viiajqxh - national bureau of economic research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rit rrrit...

48
ais12 siaqq OMIXSIOW 51flT4 TMIA51TT4OD D4IDMAMH OG I TM3MTVMI YHW VIIAJqXH cWOJ1 HEAD HTIW OHTAJE$LSIOD ru3Iq){ .4 nvi 1irii iiuJ iq131 rtbhoW HD51AR3$1 DIMOT4ODEI O UAI$1TJ JAT4OITAT4 un3vA aflaud3sM OOI 8FIO AM bhdmjD .QQ! 13dmiq2 moil ain3mfnoD . nti2i2 dnai in11x b3bivolq w&I i1oiV bn rniinbhfl nimijtH jm$dduH nn1O .51 oiO bivU i,nnO fldo$1 ,3nlrut3oD fufol ,thirrio1iD h&iD urifl nvo14 ii1iW aM tIw3 jnornaj n3wO qdai)I linA rnoiimIoH ncbhrIe nw smA ni ',m313t 1IiIfi i3lbnA 1ni 1wt biviU ,najs5l mirun!M th ,11oD noioa i 2inqi3inoq inirn .liñq1r1 iv w rn1aiV tidoM bitE n&nliT cfj ,juji3nI mmij 51flM r!i ,TIM ,Iooth2 2nkufl bvirH biiofl ri$1 thib&1 !EbnEnh1 iii muieoqm' WED 341 noinidW lb 3i13vinU 341 oidD 10 '1i13vinU IIñqI3d b3bivolq oth rwni briE wEJ no mui2oqm2 l3cJoM th bni 332n3I3O ni hiM i4T .inqrno 31qmf lb ii1 i nthivoiq )lnErh o1E W .jn3fnmo3 rhO di d briE W1 thu3 ni di51 ioI iin3D di d b3iioqqu nd &t r1LS331 l3qEq idT .31E12 rh bnr3 nono di 10 'bu12 cfi iol 13in3D r1i 01 iiisi iIuoirft noiisbnuol noiniqo nA .*nono3H 3lldtJ briE 3nEni1 3iioqIoD ni micioiq ii i,,i $138T4 10 ttaq i .rIiz51 3imono3 lb uiiua lEnohiEM rft lb 320113 ion bni 2iothuE 3(13 lb o41 is b32231qx3 ion ix3i lb anoi rzocl2 .b3vz31 2i4h hA .htniS iiuJ bnB nEIqEX .V1 n3v31 'd QQI © 3ib513 Iliñ ndi b3bivolq noi22iffrt3q 1i3!Iqx3 iuothiiw b3ioup 3d '(B 2dqEiE1Bq owl b3x3 01 .wo2 di ol n3vi i ,31on © rIibuI3ni

Upload: others

Post on 02-Jun-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

ais12 siaqq OMIXSIOW 51flT4

TMIA51TT4OD D4IDMAMH OG I TM3MTVMI YHW VIIAJqXH cWOJ1 HEAD HTIW OHTAJE$LSIOD

ru3Iq){ .4 nvi 1irii iiuJ

iq131 rtbhoW

HD51AR3$1 DIMOT4ODEI O UAI$1TJ JAT4OITAT4 un3vA aflaud3sM OOI

8FIO AM bhdmjD .QQ! 13dmiq2

moil ain3mfnoD .

nti2i2 dnai in11x b3bivolq w&I i1oiV bn rniinbhfl nimijtH jm$dduH nn1O .51 oiO bivU i,nnO fldo$1 ,3nlrut3oD fufol ,thirrio1iD h&iD urifl nvo14 ii1iW aM tIw3 jnornaj n3wO qdai)I linA rnoiimIoH

ncbhrIe nw smA ni ',m313t 1IiIfi i3lbnA 1ni 1wt biviU ,najs5l mirun!M th ,11oD noioa i 2inqi3inoq inirn .liñq1r1 iv w rn1aiV tidoM bitE n&nliT cfj ,juji3nI mmij 51flM r!i ,TIM ,Iooth2 2nkufl bvirH biiofl ri$1 thib&1

!EbnEnh1 iii muieoqm' WED 341 noinidW lb 3i13vinU 341 oidD 10 '1i13vinU IIñqI3d b3bivolq oth rwni briE wEJ no mui2oqm2 l3cJoM th bni 332n3I3O ni hiM

i4T .inqrno 31qmf lb ii1 i nthivoiq )lnErh o1E W .jn3fnmo3 rhO di d briE W1 thu3 ni di51 ioI iin3D di d b3iioqqu nd &t r1LS331

l3qEq idT .31E12 rh bnr3 nono di 10 'bu12 cfi iol 13in3D r1i 01 iiisi iIuoirft noiisbnuol noiniqo nA .*nono3H 3lldtJ briE 3nEni1 3iioqIoD ni micioiq ii i,,i $138T4 10 ttaq i

.rIiz51 3imono3 lb uiiua lEnohiEM rft lb 320113 ion bni 2iothuE 3(13 lb o41 is b32231qx3

ion ix3i lb anoi rzocl2 .b3vz31 2i4h hA .htniS iiuJ bnB nEIqEX .V1 n3v31 'd QQI © 3ib513 Iliñ ndi b3bivolq noi22iffrt3q 1i3!Iqx3 iuothiiw b3ioup 3d '(B 2dqEiE1Bq owl b3x3 01

.wo2 di ol n3vi i ,31on © rIibuI3ni

Page 2: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

uq L1BEI I1q WBEBCP!CO IF QOQ CP!CffO IF QOQiJJOJ E ?811 2P JJOJ E 8l1J 2P1flU!ACL2IIA 01, CP!CffO flU!ACL2JIA 0j CP!°QLffflffJQ 2CPOOJ 0j Bfl21IJQ22 oLgqflff CJJ00J O Bfl21J222AU ]4 KffbIfflI T!! S111ffIC2

4qG1JCC 011 IjJQ GJCC12 O UUffIJC!ffI COU2Lff!U2

bLoqQ iquc pA obbo2u wff? pc jp uuqnJ CJJffJJGUG urncp oj tp

JUbLGq ff2 CA1UCQ IJJff ff JJLUJ 12 UJOLC j1JffiJC!ffJJA COU2ILffIUQ(f J/Q J2Cf122 1.Cff2OU2 uq

j0L 2npbuoq2e ffuq jOL rnqLMqrI9J AGffL2' JJJQ LC2f1J12 uqcffc jJff1 ff P!PCL 2U2jAUA cffuuol pc

LIUJJ2 IIJffI ffbbffL UJOLC 1JUffIJC!ffJjA cou Lffuq j/ juq W!2 buw 0L giQ CUIILG 2ffuJbJ bc4oq

1Q22 UUffIJCWJJA COU2P1U1 QXP!P!1 ff 2!IJtUCff1UjA LCff1QL !UAC2WJQIU-Cff2p UOM 2CU21P1¼!A 111911

10 ffCCQ22 TIUQUJffJ 01. QX1CUJffJ nuq2 10 TUCLGff2G JUAQ2WJGUV 21LT1CJUJA JJ02C Q1.UJ2 lJJffl ffbbCffL

c juq flJ9i lu oujA j o LIuIJ-Ac91.2 i JGLG 20u1Q dczc2[ou ff2 10 ff L1UJJ2 ffP!JTA

Lffu nppq ffuq (jgg) ff2 pffAU 911 flUfl2f1JJA J!P !u u1-cff2p uo1

IuAQ2LUJQIU pA flUQUffJUU u u-qcbqi ffuffjA22 oj, qic joM-qyqqcuq 1j1.uJ2 qcujcq pA

.LP!2 bffbQL !1JAQ2tflQ2 IJJC 2OflLCQ2 O W COLLCJffOU PCUAGQU COLbOLffIG Cff2}1 UOPA ffuq

VBLIVC1

COBBEFVLED JALLH CV2H EFOIMEXbFVI]4 lANA 114AE2LNEI4.L 12DO E114V14C1140 COM21KVI1tL2

2QbQUJPCL Ià2IABEI� lAOL1CJU bffIL QX

Page 3: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

srk\ nuo ii trio

ri ri ori uk crio üi o%th u cict t% 'HO flS I* .KO iriO T\ no iritrio %O% WUO ?tB Tol OLTktO ri %TTO TTYI %VlTOriO .oc5k ounri %Q'

n,,v,rid noirsIi rIi ,ibu JErü iujsi,iI 3imonoo1asm boB BwiBnfI TBI B 21 irIT

.21niBI2flO3 Iai3nBniflO nBfloqmi boa n,aiq ,íü ioI i2a ol wofl r1aa boa xnrrni,ni ,laioqioa

boa btadduH ,haaI d jn,mj2vnI Jsioq1oD boa niai1anoD 3r1I3nantI riliw gninnigfl

iloilq a ria o nib1o33a ermiI b Iqma2 a abivib aibu12 arii IH1 rIflobnarI (88Q I) fl,2I,jaq

3r1913Thb 3rtI b i1iviii2n wofl da-Uiamieavoi rIt iaqmo boa BjnialiaflO3 lai3rlsniYbo iiaam

oi I,liI ,iom amifl rli ioI iYiii2na wofl da-1n3mivni 1a ato nibnib 311T '.ilqmadu2

boa Iam,lni (j nwi,d guiI abo aonabiv ea b,,iqirii Ila3iq1 21 b3oiall2no3 d oi biudima 1Ia13ng 21 rI3iilw abw alibi ioth sIi o oib1o33A .abnuI 1o 12o3 lam,ix

A3s1 Isdi annit d inamieavniiabnu o 2b531 ,zbham Ialiqs3 1arnix, flu am3ldoiq noiamiomni

anbiw bw aidi arIi (QQI .Is b namfl bum vai1 oala aiodluz mo about Ismini

ab aa,niaucJ oilad1a3sx boa mIdoq tnamiaavnhbnu ninaiow anoiaai niiub

boa aiaimooo3bo wiy di baqada asd noilslaiqIalni bIsIai d1 boa aoibrn1 adT .ein3mavom

vjiai,nombo ai3113 rli no aa Ibw as aiAiam Isiiqs Iam,x,1o flifT0iX3flLft auli rio eiIam (3iIoq

.iIoq 163211 bna

anoilqmuaaa Isin,mabniñ ad) ,aiwaiaail aidilo a3nav3b1-3iIoq boa asia an) aftqaaG

annit sdi bnuot aanl ¶-U1 01 rnaupaadua how aliriW .baiolqxanu 'bgiaI naad aVail i oihabou

3ivi1i2oB2 ia1aai s )ididxa noiiaiiia iloilq a na 0) oib,oaa baniaIiano3 IIai3nanfl ad o baililnabi

iadin1 S larftadW 'Ii3a1ib baitiia, asul (aiaws am aw ubiniwlo) iaqaq on ,woII 11283 01 Xnamlaavni to

.sw snfw ni ai ii Ii boa amaldoiq niananul 01 baisbi ai '1iviii2nTaa wofl niaaa-Jniamiaavni

d tivi1ianaa wofl nlaaa-)namiaawii art) to saiuoa ad) 2B1ai123YflI iaqsq idT

lb iivi)ianaa did (lIauauou na ni1ididxa auniflo alqmaa sb aiaIaoa diqab-ni os nb1aiiabnu

boa aiiimolaD (Q1) bartdW (1QQ1) nialahaub2 boa qadasA iutaoH aaa aIqmaxa ioI .(oimo3dflol) biadduH

Page 4: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

'ti1nbi (88Q1) qi-FI Isdi miiI bnbivib wol Q1 di is rrrit ,rIT .wofl rks ol 1nm1vni

.noil3th3 wofi dasz,-1nmivni rf1 ol nib1o33s bniaU2no3 IIsi3nnfi

3111 3ninn31b 01 n w 3iuo sisb b31oIqxnu lwoiviq bna bIis1b niu 8 armiI rb 31111U5X3 ,W 2m111 3fqrnsa 3111 to rbs iol abruiI ioI bnamb d1 bits to 1iIidsIis',s

lath 'ribiupiI lo noiaaiiaib a'1n3msnsm bi w bits ,lqmsa r13s iol )l-O 1 10 ioqi Iaunns

3W .abri aorh1 1m 01 3W or zrislq Ii 23311102 di bits abntñ ioI abn 3lulIiI armfi 3111 23di1a3b

a 3l3Iqmoo as 3y113b ol awn 3iIduq illiw bits slab ilalilnaup dliw noilsrrnolni 21111 3lS13lni

r13s as II.,w as nnII tbs io1 abnLit Ismlx bus Ism3lni to liIidsIis,s 3dllo Idiaaoq as 3uil3iq

315 afmiI Iqmsa 3111 ibislw 01 1n31x3 3111 1nsi 3w aiasd aidi nO .abrnit iol bnsm3b amifl

arai-tiI 3lqmsa 3111 quoi 01 anoils3jIiaasIa m-rmfl rh1 aii 3W .is' tIos b3nisUano3 'llsi3nsnil

3Isqmoa w IIsniI .boil3q 1qmsa 3-liln3 sh ivo bns abohq-dua 1s3'-1rli3 10 fl3V32 13vO

.amirt to aquoi 1niThb d1 aaoi3s ilivillan3a wofl 1h1S3-ln5ml23vni

3111 ol as noi1aup moa 313111 21 21 3'-m1iflo o\01 Ino ni IsdI bniI 3W Inianqiu

-rrnfl'Io o\°8 ni .1n,niia,ni asiiii ol abrnit 15m31x3 10 Ini1ni 2333S or armil 3dflo '1i1ida

bsd ,rh1ui -- 'Itsilns1adua ,a3as3 nsm ui —

ln,mla,vni 113111 b3as3l3ni vsr1 bluo3 aumil 3111 2Is3'

,vsrl bIuo3 -- b1hsq-n3Iw3H nibuI3ni -- armit ,Iqmsa 3111 to o\0Ot laomls 13s1 ni .naorb oa

lo 23111253ff! 3vllaliIsup IIsitisq iuO .boil3q lqmsa d11o 153'( 't3v3 lii ln3mIa3vIli ii,di b3as13ni

la3l3lni lsriqs3 Islol or 1db no slab 3'lilsliinsup 'd brs1odorIo3 Inoi1a 315 alnisllano3 lsi3rtsnil

bns r1as to bvI rh1) )1351a IsiansniI bits abn3bivib no anoil3illa3l to 33fl3231 3111 ,3s13vo3

.Qn,mlavni or 3vi15131 1ib3131o 3n1l b,,aunu

a lididx3 b3nisltano3 (Ilsi3fTsnfi tts as b3fIiazsl3 amiil ,aodl yjniAiila ,ioM

om as b3itiaasI3 armit aorIl usd1 (1i,i1ian3a wofi 11a53-in3mia3vni 11ns3i1inia

tot bits aboi13q-dua io1 boi13q Iqmsa ,i1ns i11 iot mflsq airIl bnfi ,W .b3nialiano3 \(IIsl3rlsnfl

bus b3nisIlano3 3bivib or sil3lha 1n3Iflib 01 Iwdo, oats ai ni3lisq airlT .ais Isubivibiti

uI 10 Th3 Iqmsa '(13v3 lii 3S13VO3 1a3I3lni '(d1Is11 ulliw amill 3Iqmsx3 ioI .anrifl b3nisIiano3nu

aimfi ninism,t 3111 25 isl as 33iw1 a,ilivilian3a wofl 11a53-ln3mla3vni var1 m boiiq-dua (13V3

.Iqmsa 3(11 ui

Page 5: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

woFt -1nmTh,vni r!JtO 31UO di al 1dw1o noiiup uoivdo jj 1hii iiiO

i work 1Amm Ia1iqs t3rnix3 ni2233S ni iiIu3ifuib st Isib inBqmo3 ob dW iviin ,13d1 no rnicnano woivdo on ni1 ainqmo3 ob 'dw mii rft rA riviri2na iwoI

1bni8m1 dT 'woFl rk 01 in3mla3vni to riviJkn rIir1 t1s!u3ir1sq 1ididx Thvni ol 'iiIids

.iiivi1iana arü icit 2noiinaIqx viirn3Is 21bi2no3 iqq di lo

bnbi,ib wol HI) IqmB2 iuoto vjriv IIs,vo rfid ri1 lsr$i 3nbiv bnit W

ni13 wofl rks d bniBIqx d flE3 rrni1 Iuo'q bnbivib ir1irt U-FI ot viiI, (rrriit ruo'q

JIui IKnoir3-ao13 iuo niBlqx ron 23ob idi i,vwoH .iiinurloqqo rnrnThvni id xoiq B RB

.aiiivitizn 3dirf r11 vrI mifl bniB1Thno3 iRE! 3111 1r11

wofl dRB3-1n3mThvni 3111 'rIw iol anoiiBnBIqx3 3IdiauaIq 18i3V32 ibi2r1o3 ,n,d1 W 1nThiRno3 33n3b1v3 bnit W .2iniianoa Iai3nsnhI dliw 'II83ino1onom 3Ra313fli ion aob riviiiRn

rwoI 5111 svsd sIqnm iuo ni 2rmfl bsniBIiRno3 Thorn sill r1w 01 RB RnoilBIlBlqxs 323111 ilhiw

.asiliviriansR

-tnsmjsvni sill rlw1o nibriaiaisbnu slslqrno3 a sbtvmq Ion ob isvswod allusi sdT

wofl rka3-lnsmizsvni rlid silT .Rm1i1 bsniEllano3nu iuo io1 rIgirl o2 RI '1ivi1i2ns2 wofi (1263

01 wofl rka lamsini no tiiamiiq 'fbi or 3ni200(13 sanarn 'd nviib sd or asqqa ilivi1iins

bria 1u122333u2 'll6i3nani1 Thom silT thntil 12o3 wol lanoilibb&lo IilidaIlava sill sliqsb l2s,fIi

did £ lidhrlxs siots,sr1i bnE slui Rirli wollol ci iasqqa slqmsi iuo ni emiil bsniBllRno3 126sf

RI -- '1niB1i33 (111w lswRnB lonnB3 sw 16(11 — noliRsup sl silT .1ivi1i2ns2 wofl 11263-lnsmlRs',ni

21111 ol iswRns sifF .sns sluloRdE n ni bsniallRnosnu sia 2mli1 bsniaIlano3 12651 siodl idisrlw

.anoilalslqlslni Insismb isv or abasi noirasup

owl s',Brl aIIIJaSi mo abIod anoiisisIqislni sviramsrls sililo rbidwlo lnsbrtsqsbnl

asob 1iliiiansa wofl 11263-Insmiasvni islasi £ laill siasibni alluasi sill jaiil .anoils3ilqmi cimiq

alias aidT .s3nsnil IamsThs bna lanisini nsswlsd laos laiinsisThb isgial ao ,snsbi's sbivoiq Ion

to ssnBrioqmi sill io ssnsbivs 26 1iviliansa airll no asils, Isdi Aiow auoivsiq noilasup olni

.zIrnBilanos lBisrlsnit

ni sldsliavB siom libsis sAam 01 bsaiasb asisiloq Isdi rasgua alluasi iuo ,bno3s

Page 6: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

wofi 3-1flffh12Vfli trfid fj riliw mifl 'd 1nm1vni b13ni or bsI Ion Iliw nOi31

rnnu rI1 ,Iiqb wofl da iooq ol noqi ni Inm1avni ii,di 33ub1 rrnfl dT .'IiviItn,

.2bnIiI Im,Ix, bn IniIni1o '1iIidiIivi

E noi13 .A1owrnE1t I3iI,1o,d1 jj Iniq noiI .woIIo1 e ab3o1q iqq 3dT

IC 2Imit (13111W 01 Ifl1X3 'ui1n3bi 01 bzu nii13 ,dr 2niIqx 4 noit2 .IqmE2 3rii 23di133b

ô noi133 .aIIu,i noi,ii woft rk3-Inm1avni di 1ioqi noiI3 .b,niElizrlo3 IIi3nBnh1

di 2322u32ib V noi13 .mr11 iol noi1tniIqx 3viIm3IIs 21bi2no3 bnE ai!u1 rtI au3ib

.,bul3no3 bn nibnfi mob 2noiIs3iIqmi

ouo•k ioiV tt¼oc% cio \ .

immu) Inm1aujb&Io 3fl3Z5I fI1 ni In3miaynibo io,(11 L3i!3on rfT

bo oilzi ,iIi boa tnm3a3vni ffnll a n3,w1d qid2norIabl larmob £ 23'lh3b (8Q1 irka'aH boa 18I

9 di I1nanoqmi ioM (9 2'nidoT za oworol ifld) 1203 1n,m33aIq1 01 uIav I3ham b2aa

i,rlio nI .1n,m1,,ni bo rnaniun,j,b lno cfi d bfuouf2 9 Ianiiam unfl a raril , iIdai2 (1o3rfr

