vilas mujumdar p.e., usa vice-chair, wfeo-disaster risk ... · natural hazards (frequency has been...
TRANSCRIPT
Vilas Mujumdar, P.E., USA
Vice-Chair, WFEO-Disaster Risk Management Committee
International Conference on Engineering for Sustainable Energy in Developing Countries
Guangzhou, ChinaSept. 5-8, 2013
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Outline of Presentation
a. Natural Hazards Considered
b. Community as a coupled complex system
c. System level interdependencies
d. Electrical Power systems Resiliency
e. Community Resiliency approach
f. Conclusions
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Natural Hazards (Frequency has been increasing ) Earthquakes Tsunamis Hurricanes Floods Fires landslides should be considered on a local condition basis Natural Hazard risks are aleatoric by nature and can be
dealt with probabilistic models
Probability for each hazard event is different
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Natural Hazard Disruptive Event - Impact
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Built Environment
Economic Structure
Societal Infrastructure
FUNCTIONALITY
COMMUNITY
RE SILIENCE
COMMUNITY
COMPOSITION
Short term Long term
Business disruptions
Restore & retrofit
Buildings
Infrastructure
Healthcare
Emergency services
Business closures & relocation
Economic recovery
Revise codes &
Regulations
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Impact
Community – A Coupled Complex System
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Organizational Systems
Technical Systems Economic Structure
Socio-technical
Socio-economic
Decisions
Technical
Organizational
Economic
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Social
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Community System Behavior
Community System
BehaviorPredictable
FunctionalityUnpredictable
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Infrastructure systems
Socio‐economic systems
Socio‐economic systems
1 .Joint fragility models for infrastructure systems,
2. Interdependency models with socio-economic systems
Action
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Linkages of Subsystems
Hazard
Built Environment
Economic Infrastructure
Societal Infrastructure
DECISIONS
COMMUNITY
RESILIENCY
Coping
Rigid
Non‐linear & flexible
Flexible
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Electrical power is very important as power outage affects buildings, water systems, transportation systems, Communication systems & socio-economic systems
Electric power outages and the duration of outages from multiple hazards have been growing steadily
Electric network consists of:
1. Generation2. Transmission3. Distribution4. Use
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Electrical Network functioning is Critical to:
1. Physical infrastructure systems a. Water systemb. Wastewater treatment systemc. Transportation network d. Communications
2. Socio-economic systemsa. Organizational - Business interruptionsb. Emergency Management operations
System design
Operational
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Some Natural Hazards – Impact on Power Transmission
Strong wind & Thunder storms Lightening storms
Wild Fires Winter snow storms This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author Source‐Google
Transmission Sub- stationTransmission lines Poles
Hazard Impact - Electrical systems
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Brazil & Paraguay – 2009 Heavy rains and Strong storm short circuited transformers on a heavy
transmission lineDuration‐ Up to 7 hrs
Population affected – 87 M
China‐ Hunan Province ‐2008Worst Winter storm in 50 yrs. Collapse of transmission and distribution systems
Duration ‐ nearly two weeks Population affected – 4.5 M
Power Outage Impact – Developing Countries(Some Examples)
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Nuclear plants, six coal‐fired plants and 11 oil‐fired power plants were shut down. This is 11 percent of Japan’s total power.
Tohoku ‐ Japan 2011Massive earthquake and Tsunami
China, 2008 The Wenchuan, Sichuan Province,
Earthquake 7.9 Mag. Electric power generation plants, hydro and coal fire, sustained damage.Distribution and transmission systems damaged by landslides and rock falls Duration of outage – 60days
Recent Power Outage – Japan & China
Some 70 miles away, however, a microgrid in Sendai, Japan remained unaffected and supplied power to a hospital and part of an university
campus connected to it.This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author Source‐Google
Electric Power -Outage
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Electric power outage data for US (1990-2005 ) - NERC
The annual rate of increase of outages in the U.S. - 7.2% , Canada - 8.2% Duration of an outage is directly related to population density Outages are longer in the winter and summer than in the spring and
autumn, due to weather Weather and equipment failure are responsible to a great extent, with
weather becoming a more important source of outages over time
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Economic Impact Estimates based on earning capacity, the value of a life and the cost of transportation delays from various sources, business losses, premature death, and transportation public service interruptions, the estimated cost of a 20 hour outage in the New York City region is over $1.2 billion (Zimmerman, Restrepo, Simonoff, and Lave 2007, p. 286)
Interdependency – systems level
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Types of Interdependencies1. System design (some examples)
a. Building systems with electrical networkb. Water system with electrical networkc. Transportation network with electrical networkd. Communication network electrical network
2. Operationala. Hierarchical – within utility companiesb. Organizational – between power utility co. & othersc. Socio-economic systems
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Physical interdependence – various utilities
Courtesy O’RourkeUtilities in Manhattan, NY
Operational Level Interdependency (Example – Electrical network )
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ElectricalNetwork
Local Water Systems
Transportation Systems
Hierarchy within Organization
H
H
H
0.85
0.80
0.90
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Socio‐economic Systems
M
0.50
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Once the Interdependency relationships are defined, systems can be evaluated for enhancing
