

% 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential Apart. 1.71 1.60 1.19 -16.6% 3.8% 1.24 1.28 1.33 1.38 1.44 1.49Temporary Supply 0.04 0.24 0 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 2234.5

2177.3 2514.9 2640.9 2774.5 2916.4 3067.2 3227.5 3398.0

Davenagere Circle:



Correction


BJ/KJ 55.59 50.69 57.71 1.9% 1.9% 58.80 59.91 61.04 62.19 63.36 64.56


0 298.81 7.5% 7.5% 321.17 345.20 371.04 398.80 428.64 460.71

Commercial 69.72 70.27 80.65 7.6% 7.6% 86.75 93.30 100.36 107.94 116.10 124.87

IPSets 1389.41263.

7 1315.3 -2.7% 4% 1369.0 1424.9 1483.1 1543.7 1606.7 1672.4

LT Industires 49.82 51.79 54.12 4.2% 4.2% 56.41 58.80 61.29 63.88 66.58 69.40

Water Supply 57.78 60.37 70.89 10.8% 10.8% 78.52 86.97 96.32 106.69 118.17 130.89

Public lighting 38.04 39.57 34.29 -5.1% 0 34.29 34.29 34.29 34.29 34.29 34.29

Temporary 4.01 4.26 4.45 5.3% 5.3% 4.69 4.94 5.20 5.48 5.77 6.08

Water Supply 31.65 40.20 42.03 15.2% 15.2% 48.44 55.82 64.33 74.14 85.44 98.46


8 118.99 3.4% 3.4% 123.09 127.34 131.73 136.27 140.97 145.84Commercial TOTAL 18.19 11.05 12.73 -16.4% 1.7% 12.94 13.16 13.38 13.61 13.84 14.07

Hospitals & Educ 9.48 8.15 #DIV/0! 1.7% 8.28 8.42 8.57 8.71 8.86 9.01

Lift Irrgtn 0.01 0.02 0.06 200.1% 0 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Residential Apart. 1.96 1.01 1.71 -6.5% 69% 2.89 4.88 8.23 13.89 23.45 39.59

Temporary 0.00 0.00 0.14 #DIV/0! 0% 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14

TOTAL ( LT + HT ) 2086.11 1975.45 2100.10 2205.56 2318.22 2439.16 2569.84 2712.47 2870.37

BESCOM Avg. Energy and Avg. Demand requirement estimated.

Tariff categoryFY-15

(Prov.)CAGR 4yrs

Correction

factorFY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21

LT-1 84 12.2% 0% 84 84 84 84 84 84LT-2(a) 5683 7.6% 7.6% 6114.8 6579.5 7079.4 7617.4 8196.2 8819.0LT-2(b) 37 6.6% 6.6% 39.4 42.0 44.8 47.7 50.9 54.2LT-3 1649 8.5% 8.5% 1788.3 1939.6 2103.7 2281.7 2474.7 2684.1LT-4(a) 5868 7.0% 7.0% 6280.8 6722.5 7195.2 7701.1 8242.7 8822.3LT-4(b) 5 -5.9% 0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3LT-4( c ) 4 4.8% 4.8% 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1LT-5 1129 3.4% 3.4% 1168.0 1207.9 1249.3 1292.0 1336.2 1381.9LT-6a(i)WR 436 1.7% 1.7% 443.2 450.8 458.5 466.4 474.4 482.6LT-6a(ii)SL 390 2.3% 2.3% 399.2 408.2 417.5 427.0 436.6 446.6LT-7 183 18.3% 18.3% 216.1 255.5 302.2 357.5 422.8 500.1LT Total 15468 6.9% 16543.1 17699.6 18944.4 20284.8 21728.8 23285.2HT-1 656 8.0% 8.0% 708.4 765.1 826.3 892.3 963.6 1040.7HT-2(a) 4615 4.2% 1.9% 4702.1 4790.8 4881.2 4973.3 5067.1 5162.7HT-2(b) 2738 3.5% 1.1% 2768.5 2799.8 2831.3 2863.3 2895.6 2928.3HT-2© 184 1.1% 186.1 188.2 190.3 192.5 194.7 196.9HT-3(a) 36 115.7% 0.0% 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0HT3 (b) 0 9.8% 9.8% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3


HT-4 126 4.5% 4.5% 131.9 137.8 143.9 150.4 157.1 164.1HT-5 260 0.0% 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6HT TOTAL 8615 5.8% 5.8% 8792.9 8977.5 9169.0 9367.7 9574.0 9788.6TOTAL 24083 6.5% 25336.0 26677.1 28113.4 29652.4 31302.8 33073.8Distribution loss in % 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4Energy requirement at IF point 29256 30734 32314 34005 35816 37755Transmission loss in % 3.90 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82 3.8Energy requirement at Generation point 30444 31975 33612 35363 37238 39247Avg. Day wise consumption in Mu 83 88 92 97 102 108Avg. day wise demand in MW 3475 3650 3837 4037 4251 4480Peak demand requirement 4696 4933 5185 5455 5744 6054

BESCOM had projected 7.97 average growth rate in its earlier filing. But as per

actuals the average growth rate has been reduced to 5.5%.

4. Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSTEP

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, (CSTEP), Dr. Rajaramanna

Complex, Rajabhavan Circle, High Grounds, Bangalore has prepared Karnataka’s

Power Sector Roadmap for 2021-22 on behalf of Karnataka Electricity Regulatory

Commission and submitted the same to Hon’ble KERC during July 2013. M/s CSTEP

had also prepared the report based on 4 years CAGR. The report compared the

estimates with the Road map projected by KPTCL and 18th EPS. The projections are

for the whole State. The projected figures are as under:

Projected unrestricted and restricted energy requirement at bus bar

(Million Units)

Year

Projected bus-bar requirement

(restricted demand)

YoY growth

rate

Projected bus-bar requirement (unrestricted

demand)

YoY growth

rate

18th EPS Projections

FY-14 63,412 4.6% 66,835 4.1% 62980 FY-15 67,355 6.6% 70,778 5.9% 68208


FY-16 71,597 6.6% 75,020 6.0% 73278 FY-17 76,164 6.7% 79,587 6.1% 78637 FY-18 81,081 6.8% 84,504 6.2% 83917 FY-19 86,880 7.5% 90,303 6.9% 89285 FY-20 93,160 7.5% 96,583 7.0% 95059 FY-21 99,965 7.6% 1,03,388 7.0% 101309 FY-22 1,07,342 7.6% 1,10,765 7.1% 108012