.9 laniglam iot rnIIo1ino3 iafta wofi 11283 2'mllt a or 3vi1in d Ion bIuod 1nm12vni .biow

21 1n3m12vni radi a3la3ibni rarli iu1aIiI bdaiIdsJ2-Ibw £ 21 313th b1on aA

nonmondq 21111 iob aiioi1analqx 3Idioq 311T .9 lob 1ii1Iol1flo3 13fl8 nv woft rlaaa 01 ,',ilRn,2

9 biuaam b gnimo3tIod2 31h no buaol varl rii1 .quoig owl 01 bbivib d 083

.2i1inuI1oqq0 rn3mI23vni 2'rTnht a iol 311211812 10313rn1J2 a 28 (9 3s13va bvi13Tb 21 113111w)

'd b31uIqa3 Ion 23iIirnifloqqo 1fl3111123V01 ioI xoiq 8 21 woft (1283 Iain3rni w3iv 21111 or nib1o33A

b31a13no3 d 111w In3mia3vni wofl daaa d b3133fta Iw1 Ion 21 ln3rnI23vni i1uor1rlA .9 biuaam

.111111w

ha ni'h3bnu noiiqmu22a 123no1I2 cI1 b3noi1aup 3varI rnd31a3231 nam bvilamIIA

a jl3aolqqa bnoe 21(11 or nibioaaA .2131h8m 1811q83 r3h3q1o on312ix, dr :abbom 183122813030

bo nda r11 iii boa ,vianqx bvi1idi11olq 10 Idsliavanu tdli 2bnul 8m31x3 bnfl sm mill

.1n3m12,vni 33ub31 ,2bnth Iam3lni

Page 7: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

bbid :noi 'wmiiq owl io1 tohqtrn d vm 2mlft 01 2bruñlo 'Iqq1J2 3dT

1uIM brth 21M ,. -- 2bbom noilsmioThi n3bbiH .amIdcnq \3flB bns zcu1doiq noiisrmoThi

b 1ini r1t ni X anEm IBril muas -. (Q1) 22iW bna s1iIi1 ,bIwniO bn (481)

miii luods 3w2nu 21o1yni usd abniil Ini3xIo 1203 f1ift £ 3Bl 20nh1 lud 213bIodIBd2

01 3v12nqx oot Ii bniI 1kw io Idsnu d 111w 'io3iIli 2bntñ IEni3pi I3EI IEIJI 2m11! .'li1Rup

'di 18th) Jrtmivni ,uls', ln3aiq viXioq II 18fl3bnu 03 (1Ea233n 18flq83 il1 h1Em31x ici io1irIi ,zmiil bnia1i2no3 II8i3n8nuI t13U .(l3h,q iw 215Aum 181308011 Ii 3Asi1br1u bluow

.ll3vnn3bnu

nn,L 81) flsH bus rIsma2oiD (ôQ1) nibbM bus -- 2l3bom 3n3A

n,3wbd 3i1uilo 13jun03 3r11 ,siasdqm8 — (0Q21) ,ooM bus JisH brie (OI) sIu1 8Q1)

mofi 2i113n3d 3lsvhq mb i,snsm *di muas 2I3bom dT 2ibIoli31srk bus isnsm iIu2i s aA .a1innq woft ks3 Ism,Jni nrIw iom 12vni 111w ,1o1i3d1 bris T3mIa3Yni

.\(!Ismilqo 1svrn zrmil b8uis1iuo3 hit1w 3avnhi3vo 2rmiI bnisU2no3nu

ni3nsnh1 01 13b1o nb13q s 131b3Iq iiod1 3us bns noilsrmoIni nbbid ,ril diofi

1atse 3d1 3U221 ,d1 b3Iiup1 CI 3nsrti1 Iin1x1i bus 3nsnub lsrn,lni ibiq cmiii :233i0d3

01 1n3m3cvni to iivi1iene i,r1id £ 13ibiq aob13r11 cnod1 nba .(48! e13M) leill '(1nu3e

3iom Isthi 3i1eli13gIsnI3 di isrk 01 bn1 al3bom 323(11 cmiii b,niaijcnoo Itsi3rtsflfl iot woIl (1283

Ion n1uod1ls) 'sbo1 ebudb Ismn&Io 1203 wobsdc iiiid £ 335t Isdi 320(11 ,is mii1 b3nisllcno3

.(iu1ul 3(11 01 IiI522333fl

bus io3d1 9-biucsmeim 3(11 n3w13d n1aiuni1ib 01 1qmfls 01 iqsq leill d1 asw H1

,dl io1 xoiq hoiiq s us 3W 01 csw uoilsvonni ii3dT .c3no3dl 13h8m Isiiqs3 13ti,qmi r1r

-b3iucs3mCim to ai3fl3 3111 Iuo 1102 ol ln3muileni uses b301s112003 '(hIsionsuhI ci miii s iiIidsdoiq

'1ivj1ine i,isI £ to nibni1 113(11 I3iql3lni dT .c3hsm laflqs3 l33h3qmi 10 a13fl3 ntl mon Q

ru ,n,biv es b,uislbcno3 IIsiausui1 3d 01 bhil 3lom hoiiq £ cimil nil woft (1253 01 1nm12vrti to

.uoilsnslqx3 l3hsm Isiiqs3 33h3qmi 3(11 to io',s1

bwohIo1 esil 3Iulsl3liI 1nup,cdua 3(11 (tQQ1) Is b bisd3nsI81o noiIq33x3 nh1 (111W

,nlI 3181021 01 i,bio ni cjnisljeno3 Isiansnfl iot '(xolq iioilq 8 0801 8nib1o33s cmiii uinilqe d qH

Page 8: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

owl 3d1 nw1d r2iunuib 01 lqmfls (tQ I) .

Ia 1 bmrt3naIfl .i1mm Iariq3 hqmi 1o i33u13

rka mI a bvii azt 2uniFto ,Iqma2 I1am s nI'(bu d ioft b*um Ialiq& 3,b,qmi

iirfT .9 Lsnithm ni r1ad3 'na ni3ni13qx luorbiw — biaw IaI a 'I1aa,n -- IIsIbniw

narfi lnanoqrni iom ia emIcJoq '.3nB thu atau IIiibnrw daa d11o au rIJ1o i2(1sna

.rmit oti ioI mIdoiq noilarinomni n,bbiii

-in,rn1vni ,rlt d3idw or tntx s1i no XdiI bik ot b,iujouiia i ni,b rf3aa1 iuO

.abmfl Iamlx to Iqqu2 gft oh 2noir3hqmi 01 bIniI i iivili2n woll rka

\nonk\p to\,c1 M X otk'H

ladw 3n113b ol bn w b3nlall2rio3 IIai3nanit ai miiI a irLtdw nirm3l3b or l3blo rtl

Ia,130u rarlw3mo2 i ,iu1ai,iil ni1aix 3ruJ ,btanutiobiU .2nm bniaiiano 1Iar3nanut ni,d

.d3aolqqa niwoIlo1 iti iqoba w aitana Ia3iliqrn3 wo biu oT .lnioq 21(11 luods

n1x31o 1iIidaIiava io 1203 sIt1i bnhJn1ano3 'dlai3nsnfl ni3d aa mill £ ,nil,b W

bad ,lam or naod3 ,vart bluow Ii trim1avni ni niAam mo1 naqmo3 di a3buI33lq abmil

Ianitx3 boa Iarnrni rb nvfld bw a 21 ii1i biow l3tho ni .IdaIiava nd abmit Iam3lni

rI1 oh 2,3n,1,Thb 3viraIi rkiuni1ehb or b3ni2b 21 mda2 noi1a3lli2al3 iuO .2bntit to 21203

21 lath 'naqmo3 a ui2aaI3 111w w ,Iqmax3 io1 b3nis112no3 IIai3nanhl is amiil rI3hdw ol ib a oath b,niaIlano3 om a 1db fli2S5I3flL boa 2bnabivib niaq molt a1bn3I all d b333i13231

aal io b3niaIlano3nu iuo ni .1db on diiw i,ai daa iaI no niflia 'rlaqmo3

.rIJ-iow bn boa ai,aaa bhupilmo alnuoma ta1 'bvitab, thiw armit oth 3ia amilt b,niaijarlo3

a 33al armil i3rll3rIw 3nimi,t,b I1ioiIqx, lonna3 mrIaa noija3fli22aI3 iuo ituothIA

22013 a3lurqa3 (lrIiafl33 3mli3a iuo 33nSfllt Iamtx baa Iamtni to rao3 rlt nwbd baiqa

aj,1iam IsrIqa3 r3311qmi mo aiiorb :dT baiqe 2idlmo butinsm 3rii oh aani1uib Isnohl32

rlaa3-ln3mia3vni i,iai iididx 111w amiit bniaiiano3 'IIai3nanhl iom th ladi '(lqmi nohlinlt,b

.2iXiviji2n2 woFi

o

Page 9: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

(88Q1) ql-H ni arrnit niaq bn,bivib-wol tlo Iqmsa di 3s(Ians w iqsq airli ni

QQ1 moiI aisb biqirri1ninu riliw aad sisb niJ 5uIaV di ru armll nnul3slunam ha bivtb qHl

w &nrlw) armit I aaaC) Qt iidT 3iIoq Wo'(sq bnbivib no basd aaasb irft orni 48QI ol

ni .a-ia naflht rü1o ni iasI is ni o\001 nsrb 2aIIo oiIsl iuo'sq bn,bivib a vsi1 (3Isns

aaalD as o\0O bna oO I nwi,d olisi luosq bnabivib a vad Isril arrnfl E 'ftiaaal3 ¶H1 ia5uinO3

us arrnil I aaslD i1i isrli ,uis ¶1-Fl .armfl aasC) as alqmaa ii,rhl iii armll wrhlo IEE ha bris armlt

aaalD ,rb lath bnfl 'rhJ aiaIsns ii,dj ni .b3nisUa003 IIai3nsnlI nd vsd ol iiohq a l1il iom

Jarhi ant-ill iol lath iusrli 1sla Iins3llinia al Mali iiviiiana wofl alas rum1avni ns 3vanl ant-ut I

abnbivib inIgirl 'faq

noilsl,i gnoiia a lidirl armft arb iaiFl .anoassu rhI io Iqmaa aithi aoorh3 W

IIsi3nsnhl 3Th am-ill athi Mdl Inoiia ugis ¶1-Fl bno3 .wofl rIas3 brus ln,mla,vni nwld 'biamiliI 1*53 (88Q1) ¶1-Fl aus3fl .amIdoiq noilarmoThi to aus3d 'bIiI Iaom bniaii2no3

vanl 3W lath in3m1aaib on 3d ns 313r11 iutat,1iI aidl ni au3qaq IIato inisq 3nli b31,bi2no3 3d

to idmun 3113 nia3b usai iuolo 1203 rIinl 3r11 nvi hIsriil .3Iqmsa 100 bala3!32 '1,a13vbs

.hds,anam al amill

io1 qHI d bibuia t8QI ol OQI ais rtutlt msa di ioI 3Iqmaa ainil wollol W aibIodisrla ol ai3fl31 b3333h1o3 w iaiil a3woa 1rn3v32 moil slab b3133Ho3 w m-ill 11353

dl bris einmiai2 Iai3nsnllt ldaIisva ndw) 'iibiupil bris anoiisl,qo to anoiaau3aib in3msnsm

\t.o'I bniaido oals W .is-rrnft 11353 ioI A-Ol 10 lioqsu taunna rhl moft alnm.tsl2 320111 01 2310n

nilnuo33a busbnaia b3nisldo W boiiq Iqmaa is I di ivo ai1lna x%i1 oucnuo\..

Isunns a'o3,IoD moi1 bnisido 3w ibirlw o33IoD io aodi 3q33x3 TAT21JMOD moil a3Idsi1a,

ion 3Th slab iuo ,TATUqMOD Ion ,ruiJ 5018V moll sslb ti,rhl bnis1do ¶H1 5205338 .aJtoqsi

.aii,rli as smaa sdl 'Isai3siq

,W .81 msli TAT2IJMOD niau asiulibriqxs InIiqs3 10 lnsnnia,vni siuassm sW

rtibns aisa 153211 ;iss' lsbnsIa3 auoivsuq sill 01 bsngi2as sia I snuL s,obd 3nibrts auss' 153211

.iss lsbnsIs3 lnsTuJ3 sill 01 bsniaaa s-ia I snut isuts

Page 10: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

8

bLicc ( w-Ac12)UO IjC Uc!I cWcU '!LP 4C EC ( w-AcI2) uq Uwi2 q!q A!JPIC 2OCj(

MC n.c op ,iou uot pccnc uu niizcpcq Acm. ( uui-Xcm.Y ULW qiq

tu qJC orn.jp dnmcL MJJIJC MC flPC fl3C CU1 WSLJ(CI A9flC ocdn!A tjc Aci. cuqc cwscqMU U' cct ccouq u-u nc tpc cic wrcr inc o cdni

!WbL01CWCW0P!1J W '°' !'°Vq CO U91!OIJ °O !'P J!wtCq bvu!cnln,A MpCuMC !wbI? nc wmrci-Lo-pooJc Lt!O IPC LIJR lu bCI4FC q !A!aC (Joof) iuqJc1c Lp1 t}JC

O LI-IL !U l:Mo M9?2 LU2H-IL cowbns ) pcq ou cbiccwcu co

obboi.jnui!c JJJC EHb UJCflLC MIII IJOj q2IJrn2p CiMCCU IJLUJ MPOC 1OCC bucc

oi-Actocr bucc MC2fl2bCC Wit WCflLC oj) bto,iqc PCUCL IUOUJJI0U pofI1!WWW9IICL BCCfl2C JJC LI-lb WC?flLC i couuicicq MJiJJ U ACLG ocr bticc WflJCL p9u su Cuq-

rpCXCCCq iJJO2C IU hHb cxccb LOt 3IC bCL!Oq MPCLC OflL COCUjC!CIJ I UUJCWIA

qcjuwou? O MP" MC cxcnqc 3 iow OflL LCLC22!OI3 MC OP!U COCIjjCICUZ OU CJ IJOM

MC UL!pf11C IpC qlflCLCucca J)CIMCCU Oft LC2fl42 iiq O2C O4 El-fl) tO (C qflI.cut

tcboticq P EHL°

U!tCUr ftt !l Vt tpc 2WC t!WC Oft COCUJCICIU IOL 9LC U!UCSUtIA LCIJtCL pu rpoc

JOMCL ipu tpoc LcboLCq pA jj-nj JJIOaC qW OMCICL bbct tO PC oujA wtiuijA

q!U I!IUI !U OW qCt!I2 E 0LtPG tPLCC t!'' bctoq out cocujcicu ou C2 iJOM 9tC

U" uq Acat CLJCCj JflL LC2OII2 tc dnpwriACA 2!w!I tO 3O2C LCboLtCq p) hHb tporIp tpcA

WPIC t °L EHb JJJCC LCLca2iO1J2 LCtC22 !UAC2LWCW OU C2p IJOM suq 9uq COUtI.OI IOL xcq

ju tpc j MC cowb9tc tjJC P!C LCLC2!OU LC2UJt2 LOt Oft 9UJbJC Mitp ipoc tcboi.tcq !U

JCCt qcicuCq txc (ncw 4) MC CJCflI9C 5 Vt flJC P!uU!u oi uuu,2 uci Act

ocouiwou CdniA jC2 tpc 20 oupc poor ivjnc ocowuiou cdnitA (tcw o) uq IIVUCC

OflCt (itew ) MCLC c wtrct jnc ozec cdn2 pc poor AVTC osct bin tpc wtct

MC WCV2OLC VICLVC jOpIU2 O V IIJC UIVLJCCt AVJflC OZCt q!!qq pA tic pooc AVJfIC

i!PtIA .OW t}JC LCtJIYCCUICUt coat WCV2flLC cwboAcq pA El-lb

bIVut VLJq cdrubwcut(itcw g) i jpc pciuuw opc cj Act jp WCV2flLC 0LCYbIIVI qiUI2

(itCw )- jc qctc iuActwCut uq cp IJOM pA cVb!tI Mpicp MC WC9I1LC uct btobcttA

1JJCV2IILC cVp JOM V2 tJJC 2flUi OL CVUJIU PCLOLC CxtLVoLqiuVtA tcw (itcw j ) uq qcbtccitiou

Page 11: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

.iiup asI ,r1 ni 0 oi 01 moil 2a613fli iiq )l3oa aor1w mill s bus 01 ol 0 mail

cx 00 narfi iom ,vsrl ,narbx3 laoia s no b3iaiI ,is miii a3insqmo3 a1iupt )3 r1T

3f13 2fl131n03 miii )l-0I io Iloq3l lsunns its lil ol alaas ui noillim Z usd1 iom bits l3bIod3lsula

a'nsqmo3 s gnibisgi noimmiolni Ish3ism us as Ibw as aon 113111 bus ainm1s12 lsi3nsnuI 3i2sd

01 ,,1i,I s d b,3ubolini llsi,n is afloq,1 lsunns dT .noilibno3 Isi3nsniI bus aa3niaud

21n3',3 osm th 2311i1323b 'lIsuau 131131 tu(1T (O3D) i,alflo 3vi1u33x3t3id3 3(11 mail al3blo(131s112

.bs3ds (a)is 3(11 i6t b3rrnslq al33jolq lo 2n3Usd3 1ojam 3111 bus s 153211 auoiv3lq 3di b

- noi1slu51 ni1qobs d ain3m,liup,1 n11ioq3, ,a,rIl b3n3din31i2 D3 th VQI ui

b a1luai bus a331UO231 Isiiqs3 iibiupil iinii iIi3iIqx3 22U32ib ol 2ITTIII a3liup3l (13111W )l lo (0 m1I .anoi1sxqolo noiaau3aib ain3msnsm bliii IIsuw 21 ff011332 airiT .anoiJsl,qo

:231512 A- noi1slu1

,aln,v, ,ain3miimmo3 ,abnsm3b nwoml 'ns io abrtit nwoml ns 'ui1n3bI '1ibiupiJ (I) ni ni265133b 10 niasi3ni 1ibiupiI a1nsI1ai31 ,I1 ui 11u231 111w IsdI a3ilnith,310J 10

mull noibalo aiuoo di 3ls3ibrn b3ili1ui3bi ii n,i3fl3b Isii1sm sui .(sw 1siiism 'tis bus 'li1n3bi oaIA .3n3i3jbb ,di 'bmi ol As1 01 saoqoq 10 nlst asuf 1nsI1ai31 di

'(ns 22u32ib 1l,iid bits ,'iibiupiIlo aiuoe lsm1x, bits isrn3ini 3dil3a3b Irs1sq3a 213228 biispilbo aiuoa b3aunu lsi11sm

lsliqsa io1 ainm1immoa Isiimm 21nst1ai3i 3111 ,dns,U (I) .2,3100232 IsliqsD () b 3aoqTuq Isin, di 1soibni bits ,bon,q 163211 1a1s1 ,dIbo bn d1bo as aiuiibnqx

rlaua lIibIul ol bbn abnul lo iuoa b1sqioi1ns di bits aln3mlimmoa d3u2 di ui ,Idsiovslnu 10 ldsiovsl abnii 1siimm nworul ',ns 3di1323C1 (ii) sin,miimmo3 rli bits xirri dj ni agnsd3 lsi1sm b1qx ',ns isaibnI .a33w0231 Isiiqs3 ainsi1ail

.2331uo231 (1311210 1203 ,vilsbi

sin 01 3211q131n3 nslo iitids il1 ol aili ...

