Violence in Argentina Trends and Questions

Diego M. Fleitas Ortiz de Rozas

Msc in Public Policy (Oxford) Sociologist and Lawyer (UBA), Director Asocación para Políticas Públicas

Buenos Aires – Celiv- Dicember 2014

Homicide Data Sources

• Modern Sources

– Health Data (CIE 10) – Ministry of Justice (SNIC), based on police records – Local sources

• Historical Sources – Anuario Demográfico/Atlas sanitario. Circa 1900, – Anuario Estadístico de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires – Registro Nacional de Reincidentes y Estadística Criminal y

Carcelaria 1933 – Memorias del Departamento de Policía, from 1868, – Memorias Penitenciaria Nacional from 1877 – Prision census – Census

Argentina: Homicides and Suicides Evolution Quantities - Health and Justice (Snic) Data Sources

2731

3002

3216

2607 2668 2653

3048

3453

2876

2259

2115 2052 2071

2305

3173 3262

3570 3693 3570

4630

3837

2996 2847

2669 2789 2847

2935

2760 2794 2888

2578

2658 2735

3123

2735

3300

3377

3204 3161 3206 3140

3463 3314

3487 3563

3875

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Homicides (Justice) Homicides (Health) Suicides (Health)

Suicides

Homicides Health

Homicides Justice

7.2 Homicide Rate

8.3 Suicide Rate

A glimpse of the Past

• Buenos Aires City

1890 - 44 cases 8,5 rate per 100,000

1900 - 86 cases 10 rate

1910 - 118 cases 9,3 rate

• Buenos Aires Province

1909 - 443 cases - 22 rate (aprox)

• Most cases were related to quarrels, personal or political violence, just a very small proportion was caused by robberies.

• Lower quality of health services probably provoked higher levels of mortality , with fewer violent events

Sources: Blacwelder et al 1984, Johnson &Wolfson, 1989, Caimari,2012, Slatta 1980

Within Argentina

there are many

different stories

going on…

Homicides by Province in

2012

Quantities, Rates and % difference

with 2011 (Health Data)

Cantidad Tasa % Dif 12vs11

Capital Federal 190* 6,6 -20,2Buenos Aires 1.314 8,4 8,8Catamarca 11 3 37,5Cordoba 141 4,3 -1,4Corrientes 41 4,1 5,1Chaco 63 6 -10Chubut 80 15,7 60Entre Rios 82 6,6 46,4Formosa 50 9,4 13,6Jujuy 24 3,6 -27,3La Pampa 15 4,7 -16,7La Rioja 8 2,4 -33,3Mendoza 137 7,9 3Misiones 89 8,1 -5,3Neuquen 52 9,4 8,3Rio Negro 49 7,7 -5,8Salta 68 5,6 54,5San Juan 18 2,6 -33,3San Luis 14 3,2 16,7Santa Cruz 18 6,6 -5,3Santa Fe 309 9,7 -1Sgo.del Estero 36 4,1 -26,5Tucuman 72 5 -12,2T.Del Fuego 5 3,9 66,7

Homicide Evolution Selected Provinces – Constant numbers, 1997 base 100 (Health Data)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Prov BsAs Córdoba Santa Fe Chubut

Prov. Bs. As

175

Santa Fe

67

102

77

88

Chubut Córdoba

145

133

67

Even within Provinces there is a strong variation… Homicides Rates and % Change in Selected Deparments of Buenos Aires Province

Source: Own elaboration with Health data

Tasa Anual

Promedio

San Fernando 4,3 -56,3 ↓

Tigre 6,1 -41 ↓

San Isidro 6,5 -40,6 ↓

Malvinas Argentinas 7,1 -38,7 ↓

Almirante Brown 7,2 -16,7 ↓

Lomas de Zamora 11,2 -0,7 ≈

San Vicente 3,4 33,3 ↑

La Matanza 9,6 34,4 ↑

Marcos Paz 6,5 40 ↑

Gral. Pueyrredón 13,7 66,7 ↑

MunicipioVar %

07-8 /11-12

Argentina: Evolution of Homicides, Inequality, Poverty and Unemployment. 1997 base 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gini 1 =10 (Cedlas) Poverty (Cedlas) Unemployment INDEC Homicides (Health)

