vincenzi presentation in rome in july 2011 for firb 2010
DESCRIPTION
FIRB presentation by Simone Vincenzi in 2011 in RomeTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Assessing rapid evolutionary responses in natural populations to climate change and intensification of weather extremes:
Ministero dell’Istruzione, Università e Ricerca Rome 26/07/2011
F
I
R
B
extremes:an integrated approach combining genetics and evolutionary modeling
Principal Investigator: Simone VincenziInstitution: Università di Parma
2
0
1
0
![Page 2: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
My research interests
• Adaptive processes and traits increasing resilience of natural populations
• Climate change and evolution of life-histories
University of
NOOA Santa Cruz
life-histories
Murres Northern fur seals Salmon
University of California
![Page 3: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Climate change
IPCC, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change.
Most likely
![Page 4: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate change and extreme events
Catastrophes
Max F
low
Time (yrs)
100-yr flood
Climate change ����
increased intensity, altered frequency and seasonality of catastropic events
![Page 5: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Natural populations and climate change
• (i) move (ii) adapt (iii) die
• Rapid responses and adaptations
• Adaptations to altered patterns of catastropicevents?
• Lack of methods and model systems
Kittiwake Coral fishArtic Fox
![Page 6: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Novel approach
• Combining:
– molecular genetics (genes under selection and genetic variation)
– demography and life-histories
– climate predictions
– eco-evolutionary simulation framework
• Predicting:
– risk of extinction
– adaptations
– population dynamics (size, fluctuations, age and size structure)
![Page 7: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Marble trout
Trebuscica Marble troutSalmo marmoratus
10 wild isolated populations in Slovenia
monitored since 1996
> 10,000 individuals sampled
fish farm experiments
Distribution of marble trout
Marking
![Page 8: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Marble trout populations
• 3 basins
• 30-500 fish in eachpopulation
• Isolated for 1000s of
Baca Idrijca Soca
9
10
• Isolated for 1000s ofyrs
• High among-populationgenetic differentiation
• Extremely low within-population geneticvariability
• Genetic bottlenecks at neutral loci
1
1 Gatsnik
2 Zadlascica
3 Lipovscek
4 Huda Grapa
5 Svenica
6 Studenc
7 Trebuscica
8 Upper Idrica
9 Zakojska
10 Gorska
![Page 9: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Marble trout and climate change
Major flood
Medium flood
SS���� Spring
AA���� Autumn
YEAR
STREAM BASIN 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Huda AA AA AA SS
Zakojska AA AA SSBaca
Gorska AA AA
Lipovesck Soca AA AA AA AA AA SS AA
Zadlascica AA AA AA SS AA
Trebuscica AA AA AA AA SS SS
Studenc AA AA AA AA SS SSIdrijca
Idrijca AA AA SS SS
Gatsnick AA AA SS SS
Svenica AA AA AA SS SS
9
1
0
1
![Page 10: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Main Research Questions
i. Molecular genetics
– adaptive divergence (among populations)
– adaptive evolution through time (within populations)
ii. Demographic and statistical analysesii. Demographic and statistical analyses
– adaptive life-histories and plasticity
– present and future patterns of floods
iii. Eco-evolutionary modeling
– evolutionary history
– evolution of life-histories and genetic composition with climate change
![Page 11: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Research Unit
Parma Research Unit
Modeling Genetics
Research Unit
Research groups
Institutions
Parma PadovaNOAA SC
All leading research groups in their fields
Statistics &Modeling
Salmonid genetics
Adaptive genetics
![Page 12: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Work plan
Mol genetics Field data Fish farm
I year
Demographic model
Mol genetics
II year
Flood patterns
Eco-evolutionary model
Selective forces Predictions
Mol genetics
III year
![Page 13: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Molecular genetics
SNP
• Adaptive geneticdifferentiation
- body growth
- time of spawning
- morphology
• SNPs as molecular markers• SNPs as molecular markers
• Discovery using NextGeneration Sequencing
• SNPs discovery will beoutsourced
• Genome regions under selection, candidate loci, QTLs
• Heritability
![Page 14: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Eco-Evolutionary Model
• Complex quantitative genetic traits
• Different levels of biological organization
Past environments
Mean traits
Climate change Novelenvironment
Individual fitness
Population performance
• What happened? - Approximate Bayesian Computation
• What will happen? - Forward Stochastic Simulations
Evolutionary history
Plasticity
Genetic variation
fitness
Evolution
performance
Population size
Persistence
![Page 15: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Specific aims and expected results
• Conservation of marble trout
• Conservation of fish population
• Disentangle contributions of ecology
Local
• Disentangle contributions of ecology and environmental factors on evolution
• Methodology for predicting consequences of intensification of weather extremes
Global
![Page 16: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Why fund this project?
• Model system
• Research questions of exceptional relevance
• Novel integrated methodology
• Interdisciplinary, international and outstanding expertise
Novelenvironment
Individual fitness
Evolution
Population performance
Population size
Persistence
![Page 17: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Assessing rapid evolutionary responses in natural populations to climate change and intensification of weather extremes:
Ministero dell’Istruzione, Università e Ricerca Rome 26/07/2011
F
I
R
B
extremes:an integrated approach combining genetics and evolutionary modeling
Principal Investigator: Simone VincenziInstitution: Università di Parma
2
0
1
0
![Page 18: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
FinancingCo-financing Hiring
General expenses
P.I. salaryChiara fama
Expenses
P.I. A.1.1 A.1.2 A.2 B C.1 C.2 D E F G Total
Simone Vincenzi
€181,458 €0 €120,000 €261,275 €134,000 €0 €5,000 €15,000 €0 €19,875 €736,608
• Modeling
- statistics
- eco-informatics
• Molecular genetics
- adaptive divergence
- parentage analysis
![Page 19: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Financing
![Page 20: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Body growth
![Page 21: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Approximate Bayesian Computation
![Page 22: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Population collapses
![Page 23: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Eco-Evolutionary Model
• Complex quantitative traits
• Stochastic simulations
• Backward (ApproximateBayesian Computation)
What are the most likely– What are the most likelycombination ofparameters?
• Forward
– Persistence? Extinction?
– Demographic or evolutionary
– Management actions
![Page 24: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Novelties in methods
• SNPs as molecular marker discovered with NGS
– genome regions under selection (body growth, time of spawning, morphology), candidate loci, QTLs
– Parentage analysis with extremely low – Parentage analysis with extremely low variability (heritability)
• Integration of genetics, field data, experiments
• Eco-evolutionarymodeling with individual-based models
![Page 25: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Costs of SNPs discovery and genotyping
![Page 26: Vincenzi presentation in Rome in July 2011 for FIRB 2010](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042816/5591efb71a28abdb278b4593/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Costs of SNPs discovery and genotyping