'iibiupiI rm3i rlT . :anoil3ullenI Ilsila iibiupiJ .dasa iol abn a,ahq-iln d1 im ol 1125310 ainuoms 3lsup3bs

aiasd fffl31-i10112 bus rm1-noI s diod no baauaaib d lIsi,n 3n1v5(1 315 ,r1i Ion io ir11Hw 32o1321b ol amill 231iUp5I Ibi3iIqx3 )I- aoi1sIu5l Mona ni

anou1sIu,i D2 wn dilo nimii zli 1111w in,laianoD .21n3m12,vni 113(11 ni3nsnlt ui ilualflib

.(€Q1) Is 13 siiuM ui l0.à D3

Q

Page 12: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

b3IiEl,b ,iom lsliw3mo2 d ot ibn anuil Iqma iuoiol rioitsmio1rii 1loq3l Isunns VVQI-toq 311i

orI1 0fl3 art 3mrI32 nOiX$3iti22I3 ,uo iauti tn3ix ,rti 01 Z1E3' 13i11S3 iot noit&mobn 3th nsrli

VQL l3fth 2Ift,' 1oi 1311am2 3d bkoda 210113

3vi1ii1nup jiliw i l1ot 2noq1 lEunnE 3r11 ni noil&nioIni 3vii1iIEup di 3W 3W

to no otni m-m-iiI d33 ti2aI3 at 1on bn6 an3m3iJe Isi3lmnfl 23rnEqmo3 3r1J ni noi1nnotni

.iquolg vit

b3niaUeno3 'lIaiormnit ion b1inuI3b 3d at mb w ftidl 2m1i 2niino quoi 12Ifl 3dT

-rrnit B ,3BIq 3W (DIM) b3ni1IJano3 IIiafthnfl ton 2B Em'(-rmll 23f1J OX 13131 3W .m idi ni

10 )13o12 baBd3iuq31 ,ibn3bivib rI2i b13ni io b3lciiini rmil 311111 quoi DIV 3111 uI m io bn bluow Ii nBtlt iibiupiI iom bd mill ,itl iudi iioqi IBunnB all ni b3ibni Iir3itqx3

31Db DIV m-gnil B bdsl OX 'I3)IiI 3iOm 313W O2IB 3W 31U1LJ1 3IdB33231O1 3111 fli ln3mla3vni

311113111231 ion bib ai3bn3I amill ,rIl Ii 10 (in3mja,vni oX 3v11s131) noiliaoq 11aB3 31BI bud rrnfl

31ob13111 m-miu1 DIV .(tn,rnia3vni at vi1abt) atn3msq bn3biyib iuI 3nblsrn molt mu

iz-mifl DIV nI dasa did bns id3b wol 1111w ainsqmoa rUIr1 'llsiannlI ,bulani oX bn,1

tO1 9'I03 1%W1 Ib1k 0l IO3 9%31 1k 0% i\H iobiu11

b alnuomu 3mI vad 01 iaqqa oaIa arniuI D114 zis,-nnit DIM ui .nsto o .b3liup3I abnuilbo Ifluofilu 321101 vi1gbi 2331110231 3IdB%i1B131S1103 bum abn&ib ISfll3lni

IIuianunfl 3d ox ion bAiI bduI w lsdi 2w'(-frnft 23bubni quol bno3,a 321T

ns vig Ion ob bum llsinunlI dtId ,1B 2flTlul dX iu,.mil1 DIVJ ui .(DIVJ) b3nisUano3

,23V13231 daua ,Idssia 31621 0) bn3i o218 annfl 3e3dT .b3nistlanoa 1ibiupiI gmii,do noijnaibni

DIV rnol1 b3r1aiunii2ib ,m aIu3(-nnh1 DIMJ 3g813v03 323131ni thiuu1 bum ,lib,,o'lo 23fl11 b321Ju11J

,dilo 3bulingBm d1 d bum 1ibiupil 2233x31o 1n5m31812 riailqx3 riu to ,an3adu nu 'd 2m3(-rmfl

011 1103 %m1I\%3I ofi llu 2t68'-ffflfl DIMJ iii ,niA .1ibiupiI lo 231U2E3ffl

3(11 311q23b tudi tuo ni1nioq dnow aiti .nWI 0% %1%0I inu

IIRnou1q33x3 nu iii m 3(11 b3bn3 3W :231612 floq3i Isuunnu IVI 'zainoijnnlq .iqmux iol rTn31-nol II lb biuq w 1B 3111 nhuU ia ivolo ',nuqmo3 u iob noi1ibno no,ia IuuanuniI 3(10112

ln3,nua us b3b333x3 ,Th 3211 Xuod3uolcli vsu1 2iaaa 1ntsviup-dasa bum ulasa 1110 bum ,Jdb ".23iluIidBuI

01

Page 13: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

rf1 ni 2! -rmiI ',i1 ioI YIMJ as b,sbsq-,bIw,H 'tiazsI3 w noiJ3uboIjni r!i iii ln,m,isia

.aOVQI

'IIsinsniI as iri1i, 1ia2aI3 oX Jlu3iflib bnuo w aia<-rmi1 abuI3rii quo biidJ r1T

.pIq) bnis1ano3 IIsi3nsnfl Idiaaoq ai -rrnfl ,a,,fi lls W .bnisIiano3nu as io bnisiJano3

looI Jon ob 'rH Jud $n15112fl03 I51305n11 o ania isb 'ens J1oq1 Jon ob armiI ais-m-iiX DN nil

lud rn1,mnoiivn bAism J3ubolq at,vbs na s1 aamfl ad1 'tJnupil .inlii biupit \hslu3itIsq

bivoiq nbinlw ais-m-iiI aabulani oals iO51s3 ainil rks io1 baqqsila (tJi3ilqx Jon is nsqmo £ ,bul3ni 1dim alili Iqrnax iol .noilsulia tSi3rlEnfl iidu1o anoi1sibni 1o13ibsUno3

aibIonf,isn1a 01 i,1l,t 3nii ni a31uOai Isi3nsnuulO A3a1 all ainmsI Jud boabivib au a2s13ni 15111

'tlsi3nsn1fl d oX bliI is anmit 113111w ni ais, -miii us anislno3 quoi 11JiuoI 3nlT

ninisJdo ni ai1tu3iflib nivsnl noiJn3m ianij armil aabubni quoi aidT .(DIJ) b,nialXano3

3tdiiIsvno3 10 'iiupa nis ,noqlaoq armil rtainlw ni ais-rnifl 3bu13n1 3W ,lqmsx io1 .ni3n5n1it

niJisw is Jud Laliqsa '1iup3 baan anIJ Jan11 misb io anoiJibno3 b*ism ,ai,vba iol nuiflo JcJ3b

nisq moil b31n3v31q is a3insqmoa 323111 lls13n3O .anoi1ibno3 J1Iam b3volqmi" io't

oi bAiI iom 315 oats abn3bivib 1U3 lath ainsqmoD .Idstisva nlas3 on io lJi1I 3v5n1 boa abn3bivib

.quo1 nIftiI ,nli 01 md1 niaaa aloJ3a't a13vba in1io aaatnu io,ls ainil ni list

tisiansnu1 tbiduobnu m armil ibitiw ni a,sar-nnnut Us abukini quoI last ,rfT

vsnf aJnsn3vo3 Jcbb'to noilstoiv ni ,is ainsqmo3 an13 aia miii ai11 nil (D1) b3nistlano3

is nJj ladi 31sib 10 a1n3m'sq J113b niiJsiJoan,t ais iiba13'to iiioa isuau iinlJ1o luo ba n,d

.amsidoiq Jibiupil'to wsad aln3nTlJa3vni aubi ob baioI

nil aani1tib 3viJati a3luJqaa m3d3a noils3itiaasb wo Jan13 Xn3bitnoa is w fiai3vO

3n11 'to niibs31 iuO .is navi a ni abmil 01 aaaaas 3vani amiii 3Iqmsa adi nlainlw 01 1n33x3 iiJ

(DlMJ boa) 3114 3n13 Jan11 aJs3ibni inoiia anoiaauaaib 1nIamasniam boa aln,nn,laJa IainanR

in13o nil .oaaonta oa 'ntl bad is Jan13 ni (iom 'IlsnJnia1adua n,flo) aiom balavni vad btuoa armil

b3niarianoa \iauo3ns1oqm31no3 aiw aninil ()114J bns) Y1L4 arfl didw nil 32fl52 on ai 313111 abiow

iaw 111'Ii as bavsnl3d amiil (Dfl4J io) B4 nv lath 'liIidiaaoq di inoai ,w ,i,v,woH

.sujJniI ,nll ni bsniaiianoa ui3d 'to isl io't b3niaIlanoa

II

Page 14: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

'5

!UCL U ClLbHI9t jg UCI IUC0WC M92 cncq p? pThCL1ULJIU!OU IiiE° Cx9uJbIc IPC EC roor 9c1!Ou 9!13i C9ltth!II9L juc iot uo cbo!ziIp

4ô 11LW2)

CCflUC o'c ipc wbjc bcLIoq (lu lC vbbcuqie MC LCb014 flJC Xct--)ca CI 'L'l!" tot ii

12 C0U2!21C111 M!lP IIJC LC2flII2 !U LI-lb (iX8) !iJq !" l9jC J IJJØI IuAc2pJJCUi-c92p UOM 2CU2!LIMHC2

(Mpcu lpcc JLW2 MCLC 2w91IcL) uq bm.1lcnIjA W.Ofluq LC 4- LCCC22IOIJ LP!2 L!WC b9uCui

9WOflUI OACL l!wC M!lp WOLC ULWE PC!U boui!JA cou2ll9IuCq tu gpc ctj? b91.1 olqic m.ubIc

COU2LSIU1 JJJC tt9ClIOU O IJUJJ2 19 9LC l I1 b022!PI cou R9UC POMCACL I9l.!C2

qCJUI1q? COU21L9IUC IOL 910191 00UIA I4o\0 )C9I2 !U MIJ!Cp IJJCLC 2 2OUJC b022!P!I!l) OLUU9UC!91

ftC CI922I1 7\0 o un-Acm? boepA c0ua1Ls!ucq fg0\o I!rI "r mq Q0\o 92

\o o\\i)ot. tu uo 1ctiuol (iic)q Oôo\° OIJJU2J-AC912 I!II U C!911A COu2IL9IDCq (n.iLc) tOL o too o\

JPI 011L CJ9 !UC9I!0U 0tU1AC9l2 MC dI922!Q �4o\0 OtUUJJAC9I2 92

' C223U0 \21't%

Lonb MC C9IJ pC couqciu iy pcc qIcI.cucc2 Lcbtc2cul 9uq uo su nbbcL ponuq

C9U pC CC149111 IIJ9I flJCA 9LC iuqccq cou2u.9ucq IW!J9tJA £0 131C CXICIU MC iuq q!cLcu 9CL022

qLCuc CLO22 LOflb2 jo £C CXICUL MC uq 'owe cowb9u!c2 10 PC Iju9Ucl9A Cou2Ll9!ucq MC

IJC9l!AC !UtoLW9i!ou ponjq P!92 OflL LC211112 9VIU2l £jUqIU 1JU9UC!9IIA cou2rLwucq cowb9u!c miq

fl1 9120 L9 IpC UUJC!VI 11CI1W C9LCIPIIA L!U9I1A 9UA W9IJ9CWCIJ1 LCJflCI9IICC £0 LCbOLI

Ijuji C9U W!2LCbOLj CACQ Acm. jjiiLq MC qo UOi LCA CXCIU2IACIA OU pC W9U9CWCU1 q2cn22ou2

Ac91. bcuoq MP!IC 9 JLW U39A PC 9JC jO W!2LCbOLj !u 9UA !ACU UU1i-AC9L II 2CCW2 nuI!rcIA £P91

IUIC 9IJCL MCU 1cCflI9l!0U -} ! UI CjCC1 CC0U MC LC9 9UUfl9J LCbOLI2 OACL 9 UIJCCU

qi2ClO2ilJ L912C !ut0I9L!0U flI I° OL VOl q2cJo2!u W91CL!9J WtOUJJ9I!0u jJI!2 ! b9ulcnlm.IA

W!2LCb0LlIlJ cuon btoptcw I0L 2CACL9 LC920LJ2 LU2l W91J9C12 SI.C i'iq I!9PIC VOl OUA U

LcboLl 1UIllitnhIA 9uq (ii) MC WA 1101 cIs22U) Ijwi-Ac912 9CCIJ19ICIA MC qo uOj AICM W9IJ9CWCU1

OOL C19221UC9110U 2CJJCWC 12 2rIplCCr 10 IMO bo1Cu1l Cu(!c!21JJ2: (I) W9U9CL2 W9A U01

Page 15: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

,viaiinaup gnuiIoq1 d md3a noiiaaiIk2ab luolo '3SlU333 fi ibino ,W

A bnaq iii .E 3IdaT iii anoiia3iha2ab 3v11 iuo aowa d1Iar1 lai3flaflhI bna !anoiiaiqo1o eiuam \(tt8oinoonom niIa,b 9 2'nidol bria (ia,mi23vni ,I wofl rks) wofl daa in woll rkaa naibm

to o\01 I ai amtiI D14 iol woft das tn1o IvI naib,m uii Iqrnax ioI .iioa vfl ,rli oia i miit YJ io'1 wofi daa3 bnlo bval nib3m rI1 31111w (inamqiup bna Xnalq t13qo1q bn) Ia11qa3

niqqai luoriliw nrui,ni Ii3di ba13ni 3vad bluo3 2rmiI DIM iadi aJu2 2irIT •\0Ø t2omla

ILsiUmidu2 al (Iaiiqaalo fl0i13a1 a a) 2noiti2iup3ato bvI nsm rfT .Ialiqa3lo iuo2 Iant1x

quo ixft i,rIio i1 ni 2m111 natlt (DIVIJ bna D114) 2quo1 ow iI iU ni 21n111 iol 1,tl8id

ia,'-rrni1 DII4J bna DII4 ILani1 am-mifl D1 ni 1nda bi3Iqmo3 3Ia enoifl2iup3A

01 .b3nia112no3 (IIai1n3Joq Jaf Is m tmfl tlaidw ni a -nni1 riarli rllwoig aIaa iom n,i1,qx3

.tilwo18 Isnimon na n3iiqx Ion ob amtil ia-miit D1

anims — avo tai1n1 .aiilaTh Lsionanil rmfl no a,ilailaia 'Iammua afloqi U

rn,Ii) an3qx3 Ia3l3lni 01 ( I m1i TAT2UMOD) UTII3 io nouai33Iq3b bna axa1 1a1,1ni ,io1d

aa3133b oala Ia1iqs talol 01 1dU anoiiafliaaaI iuo aaoa IIaino1onom a,nib,b -- ( bna Q am3Ii) 1db miI-3nol bits nnal-florklo uIav Aood t1flo mue diai ldb -- tIa3ino1onom

lo ,ulav lood r11 bits bo1a b nThq1o ulav Iood 3111 jdb1o mut 11I ti Ialiqa3 Isiol ,Iirlw (jE

123l3jni naibm aaI £ 3VsIl is,v-rmi1 D11.1 tI1 lath Iuo nuinioq ithow a' II .'(1iup3 nommo

ni .ô itomIs lo 3S13VO3 nsibm a vai1 aia-rmfl DIMJ dl Iii1w amd 8 iaomls lo ,a1,VO

a vsr1 am,-cmi1 D1 bits a,mil £ narll 223110 33E13V03 risib,m a varl aia,'-nni1 31J laaIlno3

I bmd lath 3S13v03 naib,m

— alnan3VO3 lthb amill a it11tIw 3IaIa Ila3Iq'(i aln3m3laIa Iai3nanfl tft 01 a1on ,d1'

a 13iq131n1 W .abnbivib 'faq ol 1iIida arniul a no 2no113111231 na 33a1q — Idb ria tad rmiI r1I

ain3msq bn,bivib no baaIq anoil3hla5l di 1315313 th b3niailano3 'IlSi3flaniI iom 3nid as tirill

1a3(-nnhI n3v13 a ni biiupa a,rnaqmo 10 a3aa3nlwdlo uIai d1 as anoiIiaiup3a 3151u3153 W rIi ni noiiamioIni 3111w anoiiiaiup3a 3251131uq aulav ,W .Ia1iqa 1S3(1o 3ninni3,dlo noil3ait a as

.arn,m,lala IaitisniI 01 aIon t1i niw anouiauJp3s 3nilooq 311IBV 3W .23311511310 In3m1s1a

1a W .3vt3a33n at 32113X3 123l3lfli 10001 2b333X3 33S13YO31i 001 0133613103123131(111323W

.3vila36n 21 UTIU3II 001 33ai3v03 123131(11

El

Page 16: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

rft bithol 2insnvo3 idb didw nI 21 -nniI lo noi1ft fj Isili atioqi £ IdsT a1nsnvo d is m-rmfl DIM .2floii2i1i22BI3 iuo aoi \II63ino1onom 2s1oni 2bnbivib lo 1nmsq

,mij d31o o\°ô fisril ,iom bi3i1ie1 ia annft DI bris Dli Iidw rni1 3r$fto 0\°1.à b13i1r1

won 'Ij38x, lioq,i 0216 2rnmJaIa lsI3nsnit 01 ion nD ,ei '-rmi1 lo 1iiojsm r1i ni

°'fiflfiflvf3 tthb bi1i2 rIi ibiw ztnm'sq bnbivib iol ,ft is rtinis b,ni,i,io doum

DIM nil .quoi viI iuo 220136 IIE3ino1onom 2IlsI muons 2idi lsnli 2tsorbni £ 3Idsl lo H bnu1

i'(io nunnid1o o\08.O 2I8up 2brIbivib lol aninnslo mnuoms nsibm nft is-mii1

\uoo ni 0tV nn tk to'tn io i% jn,m1vni 216 n1flo o\°8 12om16 bns Ismiq6o

1%0%7i1i\ U011'H 03 th\5 \°%t o ou nWI'O o uo ouc

d2solo mu n1i) Iosle bns nb,iolo ntit baunu (l mii TATU9MOD) riaso IIsnil

2! JasI ,2fl0j353111225I3 1U0 22013E 'l1sornojonom tiilb us (Iib,ioIo ,nul b,aunu dm bns

3IdsliEvs 'CbiEib3mmi mibiupiI to 2brniIlo muons di1o iu26tn 6 2bivo1q Ii uaood lnsiloqmi

'ltiommo3 ,i,w armit au63d 1sdwmoa 1ibiupiI ,tni msimvo sm los1 .bn,-s 16 ff1111 6 01

l3aIa nsibm d1 nibns1an1jiw Jon noilsoiuilsup mdT .a3nEIsd nr1sanqmoo nislrlism ol b,iiupi

iol 1n,m1avni ais 3d1lo o'l bits 1s3iqs islo ninnicJlo o\°V 21 ais-mii1 DIV nil

.o\°l I bits o\0 8 alnuoms auooIsnts ,dJ 21s(-nnh1 D1VJ

aIIsl miii £ iiIidsdoiq dflo aI3bom 1iol btsbio s1smiia w l3n13 Isnoilibbs its aA

is aiIuai dT ian1id n1i DI bits isJa awoI dt nid DIM dliw — aonotso 3viI oth Jo no ni

Iinsoitinia 21 bnisiianoo (llsi3nsnu1 as bi1iaasIo nid1o boor(ibIiI 3dT J ldsJ ni bmnaiq

ts ain3m'sq bnbivib modw iol bns Q idid ,Isliqso Islol 01 mdb idid nlriw amiit nil 1151

rtid ,riaso riin1 wofI daso nIid diiw anmiI nil l3woI Imnsoflunia ai boodil,1i1 3th ;nbbidiol

us is mibio1o nuI baunu ns diiw bits abnbivib io1 it anims bniabi n1id ,bisq ebn,bivib

mqox alnl3uoifio3 3di us bits IvI o\01 ,tlt Is Insoiuinia 'IIiiai1sia I5 unifftoo dI hA

nid1o 1iIidsdoiq DIII no ioBqmi vi1iaoq s ss1 9 .nia bmoqx di vsd 9 no no di aqsrhq

iitis rIi to moa as lbw as tdb on asd nnnfl s Isnhi a183'( nil b,rroqt ton ai noilsnmolni aintT .2153' null

I"

Page 17: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

2WU12 OACL 2np-bCLJoq2 MC IUCLCT (pG bI.cc!?!ou O(OflL CI22!(1CV(!O1J CCOU( (pG LC2CVLC

CACU !P1 1jL1JJ M2 COU2U11IUC IU OUJA ouc oupc gccu wblc B WC921IL!U IJUVIJC!SI

L!I.lr (pG CI 2!UCV(IOU OACL (pG CU(!LC 29WbpC bcLIoq MlJJ Cj22!I) V 92 IJUVUC!VJIA couji.iucq

boa2!p,A Cou2nV!11cq OL UO( cou2(tVucq MUII!U C9C 2flp-bCLJOq MC qo (Jill (OL jpn LCV2OU2

O 9uq O J4' MC CJV22U1 (1U1 9CCOLqiU (0 MpC(JICL (JICA MGLC I!FCIA Coulfl.ViuCq

MC VI0 VCV(C 8001101 (JUOUCI!J 2(92112 U(O OACL9fl 2(92112 OACL (MO lnp-bCLioql: io.xo

ULC OL EC lu 92 C921 ouc cJUIbJC Acm.

OL fl4 Ec) JU VII (JiG LG2( h!'II 5 L" LC I!rCIA COUzu2luCq JJJG2C (111112 MCLC cJollt(1cq 8?

