villere predicts growth in 2012

76
Recent Trends in The Concrete Industry Our Thoughts, A Look Back At The Great Recession, and What The Future Holds Presented by Pierre G. Villere The Alabama +Mississippi Summer Convention May 31 - June , 2012

Upload: alabama-concrete-industries-association

Post on 24-Mar-2016

216 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

DESCRIPTION

Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Recent Trends in The ConcreteIndustry

Our Thoughts, A Look Back At The GreatRecession, and What The Future Holds

Presented by Pierre G. VillereThe Alabama +Mississippi Summer Convention

May 31 - June , 2012

Page 2: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• USA Today reported in a lead story just lastweek, “the automobile industry has been aconsistent bright spot in the Americaneconomy over the last several months, asautomakers have added jobs to meet

Let’s Start With The Outlook

automakers have added jobs to meetgrowing demand”

• And news from the industry is only gettingbetter, as new estimates expect automakersto sell 14.3 million cars in the United Statesin 2012 — 1.5 million more than they soldlast year

Page 3: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Factories at both foreign and domesticautomakers are now working at maximumcapacity, and the industry is adding shiftsand jobs to keep up with that rising demand

Let’s Start With The Outlook

and jobs to keep up with that rising demand

• Some plants are adding third work shifts,and others are piling on worker overtimeand six-day weeks

Page 4: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Ford Motor and Chrysler Group are cuttingout or reducing the annual two-week Julyshutdown at several plants this summer toadd thousands of vehicles to their output

Let’s Start With The Outlook

add thousands of vehicles to their output

• “We have many plants working at maximumcapacity now,” says Ford spokeswomanMarcey Evans. “We’re building as many(cars) as we can”

Page 5: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Chrysler and General Motors, the majorbeneficiaries of the auto rescue, have bothreported their best profits in more than adecade

Let’s Start With The Outlook

• With factories now struggling to meetdemand, both foreign and domestic autocompanies are planning to add even morejobs, in addition to the 139,000 jobs in thelast three years

Page 6: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• So why does this matter?

• Because…

…. the construction materials

Let’s Start With The Outlook

…. the construction materialsindustry is next…

Page 7: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• In January, we began our sixth year of thedownturn in the construction materialsindustry, despite a recession that wassupposed to be over a long time ago

Why So Long?

• Officially at least, the recession began inDecember 2007 and ended in June 2009,but our industry is still deeply mired in it

• PIP (put-in-place) construction numbers,we are down fully one-third since the 2006peak of over $1.2 tillion

Page 8: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• We are experiencing a current run rate ofaround $800 billion

• But the numbers in the ready mixedconcrete industry look worse, with peak-to-trough declines of 45% (458 million cubic

Why So Long?

trough declines of 45% (458 million cubicyards in 2005 compared to around 258million cubic yards in 2008, 09, and 10)

• For those that have been in the industry fora few decades, this is the longest and mostdifficult recession we have experienced

Page 9: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• From a construction viewpoint, it is theworst since the Great Depression of the1930s

• We now have is a long-term structuralproblem in our economy known as a

Why So Long?

problem in our economy known as abalance sheet adjustment

• Other countries have experienced this,including the US during the Depression, orJapan over the last twenty years

Page 10: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Many other global economies haveexperienced this, which is the accumulationof debt over ten to thirty years that resultedin a massive asset boom, followed by anassociated financial crisis when the bubble

Why So Long?

associated financial crisis when the bubbleburst

• The response is then to nationalize privatedebt, and what follows is a decade-longperiod of low growth and highunemployment

Page 11: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• To this we add the occasional sovereign debtcrises as a result of the increased debt thatwas accumulated during the crisis in orderto smooth out the problem

Why So Long?

Page 12: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Remember, there are four key structuralproblems that converged to create thisbalance sheet recession:

Why So Long?

Debt in the public sector, which is growing andtherefore exacerbating the problem

Debt in the household sector

The housing bubble hangover

Very high unemployment

Page 13: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Those key drivers resulted in mutedconsumer spending, which is

Why So Long?

consumer spending, which is

70%of our economy

Page 14: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012
Page 15: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012
Page 16: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• So how do we solve it, and get our industryhealthy again?

• We have to tackle each of those fourproblems, as each has a remedy that has tobe put into place…

Why So Long?

be put into place…

• … and Washington needs to get their ownfiscal house in order, along the lines of theSimpson-Bowles plan that spells out at least$4 trillion in debt reductions, which willbring the primary debt in balance whilereducing our overall national debt over time

Page 17: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• So what does this mean for our industry?