Peak Demand Projections in different scenarios till FY-22 Year

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 With 9% CAGR

11035 12028 13111 14291 15577 16979 18507 20173 21988

With 70% Load Factor

10899 11542 12234 12979 13781 14727 15751 16860 18063

PRDC Projections

11317 12776 14107 15539 16956 18235 19501 20831 22209

18th EPS Projections

10198 11123 12036 13010 13964 14945 16005 17159 18403

State is still facing the energy shortage and continued with restricted hours of

Supply. Hence, it is appropriate to consider restricted hours of projections for the

next control period. State actuals for FY-14 and FY-15 is now on hand. For FY-16,

Commission approved energy and peak load attained as under:

Year State actual Energy in MU Peak load In MW

FY-14 58495 9223(13.02.2013)

FY-15 60668 9549(26.03.2015)


Actual Year on Year growth rate is reduced to 3.71% as against the projected 6.6%

for FY-15. Recorded State peak load is 72% of the average peak load. Based on

these actual, the State projections are revised. Details are as under.

YearProjected bus-bar

requirement (restricted demand)

YoY growth

rate

Revised bus-bar requirements

(restricted demand)

YoY growth

rateFY-14 63,412 4.60% 58495 2.18%FY-15 67,355 6.60% 60668 3.71%FY-16 71,597 6.60% 62623 3.22%FY-17 76,164 6.70% 64702 3.32%FY-18 81,081 6.80% 66915 3.42%FY-19 86,880 7.50% 69270 3.52%FY-20 93,160 7.50% 71778 3.62%FY-21 99,965 7.60% 74448 3.72%

Taking 48% (As noticed in the past records) of the State revised bus-bar

requirement (restricted demand) as BESCOM requirement and considering the

transmission loss, projected energy requirement at generation point is worked out

as under.

Year FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 Revised bus-bar requirements (restricted demand)

64702 66915 69270 71778 74448

Actual energy drawn by BESCOM at bus bar 31057 32119 33250 34453 35735Tr. loss 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82 3.80Energy requirement at Gen. Point 32311 33409 34577 35822 37147Avg. Load requirement in MW 3688 3814 3947 4089 4240Peak load requirement in MW 5123 5297 5482 5680 5890

Scenario 4: Energy Forecast based on Area Load Despatch Centre details

(ALDC), BESCOM.

BESCOM for the first time is projecting the energy demand based on the details

made available by ALDC. The season wise daily consumption (MU) pattern for the

period from Oct-2012 up to Apr-2015 (last 3 years) are charted. A table depicting


the maximum, minimum and average consumption during the season for each year

is also tabulated.

Summer season: (energy in MU):

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th10th

11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Summer 2013

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13


11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Summer 2014




11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Summer 2015


Summer 2013 2014 2015Max 88.07 98.59 104.12Min 67.80 74.06 67.45Avg 81.53 88.14 90.03Growth 8% 2%

Rainy Season: (energy in MU):



11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Rainy 2013

Jun-13 July-13 Aug-13 Sep-13


11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

Rainy 2014

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14

Rainy 2013 2014Max 84.72 92.25Min 54.61 65.63Avg 71.41 79.73Growth 8%

Winter Season: (energy in MU)



11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Winter 2012

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13


11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st50.060.0

70.080.090.0

100.0

Winter 2013



11th12th

13th14th

15th16th

17th18th

19th20th 21st

22nd23rd

24th25th

26th27th

28th29th

30th 31st50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Winter 2014


Winter 2012 2013 2014

Max 86.63 88.99 93.47Min 46.25 59.52 56.72Avg 75.31 78.75 79.94

Growth 5% 2%


From the above graphs it can be seen that the consumption pattern during the

summer months are more. The details of energy consumption in MU for the period

from Oct-2012 upto Apr-2015 are available. Based on these details season wise

clustered curves are plotted as shown in the above graphs. From the available data,

3 years of summer terms, 2 years of rainy terms and 3 years of winter terms are

plotted.

This data is made use of to project the season wise consumption details for future

years. For summer and winter seasons since 3 year terms are available, CAGR

formula is made use of for projections. For rainy season since 2 year term is

available one year growth rate is assumed for projections. The details are shown in

the table below:

Summer CAGR Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15 Feb Mar Apr May

2310 2609 2466 2397 2497 2766 2727 2587 2596 2940 2646 2621 6% 6% 4% 5%Rainy

One year growthJun-13

July-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14 Jun Jul Aug Sep

2158 2222 2304 2028 2408 2496 2397 2426 12% 12% 4% 20%Winter

CAGR Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15 Oct Nov Dec Jan

2261 2124 2380 2498 2285 2298 2486 2618 2202 2332 2589 2709 1% 5% 4% 4%

Based on the above CAGR and One year growth rate the month wise, season wise

projections for the future years are estimated. The season wise projections for

future years are shown in the table below:

Summer Feb Mar Apr May2016 2751.5 3121.1 2740.7 2740.82017 2916.6 3313.1 2838.8 2865.92018 3091.5 3516.9 2940.4 2996.72019 3276.9 3733.2 3045.7 3133.5


2020 3473.4 3962.8 3154.7 3276.52021 3681.8 4206.6

Winter Oct Nov Dec Jan2016 2249.3 2559.5 2817.2 2938.72017 2273.6 2681.5 2938.5 3060.62018 2298.0 2809.4 3065.0 3187.62019 2322.8 2943.4 3196.9 3319.92020 2347.8 3083.8 3334.6 3457.72021 2373.1 3230.8 3478.2 3601.1

Rainy Jun Jul Aug Sep2015 2687.3 2803.1 2492.3 2903.52016 2998.6 3148.5 2592.0 3474.62017 3346.0 3536.6 2695.6 4158.12018 3733.6 3972.4 2803.3 4975.92019 4166.1 4461.9 2915.3 5954.62020 4648.8 5011.8 3031.9 7125.82021 5187.3 5629.5 3153.1 8527.4

The month wise clustered projections of each season are grouped into financial

years to arrive at the input energy at generation point from FY17 to FY21. The

details are depicted in the table below:

Month FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21Apr 2646.0 2740.7 2838.8 2940.4 3045.7 3154.7May 2621.1 2740.8 2865.9 2996.7 3133.5 3276.5Jun 2687.3 2998.6 3346.0 3733.6 4166.1 4648.8Jul 2803.1 3148.5 3536.6 3972.4 4461.9 5011.8Aug 2492.3 2592.0 2695.6 2803.3 2915.3 3031.9Sep 2903.5 3474.6 4158.1 4975.9 5954.6 7125.8Oct 2225.4 2249.3 2273.6 2298.0 2322.8 2347.8Nov 2443.0 2559.5 2681.5 2809.4 2943.4 3083.8Dec 2700.9 2817.2 2938.5 3065.0 3196.9 3334.6Jan 2821.6 2938.7 3060.6 3187.6 3319.9 3457.7Feb 2751.5 2916.6 3091.5 3276.9 3473.4 3681.8Mar 3121.1 3313.1 3516.9 3733.2 3962.8 4206.6Total 32216.8 34489.5 37003.4 39792.5 42896.5 46361.7% Growth 7.05% 7.29% 7.54% 7.80% 8.08%


Avg. MW projected 3678 3937 4224 4543 4897 5292Peak MW projected 4970 5320 5708 6139 6617 7152

This energy at generation point includes BESCOM consumption as well as wheeling,

banking, station auxiliary and open access consumption. Hence, the energy

projected and the growth rate are more in this method of projection. In other words,

the system or BESCOM’s grid is presently capable of handling this amount of energy.

This projection gives the road map for developing BESCOM’s distribution network.

Speaking of distribution network, the details of distribution transformers in MVA

from FY13 to FY15 are shown in the table below: The urban and rural details are

also depicted.

Year Connected Load in MW Urban Load in MW Rural Load in MWFY13 13520 8229 5291FY14 14577 9068 5509FY15 15561 9843 5717

The details of actual hourly, monthly peak demand (in MW) for the year 2011, 2012,

2013, 2014 and 2015(May15) are available. From this data, hourly peak of each year

is computed as shown in the tables below.

Year0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00

10:00

11:00

12:00

2011319

6339

5330

7328

6342

4361

8334

0362

3379

4375

4 3716 3655 3604

2012384

8378

1387

4378

5374

7362

9387

9372

7391

6398

3 4091 3846 3864

2013354

8358

4350

0344

5347

9358

1374

1393

3418

6402

0 3930 3927 3860

2014381

7400

1386

3372

1386

1390

6393

7420

0429

0429

5 4349 4317 44202015

*418

5417

4384

6387

7388

9417

4423

0435

9450

4452

8 4576 4535 4490

Year 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:002011 3582 3510 3518 3497 3451 3463 3681 3644 3573 3461 3291


2012 3803 3714 3774 3700 3655 3590 3953 3971 3898 3851 38432013 3799 3741 3675 3708 3631 3761 4027 3955 3949 3914 37162014 4182 4262 4144 4145 4028 3957 4249 4156 4007 4096 40712015* 4445 4393 4597 4292 4165 4320 4320 4304 4125 4493 4350

*Details up to May-15 are available

The graph of hourly peak demand for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 are plotted

as depicted below:

0:001:00

2:003:00

4:005:00

6:007:00

8:009:00

10:0011:00

12:0013:00

14:0015:00

16:0017:00

18:0019:00

20:0021:00

22:0023:00

3000320034003600380040004200440046004800

Peak demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(upto may)

in M

W

Taking this as the base, projected peak demand on cumulative growth

rate for 2016 to 2021 is as under:

0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:002016 4477 4395 3993 4041 4015 4326 4487 4565 4701 4745 48212017 4603 4536 4010 4091 4075 4507 4618 4779 4900 4933 49922018 4886 4790 4145 4264 4234 4749 4844 4984 5068 5163 52732019 5144 4967 4207 4391 4316 4946 5065 5167 5259 5369 54842020 5360 5155 4296 4514 4420 5123 5259 5361 5440 5568 56972021 5575 5342 4372 4631 4521 5319 5449 5558 5622 5771 5912

11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:002016 4786 4744 4691 4646 4915 4517 4366 4566 4496 4487 4276 4796 46642017 5023 4960 4912 4879 5199 4720 4541 4815 4626 4607 4363 5019 48442018 5299 5242 5198 5171 5606 4980 4776 5074 4774 4772 4464 5295 51372019 5522 5415 5432 5366 5938 5165 4943 5345 4898 4920 4577 5589 53852020 5755 5640 5661 5599 6233 5374 5130 5578 5041 5069 4688 5838 5625


2021 5994 5862 5900 5835 6552 5585 5318 5825 5177 5213 4790 6092 5862

0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:003000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

The details energy consumption (units) of 19 towns (R-APDRP Towns) was

captured from Infosys software. Out of the 19 towns, one year consumption (units)

of only 13 towns was available. The available energy consumption (in units) of 13

towns for FY15 are shown in the tables below:

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionBangarapaete 1 2015 2,210,777Bangarapaete 2 2015 2,263,808Bangarapaete 3 2015 2,492,726Bangarapaete 4 2014 1,589,965Bangarapaete 5 2014 2103255Bangarapaete 6 2014 2103255Bangarapaete 7 2014 2103255Bangarapaete 8 2014 2103255Bangarapaete 9 2014 2,912,973Bangarapaete 10 2014 1,149,280Bangarapaete 11 2014 2103255Bangarapaete 12 2014 2103255

Town Name Month Year Metered Consumption


Chickaballapura 1 2015 2,746,184Chickaballapura 2 2015 2,314,667Chickaballapura 3 2015 2,702,017Chickaballapura 4 2014 3,206,593Chickaballapura 5 2014 2,746,184Chickaballapura 6 2014 2,746,184Chickaballapura 7 2014 3,328,146Chickaballapura 8 2014 2,455,993Chickaballapura 9 2014 2,467,446Chickaballapura 10 2014 2,024,618Chickaballapura 11 2014 3,469,997Chickaballapura 12 2014 2,746,184

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionChitradurga 1 2015 4,353,429Chitradurga 2 2015 4,183,138Chitradurga 3 2015 5,089,261Chitradurga 4 2014 5,665,840Chitradurga 5 2014 6,460,982Chitradurga 6 2014 4,482,202Chitradurga 7 2014 5,781,245Chitradurga 8 2014 5,068,564Chitradurga 9 2014 4,320,452Chitradurga 10 2014 4,435,231Chitradurga 11 2014 4,320,573Chitradurga 12 2014 4,424,583