Couln.siucq' JJJC2C 1jul12 MCLC boal!pIA C0Ul(10(UC !U 92 IC0( OUC Acm. 9uq UO( C0u2(1.ViuCq (imC

lJi0MC ouA 2!1J o pGiU (JUOIICIVJ(A Coulp.oIucq OACL (pG CU(ILC bCL!Oq E!IU (JUl12 m.c b022!pJA

Coulnolucq -- (}JCA MCLC cIolliIjCq 2 1.4EC OL rJ4LC !u VII I 2VWb(C ACm.? JJJC2C (JUl12 UCACL

OOL C1922!1jC92!OU bLoA(qc2 V LC9( C9J 0A0L!92!OU (4!UC(GCU VIC UCACL

(JLW2 MIJ!cP pCCOUIC COU2nVWCq MIJ JiCPVAC 92 ft((J 81.C coul(LViuCq

UCACL (JIIVUC!VIIA C0U2(LViuCq LOW (p02C (192 MCLC MC qo ((1(2 (0 VCCO11IJI (OL (PC (lJccppooq 1(191

owbjc (1UVIIC(VJ 2(91fl2 (Lo(pcL (JiVU IJuJl-AC9L ijumiciVj l(9922) lAG q!2(Jufl!2p IJLUJ2 (p91 MCLC

CVCII (JU1J2 VIJIJOVJ (1IJVUC1VJ 2(92112 111(0 911 OACLVJJ WCV2OLC 0(Ijl39UC!VJ 2(92112 MC LCICL (0 (p12 92

(U OL((CL (0 01J0(AC !UAC2PUC1U-C92P flOM 2CU2!I!A!UC2 OACL (1IJCCU AcVI.z MC 9LC92C

. - IMLU\\ \JUOUC10( fl92

VCCflLVCA 0( OflL CJV22UJC91100 2CPCUIC

AVUVPIC2 !u (pJC miq (C LC2OI(2 u wpjc bwAIqc V eji.ou dnouqi92(AC AOl Jqv(lou o jpC

OACLVII MC (GCI 1(101 (JIG W0110(OUIC bogcwa O(UJ021 0(JPC 0bCL92W miq

i( JiV2 WOLC !UAC2WJCU( obboi.jnu!(1ca (P!P O)

I? 1(191 Couqiriouo( OU pVA!U V IOM C9?Ji (J0M MC CIV22!I.) 92 WOLC J1JCCJA (0 pG Coul(Loiucq iJ

(U (JIG VJi2CUCC 0JCV2Ji UO1 (JIG C0CI.JJC(CU( 011(5 CC0WC2 11CV(!AC OUC MVA (0 (U(CLI)LC( (31(2 LC2IIJ(

IJUJI IjU9UCiV PI(W jiJC I!FGI GXbIVUST!OU (0L (p!2 LG2OI( !2 ()2 bm.(92 COLLCJV(IOU Mi(p CO2JJ (JOM'

1(uucigjjA cOUlnViuCq j(112 !l (LUG qclbpc (PC flU1AVL!92C LC211I( 111 (8pC 3 (p81 (5 ((CCLCO2C2 Mifli

Page 18: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

brlaiIdsla i,w ud ,0Q1 ni lisma iw lsrli ainsqmo3 biawol Iqrnsa d1 asid qHI ni nia,b

io ,-isq ihs iIi iii mills ioidT .a sisb niJ ,uIsV ,rfl ni b,bubni d o t8Ql d dguon3

rIJ ijhs, blon as biir1T .no iisI mill msa rii moil lniThb Idsvi3no3 ai Iqmsa uIi

avo1qmi thoq1 Isunris lb alofflooI bns anoiaau3aib 1nrnsnam rD ru b3nislno3 noilsmiolni

bno3a r1J ni annll b3luiaasi3eim vsrf w Isril iiIidiaaoq rit ladi ,,it,d w iohir1T XVQI ,fis

10 vivijiana sth lloq,i (88Q1) ¶-FI ,iihs, bon as IIsni1 IIsiinsladua a,nib,b bon,q-dua

13W am-ill adi ndw Iqmsa rflio lEad laill di ni nb-uia hsIu3iJ-Iaq ai woll rlas3 01 jn3mJ2vr1i

.b3nisflano3 (IIBi3nEfIll nd ',sd o (Mu iom bias iIIsm

Jel won fl53 w aulsia b,niaflano3 '(IIsi3nsnll am-ill sb ,uasm tiib a thiw b3rmA

.ailivijian,a woft r1as3-lnrnlavni ni a3ru3i1tib Isnoil3,a 22013 nisIqx alnishiano3 r1i3nsnhl Ii

iaokaZ l7Sl1 .. .t

,III au W .alJlala hui3nanll Iqmaa mill '(d bias arrnll Its iol anbiaa311 3ismiia, W

iuo alnaiq 1dsT .boiiq Iqrnsz ,iuin rtl ivo I 31d51 ni blnaiq 2noils3lli3q2 rioi22ii

3ididx (is Iqmsa ni MJ io D1i4) b3nIs-Ilano3 ivn as b,iliaasI3 armil .aiIua3l 3tasd

(QE.0) Iqmsa iibn di iol isdi nib3x5 0.0) '1ivibiana wofl rks3-lrlmia,vni ladirl rli

(081.0) bnis-Ilano3 Idiaaoq -uw *111 amift iol bias (04.0) bnis-uiano3 IAiI iw Jail] am-ill iol

,rlj nail] iJs,-u IIa3iiaiJsia bras (IIa3imono33 ai am-ill b3flisliano3 iv,n dJ iol 1ni3rn,o3 rfT

am-ill irtJo dl iol a1ni3lflo3

'(Idiaaoqlo noiis3 il,aasla 3r11 dhiw Idsiuolmo3 buiin, ion us w i,ihs bJon w aA

am-ill iiill iuods noiiamaomni viisn floqi-ibnu ol bnl msnsml1 .armfl bnEa1ano3

riliw armll bnis-Iiano3 (Idiaaoq Jrf8ts 3rfi quoi oi iaiiqoiqqs d bluow ii nrl1 ,noiiibno3 Isi3nsnll

b,nislJ2no3 no Jni3lfi,o3 dl ai3woI 3niquolg audi tniaiiqiua loV .armil bnis1Thno3 IAiI rlJ

rlflow all! am-ill bnis-Iiano3nu bras armll bsnis-liano3 nwid qs rli anbiw bras ,0.0 ol armll

'11-H bnbiib-dirl r1ilo lath molt ffi3-u1uib '(Iins3lliniani ai liviiian,a .O di JEll] luo niinioq

of

Page 19: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

.aunii at3 IHI di1o lath naiii 1IIEm IIsub baa 2nnht E 2aE13

baa vilavno3 (bVi23X nd vad w ladi Idioq 2i ii Iiianil!A

w ,'Inib1o3aA .bniaIi2no3nu ia1 ni Iw ',rIl ndw b,niaIlauo3 'Idiaoq aa amift bfliazaI3

ivn i1i iliiw amul bnia1iano3 Idiaaoq sh quo, w rlairfw iii noiaari a iamiia oala

(QEtO 03) 'IIaiinaiadua iiviliar1a wofl daa aamla3vni 3di aiwoI airil IirIW arinil brtia1jano3

wofl ra-inrniavni -i a iidii1x amifi bniaianoanu latH lIuai 3iasd di iiIa ion aob ii

3ivi1iana

-dua owl olni lqmsa 3111 laid lud aia'Isna 3iasd iuo ia3q,i w ,V baa a aIdai ni

as boiiq-dua VQ1- OVQI 3113 ni milt a aisi3 ldsT .t8Q1 01 8VQI bns VQI oi OVI :aboiiq

à Idai ni b,ln3a,lq anoiaa3i1 3dT .boiiq-dua l$Q1-8VI 3113 ni nniI msa ,ttl moil in3l3Ttib

a1n3i31113o3 3113 nisA .(a133113 b3xil boh q-dua-rmIl rIliw) thoiiq-dua-rrnit 8Q bubni 1oh13rI1

woil 112 -ln3mla3vni 1la3i 3vsrI astiR b3nisIiano3 IIsi3nsnhi isdi aiarI3oqd d3 lj31 Iqisda

-in3miavni as sd boii3q-dua a iii bsnisilano3 ion is lsrli amill ) Idsl ni .a3i1iviliana

-dua nail ha iol ElO to 'iiviliansa sill asali i3issI 'hnsi1ingia ai airiT .08a.Olo 'iivi1i2na

'lshiI 10 (Q.O Is) bsnisi3ano Idiaaoq sis Isdi amiul to '(liviliansa sill nsth 1asi baa aboiisq

(4rO is) bsnisIlano3

sw rl3trlw io1 aboiisq-dua-rmil nssftul sill iot atluasi noiaasisi alnsaslq oals sidaT

sill ni Il abohsq-dua nssflil sill to asl ".bohsq-due sill ni iss' viss ni D1l4 as miii sill '1iaasl3

sd 01 'si\ aasi sisw annii slqmsa sill suis 1W1 nsvs 113111w niiub boiisq t8l-8Q1

Q .Oi ns.si tvilusa ok 4nai u1l a3iiVi .bsnisliano3

lM t.l ZXW%J 1O O I¼\3 '410 X3 ni smsrl3a lath idI floqqua svilsliinsup sill ban smsilsa noiis3itiaasl3 iuo no bsasfl

niiub siom lasvni 01 sldanu ,isw amni sasdi Isill sugin ol sldiaaoqmi ii bail sw ,4 has £ asidal

'(Its Iu3insq a bsat eamil sasril lath sugis ol tlusrnib Ii bail oats sW aboiisq-dua I sasrillo '(itS

-dua I sasrll noms bsbul3ni 21 sIqmsxs iol b,alss9-JlsIwsH snsnfl lsmsixs to 1203 rlirI

owl 'Ino tiaasb SW saussd boiisq slqmaa sums sill isvo noilnsiiiaaab audi sissi Ion ob sW .aiss' nssftfl his ni D1M as armil

VI

Page 20: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

-1nm3vni n arf b 3q-n,IwH boA .(i'QI-OV21 iii ron r1uodiIs) t8I-8VQI ni boii,q

boB boii,q-du VVQI-OVQI itii,vo £QO bohq-dua 8QI-8I ,dlivo VQOlo 'riviin won

vtv ni DCIV 3th srIi nni1 I di I1i riiiow ai H .boiiq IqrnB2 ,iitn rIl ivo 1.1

trD nni1 ED aIHTIo ,aorft or tIimia m 1t1i 23Ir2I,r3EmrI3 IBi3narTiI vI boi1q-du2

D1V di Iqmax ioI (E.O) i,hi2n woll d-lnmni',ni wol a vaii boa boabi',ib dgffl aq \(IIa3irirai2 boa !Ia3imono3, -1a iacJ aoilai gaivo l3lrn var1 rmiI E aD qH boa sonil

Iidw boia1i2no3 d ns sonillo is no wod bnaJaibnu or tlu3iflib srnn II .,!darkiuni1ibni

Ion si itho dl

on bniI ,w nisA .'braaq3S sbotiq-dus owl rIl1o rI3s ioI 531u231 2,n321q V ldaT

-dus drod ni .wofl ff553 ol IoamIsvni Io iIisns flI niaIqx alnialiano3 lalananil laiD ,artabiv

'fItnaaitjnj5 a ,varf bniaiirtoa ivn sa bus D14 sa tieeaIa w lath smut di sboi13q

-8VI 3rD ni iornttfflul simiflo equoug 13db di usd1 tiviliene woft -tn3mls3vni idid IIaarioronom eniIab livhiene db snoiraafliaaIa iuoo niata 3lorn 3Th 3W 31311w boiwq t8Q1

.bnisu3enoa as smut 1iaasIa 3w dairlw or 1n31x3 ,f1I dtiw

s't' %noukQ

3varf w Isdi b3m3anoa d sm 513bs31 moe ,00tla3a auoiv3uq t1b ni a3Iuei 1i nsvii)

-• noI hvo ns no suisle 1siansni iron 3012811 'd 10 stab svibslilsup niau d smut b,iuiaeabaim

errriiI 3niquol3lo e1Iuei rIi luoqu 3w mnoa seHr aaubbs oT .boiuq — is nfiu1 or nv.s

autsis larananit Isunns no baad boa stab 3lil33ldo \ 3viraiiinaup no b3asd

woft des3-rn3mlevni sIi to etamiIa ln3e1q w 8 3Idsilo (E) -(1) anoieeuau iii

(ii) boa wol3d aqoib ivn sivo3 le3lstni aor1w stroll ,iqmaelo o\° ,u1l (1) io'l iliviii2ne

rive owl di ns',iO .boiiq Iqmse 31i1n3 sift isvo bi3l1las1 isvsn sia ebn,bivib ssorlw stroll

'IvilaI,i sisw Isull stroll 'itnabi bluotle 5131113 sesrlt boiisq slqmss sill usvo snoisesasi

isvsn saisvoa seotiw cmiii El sdi ioI '<iivilianss woft rIea3-lnsmlasvni silT .rIlIssrI lIaiansriit

.slqrnas Subs sill iol QE.Olo Iiviricnss sift null EV.O Ia 1315313 Itna3ilin3ie H wo!sd sqoib

ElO Is bstaiilssi 13V30 sus sbn,bivib seodw stroll VI sift iol livibiense woft uleaa-insmbssvni silT

81

Page 21: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

.I1nu1in9i Ion f1uodi1z Iqm2 1iIn th io i,iIian ,di oaI

W . ,ldBi ni bib w a boiiq-du olni Iqma ,rli 1iIq w ,() - (4) noi,11 ii!

boiiq-du-rrniYto o\0 dI (I) ioI aiiiViIin wofl da3-1nmizni rli1o 2iEmiI2 If121q

2bnbwib odw 2m111 (ii) briE ;boii,q-du ,dl ni U wobd qoib i,v,n E1V3 111ni 32011w

'IviIIiIrisup briE mIimil 'bviiIiIaup m 2m3flq 311T boiiq-dua 3(11 13v0 b3I3i,I1 I3V3fl 31E

I rI1 io1 1iviiian3a woO rk3-in5rni23vni 3dT .boh3q 3Iqm 31iffi3 3(11 ioI or1i nr1I inoi1

3W .108.0 1181(1 1dsIiam3i al boii,q-dua £ ril wol3d 2qolb 13V3fl 3E13VO odw 2m1il

ni 00q l bmbnsi d 8811 b1i rmili io1 1i1ni nBib,m ,rIi rsr1i flJo Iriioq bIIJod2

ron m limit 323(11 biow 131110 flu ..ô aw A b31s1 lm1i1 io't rlsib3m ,di ;8.E sw 18Q1-Qct

.aboil3q-dul 11i ni 21m31 3iuIoldB ni nsnu1 srn31x1o 212o3 rl8id hElu3iimq b,s1 3vEd 03 (13)111

IErn33x3lo 212o3 i,wol b331I r13 IBth niEtI '(IIEuiIiv liii irrn1 3viIE!31 ni ,'IrnEIioqmi 3loM

woO d3-In3mi3vni 13r13i11 £ wodz i bn 3lqrnE2 iuo ni lfmil id1o rIi mini riEnul

.(1iViIi2fl32

'(d i1iv11ien woO da -in3nhla3vni ,ihuo ismiTh IEiln3l,llib 1n3a1q w 31dE1 ni

da ri3ini w aiiI '.w1ai lnimilno3 Ii3nniflo amjam Iaiiana (111w woO nllE3 8ni1o133ni

10 32E11 dT .au1i2 IniBrlano3 Iinsniflo 2flOi13iti22sI3 Ismins iuo iol eIdsimv immub ,111w woO

Ion s 1i22B13 w 2ts3(-m1fl -- 21 '(-miii D14 3111 or 2bnoq,no3 111313111303 b3I3si3lninu

noiIS3iuIlasI3 m -3111-'Io-bn3 3n11 airm,Jni (1) nmuIo3 iii noi,i,i 311T .b,niEljeno3 '(IIEi3nErlft

2m3'( igril illiw noiis3iIillsI3 1S5'(-Io-8ninni3d 3(11 li3M3ifli () nmuIo3 ni fl0i223l31 3111 ,linlw

.21n3m31s12 Isi3nisnit 153'(-lo-bn3 3111 riiw zmiit '1isb w 32u833d nllod iioq3l W woO d3 3f1T .2nOi33 auoi,,q nll ni aXIul3i 3(11 or Is3iin,bi '(bvilslilsup ,nisgs is lilua3l 311T

.iniEU21103 tai3rlsnflIo 31lJas3m 3viIsiiIsup mo (111w l3nib,b 1ivi1i2n3a woO 112s3-in3rnia3vni

3d3b Ii no elsup, Isdi Idthmv '(mmub s (111w woO dvi3 135131fl1 ,W (E) fl0i2231831 ni

3(TIIJ22S 01 31d5no2s31 em,, II .m'(-nnu1 £ ni abnbivib 3ni'(sq moll miii 3111 13113231 linsn3vo3

.abnbi',ib 3ni'(sq moil b313h1231 ion imfl nscIi b3niaiilno3 '(IIni3nsflul 31O 315 Imlil Ibul isrIi

1q33131n1 snil io1 lsIdsnsv '(mmub sbulani oats sw nsnlw IS3IiflSbi '(IsvilsiiIsup 515 211u23I iuO ff1151

QL

Page 22: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

2mllt iol .uk on iuo\ I1ns3iIini ai v)iviii2fl woll 3-3fT,mi,vni 3rlt tdi bna 3w ,niA

Ion ob 3W 1o131311i d3idw) 21Iu3I I3itn3bi IIaufliv niztdo 3W .lbn3bivib niq molt bt3i131

.3Id8ii8v mmub 3rlflo 3uI bsI 3di au 3w ndw (i-ioq31

no I8up3 isril ,Idaiisv mmub diiw woft rk tsitni w (1) nois,ii iii 'I!snF1

noii18ft S as tib3l3lo aniI b3aunu bns rfzs3lo mua 3rti -- 3ldsilsv bs!a iuo d3idw Iii ai-mii1 idi

-lo-gninnid1o o\08 ai1toiu 13812 wol ,rIT .a1s3-fmil1o 3tiflsup IawoI 3r11 iii ai -- Isiiqs3 b

It .Tboiu3 .idJ 03 ,viiiana ion s aiIua, iuO .Qn3rnqiup, bns ioslq 'flqoq i,n) 1531q53 ts amifl nath b3nisiiano3 IIaiannfl 3Iom 518 )1381a aaI riliw amill isrit muaas ol 3Idsnoas51 ama

wI i,r1id Ion iwoI al IviIiana woll daso-in3m1avni iti isili bnfl 3W nisA iI3aIa siom rliiw

b 3uIsv b,sI 3r13 3U 3w n3rfw aituasi 1831i03b1 IIsithiv nisldo w ,nisA .t3512 wol riliw amiiI

.31d8118v mmub 3111

3viisnInsup niau noii33a auoivsiq 3(11 ni as niltaq 3m82 3r11 3vl3ado w n3(1i tls13vO

13V0 alriisiianoa IsiansniI bo iuasm ,v11aiitaup iuo niau bns alnisllano3 lst3nsnuI b iuasm

.aboii3q i3ior1a

.70i I1i 3lasd iuo bo anoiisaili33qa 3viism3ihl bo l3dmun S tIoq31 ton ob lud b313biano3 3W

'dno d1 as woll 11as3 niys3I 3Id8im, tn3bn3q3bni ns as 9 b3voni3l 3W (1) anouaa3131

9 rliiw 3ldsiIsv In3bn3q3bni ns as Isiiqs3 01 a3Lseo o11si r1i b,bbs 3W () .,Idsiisv in,bn3q3bni

.a,tdsnsv inbnqbni as 9 bris woll rfasbo asI ow'l b3bul3ni 3W (E) .Isiiqs3 03 woIb rtas bns

(ii) Q bns wof1 da83 1n,mia,vni b,iozniw (1) :w a13iIiuobo ,3n3uFbni 3(11 3311b31 oT (tx)

b3isnimil3 (iii) bns ;lsiiqs3 naIII 13(1351 a332z5 Isiol d woft rksa bns ln3mie3vni b,1sFbb

,W (ô) .(IIsubivibni mill (b83 i61 anoiaai rigi 3W () .wofl rtaa3 3viIs3n iliiw anoilsvi,ado

318 zituasi iuO .3Iqmsa 3(13 molt mill lstu3iIlSq 'ens 3buiax3 ,W1i bloil 211U231 3(11131113(1W b33rb

.a3viJsnisIIs 32311f10 Its isbnu Isaiin3bi 'IIs3i1ai1sia bns l3vi1siilsup

Page 23: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

?A\4%1 k\O 0O%7.1Ü

b3iai3oaa ion i wofl rka3 03 inmj2vni lo (iiviii2n2 S1It1 a larti ia3ibfli aiIui iuO

nam boa (88I) IW1 ni 2JIu2, 3d1 djiw 2iaaiao3 airfT 2m1Ii bniai3ano3 IIainaniI thiw

iaIi orii narli 1iviii2ria 1r1irI a lidirix, b,nialj2no3 aI aqqa larli 2nniI .a1qaq 1n,up,du2

i Ii nibniI iuolo iuian Isi2Tvo1inoo ,di n,viD .bni81i2noa ni,d1o ania ia,Ia 1a1Iriam

nwbd qidanoilabi r111o 2iuia1 tfiin iWqaa 23Iu2 iuo ididw ioIqx 03 lnsnoqmi

.au w upifTrI31 gfj io ,Iqrnaa dr ol 3iIia,qa ia baj2ni io woli daa3 boa jri,IrUavni 3aiOq1o3

znot 0zo oidl .' . !f1id no bi w iatil al aJIuai iuolo noiianaIqx (eaimaib 01 iai2a boa) i2Iqtni2 rIT

iom aau iu1aiiiI di1o ra,, dI Iir1w zinia1i2no3 Iainani11o aioia3ibni 'iaiiidia io ,vi3odij