• A long, five-year contraction that appears tohave finally turned around…

Why So Long?

… and despite the slowing economicindicators of the past few weeks, the outlook

is bullish

• Let’s take a look some highlights od the 2011NRMCA Industry Data Survey results

Page 18: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• We projected in mid-2009 that 2010 wouldbe the worst year in memory in terms ofindustry volumes and financialperformance

Highlights

We were right…

• Top line selling price fell by $5.63 per

cubic yard compared to 2009, from $96.05to $90.42

Page 19: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Even worse is the further broadening ofoperating losses for the industry, from ($3.07)in 2009 to….

Highlights

in 2009 to….

$(7.27) per cubic yard

• The industry has never experienced thislevel of unprofitability

Page 20: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The recessions in 1974-75 , 80-81, 91-93, and 2001-02 all had an impact onthe industry, but nothing on the scaleof 2007-2009

Highlights

of 2007-2009

• 2010 was expected to be worse…and itwas…

Page 21: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Volumes were dead flat, with nogrowth…

• …. but selling prices came down, and…

Highlights

• …. but selling prices came down, and…

• …..operating losses expanded anadditional $4.20 per cubic yard

Page 22: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The contraction in ready mixed concreteproduction has been accelerating:

• 2005 – 458.3 million cubic yards

• 2006 - 456.8 million cubic yards

Highlights

• 2007 - 414.6 million cubic yards

• 2008 - 351.7 million cubic yards

• 2009 – 258.6 million cubic yards

• 2010 – 257.7 million cubic yards

But turned the corner in 2011

• 2011 – 265.7 million cubic yards

Page 23: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• This contraction of 201,000,000 cubic yards(peak-to-trough) translates into an estimated37,400 parked mixer trucks, or 48% of theestimated US mixer fleet at its peak in 2005

Highlights

estimated US mixer fleet at its peak in 2005

• Accurate employment data is difficult todiscern, but the drop in volume for readymixed producers, and on attendant cementand aggregates employment, easily exceededthe six figure mark at the bottom of themarket

Page 24: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The single biggest concern for the industry isthe WIDENING disadvantage of the LowestQuartile, which has dramatically acceleratedin this recession

Highlights

in this recession

• Over the last 3 years, this segmentrepresenting the bottom 25% of the market

has accumulated $27.75 per yard in operating

losses, and $9.18 per yard in EBITDA losses

Page 25: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• This loss is completely attributable to their topline selling price disadvantage…

Highlights

…. $13.91 compared to the UpperQuartile

• How has this segment survived a five yeardownturn????

Page 26: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Impact of Average Selling Price on Profitability andEBITDA on the Lowest and Upper Quartiles

$85.05

$98.96

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

-$13.01

$4.04

-$6.46

$9.06

-$20.00

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

Lower Quartile Upper Quartile

ASP Profit Before Taxes EBITDA

Page 27: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Company Demographics

Lowest

Quartile

Upper

Quartile

1 COMPANY DEMOGRAPHICS

2 Number of ready mixed concrete plants 13 13

3 Cubic yards of ready mixed concrete sold 498,809 440,088

4 Cubic yards per plant sold 38,245 34,999

5 Number of ready mixed concrete truck mixers 119 110

6 Cubic yards per truck mixer 4,189 3,993

Company Size Analysis

7 Average age of truck mixer fleet (months) 94 99

8 Number of aggregate hauling trucks 10 13

9 Number of cement hauling trucks 5 8

10 Distance per roundtrip (miles) 25 25

11 Time per roundtrip (minutes) 120 115

12 Total roundtrips 547 596

13 Total number of concrete truck drivers' hours 189,805 152,933

14 Delivered cubic yards per hour 2.6 2.9

15 Variable delivery cost per minute $0.78 $0.83

16 Fixed delivery cost per minute 0.31 0.27

17 Total delivery cost per minute $1.09 $1.11

Page 28: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Ready Mixed Concrete Production

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

Annual Production (Cubic Yards)

Page 29: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The contraction in ready mixed concreteproduction had not turned around by 2011:

So How Have Alabama &Mississippi Fared?

Alabama MississippiAlabama Mississippi

2005 6,385,000 3,919,000

2006 6,607,000 4,320,000

2007 6,509,000 4,359,000

2008 5,727,000 3,906,000

2009 4,189,000 2,958,000

2010 3,706,000 2,844,000

2011 3,673,000 2,786,000

Page 30: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Historical Alabama & MississippiVolumes & Share of US Market

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

U

S

C

u

S

t

a

t

e

,000

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

u

b

i

c

Y

a

r

d

s

C

u

b

i

c

Y

a

r

d

s

Alabama Mississippi U.S.