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionDavangere 1 2015 15,551,519Davengere 2 2015 16,663,041Davangere 3 2015 17,936,082Davangere 4 2014 16,876,646Davangere 5 2014 17,831,285Davangere 6 2014 16,581,792Davangere 7 2014 15,404,599Davangere 8 2014 15,022,827Davangere 9 2014 15,785,878Davangere 10 2014 15,670,482Davangere 11 2014 15,063,352Davangere 12 2014 16,031,456

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionHarappanahalli 1 2015 921,496Harappanahalli 2 2015 915,029


Harappanahalli 3 2015 900,488Harappanahalli 4 2014 935,237Harappanahalli 5 2014 767,401Harappanahalli 6 2014 884,027Harappanahalli 7 2014 900,488Harappanahalli 8 2014 900,488Harappanahalli 9 2014 900,488Harappanahalli 10 2014 928,774Harappanahalli 11 2014 870,156Harappanahalli 12 2014 981,783

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionHarihara 1 2015 3,228,401Harihara 2 2015 3,075,765Harihara 3 2015 3,505,768Harihara 4 2014 3,721,763Harihara 5 2014 3,753,791Harihara 6 2014 3,569,862Harihara 7 2014 3,571,059Harihara 8 2014 3,393,264Harihara 9 2014 3,389,367Harihara 10 2014 3,235,275Harihara 11 2014 3,105,431Harihara 12 2014 3,341,832

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionHosakote 1 2015 2,688,715Hosakote 2 2015 2,446,006Hosakote 3 2015 2,736,418Hosakote 4 2014 2,362,849Hosakote 5 2014 3,381,899Hosakote 6 2014 3,043,747Hosakote 7 2014 2,954,357Hosakote 8 2014 2,654,327Hosakote 9 2014 2,572,872Hosakote 10 2014 2,511,019Hosakote 11 2014 2,455,081Hosakote 12 2014 2,457,284

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionKolar 1 2015 4,925,352Kolar 2 2015 4,711,075Kolar 3 2015 5,455,982Kolar 4 2014 4,904,971


Kolar 5 2014 4,944,132Kolar 6 2014 5,216,993Kolar 7 2014 4,983,386Kolar 8 2014 5,022,459Kolar 9 2014 5,045,304Kolar 10 2014 5,084,689Kolar 11 2014 4,472,948Kolar 12 2014 4,836,241

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionKunigal 1 2015 1,135,284Kunigal 2 2015 1,245,184Kunigal 3 2015 1,355,424Kunigal 4 2014 1,021,819Kunigal 5 2014 1,065,230Kunigal 6 2014 989,693Kunigal 7 2014 1,564,435Kunigal 8 2014 1,180,024Kunigal 9 2014 2,001,969Kunigal 10 2014 1,564,435Kunigal 11 2014 1,564,435Kunigal 12 2014 1,303,481

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionShidlagatta 1 2015 1,693,661Shidlagatta 2 2015 1,599,561Shidlagatta 3 2015 1,986,420Shidlagatta 4 2014 1,396,884Shidlagatta 5 2014 1,617,927Shidlagatta 6 2014 1,734,100Shidlagatta 7 2014 1,617,927Shidlagatta 8 2014 1,683,129Shidlagatta 9 2014 1,332,662Shidlagatta 10 2014 1,617,927Shidlagatta 11 2014 1,617,927Shidlagatta 12 2014 1,516,999

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionShira Town 1 2015 1,342,450Shira Town 2 2015 1,309,445Shira Town 3 2015 1,617,670Shira Town 4 2014 1,883,265Shira Town 5 2014 1,485,437Shira Town 6 2014 1,399,511


Shira Town 7 2014 1,829,931Shira Town 8 2014 1,624,074Shira Town 9 2014 1,445,179Shira Town 10 2014 1,383,105Shira Town 11 2014 1,336,136Shira Town 12 2014 1,357,774

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionTiptur 1 2015 2,512,630Tiptur 2 2015 2,223,231Tiptur 3 2015 2,589,596Tiptur 4 2014 2,103,814Tiptur 5 2014 2,235,773Tiptur 6 2014 2,123,422Tiptur 7 2014 2,276,484Tiptur 8 2014 2,587,654Tiptur 9 2014 2,944,024Tiptur 10 2014 2,417,443Tiptur 11 2014 2,360,118Tiptur 12 2014 2,672,153

Town Name Month Year Metered ConsumptionTumkur 1 2015 22,111,793Tumkur 2 2015 21,330,688Tumkur 3 2015 26,780,097Tumkur 4 2014 22,379,726Tumkur 5 2014 22,303,343Tumkur 6 2014 18,965,760Tumkur 7 2014 22,303,343Tumkur 8 2014 22,303,343Tumkur 9 2014 22,303,343Tumkur 10 2014 20,360,375Tumkur 11 2014 19,665,432Tumkur 12 2014 22,627,834

For 6 towns, i.e., Anekal, Chintamani, K.G.F, Kanakapura, Mulibagalu and

Ramanagara 12 month’s consumption details was not made available.

Data obtained from the billing software is sanitized for some of the towns shown in

the table, the monthly consumption of certain towns (Bangarpete, Chikkaballapura,


Harapanahalli, Kolar, Kunigal, Shidlaghatta, Tiptur and Tumkur) were not in

commensurate with the other months. Hence the consumption of such months were

deleted and the average of the remaining consumption was considered in its place.

The month wise town wise consumption (MU) details are shown in the table below:

For FY-15, the consumption of these 13 towns and Bangalore city contributes 56%

of BESCOM’s total consumption. Due to data migration between R-APDRP towns and

other Non – R-APDRP town’s data for some of the towns are not available for the

whole year. Only one year data is made available, hence the future estimation for

these towns and cities are not projected. However, the estimation for Bangalore city

has been projected.