.anoaa,i ,,idi 1aaI is ioI bbnuomnu IIaioi aa m2i3i1i1 ii1j biai ,W .sii,1h3 3vi13do

s1i1 aii,iii vri31do1o aii,a a ni2U allua,i ialimia '(bvi1aiIaup nisido w 1a-ii1

.abnbivlb iol b,l3iiia,inu aninta1o i0110ma boa ,S1V03 muminim

AiI mill a ladi iduob on ai ,irjT .iaiiichs ha is ion ai nbInai ,viiabi -iuo bno3,

aibio) ,AiI mill a narli b,rdaliano3 aaI 21 (i,qaq ,dilo ninni,d gfj is ,ioup a) bia)ba1 jiIw,H

:cQI ni

26w aIaJ iinaiM ni inslq baoqoiq di ni noii3uiIaoo3 ,lsiiqa3 3',12n03 01 ibio nF ,Idsirua 25 0002 25 fTiU25I hhiw how lath bisqi3i1na 2131 .1,dm,3,Q iii bbnqaua

.iiocpl Iaunn.A QI Thldaliava ai ninaniI

.,m,r132 noiia3lulaeala iuo tioqqua ,IdaT ni b,iioqi 2ioia3iboi ,viiaiiinsup ,di Its i,vo,,oM

ia *iow zuoiv,lq ni bau aii,1ir di lo moz iol anoilsbnuol Iaaithorhi ,rhi hIani1

boofi ,qH1) noii,ina isluqoq laom t1T .m:rba n011a3R122a13 iuo oath aiiidia iom ldsuia

ai ([QQ1] brttiW boa biadduH ,qadaaA boa jQQh] bisdduH boa ziiimolaD ,[1QQIJ iir1,M boa

Ion bluork am-ill lath 2ia,ua to,d1 3nanil ia1oqIoo I,isniiflo1nU .iuoaq bribivib no b,aad

rfw1o a,iio,dj niiix ,rhilo laom ionndtw1 .axa11o 53naTq rh oh ha 16 abn,bivib ns 'faq

jn,iiaq laioqm,i ii,di niatqx .([8Q1] A3o$1 boa i,IhiM [QQ1] a(lad3ansr1fl) biaq is abnbivib

iom 'faq lath arnill lath muaea 01 fdanoaai 2, Ii th*uodiIA .bv,I ,ai,vs ii,di no in,Iia ,ia lud

Page 24: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

21111 ,!u113iI 13i31O3r11 3dfto 1nnu3 ,± ,b3ni1ano3 3d 03 IIiI aI abn3biyib

.3111218d3b i noi3qmu2

t'nt \s S. . 31u381331! 3111 Ui bmbn1a i ith 3nrn1,vni o noi1inflb d1 au 3W duorliIA

wdmun Iqmx io9 i33TIo3rIi i noiJiniI3b 2i111 1II11 ,Idiaoq i I (81 31118iIBv TATUMOD)

3Iqnm2 311110 w31 2 bris maioiq ln3mqobv3b bn8 113123231 3I6I 3FBd 31qm62 iuo ni 2(1(111 d1'1o

3b6m *rIJ 31qm82 113(11 molt 2rrnhl b3i6nimib d1 lsill 1on qWl rl3uoiiiIs) 2fl0t312Wp38 3)IEm lmliI

.(2noi1i2iup 3316!

1naflib iuol ni 20012231331 3126d iVO 311i16mi123 (d 23i1i1id1220q 323(11 iol 1flU0336 3W

-- O 3IdBrlsv TAT2U9MOD -- 231u11bf13qx3 IalIqa3lo flOilifluI3b 1fl313ftib 32U 3W 121iI .2'(6w

326d3Wq 32U *rIl 2noiliewp3a molt 1rl,mqwp3 bna 1rwIq 113qo1q ni 232631(fl 23bu13f1i 16(11

.ln3mqiup3 bn6 1naIq n3qo1q 13n ni 33(16113 3d1 28 in3ml23vnj 3181U3163 3W ,bfl0)3 .3ni1nuo3

AaBd 3nibb8 ln,mqwp3 bn8 3rz61q n3qo1q 13n fli 33(18113 3(11 26 1fl3m323(fli 3161u3163 3W ,biidT

bna iai bn6 23lulibn3qx, 1611q63 to mii 3(1128 Ifl3mia3VflI 3f1113b 3W jthuo .noiIEia3lq3b

03 16311n3b1 IIi12i*t2 briE (I3Vi161il6Up 316 lttdl 211U231 bI3i 23fl3m12u1b6 iuol hA .ln,mqol3v3b

.21113231 3126(1 iuo

£ 3V811 3Iqm62 1110 ft 21(1111 b3ni6Ilano3 2631 5(1138(11 Iduob Ifli1 21 315111 noiauI3no3 ill

UI 31Enqolqqsni 23 II 16(11 31Ot313fhl b3kiIds123 3V6d 3W .'1iYI1i2fl32 woll 11263-1fl3m123Vf I 13(13111

lo quoi 10 imIt £ *111 33n3bw3 3ivi1i2n32 woft (1283-ln3mle3vni 16i1nl31uib 6 3213 01 31qm82 iuo

.2i 3113231 21(11 1613(133 wod 23mo33d j13111 noi123up 3dT .b3n16112no3 hI6i3n6fht 23 2(11111

011S) %S'IVU O\çLO'LO 0 tO W0\%0) 1

di thiw b1nI,noa 21 (101131113 gfiJlOa 1U0 16111 2i 21(13231 iU0 iol noiIsnElqx3 1f31311ib A

3111 ni b32161 12111 1361 fli 26W lud 3q6q 1U0 01 311i33q2 10(3 2i m213111w tIIFF .9 lo 1fl3m31U263m2im

.(tQQI) 31,dbmmiH bun l2ilfbhiO Id irthiiI b,iolqx, briE (88I) adi3loq 9HT to no12213321b

'1ibiupiI1o 2133fts 3(11 molt 910 lnsm3iueEsmeimlo a1sIt, 5th 313n61n521b ol 31qm62 S 3ninhhq

Page 25: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

,idBIiBv 3Idsv1donu ui1 di rfliw b3lBbl1o3 ai nohiha 8013102 3113 ii 'Ino biI, 21 21018112003

B 21 wofl r1 113111W ol 1n3xs 11i) lo'n3 th rijiw b31al3no3nu Xud (wlai2 1018112003 IBi3nErlit)

bila', s iol 303m31iup31 bmbria3 311121 ,32w0310 ,2idT .(Qlo 303m31u2a3m2im 3111 iol xo1q

1110 3w8a3d m213ith3 23111 03 3jd1J2 2231 21 n3ia5b d3m2i iuo 3v3ibd 3W .3ldaimv Isln3mullani

3Idavl32doIlu 3111 31IJ283 'bia1u33a iom l1iw ,00iiRVl32d0 la,iib no b328d mrb nodE3IIi2aal3

.\I1s3i1Iqm3 uei 21(11 3lolqx3 03 lncfloqmi 2! Ii e3I3(1fl3v3V .3ldaiIsv

lo ln3m3luaB3maim d bubni noiThl3TIo3 auoiiuqa Iailn83oq 111 ubi 01 '3a112 300

lo Iaa ni (Ilwo13 3r0313x3 32om 3111 vad lath 2noi1v1,&Io 3111 3nulanimib 10 212120039

B iiiiw b318l311o3 3d irf3im m3ldoiq 3n3m311Jam2im 3(11 (1fw 2002831 owl 318 31311T .3n3m1vni

3113 rIliw 3031218103 .i 31111813111 30110110338 3(11 mthl 3303b1v3 321iI .3381 diwol3 2'mliI

boa) nima mlu3it1aq ul .einaqmoo 220138 3n113Thb 2301(08310 1033003 lBnoiIBmlo'mni

33161 lol nsili 2irtsqmoa 30iw013 ,3nuo iol noilaonolni 3lom vrtoa (woft c1za 'l3nibnoq2no3

(.[Q8QI] iwIloA boa 811llo3 ) .no b3daildai boa

lo 3ulav 3(13 d ldsiiav ,dl 118 31aft3b 'dIa3iq3 31u18133iI 2idl 01 ai3qaq 3111 bn03

bodl,m 2idT .1a3( 183211 3f111o 3ninrli33d 31(1 Ia (ln3mqiup3 boa 1naIq iI3qo1q bn) Ialiqa3

.rllwol3 on 2I 3131111i 10 2Iavl31ni floda Is b3bloo3t 1a eIdaiiav Ila'li 1BmiI3 ln312tano3 23bivrnq

tattoos Ia b3b1o331 318 23IdaiIaV .b3ikilaa 21 2noilqmue2a owl 31111013113130 13v3wod 33i13a1q nI

lol 1S3' 13q o\°8 I lo naib,m s — boiiq 3Iqma2 ,d1 iio IIai3ns3adu2 woi inaqmo boa 2Iavl3lrTi

(13111 231B210 3181 ftIWOl3 3(1103 18I1m12 3381518 W013 wofI 11283 boa In3mja3vni dlodlI .3lqma2 luo

33fl, aidT .103381 31632 B 0) 3Ub 3d 'tam woff daa boa 3nm3avni1o Irl3m3vom-oa 311310 iiaq

2(mIl ni lmIu3i31aq no biawol '(1ivi1i2n wofl rlasa-ln3tnla3vni 3(1110 a33sm1123 3(11 2aid bluow

.23181 dtwol3 launna 131131(1 (111w

lli3i3wnwob io 338n1m113 lsth anoiii 31ami123 aw 1iIidI22oq 21111 iol 1nuoa oT

lo 211112313(13 31oqSl 01 31(18310 anmulo3 iuol 12111 rIT .23181 (11W013 ((31(1 rIjiw 2flOilBVl32dO

0311W .(3IiJlaup iqqu 3111) 111wo13 23182 o\001 nadl iom 1111w a1s3(-m111 3buI3x3 18th 2(10(2231331

ldi22oq b3nia112no3 3111101 (I1w013 2316210 3381 nsib3m 31(1 2noi3av13ado 323th 318n3m113 3W

311T (\01 boa o\O1 I n33w1,d) Iaup3 \IIai1n3223 21 20011 b3niaIlzno3 Ion boa b3nia13ano3

Page 26: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

irIJ di ois mJ1sq rir IIsiffis1adu2 f1iI3b iii ViJi2fl2 WOfI-r1253 inni2,',ni

'I1soi3aij I!ij, i j1ivIi2n iii ,n,i,flib ,di bits msa di I3vitMiLsup 2ninm1 2fmit b aquo

w ndw 2iIu1 sIimi2 bis1iIsup noq1 0! Idsi to 2nmuIo3 iuot bnoa r!T .1nsfluriia

w IIsniI '.b,1duob niuli iom ffi,mqiup bits 1risIq fl,qo1q bit d3idw 01 zis-rmit ,1snimiI

S 'Iqqs w nrIw (2noi bthoqinu ni) 2iIu2 IsIimi2 \(115311211s12 bits Ivi1a1iIsup nisido

'21itiuo 2jdi3wnwob isth upind31 noiXsmi1 laudoi

is is (assb uosq bnbivib o13s) nibrn1 IIsi',o UfI srft 1aibni 2jtIj21 dl

r11woi r1id 3r11 nirdi3wnwob 10 niisnimit3 .anoitsvdo mI1x3 'd ns,iib IIsiiisq sI iuosq bnbivib wol ii1n, di1o viji2n2 woll ritso 1n3miavni btsmi1 ,di ubi eis-rrrifl

d b3nialdo £0o xsmi1e di o Isi1nbi byi13fl, ti dT ..0 bits 0.0 nwbd 01 31qm52

21 wofl rks didw io1 2noirnv1sdo di is a3t1T lmIfl iuosq diii bnis1iano3nu ii,ril ,oI wi 2ibu12 id1o rsdi titqmi niu1 ni sidT .Qbo 1nm1,u2sm2im r11 rliiw b,jsbno d or 'bIiI iorn

no aIiIqt Iqrnsx iot -- srsi r11woi ni 2Iibuo Isi1ni,1Iib iIliw lqmssd1J2 oini titiiii 1102 Isili

(1253 no ini3ff1o3 01 3nThb s 3nibniI biswol basid d 'sm -- toitsi 1uosq bn,bi',ib bus S12

.wofl

w aiIuai Isnoi1a,-oia ft nisIqx Ion ob 2w-rrniI dtwoi r1id (1j iesxino it!

.nisldo

a . . noi1sup i,1u3 rI1 2U 01 21 9to rn,m,luas,msim fj t,ibbs 01 'sw Isnoitibbs nO

biidW bits qsdssA bindduH bits (1QQI) iii1M bits bno (QI) b1idW 2 .cl3solqqs

noiissimixsm Isioqmh1ni its to znoilibno3 l5blo Jailt ih 232r t131ib rIosoiqqfi tinT .(QQI)

11qo1q i,uIw tnorjsvisdo rb us b1si1t,vni w niJitiaIo bivsG to noi1aue s niwoIIoq ni tsiani nii sas3 ,t,dj lo Itom ni m Init £ fl bIduob nidi iom Uwmqiup bus rnslq

r3ubolq e'nmiI th iot bnsmb rIi iliod ni wt nbbut s d usvnb nd vsd or aIs,qqs ln,mit,vni aliIoiq mu bus

tiit3uo a20l isnirnib Oi nin13s Isiiini its snmoh,q ATAT2 d b1nmIqmi bodim eulT ' tnoiisifl i,du!-I A8QI) LI d bbaue sa tnnohq nsdi bus tUIsV nifls12 ,ifiIU3IB3 01 loilq

.123up51 noqu IdsIis,a 315 a1Iuai 3dT tnoiisl3ii 1di,wid d b3woIlol

Page 27: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

d b1rimIqmi 'Itsiq1 i ii .9th inm1uem di ,iiup,i ton ob ur1i bn m3Idolq

mbnid 21 ini1i2no3 i&li ir1bdw nuti bxw 3nEnfl Imix rio )nifiliano3 auonsox its ni2oqml

.aitnuI to quoi 151031115q c ioI

rnst r1i itt tinIsU2flo3 Iai3nSfIfl lo ,3t1,23tq rjj iabb 01 bn1 ia1 noiisup i,1u3 i1T

wol thto t2om isrft nibnft iuo n,vig nihsuq 21 idT .bur2 3W srinfl bnbivib woflo

rr3iIqx, its st ion ob io1idi bns anaoi1 Ismix io Ismini oX 22332 vsd trmiI bn3bivib

noiisup iIu3 di ol ailuti iuolo 2nThudo1 ,rii 3loIqx3 3W 223I3(ü13V*X .XnislitnO3 10 timil

r11 bbom tii3iIqx3 oriw (1QQ!) iirIM bris bnoB 'd btu rbsoiqqs r1i niwoI1o1 '11 23231

ni223131 23vIovrn noi1s1nm,Iqmi Is3niqm3 iirfT .nsnfl Isni1x bn 1ni,1nI nwid niXtX bris ,b,isupt idb bits woEI (1253 23Isa isupa all bns in3mia',ni bst no ln3mXa3vni

.231311oq bn,bi,ib Xni,1lib riliw armil aaois lniThb at woit rks no 1n3131113o3 rI3 idiHw

3122(1 iuo molt 320(11 03 aiIua, 1631103b1 bvi1siiIsup nisido w rbsoiqqs aigll in3m,!qmi w ri,iIW

ias,I as ui1nbi ,w amill r1i iidM bits bnofl 01 2110231 d1 OX is,inoD .Iloils3fli33qa

.210313111303 Xat1i11 ,rii Xidiiix b3niallano3

\n0nit'H tfl010i02 %'3itt 00 7O I%it% t niniIqa bw bbiw laom di to 1iIids ,iti Xuods aiduob 2U0032 32121 aiIua31 iuO

ni 133113 all bns woll (1as1o ln3Xno3 IsnoiXsm1o1ni 3(11 n33w13d d2iurn12ib hqoiq or 61131113

niniIqa b3is3itairIqoa iom idto 13(1134w 2fl15ffi31 noiia3up 3(11 .21fl15132003 I513ft11fl11 ni1siIIs

- noilqmuaas I1 noqu 2,1151 ,i,'wod oa ob ot non3ln3 (1302 'ns to lilids r1T .02 ob ns sh3Xi13

1iñ1iana wofl rIas3-ln3mia3vni ,dilstll-- 3tulsl3liI Is3iliqm3 ni1eix3 ,rlllo Xaom ni i3ilqmi-

.aXmsilanoo lsiansnll 1111w (IIs3inoXonom 2326313fl1

siom SIS Isdi amill rIw 2002631 ,f11 lassl 15 sis 315111 ,bsioni lIsiq'1 duodlIA

.3inolonom-non qidanoilsisi sdi niLsm aSUivillan32 wol hsIu3ii1sq lidirix, 1dim bsnisllano3

.1351 III isis armil bsnisliano3 '(Ilsi3nsnht mo (I) 'Ii 3rnoionom sd Ion Iliw 23111 Viliansa SdI ,laiiI

bno3s2 .b3nisIl2no3 j3s'1 ni s1s ammil bsnigtlano3nu (I1si3nsnh1 iuo (ii) bna ;bsaasmlaib IIsi3nsnhI

s 113u2 3Xsi3n3 1153 2niys2 1snoi1us331q1o miol s 2216ioqlo3ni Isdi Isbom IsioqmsJiini ns

Page 28: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

ni'tibomIo di Ii shfi 111w sirivirin1o rrIflsq 3iflOrOfloffl-flon s Ilsni1 .rnflsq

w woIlo1 Icriw it! .t1ii1 315 borlz wofl (1253£ 03 2noq21 lii 2,1Wibn3qx Isliqs3 b3nnzlq

.2310231 I5fl0t3332-22013 1Uo nisIqx3 1153 323dflo (itE idMdw 3loIqx3

ii vi3srnr1s 323111 to tiil 31l1 Mill z3fl2 bluoik w l3v3wod nib333oiq iohE1

'I1si3nEni1 ol blimil 21 '(li3inoioflom-flon 3d1ll owl 13(1103111 mciii 2flOiM3iIqmi 1n31flib

31263 £ 26 \(liviii2n32 wofl kso-1n3m323v111 di u 03 3rsmirigl 'IIsirn3oq 21 31 rmi1 b132ib

.1qmse 3d3 moil brsnimib is 2rmiI b3213.ib 'lI5i3n6nul Miii b3bivolq 2311151121103 lBi3nsniflo

Ii iIlJ3fflIb iom ibum ,ioI,rl1 ,bns ,vi26'n,q 3lom ibum 21 m,Idoiq 3111 ,23253 owl 131110 3111 nI

.3mo3i3vo or Idioqmi ion

t31%l %003 UO3 mit1k .t . woll d253-rn3m1vni wol lidirlx3 111w 21m11 b32I12ib (IIsr3nsni1 Isill ,ldi2uslq 211l

d263 lsnoiiibbs 320 ol 2tolib3l3 211 d b331o1 d udim miii invIoani ns Iqmax ioI .i3ivi1i2n

li',i3iamie d1 ubi 111w Ii126a3a5n 2i11T .e,tulibn3qx3 153iq53 iol nsili ir1isi id3b 'sq31 01 wofl

b3nis112n03 26 Ii225I3 3w 2mlit 3(1111 211ua31 100 nislqx3 bluow 2iIIT .wofl dasa oi 3n3mi2vni 1o

26 1i22sl3 3w amiil d1 bits baUaib IIsianani1 3aS1 ni ic b,11i512211o3 di22oq bits

.b3nisIMnoa las1 ni is b,nisi1.noaau

is-mii1 d 23112i1333615d3 miii 2ln31q E IdsT .rn3mugls 21(11 311i131 II bits E IdoT

3(13 l21iI .203612 Isiansnil 3lqm62 1t613v0 'd 2ai12113336161I3 rn-ill 21n,iq 11 Ids3 ;2u1512 Iiansnil

is' dt ni Ii sqi iuudl 13(1361 sd3b iid1 5313fli am-ill rsnft arsaibni £ 3Idsulo moflod