Page 31: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Typical Producer – Annual Cubic Yards

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 32: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Average Cubic Yards

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Southeastern Region Typ NRMCA Member Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Page 33: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Typical Producer – Cubic Yards Per Plant

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 34: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Cubic Yards Per Plant

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Southeastern Region Typ NRMCA Member Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Page 35: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Typical Producer – Number of ReadyMixed Concrete Trucks

100

120

140

160

180

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 36: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

2010 – Average Number of Ready MixedConcrete Trucks

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

Southeastern Region Typ NRMCA Member Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Page 37: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Typical Producer – Cubic Yards PerTruck

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 38: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region – Cubic Yards Per Truck

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

1,000

2,000

Southeastern Region Typ NRMCA Member Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Page 39: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Average Sales Price Per Cubic Yard

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ASP $68.04 $69.44 $80.98 $90.31 $91.88 $94.15 $96.05 $90.42

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

Page 40: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Average Sales Price Per CubicYard

$90.00

$95.00

$100.00

Southeastern RegionTyp NRMCA

MemberLowest Quartile Upper Quartile

ASP $86.69 $90.42 $85.05 $98.96

$75.00

$80.00

$85.00

Page 41: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Pre-Tax Profit – Dollars Per Cubic Yard

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre Tax Profit $3.23 $1.58 $2.30 $2.98 $6.14 $7.63 $6.06 $0.20 ($3.07) ($7.27)

($9.00)

($8.00)

($7.00)

($6.00)

($5.00)

($4.00)

($3.00)

($2.00)

($1.00)

$0.00

Page 42: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Pre Tax Profit – Dollars Per Cubic Yard

($5.00)

$0.00

$5.00

SoutheasternRegion

Typ NRMCAMember

Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Pre-Tax Profit ($14.93) ($7.27) ($13.01) $4.04

($20.00)

($15.00)

($10.00)

Page 43: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Price Per Cubic Yard vs Pre-Tax Profit

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

Pe

rC

ub

icY

ard

Av

era

ge

Pre

-Ta

xP

rofi

t

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Avg. Pretax Prof it $2.89 $3.51 $4.76 $5.27 $4.26 $3.23 $1.58 $2.30 $2.98 $6.14 $7.63 $6.06 $0.20 -$3.07 -$7.27

Avg. Price per Cubic Yard $59.88 $60.80 $63.63 $65.26 $66.48 $66.24 $67.21 $68.04 $69.44 $80.98 $90.31 $91.88 $94.15 $96.05 $90.42

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

-$9.00

-$8.00

-$7.00

-$6.00

-$5.00

-$4.00

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

Av

era

ge

Pri

ce

Pe

rC

ub

icY

ard

Av

era

ge

Pre

Year

Page 44: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Pre-Tax Profit - Percentage Of Sales

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%Pre Tax Profit %

1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre Tax Profit % 3.2% 2.0% 4.2% 6.4% 3.4% 4.5% 7.5% 8.7% 6.7% 0.2% -3.1% -8.1%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Page 45: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Pre Tax Profit - Percentage Of Sales

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Southeastern RegionTyp NRMCA

MemberLowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Pre-Tax Profit -17.8% -8.1% -15.4% 4.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

Page 46: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Cost vs Price per Cubic Yard

$75.00

$80.00

$85.00

$90.00

$95.00

$100.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Avg. Price per Cubic Yard $59.88 $60.80 $63.63 $65.26 $66.48 $66.24 $67.21 $68.04 $69.44 $80.98 $90.31 $91.88 $94.15 $96.05 $90.42

Avg. Total Cost per Cubic Yard $56.99 $57.29 $58.87 $59.99 $62.22 $63.01 $65.63 $65.74 $66.46 $74.84 $82.68 $86.11 $94.22 $99.12 $97.87

$50.00

$55.00

$60.00

$65.00

$70.00

$75.00

Page 47: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

US Ready Mixed Concrete Production vsProfit Per Cubic Yard

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

-$10.00

-$8.00

-$6.00

-$4.00

-$2.00

$0.00

$2.00

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Millions

ofYa

rds

US Production Profit/Yd

Prof

itpe

rYar

d

Page 48: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

US Production vs Pre-Tax Profit

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

250

300

350

400

450

500

Av

era

ge

Pre

-Ta

xP

rofi

t

Cu

bic

Ya

rds

Pro

du

ce

d(i

nm

illi

on

s)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US Production 329 348 372 391 396 406 390 404 431 458 456 415 351 257 257