ParticularsJan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Total

Bangarpete 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.9 1.1 2.1 2.1 25.2Chickaballapura 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 3.5 2.7 33.0Chitradurga 4.4 4.2 5.1 5.7 6.5 4.5 5.8 5.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 58.6Davangere 15.6 16.7 17.9 16.9 17.8 16.6 15.4 15.0 15.8 15.7 15.1 16.0 194.4Harappanahalli 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 10.8Harihara 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 40.9Hosakote 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 32.3Kolar 4.9 4.7 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.8 59.6Kunigal 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.3 16.0Shidlagatta 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 19.4Shira Town 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 18.0Tiptur 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.7 29.0Tumkur 22.1 21.3 26.8 22.4 22.3 19.0 22.3 22.3 22.3 20.4 19.7 22.6 263.4Bangalore 1014 1002 950.2 1257 1146 1155 1107 1038 1043 1071 1081 901.2 12770Total town/cities 1079 1067 1025 1325 1217 1219 1176 1104 1110 1134 1143 967.6 13570BESCOM 2068 2031 2105 2258 2056 2046 1955 2051 1875 1863 1934 1834 24083% of city consumption 52% 53% 49% 59% 59% 60% 60% 54% 59% 61% 59% 53% 56%

The one year consumption pattern of Towns, District headquarters and Bangalore

city are plotted in different graphs as shown below:


Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-140.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Towns/Cities

Bangarpete Harappanahalli Harihara HosakoteKunigal Shidlagatta Shira Town Tiptur

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-140.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.0

District Headquarters

Chickaballapura Chitradurga Davangere Kolar Tumkur

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14800.0

900.0

1000.0

1100.0

1200.0

1300.0

Bangalore city

Bangalore

The estimation of Bangalore city from FY17 to FY21 are shown in the table below:

Category FY-2017 FY-2018 FY-2019 FY-2020 FY-2021BJ &KJ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Domestic 5060.9 5389.0 5738.7 6111.4 6508.7Commercial 1463.4 1546.5 1635.0 1729.3 1829.8

Agri 83.1 85.4 87.9 90.7 93.8


Industrial 807.5 836.4 867.1 899.7 934.4Water Supply 117.1 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.0

Street light 295.2 304.3 313.9 323.9 334.4Temporary 191.6 220.0 253.0 291.3 336.0

Water Supply 377.6 412.1 450.1 492.0 538.1Industrial 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8 2234.8

Comml 2668.7 2743.6 2822.6 2905.9 2993.7Hosp/Edu 183.7 200.5 218.9 239.0 260.9

Lift Irri. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Residential 172.7 219.1 283.1 371.8 494.4Temporary 69.7 84.8 103.1 125.6 152.8

Total 13725.9 14393.7 15125.7 15933.0 16829.7

The below chart depicts the tariff composition of Bangalore city

LT-Domestic39%

LT-Commercial11%

Agri1%LT-Industrial

6%Water Supply

1%Street light

2%

Temporary2%

HT-Water Supply

3%

HT-Industrial13%

HT-Comml18%

Hosp/Edu2%

HT-Residential3%

Temporary1%

Tariff composition - Bangalore City

Scenario 5: Energy Forecast based on Compounded Annual Growth Rate

(CAGR).


Earlier, while filing the Annual Revenue Requirement (ARR) for the 3rd control period

i.e., on 10.12.2012, taking FY-13 as the base year projections were made up to 2020.

The projected figures was based on 4 years Compounded Annual Growth Rate (4 years

CAGR) of different categories which ultimately worked out to overall 9.66%. The

earlier projections are shown in the table below:

Consumer Category FY-134

years CAGR

FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20

LT-1 123.94 3.41% 128.17 132.54 137.06 141.74 146.58 151.58 156.75

LT-2(a) 4976.84 9.69% 5459.04 5987.95 6568.11 7204.48 7902.51 8668.17 9508.01

LT-2(b) 36.32 9.69% 39.84 43.71 47.94 52.59 57.69 63.28 69.41

LT-3 1505.36 13.59% 1709.99 1942.43 2206.47 2506.40 2847.10 3234.12 3673.74

LT-4(a) 6012.17 5.39% 6336.18 6677.65 7037.53 7416.80 7816.51 8237.76 8681.71

LT-4( c ) 4.60 26.93% 5.84 7.41 9.40 11.93 15.14 19.22 24.40

LT-4(d) 4.56 21.90% 5.55 6.77 8.25 10.06 12.26 14.94 18.22

LT-5 1114.74 2.34% 1140.84 1167.55 1194.88 1222.86 1251.49 1280.79 1310.77

LT-6WS 450.40 9.43% 492.87 539.35 590.21 645.86 706.77 773.41 846.34

LT-6SL 409.61 6.11% 434.63 461.17 489.33 519.22 550.93 584.57 620.28

LT-7 139.48 8.76% 151.70 164.98 179.43 195.15 212.25 230.84 251.06

HT-1 511.67 2.98% 526.94 542.66 558.86 575.53 592.70 610.39 628.61

HT-2(a) 5038.40 13.37% 5711.88 6475.37 7340.93 8322.17 9434.58 10695.69 12125.36

HT-2(b) 3046.46 12.06% 3413.97 3825.81 4287.34 4804.54 5384.13 6033.64 6761.51

HT-3(a) 5.09 18.39% 6.02 7.13 8.44 9.99 11.83 14.00 16.57

HT-3(b) 0.16 0.00% 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

HT-4 123.38 8.01% 133.26 143.93 155.45 167.90 181.34 195.86 211.54

Total Sales 23503.18 9.66% 25696.87 28126.57 30819.80 33807.38 37123.96 40808.42 44904.43

% Growth 9.3% 9.5% 9.6% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 10.0%

Distribution Loss 14.00 13.80 13.60 13.40 13.20 13.00 12.80 12.60Energy Input @ IF point 27329.28 29810.75 32553.91 35588.68 38948.60 42671.22 46798.64 51378.07Transmission Loss 3.96 3.94 3.92 3.90 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82Energy Input @ Gen point 28456.14 31033.47 33882.08 37032.97 40520.81 44384.46 48667.47 53418.66MW requirement 3248.42 3542.63 3867.82 4227.51 4625.66 5066.72 5555.65 6098.02Peak MW requirement 4060.52 4428.29 4834.77 5284.38 5782.08 6333.40 6944.56 7622.53

The actuals for FY-14 and FY-15 are available. The tariff wise sales up to FY-15 are

as follows.


Tariff category

FY-04 FY-05 FY-06 FY-07 FY-08 FY-09 FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 (Prov.)