1SI1I 30Th Idgim 3110 riguodlls bnoa,2 .bnisilanoa b3inihb 10 'bj1iI ldi2aoq 25 m3111 ui26sIa

E 3Id61 ,(QO. I lo 3S13lO3 123131ni nsib,m) b3aa3llaib 316 ais-itni1 b3ni6lianoa 'lblinul3b 3(11

ia3l3ini nsib,m) ais-rmi1 b,niziianoa b1iI 3(11 ioI 3283 d1 Ion Idsdoiq al ii isrir swoda

osib,rn) ais-rrntI b3nisllsnoa Idi22oq 3111 ioI sa ,d1 Ion biinibb bns (18. to 3513VO3

w ennll boiiq 3Iqrn52 3111113 3113 1,vo Mdi awoda 11 Idsl biidT .(O41o gsivoa 123133111

1311311 26 IieasI 3w arrnil 26 '((11183(1 25 '(bismixolqqs 316 b3ni6lJanoa '(Idia2oq 26 'uiaal

ivo b3223132ib 26 &miI b,nisilanoa '(bAil d1 3dhaa3b 03 3Id6no26nu 2111 ,'(IIsnuI .b3nislIanoa

as:

Page 29: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

I is c13 isth 1381 3111 3iiqa3b (5$ J1o 33613V03 23t3lfli nsib3m) boil3q 3Iqrnal tiIrr rfJ

2mlfl b,i2ib Bnhrnit, or b3bn1ni 9l-I1 iI ni .quoi owl irIJo dl imift 11613vo r1iId

.,Iqms2 113111 molt r1iwoi aIs Ii 3viIEg3n 1Iaivo diiw rnFt b3bu13x3 I1i3ilqx, 'r11

%03t0 9103 %UV9'( LnI01W.03 10 %2%1 ..t . -non n Ibom 1aioqmn3ni n Isdi ior!3 ni boo3eibnu i II duod1IA

2ith bioni 8v511 anoilsin8m,Iqmi Is3niqm, l2om iiivi1i2n, woll d253-ln8rnll8Vfli 3inojonom

lsnoilibbs isi,n, b3nis112n03 iv 318 18th 2m11 nr1w ,1,bom s rbua ol nibo33A .1ilidi22oq

limit ni1W Ii 3vni nsrll irI1si 2no31 lsnoi3us381q iol Ii bmod ol biab 'sm (3f1i woFt des

k83 lsnoilibb8 di1o Ibm bnnsrI3 'rfl 2b33n 1snodus331q 1n31u I 3v6r1 3id ,b3nisilbno3 316

3vibnoqb3inu 3d 111w In,mjb,vni 1),nis,ibno3nu IIsio1 3m rmit nc1w l1sni1 .3n,mavni ot wofl

.woft rks3 lnoi1ibbs 01

3jo3ibni bnoilsIumia aiM .ioivsdd aith a,3sT3n3 didw bbom s zina,tq (Q1) aoiD

io1 3q33x3 b3nIsllano3 aaI 3mo33d armit as 3as133b 111w (1ivi3ian32 wofl IIas3-in,mla3vni rIi isril

-miii 1331131 b3ilivilibn3b bns anoilsIumlb 3111 32U53,8 .b,aa,llbib IIsi3nsnuI laom 3(11 315 1ri1 arnill

b,i1is,ilian,a 1n,iThb 1,V rlliw 3m11 13',O 233n512mu3113 1n3131t1b fil 3d ns nit rns ii1 2Th

is 01 1S3\ molt

,d bluonla bns a3viliboq noi12 moa 25(1 bbom Isloqm3I133ni 8111 36113 AnidJ w r1uor1ilA

IMoqm3il3Ini 31111131(1W flu 2SW IS18V32 315 id1 how Is3iliqm3 3iuklt ni flOulfl3llB iom n3',i

bblqmo3 lsrlJ iIqmi bbom Istoqm,fl1ni r13 jiii .biIua,1 iuo 1111w 1n312i2n03 Ion 21 l,bom

iol '(iivilibn3b 3113 1asI1no3 ni .O13 01 32o13 21 isrIl (iivi1i2n32 £ woik 111w am-nnit b3nisllbno3nu

21 builT .OtO b1smixoiqqs ai Q Ids31o (I) noia23ii ni z,s,-miu1 (DIV) b3nisTlano3 125,1 iuo

3n11 as (IIsi3nsnit 13ls,r1 as mqqs bm3-nnil D111 di 15113 1381 r11 (111w ,1u3no33I 01 lIu3itiib

.1ivitiana wol s woila 113111w Hl ni aimil b3nIsllbno3nu

lo b3uliviIian3e wolI niasa Inmiavni 3(11 Isili b3lsaubnl Q Ids1 ni () noIa23I31 bnoa2

li builT 013S (llsi1n3223 3m ig uoiviq i1l ni bnigiianoa io bnisdanoa (l3)Iil 313W 18111 bnnhl

m1o ninni3d1o) tE.O 03 t.O moil -- lIsi3nsIadua aivoa,i woIl 1125318111 n3yi nubnq1ub

Page 30: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

•biow irUo ni .rmil hnisIi2no3 iol ô.O ol O.O- mofi bris 2rTnhl bnis112no3 b(iI ,ol (Inqs3

,is niwolIol rfi ni bnis1ino3 aI rl3um is m 1Joiviq r1i ni b,nislizno3 313w isth 2rmil

.iiili1ian2 woll th63-in3ml23vni wol vsrI 1 oiD riliw thbo is 332 ains1 iI1isI1nO3 lBi3nSflhl 11z13v0 iol ?J(U31 3126d wo ,lIsrii1

3d 111w a3iiiiiian lLsivo d1 Mdi 23ilqmi bbom Isi qm3J,3ini 311T .l3bom Isloqm3rl3ini

b3nia1ino3 Idioq 3d1lo 1ivfiin IIBl3vo 3dT a iviiiana m-rrniI th1o asi3vs b3idi3w

Idsi ni aJluai 3rD 32u833d armil b3nisiieno3nu 3rlflo Miii lsup3 hdguoi bluorla 1oh13r11 armit

3rlflo leom i3vo b3nisliano3nu 313w amilt aorffli n,v b3nislsano3 Ldiaaoq as arrnit IiaasI3

.boil3q 3Iqmsa

.nonxi ioiaibni niblaim £ d hdim Ji,iJiana woft das3-in3miaynj di 'r1w noaai Isrii A

ni aiuribnqx Iiiqs3 b3ruuilq ni'€uibom lo 1203 amufl a a,oni Ii larD ai anisIlano3 lSi3nsnuI lo

bna qoib woll daai a 233fl3113qX3 miii a ni1w ,3lqmax3 iol .Aaoda woft lias3 £ 01 anoqa

wn 3111 ol 'l3iaib3mmi 23luiibn3qx3 Inhiqa3 ub5! 01 3Idsw 3d 'cam ii b,niailano3 a3mo33d

aaw Jail mills iot 3263 dJ 3d bluow ainli ngIanj iol .n1in1 316 21203 in3miaulb&Ii 13v31 biIa,b

3(11 abnuod,i n3nIJ mill b3niaIianoa isnlflo woll (1263 rftt1 .'iois1 wn a nibliudto ,lbbim 3rD nil

,UflhiniO3 01 baioI nd Ion bail ii Ii ,vanl bluow Ii nan aa3I d lud 1n3mi23vni 2a313ni 111w nmit

di ubi Iliw n-ii1aq ainiT .C101361 3n11 nui,lqmo3 ,..i -- b3nialIano3 asw Ii ridw nuiavni

b3nisllano3 1313f1 316 IsnIl amiil mmii b3niaIiano3 ioI iiviiiana woft nlas3-tn3mIa3vrTi biuasm

.nOiiSuii ugh ni u,vImm,dl bnfl iv,ri Iluw

nil woll dm63 li3diIo o\°èE1o naib,m s 1a,vni mmiii noiisnIaIqx3 aith niliw In,IaianoD

ia-miuI niwollo1 nhI nil aia-miiI b3nijniano3 I3liI bna b3n13iimno3 nil a3wlibn3qx3 Isliqs3

b3niallano3 ion bAiI bits b3niaIiano3 ion iii 12a1ino3 nil .o\0OI Io naibm a 123vn1 mmiii ,maa di

nhl ni ;awiibn3qx3 laiiqa3 ni woll dm63 ii,nlllo è8 1o naib3m £ 123 vfli mmiii mia-nnl1

.o\°t8Io naibm a la3'ni amiil 31T152 nfi ,iB3' niwolIoI

b3nisiiuno3 ldiaaoq .irsm3Idolq ia i3v3wod aia-nrnil b3nialtano3 Idiaaoq 3rIT

8

Page 31: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

Iiiqfi3 UI woII rkaa ii,dJ to o\01 to nnibm n nhievni 2rmit rijiw nwbd ni 1161 2m-mii1

01 llu3rnib ii .o\°8'1o asib,m S ie,vni amiil ms rii 'is' niwoIlo1 jj ni ;e1wibnqx3

iol iivilian woft -tnrnhivni two1 di boil w Isdi 1361 rlt dliw rnflsq airli 3113003,1

.boiiq ,1iia di ivo b3rlisliano3 '(Idiaaoq as b3iuiaasl3 armit

ion aob ivi1i8ri,e woft ras-1n,m1avni di Isdi — ainsmugIs owl lasi ,rll i1uor11IA

180013332-22013 100 rnaIqx '(I3bIqmo3 Ion ob — 2jniSfleno3 Isi3nSnhl rijiw '(IIs3inol000m 3a8313n1

ainmus adi Isdi ,v,iIcf ol noas, on ai idT .oa gniob 01 aa,ioiq moa 3)lsm 'r1i ,ellua,i

das-in,mla,vni r1i1o au dl no ,,,obitb 1duob lsnoilibbs 1283 'dT .Iqmsa iuo ol 311i33q2 318

.Iqmsa '(lIE 01 23rn11120o3 181306011 lo nbiv, as 'eli 1iana woft

00 '1U0l0%

:anoi1siIqmi lsiva ,su1 anibnit iuO

Ion 28ob woil das 01 In3rnle3vni lo (liviIien3a 13IE31 lisril 3la3ibni aiIuai 3r11 ,iairI

.3308011 IsmIx bns lam1ni n33wbd 3203 Isijn3l3Itrb isI 6 lo nbiv, ,ldsil,i 3bivoiq

ln,i,Thb 'i,' oh armil i,d1oI niquo-i1o I3,T3 di asri aoilas Iuo'(sq bn,bivib '(d nifloa

b3nisliano3 lasI di 2111 IsrIl ball w Iqmaa Juosq bn,bivib wol 100 nI .2noiliaoq 161308011

ni a33n313Thb di viib bns '(ii',ilian3a woft d263-ia3mi28vni 1adir1 di lididx, Isdi armit

a,3n5,,llib '(d n,viib '(II6insq d ol isqqs 23i1ivi3iana lsiln,i,Thb i1T .aquo1 220136 '(liviiian,a

Isril ai,qsq aod1 flI 31038 '(IIaIu3inBq ai m,Idoiq airli 133q202 W .aquoi 220136 23181 d1woi oh

di oh 233n313Thb ,o1 niI1oIjno3 avH .nol,1n3 nihoa a as oilai Iuo'(sq bnbivib dt io asia au

rIi no alduob 1263 anibai1 iuo ,a3ilinuiloqqo 1n3m1avni io'l a3ixolq woll r12s3 113111w 01 1n31x3

ad11o dio8 .aInisliano3 Isi3asrIil dliw '(Iivilian3a wolt d263-in3nlia,vni rIl1o '(ii3inolonom

01 2U01 220136 ,i1ivili2n32 Isiini,Thb 232u Isdi how 2u0i,,iq noila3up 01011163 ,anibn1t

'(,viua ,au '(,fIT .iulsi1iI noilqmuano3 rII lol tIu2.i islirriha s nisido (QQl) .Is 13 ilbqqsL r1I lo 1ri,iq OI osdi '1Dm lath bail bas ai:muano to auisia 181308011 Iai di 'ui1nb1 oX sisb

.b3nisIlano3rw ,1361 oh r1iIsw no nifloa '(ci b,nisuano3 as bi1iaasIa aIsubiibni

Page 32: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

.2iniaU2n03 IBi3flaflfllO 3fl21 r1i 'u11nbi

laioqmJiini boa mo nrniwba rlflo noilarüdrno3 3O2 Jarli AmrIi w ,Iirlw bno3,

ob w 1ivi1lana wofl rIa3-1nrnmvni wol a 3varl arnifi bnia1iano3 iuo '<nw ni.nlqx na aLbom

iuo ioI din1 oa 21 '<flvi1iarI2 wolt f12a3-1nmIavfli ,di '<nlwto nibna brw bIqrno3 £ var1 on

<xorq ol '<b1iI morn ai wofl rtaa 3in1w anoila'rnado ianirnib w ndw niv3 am-nit bnia1mno3nu

.'<livili2na diu1 a vanl acmit bnianieno3no lath bolt Ilila w ai1ir1ufloqqo 103mlavni tol

ni2oOr13 atansrn '<d nvI-ib d ol iaqqs ailiviii2na wofl r1aa-lnmlavni n1inl ,nlT

.abnul lao3 wol lanoilibbalo '<ilidaIiava di 1iqa,b 1avni 01 wofI daa3 Iarnini no '<Iiiarnitq '<Ii 01

lui airli wollot ol iaqqa Iqmaa tuo oh armit b3niallano3 maI boa Ink ,ua '<I1airnanit morn n1T

lonrtaa ,w rarli — noiia,up '<,1 nlT .'<iivilian,a woit i1aa-ln,m1a,vni n1irt a 1ididx ,o1,idl bna

luIoada na 01 b3nialiaflo3flhJ ,ia am-nit bnianjano3 Iaal aodi n,ttl,nlw al —

'<lnhafl3 tliiw iwana

.1!ua,i aidfto anoi1ai31qnifli 1n3Thb '<nov 01 aba1 nOilaup ir1J 01 1wans fIT mna

tidl ana 1uloada na ni b,nis,Iano3rw bbni ,,ia arrnit bnialiano3 taaI iuo ti

to a3ior13 ,aiva Aaii '<113v0 10 lanoilani rh aa b11qi1ni d na3 ar3iIoq 3nl3asnuI \ 1n(nj2yni

d3idw ni ,Iut Iaioivarbd a to mo3iuo ,dl aa bbnp31ni d nao oats '<r1T .a1anarn bta,n1ni-tba

au Ii ,lu, £ ri3aJa wollol 1c1irn rn-nfl A .daa3 nhla13n,g ia <rii n3rlw '<lob iavni armit nior

Idaiovit ll3ua ibnu '<mo lavni 111w oniw ardad noiaanqb fluidl '<h,vo ia aiganarn

.aana12rnu31ia

ana taioqrn1ilni moa oh bniailanoa ia aimfi b,niailanoo IaaI ril Ii '<bvi1arn1lA

to 3iorI3 gniirnixam riIsv rhi aa biiqi1ni cf na ai3iIoq ni3nanfl \ in,rrnla3vni iidl nd1

,1oV .iuiiit ,nil ni bniaIiano3 '<IIai3nanhl nirnodIo 21203 Isiinloq anti no baad aianarn

-- ai3iIoq lsi3nanit ,vitavl,ano3 aoorb lath arniul moa lath a,nlqrni noi1a11q131ni aidi i,'worl

Ia ,13a1 ni ia b3niaUanonu '<1wona1oqm1no3 iaqqa boa — 23fnaIad daa3 n1hrh dliw rdb wol

noilaup 0101 21153 ,nhlw1 noila3ithlaup a d3ua nirq333A Ion ob lath armit aa bnianiano3 aa laaI

b3niaIianoa '<Ilai3nanit ti1oabi ol aiailoq IsI3narnil no baad aiili13 iioilq a au lath aibula aonI1

.arnfl

anoi1anaIqx ath gnoma daiuni1aib ol lqmfls how iulnfl Jan11 lnalnoqmi ama II

Page 33: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

Iq1nEx io1 .nib ,iJnni bnfi I6noiuiiJani ml 2noii$3ilqmi 3!IOq Iq2ib iidilo au3d

1i nrD anisI1ano3 3luiuito 1i!idi22oq di 03 zrtoqi Iamilqo di ai inis111-lllo iuoa rftli

bluow m!doiq nollElmolni iuiiiI 3itiIft nv hull i1ib3fmlni tEi3nnuI lo 3fl321 hnhno3

io noi21va kii VI23X ai 3uiu,i-lblo ,iuo rliui fvdsrnhtA ,'iiviiin, iiIj 3ub1

lnmnsm ni ,n&t3 d boubi d lIi3nioq n 3ivi3in rl3 nrl1 Iui lioivtbd

.2mrl3 noihsnqmo3

ei3iIoq larli 3ua iIui iuo bIorl znoilnalqx rtilo r13 ,rtw 'lo Inbnq,bni biirlT

mii1 'rj rn,mjvni bni 01 b,l ion 111w noj'i ni kjIivR iom bb13 oh b,nib

noqei ni 1nrnh2,ni iidJ ub'i emiil HT .'Oivihi2n wofl rl2B3-hnmhvni 1rlid rll riiiw

.thnu1 Isrnix bna lzni1nilo 3ilidsIi',a 3n11u3 rl3 3iqeb woft r1. iooq 01

rl31a1 iuO .no Iaiolobortbm B 21 1qEq iuolo flOiiB3iIqmi IBnil bnB rlnuol dT

ns 2B Ibw a rIiai ni3aix ni nLaw i lnirl3 w hBdw iuo lnioq ahlui bnB nib .rioibrnado 33,lib iom r1uoirli brnst sd flB3 tsb 1i A .rl311 iu3iiI iol '3inufloqqo

Page 34: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

,3fl,1t5l

w*1) Iu2ot3aiU bus nhJnuo33A Z3o loodbnaH ,1Q! iIIiW uI bus usIIA ,nsrrnfiA (inornsj ,msrhoD ,nnsW :IioY

iorsi,bA Isi3nsnR edT" nimo3rthol isi,tbliO nomi bus ,iIfl,D 1isM ,nimstjiH Ansnifl .iraiis1 bris a3imono33io w,iv$i iiIsuQ ol JrfiF1 ,dT bus

bnsrI di ni bud rIT bus 3IIoq bnbi,ib noi1srmo1ni 1hqmF' QQI otqibu s'isrIasflsrtU niuq 3imono33Io IsmuoL IbB 'sIII

oci mui1 oU srtW QI i,uiId iubnA bus nsIi-b-sqoJ oi3usloFI ,iiviIO busr13nsI .imono33 IsinsniTIo IsniuoL IIstbniW fksD riliW

Isi3nsniI rrniI rfi bus sbboM 3nrnisvuI imsn'(T QQl uirIM esrso) bus rtdcpi bno8 ibu imono b wiv$l '3iIoq

3nbw3 :ffimJvuI bus usniI Isrri1nI nimo3rtho1 ,bisdduH nnI€) bus a1isrO 2himoIsD .ui2uH1o Isinuol !-QI lo xsl sfftoi budhiibnU ,rft mofi

Isnoi3-eo1D bus 1oqm11MFbo is'IsnA nA' ,8Q! ,iisdio)I .2 bus !insG niIloD bus niinuo33A o Ismuo1 ni3iftoD anoqa$I uuns3 1o 21usuimibU

.I81-.bI I1 3imono33

ailduq bus Ansalo toM IouinoD dT :,uiu,1 IsiiqsD 1suoqioY IQ1 ,asluoU bnomsiG bnomrbi$J bo AnsH t,s2 IsubI 3qu1nsfl IisoD bus exsT rtiiw dU

.(I13J1sLJQ 3imono

bus JnjsüuoD ni3usuiF 88I ns,3i,q mfl bus busdduH nnIO $1 ,u,v,12 iisxsI .Q!-1 1ivioA 3irnono33 no aiqs snbIooi8 nrnt.,nI Js1oq1o)

ni woII d2sY lo Io5! di iol 3nsbiv3" ,tQQI gudbmmiH hsdD bus uorni 12iurktiO .2uomvoiY1o busoa is51 !s,ub,1 u,qsq nbhoW iusmx,',nI

bus 2noit3h,qm1 noi1sm,obiI t8I aiW wubnA bus siiIgi Hqao uiH b1swniD w,iv$I 3imono33 ns3i1mA auoijBu33ufl imono3ou3sM

,miI bnisui2noD ibiupiJbo 2noisio3U gni3nsniI bus n,ui1vnI rIT" Q1 ,bivsU 2o1D .olontbTIo 1uiiian1 afl3auf13ssM iqsq niAioW

1si,susM bus iuini Isi3usni1 3lsuoqioD 8Q1 nsH uviIO bus biotus ,nsmeoil) uisnnu bus nojj&mojni b 2:)imouo dT JISD3M t.L :ni 2i1u,3nI