Avg. Pre-Tax Prof it $2.89 $3.51 $4.76 $5.27 $4.26 $3.23 $1.58 $2.30 $2.98 $6.14 $7.63 $6.06 $0.20 -$3.07 -$7.27

-$8.00

-$6.00

-$4.00

-$2.00

$0.00

0

50

100

150

200

250

Av

era

ge

Pre

Cu

bic

Ya

rds

Pro

du

ce

d(i

nm

illi

on

s)

Page 49: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Contribution by Company Size

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

Under 100,000cyd

100,000 -299,999 cyd

300,000 -500,000 cyd

Over 500,000cyd

TypicalNRMCAMember

LowestQuartile

Upper Quartile

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 50: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Contribution by Region

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

NortheasternMid-Atlantic

Southeastern North Central South Central Great Lakes Rocky Mountain PacificNorthwest

PacificSouthwest

Typical NRMCAMember

Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 51: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

EBITDA by Company Size

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Under 100,000cyd

100,000 -299,999 cyd

300,000- 500,000 cyd

Over 500,000 cyd Typical NRMCAMember

Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 52: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

EBITDA by Region

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

NortheasternMid-Atlantic

Southeastern North Central South Central Great Lakes RockyMountain

PacificNorthwest

PacificSouthwest

TypicalNRMCAMember

LowestQuartile

Upper Quartile

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 53: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

2010 Typical ProducerAverage Sales Price Per Yard $90.42

$50.85

$22.98

-$7.27

$50.85

-$0.18$17.76

$6.28

Material Other Delivery Plant Fixed CST Profit

Page 54: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

2010 Upper Quartile ProducersAverage Sales Price Per Yard $98.96

$20.75

-$0.66$4.04

$51.72

$5.71

$17.40

Material Plant Delivery Fixed CST Other Profit

Page 55: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

2010 Lowest Quartile ProducersAverage Sales Price Per Yard $85.05

$49.73$23.71

-$0.24

-$13.01

$7.02

$17.84

Material Plant Delivery Fixed CST Other Profit

Page 56: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Net Average Sales Price (per cubic yard)

$90.31$91.88

$94.15$96.05

$90.42

$80.00

$85.00

$90.00

$95.00

$100.00

$68.04$69.44

$80.98

$60.00

$65.00

$70.00

$75.00

$80.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 57: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Total Raw Material Costs (per cubic yard)

$49.82$51.06

$53.81$52.70

$50.85$50.00

$55.00

$60.00

$36.98$37.86

$44.24

$49.82$51.06 $50.85

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 58: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

2010: Total Raw Material Costs (per cubic yard)

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

Typ NRMCAMember

Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

Raw Materials Costs $50.85 $49.73 $51.72

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

Page 59: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

SE Region: Total Raw Material Costs (percubic yard)

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

SoutheasternRegion

Typ NRMCAMember

Lowest Quartile Upper Quartile

RawMaterials Costs $51.58 $50.85 $49.73 $51.72

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

Page 60: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

The Bottom Line – 2009 vs. 2010 Results

2010

Total Sales 96.05$ 100.0% 90.42$ 100.0%

Total Variable Costs 76.05$ 79.2% 74.89$ 82.8%

Marginal Contribution 20.00$ 20.8% 15.53$ 17.2%

Total Fixed Costs 23.02$ 24.0% 22.98$ 25.4%

2009

Total Fixed Costs 23.02$ 24.0% 22.98$ 25.4%

Profit Before Taxes & Other

Income/Expense

(3.02)$ -3.1% (7.45)$ -8.2%

Other Income 0.72$ 0.7% 0.85$ 0.9%

Other Expenses (0.77)$ -0.8% (0.67)$ -0.7%

Profit Before Taxes (3.07)$ -3.2% (7.27)$ -8.0%

EBITDA 3.70$ 3.9% (0.34)$ -0.4%

Page 61: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• All were experiencing severe volume andsales price declines, which are nowaccelerating

• Working capital was the tightest in

During The Height Of The Recession,Here Was The State of Most Producers

• Working capital was the tightest inmemory

• Accounts payable were stretched outindustry-wide

• DSO increases were endemic, andacceleration in credit losses were a harshreality

Page 62: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Trade credit quality issues were endemic upand down the trade receivables column:– Cement producers were owed significant money

During The Height Of The Recession,Here Was The State of Most Producers

– Cement producers were owed significant moneyby their ready mix customers

– Ready mix producers were in turn owed by long-time contractor customers

– It was the worst cycle we have seen in memory

These credit issues are mostly behind us asthe slow recovery takes hold

Page 63: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Negative cash flows were common

• Most banks moved industry loans into

During The Height Of The Recession,Here Was The State of Most Producers

• Most banks moved industry loans into“Special Assets”, and a few producerssuffered forced sales or liquidations

• Materials suppliers were the most stretchedthey have been in memory, limiting theassistance they can provide to their bestcustomers as in past recessions

Page 64: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• We accurately predicted, within a few percentagepoints, the industry’s performance in each of thelast five years

…So What Does This Mean?