LT-1 100 86 78 82 97 116 112 111 116 126 124 135LT-2(a) 2135 2383 2634 2975 3279 3568 3470 4182 4517 4925 5210 5632LT-2(b) 7 14 18 22 25 26 27 29 41 34 36 37LT-3 479 562 659 771 879 953 1026 1192 1333 1473 1537 1649LT-4(a) 3536 3531 2885 3977 3607 4074 4302 4471 5353 5726 5238 5868LT-4( b ) 1 1 1 1 3 5 5 7 7 6 5 5LT-4(c) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4LT-5 853 870 905 938 957 910 913 987 1044 1124 1109 1129LT-6a(i)WS 207 223 239 254 284 340 353 407 460 464 467 436LT-6a(ii)SL 213 221 350 350 258 271 303 357 401 405 394 390LT-7 41 50 68 91 108 106 92 93 127 140 148 183LT Total 7573 7942 7838 9463 9500 10370 10606 11839 13403 14427 14272 15468HT-1 399 428 450 471 458 462 489 482 491 523 613 656HT-2(a) 1565 1816 2210 2653 3058 3297 3495 3908 4363 4785 5069 4615HT-2(b) 561 770 1047 1444 1810 2076 2182 2387 2647 2909 2856 2738HT-2© 90 184HT-3(a) 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 6 11 9 36HT3 (b) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0HT-4 62 70 75 91 89 89 93 106 118 120 110 126HT-5 20 47 260HT TOTAL 2589 3084 3782 4660 5415 5925 6261 6885 7626 8369 8793 8615TOTAL 10162 11026 11620 14123 14916 16295 16867 18724 21030 22796 23065 24083Inter ESCOM Sales 4 18 11 GRAND TOTAL 10162 11026 11620 14126 14934 16295 16867 18735 21030 22796 23065 24083

Considering FY-15 as the base year, CAGR calculations are as under:

Tariff category

CAGR 10yrs

CAGR 9yrs

CAGR 8yrs

CAGR 7yrs

CAGR 6yrs

CAGR 5yrs

CAGR 4yrs

CAGR 3yrs

CAGR 2yrs

CAGR 1yr

One year growth

LT-1 -0.2% 0.8% 0.3% -2.1% -5.2% -5.6% 12.2% 15.1% 16.4% 35.4% 9.4%LT-2(a) 9.1% 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.1% 10.4% 7.6% 7.5% 6.7% 13.9% 8.1%LT-2(b) 10.4% 8.2% 6.8% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 6.6% -3.6% 3.6% 7.4% 1.9%LT-3 11.4% 10.7% 10.0% 9.4% 9.6% 9.9% 8.5% 7.3% 5.8% 11.9% 7.3%LT-4(a) 5.2% 8.2% 5.0% 7.2% 6.3% 6.4% 7.0% 3.1% 1.2% 2.5% 12.0%

LT-4( b ) 20.1% 22.4% 18.4% 6.2% 2.2% 2.0% -5.9% -7.0% -4.6% -9.0% 8.4%LT-4(c) 14.0% 14.0% 13.7% 8.2% 11.7% 6.6% 4.8% -0.8% -7.3% -14.1% 6.6%LT-5 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 3.7% 4.4% 3.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.5% 1.8%LT-6a(i)WS 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.3% 4.2% 4.3% 1.7% -1.8% -3.1% -6.1% -6.7%LT-6a(ii)SL 5.8% 1.2% 1.4% 6.1% 6.3% 5.2% 2.3% -0.9% -1.8% -3.6% -1.0%LT-7 13.9% 11.7% 9.1% 7.9% 9.4% 14.7% 18.3% 13.0% 14.3% 30.6% 23.6%LT Total 6.9% 7.8% 6.3% 7.2% 6.9% 7.8% 6.9% 4.9% 3.5% 7.2% 8.4%HT-1 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 5.3% 6.0% 6.1% 8.0% 10.1% 12.0% 25.4% 7.0%HT-2(a) 9.8% 8.5% 7.2% 6.1% 5.8% 5.7% 4.2% 1.9% -1.8% -3.5% -9.0%HT-2(b) 13.5% 11.3% 8.3% 6.1% 4.7% 4.6% 3.5% 1.1% -3.0% -5.9% -4.1%HT-2© 105.2%HT-3(a) 42.8% 53.3% 71.0% 83.2% 84.9% 91.4% 115.7% 81.1% 77.0% 213.4% 294.9%HT3 (b) 8.2% 0.7% 8.9% -0.4% -17.4% 9.8% -14.3% 2.0% 4.1% 87.6%HT-4 6.1% 5.9% 4.2% 5.2% 6.1% 6.2% 4.5% 2.2% 2.5% 5.0% 15.0%HT-5 258.8% 453.6%HT TOTAL 10.8% 9.6% 8.0% 6.9% 6.4% 6.6% 5.8% 4.1% 1.5% 2.9% -2.0%TOTAL 8.1% 8.4% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 7.4% 6.5% 4.6% 2.8% 5.6% 4.4%GRAND 8.1% 8.4% 6.9% 7.1% 6.7% 7.4% 6.5% 4.6% 2.8% 5.6% 4.4%


TOTAL

By comparing the projected figures of FY-14 and FY-15 during 10.12.2012 and the

actuals of FY-14 and FY-15, the results are most discouraging. Average growth

projected was 9.66% whereas achieved is only 5.15%. ie., only 53% of the

projections are achieved.

From the above table it is evident that the growth rate is declining for the recent

years. Declining trend are seen in the sales of HT- industrial, HT- Commercial, LT-

street lights and LT- industries. In the recent years, due to change in law for the

captive generation, group captive generation is in vogue. Beside this, Hon’ble

Commission has exempted wheeling charges for the Non –Conventional Energy

(NCE) generators, which pave the way for NCE generators to tap the high end

consumers of BESCOM.

Revised energy projections in MU from FY17 to FY21

Tariff category FY-15(Prov.)