.(JI os3idD os3idYbo ivinU) 2misID bisHbo IoM dflo islsuA nA :iioins2 bus Q1 ,uooM urIo bus ivilO flsH

X wsi2 3imono33 nsiusmA usm,gsusM niuisiienoD ni

vir33q21 noibiaiU ISiiS*snsM A :,tubirti IsiiqsD IsmilqObo iuoriT EQ! iviIO J-isH .(uoilurixanl niAooufl ,rfT :DU uoniiksW) bsU IsG ,iiT uiI8 NI ui

noisb1q1s1uI Is3j25sbo,4 A p sivA bus p LsuigsM 2nidoT' 8I oirnuI idssH s3ni,mono3

bus 'ibiupiJ uuIuU 1suoquoD" !QQ! ,uisiIisd2 bivsCl bus ,qsrks)I linA o,lsT iiIoH ôO I 3imono33 b IsnuuoL IiisuQ s3sU Ins'I ,nsqs1 mofi 3fl5biv3 :1nm1vni

Page 35: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

.Oô-EE

1o irn,iijfl IBnoiiM iIoI IE1noM iol 'bnndD 3ib3iD' t idT ei' Q1 ,nnID .51 bisdduH qsq niAioW ,ri3SL 3imOflO31

rmi1 bn rii1 IminI Qf biidW knoT bus qsuIas1 liriA jui,ID .51 btsdthiH .V ni)lnsa bus ibiD noM1o larnuol JnmivnI

,ivoisT bus nsni1 isioqioD woR iizsD i1 lo oD nA Ô8Q1 .bsrf3iM nnI .Q-EE ,ÔV wiv$1 imono3H ns31mA

ioivsd8 IsnsnsM :m111 sft1o ioriT sIT ltVQ1 •nib13M msilliW bus Lsd3iM nnL imono3 Isi3nsniq 10 lsnwot 1w3un qukinwO bnA 12OD 3f1A

21ni51jno3 'ribiupiI o1 nü2T" Q1 bIuo asIo3iM bus ,A3ziq rift1-niot oiIIuT iIIqqsL TIM ,iqsq niAiow aaiuoa s:sb tsffimIqmo3 rthw noisup3 131u3 ni

1siI3O ,rll bus anoiiibnoD ib,iY 1QQI ,ni 'm,iI. bus inomsj n,wO jinA qs'ks4 .EQ-à OI 23imono33lo Ismuol 'Ii3nsuQ iiorrivuI1o ioivsd8

lo Ioorl nobuoJ iqsq niAioW 1D JibY QI iooM nclot bus oiidudo4 i1s3oi)I .23rmono33

1AisM ls1iqaD IaninI molt nbiv3 :JnmiavnI bus woI thaY nwO ,lnomsJ .iiivinU fl0j3flf1q iqsq uthoW

Ismuol ,noismio1ni 3iIjmmzE t,bnu 3iIoq bu,bjviQ 8QI IoR niv,A bn norI3M 13!IiM .lOI-IOl,Ot risni11o

D3 bnslth(..1 aiqooD rlT EQQI isumiU no2I4 bus iAaU msiIIiW bIsno51 ,'wrtuM .(IlsH 3i1n1q w*) IsurisM

,3nsmTIO IsrnuoL tsu iu,3Ijija Jsiqs r1T •I8QI rtswr tM ndw anoi2iU tnm1vnI bus ninsni1 1sioqioY S8Q! 1uIjM 5IorI3iV bus t1sw3

Isi3nsniTto Ismuot vsH o4 oa io1,vnI isrb noitsrmolnl ssH crnFI I-V8I Ei23tmono33

Inm1vn1 22ni2ua iol rt31s1iH 8ninsniI iii1o auor QI .O rbeudbu2 bus 2 ,3iiaii5t bus 3imono331o wiv5I

Is3niqm3 nA p nidoT1o 2noiiIn12noZ) 3viismIA QI IiW tij,nu,A bus nv1 I tE- I I nsniI Isaniqm3 lo IsmuoL jtoiisqmoD

rio i,qsq ni)Ioo18 bus ,bsciduH ,hzsssl no affimmoY 88QI ,rnst sdio .IO-OO 1iVi13A 3imono33

23imono3H 1513u8r111 lo Ismuot 1ut3u11 IstiqsD bus noii312iQ tsiisnsM" OQ I ,n,5I sILfl

ibsoiqqA iorIT 9 A :ln,mis,vnl sioqioD bus uoisxsT I8QI ariiwsJ irumu .VI-V j iiVfl3A )irnono33 nioo

iq molt 3fIbi'l3 :trtmivnl sioqioD bus 1nisinoD 'ribiupiJ JdU QQI inoT biir1W ousniTto Ismnuot sJsc1

Page 36: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

2 25

C

C

— ,

C

2 ii — C C

fl

C

4=

;, .3

5

.5

C

w—

>- a

n .

C

C

S

:4

C

5 .5

.3

=

C

5ff,

C—

- F

• —

.3

,_

S

- .—

I, S

3

.3

_3

Cr

S C

C

—c

; —

C

I -

52 .; 4,

c —

C

N

.5

W

CC

.C

3 C

- n

—n

cC)

CC

3-

C

C

; I ill

,, C

'—

4 •

=

rr

S

. g;

N

C

C

.c "

iij'Ii

II

JI1l

1iIr

1f1l

l1t!

iiIll

)

-C

-3

C .0

-C

C

C- -3

1!flh

I ii

flfl

flfl

flfl

flfl

fl

flflfl

flflfl

flflfl

t; fl,

flnfif

lflfif

lOfif

lflflf

innn

O

t °°

°°°°

,-,,I

,°-,

°'

•2

0 0

0 00

00

0fifi

o0r,

,nnn

nnnn

00

0 45

0

t: fl0

fl0flf

lflflf

lfifln

0flfl

flnflg

-

flfifl

fl0flf

lfl00

0nof

lnon

nn

; flf

ltJfl0

flflfl

flflfl

nfl0

nfl0

fl

S

°°°0

0000

0°0f

lflflf

lono

n

;iflfl

fl9;in

flfln

°0flf

inO

flflfl

fiflfl

n0flf

lfln

0000

0000

0000

0000

0nn

, I it

finn

',',

——

0000

0 ii ef

l 00

mb'

, ii ;f

lfl

0000

0 non0

0000

finn

oofl'

,

0000

0

0000

0 fin

e)

fl 00

0

fl fi

;;4fl

fl

',0nn

no

on nf

lflf

l flf

lz

fli n

on

noon

0

noon

n

no

non

non

on

n no

ff00

000

0

fin

0

finn

on

flfl

nnfl

nnnf

lnoO

flno

n

flnn

flnn

0000

0n00

000n

0000

0 00

0000

000

n 00

000c

m

0000

00

flfl

nnon

nnon

no

nonn

onno

0',n

0fin

n 00

000

0000

0000

0f

f0fln

0 0 0

0

0000

0000

00n0

00

0000

000

O

00

0 nO

n 0 on

no

on

nOon

no

on

Page 37: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

I IdsT 2tIu1 bus bisdufl .iisus1 dji#' Q bns ,,ofl no Irr',,,;,,IrIJ lo noi22111o no?i1sqmo

bns OVQI moil .(88Q1) qI-fl drIols3n,rI (88I) bus bisdduH .iiss1 moil srmfl bn,bivib-wol i ) but; nofl iIn no tn,mj,vni lo uoi221,$I tsnibiositx ,iobd snitns,io mus jIi eIsup wofl tksJ .(8I m,Ii TATtJ9MO)) 21lJtibn,qx3 IsIiqn 2i JnjtrIIIruI 9111 ui JJI;IflIJ oJ bmqmo 8I

w rbirfw (1,A) Istiqs is 10 ninni,d 'd b,jsfl,b ,is wofl dss bus In,mjs,ynl .( I ur,ti TAT2UMO) noi:stnpb but; ( I rm,Ii TAT2U9MO) m TAT2U9MOD) sisss1o ,ulsv lood ,di 'd b,bivib sI,ss1o ,ulsv blism ,di lsup Q (8 m,Ii TATUqMO)) ln,mqiup bus .tuslq vn,qo1q bn s ,nihb

bot nomrno3lo uIsv lood rU1o mus dI ,I boI nornmo3lo ,ulsv ihsm dt siilq Isss1o ,ulsv lood ,di Istip 2II22c1o ulsv AisM .(ô m,i ioi,, bisbnst is, bus b,xil imil bubni snoias,ii hA (tV m,ji TAT2U9MOD) xcJ b,ii,1,b i,,rk ,)nshsd bus ( mIi TATU9MOD)

.sb)bsld ai ,is

qin 1,qi sfF qin i,qsq irfT ITt-fl i,qsl sirfl V-OVQl -OQI V-OVl QV-OVI QV-OVI V-OPI tX-OVQI t$.OVQI 8-OVQI

ova.o t€O 8.O Of.O 8c.O VVt.O lIO OO.O E.O )I \ 1) [l4O.O] [tEO.OI [0100] (tO.Oj (0(0.01 R(o.oI LV0.01 (tO,0] [O.0)

0100.0- 1O.0 000.0 0(0.0 8000.0 Qt0.0 0 (1.000.0] [00.01 (t0OO.O f000) [t0000J [0O.OJ

.O EV.0 IV.O V1.0 Vô.0 Qt.0 ô1.0 81..0 l4.O .lbA

08 O8 .A.14 ôVt V1 .AJ4 QIV IV .ado4

Page 38: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

L09l 300 '11 SQ

1684 QO4 334 00 QI 30 618 831023 QO4 342 30 41 00 030 QI1023 QOl 342 30 30 50 030 QIlog, Il 304 QI 00 50 018 83logo fl2 301 'II 50 00 036 QIloo QIS 3Q2 lOS 30 00 212 133IO2 Q3 SQ2 30 30 50 038

263 S2Q II 00 25 L'2 133lOW 210 388 30 II 4•J 802 lOS103.2 30Q 430 143 83 II 3.3 3Q2103.4 3Q3. 38Q 133 IQ3 QI Q23 31•3.103.) 30Q 422 Q3 13 43 824 l4Q103.5 438 324 132 23 00 3.63 502183.1 323 340 13.0 103. 00 3.33 33.3.103.0 340o' 443..\° l1Oo\ 3Io\ 43è° 3.gO 3j3\O

Cou2iLSiucq CoUU!Uq CuiLg!uq C0UR!Uq Cou2uCq ouavsucq cougucqEIU9UC!lIA h!UYUc!Il UuC!9IlA hIUIJCWIIX h!UmJC!SIIA Eiu9uciII?

b0!PIA r!FI DGUUUCIA 01 r!rcl J40j 01 DGUU!CI?

r!rcl b0fl!PP rlr€lA'1.IFC IkIEC bLC lEG 14EC+fl4LC bEC+FLC+LC

cou2nsiucq (bcr l!r JiUULICi9ji coudll9iucq (rLcY uq UUwJC!sJJ? couiswcq (Ec)1824 E!LW 1!U9UC!Jl C(uIL!UI jZJlfl t cCp ?.JL gL UoI jWJUC!9llA COULL9WC (1iECY I!Icl? uo L1U8C!9II)' courL9IuGq (rilEcY bO!PlA 1UUC!9II?sD!L!Pfl(!OU 0tLIUIIJC!II OULLJiUl pt ?GJL (1L 10 oM-q!A!qcuq LIUJJ tLOW E1! Jnpps1q uq bCIU20J (iogx) pIJCCL0I4P EHb(l888? IJOW I3.0 uq

flWWü O gUUfl9 IU&UCPJ COU?IL'JtU( 2jjfl?JPJ' 3

Page 39: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

307 331 3 34 0 .Ioo 042 03.Q 0Q5 0243 0215-0033 -0132 -0020 -0400 -0423 -017203(2 0100 0(32 0040 -00(3 0(30

JuCIit.L glp 0 60 013 0 lI-S 0003 -0091 0(24

307 331 23 74 (6 310o 424 0382 03(6 0338 0302 04230031 -0031 -0(30 -0142 1332 -0021

0330 0102 0003 0 113 0016 0(88051 0120 0(37 0130 0008 0180

788 313 23 34 JO I00383 0300 0044 0030 0000 05250.000 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000155 0120 0097 0053 0000 0151

d7 \ Y 0.000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

VCt0121I!OU IC AC 363 331 23 34 (0}.LCCIIOU IU.w M!(P 0344 0541 0124 0130 0000

363 331 23 34 10 3(03321 3300 1034 3920 1380 5 1460806 0122 0303 0334 0302 0 382

1Q43 1213 1313 23.1 1103 2201313 1131 1120 1000 (085 1531

303 551 25 31 TO .1160207 0733 0450 0111 -00.19 0445-0180 -03)9 -0434 -0943 -0182 -03220(22 0033 -0082 0130 -0300 0090

(CIOP EION - I) \ V 01)0 0030 -0039 -0031 1108 0021

303 331 23 31 10 .1)0

1032 0931 1084 0238 0309 (0030300 0104 -0132 1(39 -0430 01550014 0472 0399 0101 -0043 0202

CVI' lI" \ V 0209 0720 0317 0543 0050 0451

703 331 23 34 10 316

0831 0831 0834 0000 0241 08100(20 0)20 0133 0033 0098 0(330191 0413 0420 0320 0313 0479

I\Y' 0398 0734 0320 03.13 0347 0318

' lUWr C(J JJOM 3WMJ

C0uI C0U2R C0W COUCl; CoUP:.j0(1IU .j0(iU LlW JIU

rIrcJ bOfl!PI) rWC1) bIWJ-AC112(-iJC fl1LC bEC rc EC VII

(pC 2flW 0(jJiC odonA IUITCq (0 (PC bflPl!C q go cdrnCugiou Jt8CI2

((IC SflW 0LC?lJ iuq nurlzcq IWC CPC !U ((C(I1 ! rp qiiii8 iii (PC 2(7W OLOIC poor AI(IIC OIS)i0U1CLW lU 11.0.1 gcp( Edfl!L). (CCCbiq Ofl( qIA(guqo CVP !C C21J1 1(19 W1(4CCIIpJC OCCIIUCIC? flWICC9 I" ! ((IC lwOnw0nunCCq I!UC 09 CCq!c II ((IC 01.19 0IIC1L I 2lCr 1in ob&qcucg Clocr lug gpo poop Al(flc O9COLUWOU odmA cc MC u gpo ,wonug ooczmucq C,w!u2 gp!g vic uog wicgCq Liow pciu8(EBJJ..DV)'° iU4000?gCXbCU(C Dcpg IC 1(10 7(7W OL(pC poop 11)707(1011-502W lug out-gcui qopi 1.0(11 cIbigIi IC ((JO 2(7W o9qcpr ((IC poor(vcdC) cdngsgpo ,inc obm.cpi2c lug boopu8 ,dIWJ0 uu co*coi8c go gpo LIOlD 09C1w!782 p0(9(0 !ulCIhI I1XCV lug qcbi.cciaiioubcccunc 009J bCLcCugI(c lug utIWpCL o9opacLAv000r iu CIwlug (I 012)1 jo,o d iuq cIbuhl (VI lb 9CUUC9 III (1)1(0 I VCdCIC!(!OU.1cournmuoq (bEc) lw°i2 uulueivll couwrnucg (rEd uqiuluCI1)l cOflaWcq (Ed 1C(J CUI1 &cboiz (PC WC9I1( WCIU IOIIJUUU!1) 000W.2!U1 111170 (91 Clcp Ecit lb UO( uuiucvJi cououviucg (ji3Y (tcJA uCC juiuct.p couo.alucg rcY boupiI IJUIUC!ll(IDiCfl4Pfltiou O( IJUIUCIV( AIIIIPICO P !UIIRIJ UU12C!1I COUCUI(U( 2(10(0 )0 40 100711A!qCUq tP.W2 (90W LHI, (1088) (LO(JJ 1010 iuq (694 E!LUJ

?flUIlJJiI3U 1701CC 0L IJUJI CpIIiCICUJ(iCo pX )CILA (IUIUC#ll COU2uI!0l ((11(7?jI)1JC 7

Page 40: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

337 107 38 31 19 9210934 0410 0014 0000 0529 01220000 000 000 0000 0000 Q0000554 0140 0013 0030 0049 0133

1dn!u jflC \ Y 0000 0000 0 000 0000 0000 0 000

303 55! 23 71 là 3100 318 0590 0083 1281 0051 0303

-0104 -0124 -0450 -0114 -0249 -0121o i98 0 2.2 0102 0157 0013 0101

(.p Isp' 0018 0018 0 123 0535 0013 0095

107 551 25 34 là 210

3030 1150 0053 055! I 092 19300513 0118 0020 0041 0001 0159I 340 0399 0410 0334 0150 0010

V 0332 0450 0144 0511 0550 0223

303 551 33 34 0I 003 0 533 0000 0 440 0000 0 0300000 ff000 0000 0000 0000 0000

V 0237 0113 0501 0121 0120 0112riurncq riuc \ O•550 0138 0139 0043 0035 0503

303 551 25 34 là 310flun?cq rIuc >0 0533 0925 0924 0250 0230 0983

303 55! 35 34 là1559 0209 0331 0380 0505 03840020 0074 0011 0050 0019 00330359 0523 0593 0129 0130 03940331 0130 0120 0033 0082 0198

543 30 34 50 12 4240310 0430 0058 0080 0000 09310004 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000734 0130 0013 0010 0000 0530

ICC D' \ 0508 0013 0000 0000 0000 0101

AqcUq C04CIC 307 55! 25 34 là 510

ELClIOUOiJC2 0091 0539 0493 0989 0580 0309

703 53! 35 34 là 5100 049 0053 0 038 0058 0003 00330 000 0000 0000 0000 0000 00000012 0009 0009 0003 000! 0011

D!>!U \ V 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000

303 55! 25 74 là .510

0259 0282 0920 0301 0013 0282002! 0113 0328 03W 0791 0032

C!b!ll 0503 0325 0121 0253 0951 0744DCP(tO..LOrtl 0309 0321 0131 0211 0292 0340

303 55! 25 74 là 51049355 53902 0208 9090 3833 777525349 1908 0000 0999 0000 303

CoAcLc8C 18059 533 4542 3422 1Q20 14053lU(C.I 303! 2289 4503 3879 1007 9409

0 IUIUC! blC

COLRO COUII COUU1 COUI1 COI14Ql,iU hOlE'11 ,IU IIU Is!"

bO!Pl? r!rcl I!LUZ-AcflIIEC I1-IEC EEC rc lC VII

jI9C 7 4COuPIJflcq)

Page 41: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

0301 0533 0164 0313

r08 rJrcJpooq -Q4O -Q30 -QO2

c9L qnwwuc2

10113] [oes] [O3] [o?33]Cflj- 43O ?3?3 3160

EO3?3] [oig1 [0330] loioi)Cflj 3o8 3682 3?0l 3433

[0332) [01601 [0362) [o4.2]Cflj5 3652 IRIO 3413

[0313] [0480) [o5) [0423)CflL -033 0202 -0263 0116

[ole] 1o3o) [oi] [0302]nuncq JILJC OjCLJ >0 -0.1 I -0?4. -O8 -0?I I

10311] [0353) [03 ii) [0330)CP \ K -1',04 -I60 -I2

[o1o] [0?13] [0466] [o?I3)fluLc2zLicicq 8'V EW!LJ22 \ -1 88 -I 632 - I 262 - I 6Q

[o3n) Eo334) [0313] tosss]DAqcuq gq (A=I 14=0) 1162 I3Q 14.13 1364

181o] [2134] [oo?]DA!qLJq? \ <' -33038 -318, -332?1 -30106

1oo] [0980) 104241 [o9I]DCPi \ jot Cb!&I 3011 3321 1232 1632

[0020) [oo8]03.12 03.10

[0330] [o3221 [0333) [0332)CP UOM\K -0282 -1124 0222 -0836

Dcbcuqcut t.pic ! h!13C!Vl C0U2L!UL WU12

pLcyc2couoiucq (rhc) go IjuUCi9IIA cou2u.wcq (Ec) Am.!SPIG qquitiou i.c w LSPIG2 i suq 3 iuqq COL 113