resiliency
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Resiliency
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DefinitionGeneralResilience is the capacity of a system to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of unforeseen changes, even catastrophic incidents
Community Resiliency is cross-disciplinary by definition
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National Academy of Engineering- USA“The ability to prepare & plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events”
Resiliency
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Dimensions of Resiliency
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Electric Power Systems
Socio-economic systems
a. Redundancyb. Robustness
a. Robustnessb. Resourcefulness
Electric Power Systems Resiliency Considerations
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1. Generation Fuel Storage Facilities – Robust Design Fuel Supply Lines – Ability to withstand Ground movements Power Plant Facilities – Robust Design- High safety levels
2. Transmission Transmission Towers – Structural design considerations Transmission Lines – ability to stand large movements
3. Distribution Substations – Robust design & redundancy Transformers – Design of poles, alternate methods
4. Final user connection points – overhead, underground
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Electric Power Systems Resiliency Considerations
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A. Identify Critical points of vulnerability in the systemB. Use of Smart GridsC. Connections with other national/regional gridsD. Distributed Generation facilities – Mega citiesE. Self sufficient communities – Mini power plants
Provide Alternate sources of electrical power Hydro Wind Off-grid solutions Solar Bio-fuels
Resiliency
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Goal of resiliency is to reduce the impact of a hazard
Resiliency can be decomposed into technical, economic and social components. These components are interdependent.
Resiliency can be measured by time required to restore : The damage to built environment, Reduced economic activity, and Disruption to services needed for normal functioning
Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both quantitative and Qualitative approaches
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Functionality
0
100
Time
A
B
C D
E
Measure of Resiliency
B = Event OccurredE = Full Recovery
T1 T2
80T2 - T1 = Rate of Recovery (Rapidity)
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Resiliency
Community Resiliency
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RC = ∑ RB, RE, RS │F
Total Community Resiliency:
Where,RC = Total Community resiliencyRB = Resiliency of Built EnvironmentRE = Economic system resiliencyRS = Societal systems resiliencyF = Functionality
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Functionality can be graded as poor, average, and good
Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both quantitative and Qualitative approaches
Resiliency Components
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Built - Environment Resiliency Factors - RB
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System design basis:a. modern design codes,b. network redundancy, c. robustness of components and overall network,d. shock-absorbing elements,e. self–repairing capacity of networks, f. material properties, andg. quality of construction
Operational basis:a. enforcement of codes and regulations, b. maintenance of networks, c. periodic review of age and condition of networks, d. retrofit requirements, and e. incentives for retrofit.
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Economic System Resiliency Factors - RE
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System design basis: a. sound economic structure of the community,b. availability of low-cost business insurance,c. government policies to promote business environment, d. infrastructure to conduct daily business, and e. availability of needed workforce.
Operational basis: a. business association to address common issues, b. emergency plan for workforce,c. business continuation plan, d. ability to quickly restart business, and e. willingness to partner with other businesses and
community leadership, and government agencies.
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Societal System Resiliency Factors - RS
System design basis: a. established social institutions, b. community volunteer groups, c. appropriate government agencies for assistance, d. established lines of communications, e. community facilities for mass temporary housing, f. emergency plan for the community, and g. stock of basic supplies for 72 hours.
Operational basis: a. regular evacuation drills, b. workable evacuation routes, c. clarity in hierarchical authority structure, and d. community education in risk and risk management.
Chile‐2010 New Zealand 2010, 2011
Earthquake magnitude
8.8 7.1 & 6.3
Dead 723 184
Wounded 500 50
Economic Loss(% of GDP)
30B ‐ USD(18)
24B ‐ USD(20)
Local time Early Morning Mid‐day
State of Country (UN)
High Developing Developed
Rank in human
Basic Comparison – Two earthquakes
Attribute
Chile New Zealand
RB Medium/High High
RE Medium High
RS Low/Medium High/Very High
Functionality (F) Average Average/Good
Overall ResiliencyRC
Medium High
Community Resiliency Comparison
The impact of a natural hazard depends on its intensity, duration, and on the pre-existing conditions Pre-existing conditions can be assessed in three broad areas: built environment, economic structure and social institutions. These conditions decide the resiliency of each componentFunctionality/operations of various systems play a critical role in determining resiliency of each component.Identify critical vulnerable points in the electrical systemDevelop alternate sources of power as complimentary to the existing grid
Conclusions
Overall resiliency of a community comprises of resiliency of built environment, resiliency of economic structure, and resiliency of social institutionsA well defined organizational structure and clarity in hierarchical responsibilities is necessaryThe overall resiliency can be graded on a qualitative scaleResiliency does not have to be same each hazard. Different levels of resiliency can be created in a community to deal with different hazards
Conclusions
Enhancing community resilience results in minimizing the impact of a hazard
T AH N YK O U