CAGR 4yrs

Correction factor

FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21

LT-1 84 12.2% 0% 84 84 84 84 84 84LT-2(a) 5683 7.6% 7.6% 6114.8 6579.5 7079.4 7617.4 8196.2 8819.0LT-2(b) 37 6.6% 6.6% 39.4 42.0 44.8 47.7 50.9 54.2LT-3 1649 8.5% 8.5% 1788.3 1939.6 2103.7 2281.7 2474.7 2684.1LT-4(a) 5868 7.0% 7.0% 6280.8 6722.5 7195.2 7701.1 8242.7 8822.3LT-4(b) 5 -5.9% 0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3LT-4( c ) 4 4.8% 4.8% 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1LT-5 1129 3.4% 3.4% 1168.0 1207.9 1249.3 1292.0 1336.2 1381.9LT-6a(i)WR 436 1.7% 1.7% 443.2 450.8 458.5 466.4 474.4 482.6LT-6a(ii)SL 390 2.3% 2.3% 399.2 408.2 417.5 427.0 436.6 446.6LT-7 183 18.3% 18.3% 216.1 255.5 302.2 357.5 422.8 500.1LT Total 15468 6.9% 16543.1 17699.6 18944.4 20284.8 21728.8 23285.2HT-1 656 8.0% 8.0% 708.4 765.1 826.3 892.3 963.6 1040.7HT-2(a) 4615 4.2% 1.9% 4702.1 4790.8 4881.2 4973.3 5067.1 5162.7HT-2(b) 2738 3.5% 1.1% 2768.5 2799.8 2831.3 2863.3 2895.6 2928.3HT-2© 184 1.1% 186.1 188.2 190.3 192.5 194.7 196.9HT-3(a) 36 115.7% 0.0% 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0HT3 (b) 0 9.8% 9.8% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3HT-4 126 4.5% 4.5% 131.9 137.8 143.9 150.4 157.1 164.1HT-5 260 0.0% 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6 259.6HT TOTAL 8615 5.8% 5.8% 8792.9 8977.5 9169.0 9367.7 9574.0 9788.6TOTAL 24083 6.5% 25336.0 26677.1 28113.4 29652.4 31302.8 33073.8Distribution loss in % 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4


Energy requirement at IF point

29256 30734 32314 34005 35816 37755

Transmission loss in % 3.90 3.88 3.86 3.84 3.82 3.8Energy requirement at Generation point

30444 31975 33612 35363 37238 39247

Avg. Day wise consumption in Mu

83 88 92 97 102 108

Avg. day wise demand in MW 3475 3650 3837 4037 4251 4480Peak demand requirement 4696 4933 5185 5455 5744 6054

Following points are considered for modification of Energy Forecast based on

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

1. Actual category wise sales of FY-14 and FY-15 are considered for projections.

2. In respect of BJ/KJ, no new scheme by GoK hence the consumption of FY15 is

retained.

3. Agriculture projections are based on specific consumption. Commission had

approved 7795 units/IP/annum for FY16. But, BESCOM has projected

agriculture consumption at 7% (4 year CAGR) considering increase in

number of IP installations.

4. For HT industrial and commercial consumers 3 year CAGR is considered for

projections as decline in growth of these consumers in the recent years.

5. In case of LT4b and HT3a the 4 year CAGR is showing negative and abnormal

growth for the respective categories. The consumption under these two

categories is meagre. Hence, no growth rate is considered.

6. HT-2c and HT5 categories are newly created. For HT2c, HT2b growth rate of

1.1% is considered (as it was billed under this category earlier). For HT5

category no growth rate is considered as it was part of LT7 category earlier.


Summary of projections made earlier ie., 10.12.2012 under different

scenarios:

Methodology Projected 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Per Capita Consumption

Energy input in MU 25658 28585 31857 35516 39610 43156 47036 51283 55911 11.41 11.45 11.49 11.53 8.95 8.99 9.03 9.02

Avg. MW projected 2929 3263 3637 4054 4522 4926 5369 5854 6383Peak MW projected 3661 4079 4546 5068 5652 6158 6712 7318 7978

EPS Projections

Energy input in MU 26686 29070 31559 33980 36549 39411 42584 46014 8.93 8.56 7.67 7.56 7.83 8.05 8.05

Avg. MW projected 0 3046 3319 3603 3879 4172 4499 4861 5253Peak MW projected 0 3808 4148 4503 4849 5215 5624 6077 6566

Circle wise sales

projections

Energy input in MU 25658 27415 29537 31888 34494 37385 40595 44163 48074 7.74 7.96 8.17 8.38 8.59 8.79 8.86

Avg. MW projected 3130 3372 3640 3938 4268 4634 5041 5488Peak MW projected 3912 4215 4550 4922 5335 5793 6302 6860

CAGR Projections

Energy input in MU 25658 28456 31033 33882 37033 40521 44384 48768 53640 9.06 9.18 9.30 9.42 9.53 9.88 9.99

Avg. MW projected 3248 3543 3868 4228 4626 5067 5567 6123Peak MW projected 4061 4428 4835 5284 5782 6333 6959 7654

Modified projections under different scenarios.

Methodology Projected 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Per Capita Consumption

Energy input in MU 35039 37519 40155 42957 45952Growth % 7.08% 7.03% 6.98% 6.97%

Avg. MW projected 4000 4283 4584 4890 5231Peak MW projected 5263 5636 6032 6435 6883

EPS Projections



Circle wise sales projections



C-STEP Projections



Area Load dispatch center based Projections



CAGR Projections




Graphical representation of the revised Peak load projections under different

scenarios are shown below:

2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Projections under different scenarios

Per Capita Projection EPS Projections Circle wise projectionsC-STEP Projections ALDC based Projections CAGR Projections

Inference:

Per capita consumption:

BESCOM had proposed a cent percent increase in per capita consumption

from 1110 units (FY11) to 2221 units (FY20) at 7.4% yearly growth rate in

its earlier filing, which was more ambitious target. Based on actuals it can be

realized that the actual average growth from FY12 to FY15 is 4.72%. Since,

per capita consumption is based on population projection based on per

capita consumption is a more unworkable forecast. Such projections based

may be used to plan for investment in infrastructure.

EPS Projections:

The Commission has directed the Licensee to follow the CEA guidelines in

forecasting the energy projections. The 18th EPS figures are considered for

projections. The targeted energy projection has not been achieved due to


the occurrence of unpredictable events. BESCOM had considered 46.14% of

State energy for projections. But as per actuals BESCOM has consumed

42.41% of State energy. Based on actuals, BESCOM has reduced its

projections by 8% from its earlier filing.