(1.lLc)' vog UUmJC!Ii) COU21LWC (r14EcY bon!PI? LWUCIIIA cou2p.JuGq (bLcY lirciA1juuciI(1688) OW 18.10 uq 1884 LIIJIJCII C P!"1 a1UR tOL CP Ai. !? OLqCLCq OW 001 UUSIJCI9IIA couu!uGqoqLq Jo8I1 OL ZJC qcgcI.wiu1iou Ot9UUTh IJ1JUCIJ COIJ2II.SWI UI OL48 Io-qIqcuq ULUJ LOW EHb

oLqcl.cq Io8 bLcqcLpiiA ouuciI COU2lLWL ?1W12LPIC 4

Page 42: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

J,10P IÔ II) 35 t40

vqi K Oo3 0340 0410 OQ

toooI IoooQl Iootai 100191 [oooQJ 1ooi1o.l 0•03o 000ô 00l O0.0 0033 O0à

ioosJ bosh EooQoJ boossi (oo) 100351

CL\K" 03ô 003 0180 0350 041O 05�O

J,lIô 1=33 14=3 1=3OCOU2LLUGq COU2iL!q couiI.ucq COUiL9!UCq

k1 bO2!PI r!rcI 4C!L \bO!pI bO!PIA \ r!IIVII

uxcq CCCI2 uq AC9L GjCCI2 iuqq CLJ.0L2 LC UI

cougL9ucq (nIEcY boip) Uuøuc!iI? COU2IL91uCq (bEcY I!rI? lULJCi3fl? cou2rLiuq (rhc) uq UusucI9flA cou2LtsiuGq (Lc) VII LG&C!OU2 !q'q uwbcuoq (rc OL Ec) ou.II !2 ou juu uuci co*jitsiu win ccp ?c ouoc couswcq (kILcY l'I UOi UUC19IPG,ci.A AsL) g ju.w YLC bO2!pIA USIIC!IX CoU25Liucq i owc flwG (bLc !U 2Ow ?ct) suq 53 IjU1J 9LC iqecp? UU9UC!SIIA COU24LS!UCq t 2OWc jiWC UI

91C cwWgjcq 5OL :ogi wbjc uq p) uucijjA cou2i.siucq 2Vin2 N4JGLC là (5LUJ 9LG UGACL IJUC!S? coutLiucq OAL pC CULILG bLIOq (jj OL Fi'IEC !UCLG2IOU O AC2IUJCU( OU CS2IJ UOM uq O 101 4ô oqqcIiq U1J2 LOW LHb (I o88) ILOW I o0 q I à84 A9L!9P1G2 LC qucq UI LBC I

KLG22!OU O IUACIWCU1 OU CSI (JOM uq pA (IUUCI9j1A couu.Yiucq 1SUI2 0CL CU*ILc bciioq1PI

Page 43: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

Iô 419 ô2 50 I1 303 110

0904 O3I 0103 O3ôI 0991 0103 023

loooI 100091 (oo?a1 100331 10009) Loosil toooa)C)' 0033 0010 0021 0018 003 00?1 0003

to ossl IooilI loo1 (ooo1 100311 1003J 100241CE \K' 0139 0920 O3O 031 0R33 0393

11-?X 14=11 14=31 (4=11 14=11

cou2rIucq cou2rL2Iucq coI,2u,IJcq corwq EAcI.A JSLEILW2 14AL b022!PIA F!FCI (4CACL \bO22!PI? b022!PI \ C!II IIECVII L!lt E!L1 E!LI2 E!LW2 E"-'112 E!LU12

suq )9L C(JcI ruqiq Cu.0L2 9LG !U PLSCI(C42courL!ucq (rLCY uq UUSUC!IIA cOU2rL9!Ucq (Ec) &L22!0U2 IUCIIIqG IILIIJ iIxq C4jCCL2 IOL €9Cp 2np-bGLioq LcanJruu w nb ro ax LW-bG110q uq jccr291fl2 EOL CCIJ ACL 01001 UImucu9II coU2tL9uucq ((4Ec) IicIA uor UU9ucI9IIA cou2rI.wcq niEcY bo22ip1A UU3UC!IIA C0U2U9!UCq (bEcY I!r'I UIJLJC!9IIAUU9UCISII C0U2l0J!Uq (FEC (JL EC 10 0WC AcsL 90q I? U11-2flp-bL!0q2 LC I4EC CAL ?CSL OAGLSII 20p-bcLiOq LUI !2 pacq 00 U L1UUC!I cou2rL9IurUUUC!lI coU(LuUcq (iic OL I(4IC ''- Ac&) j4 Lw-2np-bcLuoq7 91.6 bopi? L1090C!9IIA coU(Iucq (bhc !U 0WC ACSL) 91.6 IIrcIq!!q'q WV' flIp-I3GLI0q? Ia.O-Io.1 uq Io2IO81 E!1W U090C!91 COU2LL9IUi Of9rflU !2 qGr6LLJJIUGq M!tPIU CSC Wp-bCLIOq .1 It 1-20PI)6L!0(12 016 UCACL

GLG22!OU 01! ''tIiitUi (JO 1J1J U°' ooq C) 101 là I0M-q!A!qcUq L"-' 110W ElIb (I o88) ILOW I ôO '1 I ô21 ASLI9PIC2 01.6 q6ucq JU PI I SWb1c 12

K6ilL62(!0U 0 Ill t(tIiWJ( 00 C) p) 11090C!911? COU2tL9iuCq I9II12 10 rMo 2np-bcL!oq2 LLG9I!U uJJ-2np-b6uoq2 02 q6LCU1

19P16 9

Page 44: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

Op2 4l 4 101

Q•l 0155 01e 04à 0103

1oosl 1oosI Ioo&gI 100841 Ioo3I 1ooI Foo4I0O1 -0OIè OJ1 Oifl O00. 053 00t100441 1ooQeI (OUSI tOOQII Ioo?81 1Oo3I 1oi31

ol O53 0111 04.0 0IQO 0800

l=4e l1 W8 144I I4=I I4lOcouiLs!ucq couaø.sIuq counuc*1 coun.ucq EACL) AC9L

E!WJ2 CAC& bOa!pl) rwqA MCL \ bO22!PI b02!PI) \ 1WI 14lC}IUU2 L1l1I12 LJU1i2 bJWJ? UU2 }iUUa

uo o 14O 55ô JÔÔ 40

0o4 0I3 0381 04l 011 0833

Ioo0I 100831 100331 Iooo1 loossi 1ooi1o 01? 0OOQ OOL 003? 0037 005e 0005

Iooil l00?ll 1008Q1 loOQol loO1?1 (ouiaI 101131(.1 \ V 0 ?0? 0 O5l O3Q1 0??3 01OQ 083

i1o l=53 11= . 14=lô i=70 J1=Io(0U2LL9I2Cq coaJ2pauucq cou2p9!ucq couluq EAGL JCSL

j4CdCL b°!PI? r!rcl CACI \ bO22!pI? b0IPl) \ IcI) J,11cVII L!W L!U1 E!U112 k1U112 LILW2 EILLII2

— — — Joo-le. — — —---------------—--------

CCCl2 10L c9qi 2np-buOq iuqq CIL012 gic 0 PL9CFq2IJUSUC!1111A couitnicq (riiic) bO�.OPI> LlU9UCI1Ifl) C0U2113!UCq (bLc? lirci) JJUVUC!g11A C0U1tWCq (rLCY luq iiusucisll) COU2iL!UCq (EC) K68Lc22!0u2 !ucIIc Luiw LqLw-2np-bcL!oq2 9L 4L( 1lCLI ?CI ()2CLuII 2u1P-bGuiOq 21II12 !2 pCq 041 (!LI1J OU$UC!91 COU2(12t1U 249(1 t0L C9CP ?CgL ot vol ijuuiC9iI) couuucq (wcr l!II' 001CACL} ?cgL uuu-2np-bLoq2 SL b020p? UUVUC!9lI) COU2ILgi!Ucq (bEc !U 4OWC Acgty s LlwJ-2np-bcLIoqv l!F'l ijugucigil? couu.iuuicq (FEC ° ECu oowc )cuy vq I?bcL!oq I è.0- uq IalI- I oKI I!" (jUuJCi9 COIJ2LLSIUI 19lI12 iv qCICLW!UCq MIqJIU cvcp vnp-bcuoq 7 $jU1J-vflp-bGLIOq2 gIG UGJCL LIuvI1c!9II? couotLsiucq (mc °t FI4EC

Lc2ioIJ 01 !u2C21Wc1fl 00 CJ 1W" uq (J 0L 4 oll-qiMqGIJq 01.1212 0.0w hilL (I e88) 11.0W ia.Oq I eKl YLC qcucq !U 19I)IC I' 9WbIC 1 qi'qq IULO (0 2(1(1-

8LI22!ou Ot !UG0UJr.UI .41 I9p I1" !IU9 () p? UU9IJC!9,l) couvuL9ivcq 2(9(112 OACL Ieo- I e uq I O.8- I O84tPI

Page 45: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

40p2 181 188 103

yq 1 OQ.X4 OQOl 0I?

[000?) tooos) (oooi [000?) boos) boooQ)00)8 0011 00)? 003) 0003 O05

boosQi too?QI booisi loossi LooQsl [0038)CL \ K' 0)8? 0Q) 013? 043Q 0801 0488

Ji=I) 14=I. 44=88 44"3?3? 110W Iô0-IoX4 qAlq;uqe I8X-84 4?, 'U aflp-b6110q lu allp-bGLiOq

C0ACI.986 PCI0M 1620.iCIGq I80-X 9Uq COACWSC PCI0M q,AiqcuqaL!I.W2 UC1CI. P916 06161. 91G np-bGLiOq2 UCACL 4J9A6 916 LcaILIclcqVII Ew 1P91 L!W12 L91 VII h!1th2 LIWI2 IPSI E!LW2 4}191 U6A61

(I) (s) (4) (4) () (Q)

rncnqc 4jWJ xq GItCCIS OL G9CJJ 2np.bcl.ioq IC2I1IL!US lu nb (088 4jWJ-bGLIoq 4jxGq 6(j6C12 9uq As 6116C42 219U9L 60.017916 !U PL9CICGI2LILIII 11U9UCI91 21917! OACL !9wbIC lnp-bcL!oq2 I ô.'iO- I o 9Uq I ô8- 1884 g681622!OUZ (I) -(4) iUCplqG Lush 4jxcq 64JGC12 uq AC9L 64JCC2 K6816221002 (i)- ()110W bSA!US !MGU! 0161 IG CUI!LC 79Wb16 bG1ioq fU(61624 COACLIJgC 52 iG 19110 01 ERIWV JO JU561674 CXbGUhG K68L6221002 () - () 916 ch1w91Gq flhIU

I(68L67210U2 (I) - I) 911 G?liUJiJlCq 10110191 2IJWbIC uq pA (I) !ApG(pcL IJLW2 CAGI pq !ulcLc2( 10161986 PI°' 3? 9uJq (ii) 4jUl12 14191 916 U0( GXb11CI11A L67tLIC16q

C8LG22i0U 01!U,r.!IIhJcUl thU 1.11211 U0 Yuq C) 101.48 0,tqlAq6uq 4jW12 110W LHb(Io88)ILOw I80 iq IÔSI A91!9PI62 91.6 q6jUCq 'U WPI' uq

L(ClC?2i0U 0I5i, f.!Iiiir.UI 00 c!J!Jh lioN 5Uq C) pA OfiJIL W6IJ251LC 01 U&I9UC19IIA COU2LL91UGq 21915120161 CULILG 2sWbpG bcL,Oq 9U 601116 2np-bGLioq

JIIPIG 5

Page 46: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

J,1op2 Ioyqi ooi oo

Iooo?I bali) 100021 1oool003 ff011 00i O02

1OIQl to 1Q11

CL\K' -03Q1 -01o2

rc 101121 loogQIC1\JC'' -0183 -03g5

X UC 1OOQOI tO02Q1CE \ IC' -005. -0532

DI!quqx boo3QI boo321 X c2iuclcq 100211 X I'OM 100241

0105 0015 CL\K 0ISQ CL\ -00a4

toos1 boosai boosJ toOSQI

038à 0lO. CE\iC' 0111 CL\I(1 0410

(I) (s) (3) (4)A!III1C!I COUJLS!U4 BCfl!Cl1 A!qCUq 2WIfl rO icr1ugq IUCLC1 fUUflJ iw'q UUI19J

bi!nn iiq dfl!bWU) ir 2 LJ 2flW OLC92P uq nuncq I(U OJCLCqi4 CLC22!OU2 !IiclnqC jxcq CJCI2 guqgtq CI.LOL2 it,bøXw q!Mqq2 BC8LC2210u (1) !utf C2J UOM MIIJ 0 qnWW) ASt!9P1C IJ0t CdflOJ2 OliC !t0 U".' 2IOCF 12 !U IP IOMC2I dn0uulc OLIjLW?CIIL2 (1C22 IpJu 058 OUCI btobiq)fl2C2 IU0UCI0 C0U20J1111 2fl2 9j 41C pdiuu,ii OLIPC LJ7CJ )C0L jC8LC72IOU (3) IUfCLR C2II UOM MUP 0 qIiwwA AOL!9p1C ipot cdnoI2 OUC !t IJLW,2 CO1CUOUt2 L2ILICI II LOUJ

IJou-uu(cLoqcq cg2p A9LIOPIC LCLILC2CIJI2 ?C0I2 (U MpiCp LIUIJ2 flC VOl jU0UC!0ii) c0u282!ucq IC8LC22!OU (J) n2C2 IJUOUC1OI COU2ILOIUI 2W1fl2 01 (C cuq Oj (PC L"0I ()cou2,LoiuCq (klLcY i!i Vol IJu2uc!oII? COU2itsIUCq (rMc) bo221p1) UU01iC!9II? C0U2001UCq (hEcY i!rCI) LUUC!0II> CftJ2lt0!UCtl (rECY 0U1 (jU0UC!9II) COU2ILUIUCq (Ec) IPCa o-q!qcuq u'" LLOW Ulb (iàgg) ILOW Ià.),0 Uq 1à84 A9L!SPIC2 lC qCiUcq !U 10p1c2 ouq 3 E1WI IJU9UCI9 COV2ILUIU( 2ilfl2 tot C9CP ?.C9L 9LC UO1 IJUOUC!OIJA

BT.LC22!OIJ Ut !UC1wCUl oU CJ LJM O ouq C0211 U0? !Ulf.L9LCq /!lP UUUC!iP coV2ILOiuCq 2191n2 LC2,Liclcq qi,uqcuq (91fl2 uq Oi c9?il !iUq rlUfl2Cq I!UC O cLcqi( 210122 IOL

gCQLC22!OU OIIUAC2IWCUI OU C922 JOM ouq () p) 01JUn91 UUOUC!91 COIJ2IL9!UI ton2 L62(LICICq qIA!qcuq z,ozn2 "q IOM cop uq nun2Cq wi; otCLCqiL 2I9Ifl

19p1r.

Page 47: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

501 QÔ 3Q3 be

yqi b3 0338 oos oI O'N8 0?ô.X 0323 O15

looisJ boil] 10023] 100341 boooal (o'oboJ 1oo31 bo'o131

0021 0033 0018 0Olè 0OIQ 0033 000I O0Q

[00201 10134) b0o'*?) 1oo] 10031) 10013J boo) 100351054Q 0271 0104 03)3 0307 03QQ Ollo 0511

si—ia i=io 1.ig M=55 kt4ô L1=Idcoip.ucq c°!q CoUSIuq Co02R9IICq c01U.!Uq

EIUIJ2 MCACL bofl!PIA !FI L!UI 14CAL bO2!PIA F!F'I)'VII h!Uli VII E!I11J2 L!LW2

J40 L1WiAC9U MIiji W0(G (I' 30.\ I' EWM1II JjO 11WJ-A12 M!I !U#wJ6Uf cxCccqw5 !U!t!l c9bu(91 (K'')

xcq G(Cl2uq ACSL CUCR uqq CLLOL2 !' pLCC(couIiucq (rHEc)' bon!PI) LuuvucI9II CU2IL9WC (bhcY I!r'l' 1IU91JC!II) COU2LL9WC (FECY 9U IuYuC!J) couLiucq (Ec) vii LGLC22!Oti2 !"qq 1"'bcLioq (rLc OL Ec) OLII Llfl i pcq 00 4j1.W 09UC!I COU2ILSIUL 2W(fl2 LOL C9qJ ?€SL OU0I IUIJCIS11A couu.iuq () pjcA uoCACL), XCL)' 8 LL11J2 bOfl!p1? LIU9UC!SII? c00fl.gIuGq 91 2owC t!wc (c ni 20Wc AG9L)' 911q 53 ULW2 9L qcGX U9UCi9IIA cQuL19iuCq 9j OwC I!WG !U tpc9LC c2iJw9icq to joj wbjc suq pA 1JU9UC!9JJA C0IJIL9JUGq 294fl2 MPCLG ie LIUIJ2 91C UCACL ugocujjA coutL9uucq OACL tpc cuuc bCLIOq (1Ec OL rklEc !UCL2!OU O( IUAC2fWGIJI 0U C92 $JOM YIJq O UL là oM-qAqcuq juu ow EHh (I o88) 1ow oo q i Ô84 tupi 91€ q€jucq lu 1PI I I8L€22iOU2

CLc2lIOU °L !0AC21WGU* OU C02p U°' 9lJ O pA IIU9UCI9JIA CO02fLSIIJ€ 2191fl2 OACL CUL!LG b€L!Oq C!WlU9fIU Op2€LI91iOU2 MflJJ P!P I€2 OL iUAC2WCUg 8LOMLp

1PI 10

Page 48: VIIAJqXH - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-12 · 1nm1vni ol rks .wofl ,rIT rrrit is di Q1 wol bnbivib miiI Isdi qi-FI (88Q1) 'ti1nbi IIsi3nnfi bniaU2no3 nib1o33s

1uncq riuc \ V 0 123 OSDO 0329

flun?cq [mc >0 0931 0 940 0330 0983

(92I1 \ V 0312 0S30 0100 0192

F&c D!" \ V 0189 0312 0033 0101

c11liCICq 0112 0030 0353 0S0QELC1I0U °LAC1l.2

ncP 1° i12i CIbUIl 0380 0540 0112 0310

Iu,c..CZICOACL,8c 8030 0038 4843 9409

O E!UK!!1 bO1!C

(JL0M1JJ 0104 0139 0133 0180

I3QS 1438 1300 1331

(c' Llo -I) V> 0081 OIlS 0001 0021

CP hI°' V> 0421 0213 0391 0431

0398 0103 0333

' IUAC2IWcUI C'P EJ°' OL0MIIJ

14=530 14=113 11—333 14—310

COUlI1tUCi1 0U0lIlUCq C0U111J!UCq IU1i.JCIt2J.jcAL b°!ll7 rIrcI VII

flU112G Iwei !2 tpc 9111011111 O nur12Cq wc o ccqi 91 4C cuq 0 Ac 1 2IVC! 12 qic 211011 O C92 8Uq mrncq I!UcLcWwCq C9WIU2 11191 ic uo czzucgcq p.ow pciu biq am q!'4q"q c' !2 cp suq WgLJCC0IpC 2CCfl181C2101w oqcp qic poor A9Inc obi.ccucq 200cr uuq qic poor VJnC oicowwou cdniA q! 12 iC 8u1011u0 0(EBUDv) lo IIIOCLC2O cxbcuoc DCPO 12 qic 211011 0IC poor AUIflC 2pOU-1cU11 q;pl 1029! C8b!291 !u qicC9bfl9J (J(4i) VIC qcpiicq 111 Wpjc 1 IU18C2i C0ACISC !2 IIJC LW0 OC9WIU2 COLC WOCI.C22 48XC2 vuq q;biccioiou

bcuoq (rEc OL Ec) E9CP CUILA LCbOLIO qic Wcq!mJ uq UIIIIJpCL O0p2C1Av1!0U2 101AC2W1C111 (fl cvp Uoi d iiqC01J24L9IUC 92 20W0 1!WC (bbc !U OOWG Act) suq 3 U1J2 91C IWCIA pumJcvpA COU2219flJ6 91 2OWC LIWC 111 IJJC

UIJ9IJC!911A couop.giucq OACL 111' CU4!LC bcLloq (J4LC OL ric w CACLA Ac g 1111112 81.C bo22lpIA pu8ucicflA

IJIJ9UC!9JIA CoIJ2a9IUcq (rhcY uq lnrnucivIIA couou9wcq (Ec) LOL OJJC cujn.c bcuoq J p11012 VLC UC1iCL

c0u2a1ucq (Lc) IWCIA 1101 1IIJ9UC!911A C0U211WUC (rMkc) bo22ipIA Liuvuci9iJX COU2ILVJUCq (bhc) lrrclXIô.Oq iot OACL!IJ 2184112 I? pcq 011 U" PU913C!VI COU2ILYIUI 289W2 0L ccp Ac91 0JU01 LflJ9UCI9JIA

(J1W Cp913C2CLI22!C2 pA OACLSJJ IJU9UC!9l C0112212W1 289002 0L Q JOM-qiIiiqCUq 111.1U2 p.0w LHb (Igg) p.0w

cqi9u JJLW CJJ9I.9C8cL121!C2 pA UIJ9UC!UIIA cOuOlL9wCq 249002W cuonc awbjc bcuoq

.LPI' II