29%

4.630

21%

0,53

Poverty

Homicides

Unemployment

Gini

Longitudinal relation between Armed Robbery of Cars and Homicides with Firearms in Argentina Quantities and constant numbers. Cesvi data 2001 base 100

In a cross sectional regression among Provinces appeared a relation between armed

Robbery and Firearms Homicides R2 ,375

Relation between Physical Assault of Women (not

linked with robberies) and Alcohol Abuse by Provincies

Additional possible Explanations

• Political, Institutional and Policy Problems

• Increase of alcohol and drugs abuse particularly in young people

• Increase of areas with excluded population and with low State control. Villas Miserias

• Risks groups growth. I.E. Young people who do not study or work

• Increase and violent dynamics in illegal markets and by illegal organizations

• Long term social and cultural changes?

Thank You

www.app.org.ar

Attachments

Relation between Homicides in Buenos Aires City and Unemployment rate in the Metropolitan Area AMBA

1995-2005 2006-2009

No significative

In the whole period (95/09) the R2 is 0,419 sig 0,004 1995 to 2005 has an R2 of 0.483 sig. 0.018 2006 to 2009 has a R2 (negative) of 0.917 sig. 0.42 ( without significance).

Something similar ocurres in the relation between unemployment and other robberies

Relation of Physical Assault with Alcohol Abuse and Robbery by Provinces

Betas Standardized - Population Victim of Armed Robbery ,757, - Alcohol Abuses in Population ,463

R2 ,744,

Evolution of the 18 to 24 years old group, which neither study nor work, in Buenos Aires City and “Gran Buenos Aires” Quantities – Disaggregated by Jurisdiction and if they are Inactive or Unemployed.

25000

45000

65000

85000

105000

125000

145000

165000

185000

205000

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Desocupados e Inactivos CABA Inactivos Granba Desocupados Granba

Evolución de los Niveles de Desigualdad en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires Coeficiente Gini y de Ratio de los Ingresos deciles 1 y 10 de la Población

Fuente: Información y gráfico copiados del Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, 2010

Regression to explain the homicide level by department in the Buenos Aires Province in 2005

• R2 0,581, • Betas

– Demographic Density B s ,552 – NBI ,438,

• R2 0,581, step wise”, cuyo mejor ajuste fue con las variables densidad

demográfica y % de NBI de la población, y cuyo resultado fue un R cuadrado corregido de 0,581, con un Error Típico de la Estimación de 3,46365. Los valores B estandarizados de Densidad y NBI fueron y ,438, respectivamente y en ambos casos con una significancia de 000.

Different Homicide Scope in the Buenos Aires Province depending the data source

Argentina: Inequality, Poverty and Unemployment

4,5 4,4 4,5 4,8 4,9 4,8 5,0 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,3 5,3 5,1 4,9 4,8 4,7 4,6 4,6 4,4

5,9 6,7 6,5

9,6 11,0

10,0 11,5

12,1

14,2

18,7

29,2

24,3

19,7

15,4

12,5

9,2

8,5

8,0

6,6

6,9

9,9 10,7

18,4 17,1

16,1

13,2 14,5

15,4 16,4

21,5 20,4

14,4 13,0

11,4 9,8

8,4

8,4 8,3 7,4 7,1

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gini 1 =10 (Cedlas) Poverty (Cedlas) Unemployment INDEC

2006 Homicides Bottom Line

Relation between homicides of young women with Analphabetism and Armed Robbery by Provinces

R. Negro 7,7

Chaco 5,4

L. Rioja 5

Tucumán 4,8

Jujuy 4,2

Sgo Del Estero 4,2

Formosa 4,1

CABA 3,7

Corrientes 3,7

Misiones 3,4

Santa Fe 3,3

Bs As 2,9

Mendoza 2,8

L. Pampa 2,5

Córdoba 1,8

Salta 1,8

Chubut 1,7

Neuquén 1,5

Entre Ríos 1,3

S. Juan 1,2

Catamarca 0

San Luís 0

Sta. Cruz 0

Rate 2007/2009

Multivariable Linear Regression R2 de 0,741 Standardized Betas: Analphabetism 0,812 Women Robbed with Arms 0,669

Analphabetism works as a proxy of development, and in the regression excluded other variables due to colinearity