Circle wise Projection:

The total circle wise projection figures are done on similar lines of CAGR

projected figures. BESCOM had projected 7.97% average growth rate in its

earlier filing. But as per actuals the average growth rate has been reduced to

5.5%. The latter average growth is considered for forecasting. This exercise

gave an indication about the sales growth attributable to certain categories

of consumers at the circle level. It is noticed that 4 circles of BMAZ i.e south,

north, east and west have a major portion of domestic and HT industries

and commercial consumption. Bangalore Rural and Ramanagara circles HT

industries and IP is more than 50% in comparison to other categories. The

percentage of agricultural consumption in rest of rural circles is more than

the other categories. Since the agricultural consumption is assessed, the

consumption / sales under this category is debatable. The percentage of

consumption under unmetered categories is more in rural circles. Hence,

projections made on the basis of circle wise consumption may lead to

increase in estimation of unmetered sales, which may not be realistic.

Karnataka Road Map 2021-22 by M/s CSTEP:

CSTEP projections are also considered for projecting BESCOM’s energy. M/s

CSTEP had also prepared the report based on 4 years CAGR. The

projections are for the whole State. For BESCOM’s energy projections, 48%

of the projected State energy is considered. Since, the energy projections are

prepared based on 18th EPS, the energy worked out seems to be more

optimistic. Hence, this methodology is not adopted by BESCOM.


Projections based on ALDC:

For the first time BESCOM has made projections based on the details

available at ALDC. This energy at generation point includes BESCOM

consumption as well as wheeling, banking, station auxiliary and open

access consumption. Hence, the energy projected and the growth rate are

more in this method of projection. In other words, the system or

BESCOM’s grid is presently capable of handling this amount of energy.

This projection gives the road map for developing BESCOM’s distribution

network. Since, the energy projected consists of wheeling, banking,

station auxiliary and open access consumption this methodology cannot

be made use of as the revenue demand in this kind of projections will be

on the higher side.

CAGR projections:

Average growth projected under this methodology was 9.66% whereas

achieved is only 5.15%. i.e., only 53% of the projections are achieved. It is

also evident that the growth rate is declining for the recent years.

Declining trend are seen in the sales of HT- industrial, HT- Commercial,

LT- street lights and LT- industries. In the recent years, due to change in

law for the captive generation, group captive generation is in vogue.

Beside this, Hon’ble Commission has exempted wheeling charges for the

Non–Conventional Energy (NCE) generators, which pave the way for NCE

generators to tap the high end consumers of BESCOM. The corrected

CAGR percentages are considered for the present projections. From the

past data it can be seen that the CAGR projections and actual sales values

recorded are nearer to the projections.


In view of the above the CAGR method has been reckoned for the

purpose of sales forecast for the 4th control period for FY-17 to FY-19.

Limitations:

1. New regulations initiated by the regulators have changed the consumption

pattern of high end consumers.

2. Planning for power system is essentially a projection of how the system

grows over a specific period of time. Any plan can become technically and

economically obsolete when new inventions in electrical utilization

equipment’s are taken up.

3. Unforeseen industrial, commercial or residential projects can change the

load forecast.

4. Breakthroughs in new generation and transmission technologies and un

expected inflation in equipment labor costs can take the plan in other

directions.

5. Reliability is one of the most important criteria which must be taken into

consideration during all phases of power system planning, design and

operation.


Capex plan:BESCOM comes under southern grid and the peak demand is growing at a higher percentage compared to the energy requirement. Besides other reasons this phenomenon can be attributed to growing urbanization, changes in life style & efficiency improvement (In terms of reduction in losses) in the distribution system. Especially in case of BESCOM the reduction in losses has led to suppressed increase in energy requirement, whereas the higher penetrations of electronics appliances have led to higher increase in the peak demand during the past two years.

BESCOM has identified the following key areas for the need based investments.

AT&C losses reduction :- Metering: Re-conductoring of lines (HT and LT) Evacuation of New Line/link Line for Urban / Rural Area:- Improvement in quality of supply: Other normal schemes IT interventions

Capital Works envisaged from 2016-17 to 2020-21:-

BESCOM has prepared a perspective plan for capital investments totaling to Rs.4650 Crores for the period from 2016-17 to 2020-21. Year on year, scheme wise based on the previous data.


Details are called from the field staff. Data is yet to receive from the field.Commission framed the guidelines for preparation of Capital Investment plan for the future years. It is very difficult to predict technology upgradation, innovations, statutory adherence, system compulsion etc., Due to these changes the Investment plan will be affected. Any deviations to the above plan will be submitted to the Commission in due courseDetails of Capex plan is as under.

Sl No.Particular of the works

under Major/ Minor heads

FY -17 FY -18 FY -19 FY -20 FY -21

1 11 KV Evacuation & Link Lines (14.172 /14.143) 68.32 72.05 78.06 93.8 86.51

2Safety and Strengthening of HT/LT network including OH/UG cable and AB cable works (14.146)

34.37 38.33 43.15 53.22 47.72

3 HT Reconductoring (14.147) 27.95 29.6 30.87 35.7 33.63

4 LT Reconductoring (14.145) 30.77 29.63 26.71 27.29 25.08

5Providing Additional DTC's/Enhancement of DTC's

50.49 48.83 44.8 46.91 42.98

6Planned works (RE / SCP / TSP/Drinking Water Supply/Gangakalyana and service connection)

52.27 47.21 45.48 44.31 40.33

7 Local Planning 37.2 36.01 34.91 38.27 34.258 RMU Works 3.89 4.232 3.827 4.136 3.931

9Safety Measures/ Hazardous (shifting DTC at school premises) (14.148)

12.2 12.74 11.76 12.43 11.35

10 OH to UG Conversion 2.19 2.10 1.98 1.98 1.8411 Infrastructure to

Unauthorized IP sets 19.95 5.19 3.27 3.86 3.29


12 Providing & replacement of RMUs 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.56 0.52

13

Replacement of Electromechanical Meters by Static Meters / MNR Meters/Providing modems to DTCs, HT & Boundary meters in RAPDRP area, Smart meters, replacement of HTMC of HT installation

34.65 23.77 8.75 6 6

14 DTC Metering programme 2.25 2 1.75 1.5 1.515 IPDS 357 100 100 100 10016 DDUGJY 330 100 100 100 10017 HVDS 100 100 100 100 10018 NJY Phase-3 250 250 - - -19 DSM 64.51 64.97 77.3 72.9 58.69

Total 1529 967.3 713.2 742.9 697.6

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