• 2011 was the economic bottom, as will bereflected in the IDS results in September 2012

• Our view is that:

Page 65: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Selling prices will have fallen furthercompared to 2010, maybe as much as $5-7per yard

…So What Does This Mean?

• Volumes will be up slightly, from 257 to265 million cubic yards

Page 66: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Operating losses will be stable to upslightly, as producers worked to find everyopportunity to close the gap betweenselling price and volumes and the cost of

…So What Does This Mean?

selling price and volumes and the cost ofoperating their businesses

Page 67: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• These results illustrate clearly how significantlyvolume impacts this industry, and while we can’tquantify the improvement, our sense is that 2012will be the stable beginning of the turnaround

…Here Is What We Say Today

will be the stable beginning of the turnaround

• While we all know there is still a housinghangover, there is a market-by-marketimprovement in new starts

• However, certain markets are STILLexperiencing sinking prices on foreclosedhouses, increasing the spread between existingand new construction

Page 68: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Housing inventories have to work their waythrough the system in every market before newstarts rebound, affecting collateral commercialwork

…Here Is What We Say Today

work

• But most importantly…

Starts at around 400K per year for 5years is unsustainable, and shortages

are in the headlights!

Page 69: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The GNP has undoubtedly moved into positive territory,albeit with VERY slow growth, and while we see gains inretail sales and improving consumer confidence, it has yetto positively impact the construction industry

• The banking crisis is under control, due to aggressive

…Here Is What We Say Today

• The banking crisis is under control, due to aggressiveintervention by the Federal Reserve that has delivered theintended result

• We want to believe that the economic stimulus will have itsintended impact, but it will be years before we can lookback and determine if it was successful

• The decision to bail out the auto industry was obviouslythe right decision

Page 70: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The GNP has undoubtedly moved into positive territory,albeit with VERY slow growth, and while we see gains inretail sales and improving consumer confidence, it has yetto positively impact the construction industry

• The first quarter was robust, but the entire 1000-point

…Here Is What We Say Today

• The first quarter was robust, but the entire 1000-pointgain since January was erased in May, as headline news onslowing job growth and the Euro Zone have once againpoint to a bumpy recovery…

….but it is a recovery

Page 71: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• Our industry’s recovery will be a slow and gradual growthcycle, which clearly started this year (2012)

• Thereafter, expect shortages in raw materials, rollingstock, and equipment essential for the next growth cycle

• By 2015, we expect close to a full recovery, with

…Here Is What We Say Today

• By 2015, we expect close to a full recovery, withaccelerating growth due to pent up demand

• These kinds of growth spurts are not uncommon in ourindustry, as evidenced by past performance

• Take a look at historical gains:

Page 72: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

Ready Mixed Concrete Production

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

Annual Production (Cubic Yards)

Page 73: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• We are VERY concerned about the Lowest Quartile incertain slow-to-recover markets, as we cannot expect someto survive

• The patience and largess of cement and aggregatessuppliers is wearing thin, and we expect they will take a

…Here Is What We Say Today

suppliers is wearing thin, and we expect they will take aharder line on customers they have been carrying for thelast few years

• The total headcount in companies, plants in service, andserviceable rolling stock will be down substantially whenthe recovery takes a firm hold

Page 74: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• The industry is turning the corner in 2012, with aprojection of 304 million cubic yards

• This is almost 50 million cubic yards more than thetrough, raising questions about the ability to handle thisgrowth in an equipment and personnel-constrained

…Here Is What We Say Today

growth in an equipment and personnel-constrainedindustry

• For example, this is 10,000 more mixer trucks needed tohandle this volume

Page 75: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

• If the growth in GNP, which has been slow but steady, canpick up speed and fuel further employments gains, thesepositive trends will bolster consumer sentiment and helpspeed the recovery

• We believe we will end the year north of 300 million cubic

…Here Is What We Say Today

• We believe we will end the year north of 300 million cubicyards, followed by a big improvement in 2013

By 2014-15, get ready for a strong ride!

Page 76: Villere Predicts Growth in 2012

And Finally…

Thank You!Thank You!