Virginia’s Growing Mature& Diverse Population:Implications for the

Transportation Sector

Kevin F Byrnes, AICP kevin.byrnes@vda.virginia.gov

Aging Demographer

Virginia Department for the Aging

Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas

Short-term Trends: 2000 – 2003

1. Migration > Natural Increase

2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth

3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic

Diversity

Demographic Change:

P1 = P0 + Components of Change:

Natural Increase: (Births0-1 – Deaths0-1) + Net Migration: (In-Migrants0-1 – Out-Migrants0-1)

+ residual

Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Virginia: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003

Geographic area

Total population

change*

National Residual

Natural increase Net migration

Total Births Deaths TotalNet

international migration

Net internal

migration

Virginia 307,847 2,352 137,243 321,528 184,285 168,252 90,536 77,716

Share of Change 100.0% 0.76% 44.58% 104.44% 59.86% 54.65% 29.41% 25.25%

Table 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 (NST-EST2003-04)

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Release Date: December 18, 2003; Last Revised Date: May 11, 2004.

-2,5000

2,5005,0007,500

10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,00032,50035,00037,50040,00042,50045,00047,50050,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17/18 19 20 21 22

Population Change, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA

Total Pop Abs Change 60+ Pop Abs Change

Increasing Racial Diversity

-5,000

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17/18 19 20 21 22

Comparative Change, White & Non-White Population, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA

All Whites Total Pop Abs Change All Non-Whites Total Pop Abs Change

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617/1819 20 21 22

Change in Hispanic Population, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA

All Hispanics and/or Latinos Total Pop Abs Change

All Hispanics and/or Latinos 60+ Pop Abs Change

Increasing Ethnic Diversity

Top 15 Non-English-Speaking Population Groupsin Virginia by Age Cohort, 2000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000

Spanish

Tagalog

French

Korean

German

Chinese

Vietnamese

Persian

Arabic

Hindi

Urdu

Italian

Russian

Greek

Japanese

60+ Early Boomers: Age 45-54 Late Boomers: Age 36-44

Changing Age Structure: The Baby-Boom Tidal Wave

• Boomers born between 1946 & 1964• Year 2000: Boomers = Persons aged 36-54• Year 2004: Boomers = Persons aged 40-58• Year 2006: Boomers = Persons aged 42-60• Year 2010: Boomers = Persons aged 46-64• Year 2016: Boomers = Persons aged 52-70• Year 2024: Boomers = Persons aged 60-78

Virginia’s Projected Population Growth,

2000 - 2030

The Growing Importance of Senior Cohort

K – 12 Population

Baby-Boomers

Seniors, Age 60+

Boomer : Senior Ratio

K -1 2 : Senior Ratio

1990 1,173,737 2,017,596 909,960 2.217 1.290

2000 1,378,355 2,078,317 1,065,642 1.950 1.293

2010 1,404,554 2,014,055 1,448,609 1.390 0.970

2020 1,502,020 1,788,379 1,894,833 0.944 0.793

2030 1,630,783 1,428,740 2,258,425 0.633 0.722

Demographic Trends, 2000 - 2025

Trends in Life Expectancy

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.0

Tota

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Mal

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Fem

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Tota

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Mal

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Fem

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Tota

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Fem

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All Races White Black

US Life Expectancy by Age, 2000

At Birth 1 Year 20 Years 40 Years 60 Years 80 Years 100 Years

Life Expectancy Change (in Years): by Age, Race, and Sex, United States

(1950 - 2000)

Age

All Races White Black

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

At Birth 8.93 8.83 8.74 8.58 8.59 8.07 11.17 9.39 12.50

1 7.41 7.07 7.36 7.05 6.89 6.83 9.25 7.34 10.83

10 6.96 6.65 6.92 6.62 6.52 6.44 8.60 6.64 10.23

20 6.80 6.38 6.77 6.49 6.28 6.34 8.31 6.27 9.83

30 6.59 6.22 6.52 6.38 6.11 6.10 7.61 5.79 8.98

40 6.29 5.91 6.14 6.11 5.93 5.86 6.72 5.01 7.98

50 5.70 5.31 5.60 5.60 5.37 5.44 5.52 3.95 6.43

60 4.66 4.22 3.78 4.65 4.24 4.76 3.63 2.39 4.25

70 3.58 2.89 3.33 3.61 2.93 4.02 1.82 0.76 2.21

80 2.36 1.66 2.58 2.33 1.62 2.61 0.88 0.23 0.95

90 1.26 0.80 1.75 1.19 0.73 1.29 1.03 0.62 1.07

100 0.78 0.48 0.89 0.48 0.28 0.58 1.06 0.87 1.06

What Lies Ahead? Projected US Life Expectancy Range:

Life ExpectancyAT BIRTH 1999 2025 2050 2100

Total Male 74.0 – 74.1 76.5 – 79.1 79.5 – 83.8 85.0 – 92.3

Total Female 79.7 – 79.8 82.6 – 84.6 84.9 – 88.4 89.3 – 95.2

White, NH Male 74.7 – 74.7 76.9 – 79.2 79.5 – 83.5 84.8 – 91.8

White, NH Female 80.1 – 80.1 82.6 – 84.5 84.8 – 88.0 89.0 – 94.6

Black, NH Male 68.3 – 68.5 72.4 – 75.3 76.6 – 81.3 83.9 – 91.4

Black, NH Female 75.1 – 75.2 79.3 – 81.7 82.7 – 86.5 88.4 – 94.5

Am Indian, NH Male 72.8 – 73.0 77.2 – 80.1 80.3 – 84.9 85.6 – 92.9

Am Indian, NH Female

82.0 – 82.1 85.3 – 87.7 87.3 – 91.0 90.6 – 96.5

Asian, NH Male 80.8 – 80.9 81.5 – 83.8 83.2 – 87.1 86.6 – 93.5

Asian, NH Female 86.5 – 86.6 86.8 – 88.7 88.1 – 91.2 90.7 – 96.2

Hispanic Males 77.1 – 77.2 79.0 – 81.5 81.4 – 85.5 85.8 – 92.9

Hispanic Females 83.7 – 83.8 85.1 – 87.1 86.8 – 90.0 90.1 – 95.6NH = “Non-Hispanic”

Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC 20233. Jan 13, 2000.

Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Persons

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Yea

rAging Trends in Virginia

Under 60 60 - 74 75 - 84 85+

Possible Impact of

Aging Trends on

Virginia’s

Transportation Sector

•In 2003, Virginia’s population age 60 & over represented 15.6% of the state total, compared to Florida’s 22.4% (1st in the Nation)

•Based on national projections, Virginia’s age 60+ population share (24.3%) in 2025 will be roughly comparable to Florida’s current age structure (persons age 60+ =22.4% of total in 2003).

Estimated & Projected Licensees, by AgeLicensees by

Age/Total Population

1999 Pct License

d

2010 2020 2030

Age 60 – 64 243,016255,057

95.3 % 413,976434,392

510,410535,582

482,960506,779

Age 65 – 69 198,323228,346

86.8 % 274,995316,815

377,753435,199

434,904501,042

Age 70 – 74 167,101199,615

83.7 % 193,811231,554

290,489347,060

362,831433,490

Age 75 – 79 126,465161,947

78.1 % 141,087180,649

191,350245,006

273,616350,340

Age 80 – 84 66,593100,961

65.9 % 92,091139,744

105,031159,380

160,847244,077

Age 85 + 30,65384,016

36.5 % 53,091145,454

63,002172,607

81,284222,697

Age 60 & over 832,1511,029,94

2

80.8 % 1,169,051

1,448,608

1,538,0351,894,834

1,796,442

2,258,425

“Driving Age” Household Population Forecast

Age Group

Estimated

2000 2010 2020 2030Total

Population 7,078,512 7,892,900 8,601,900 9,275,100Driving AgePopulation 4,806,082 5,359,025 5,840,413 6,297,490Under 65

Yrs 4,057,055 4,412,683 4,576,762 4,670,863

65 - 74 Yrs 425,265 540,736 770,702 920,192

75 - 84 yrs 255,857 298,524 373,484 552,279

85 yrs + 67,905 107,082 119,465 154,15665 Yrs &

over 749,027 946,342 1,263,651 1,626,627Pct Drivers,

Age 65+ 15.6 % 17.7 % 21.6 % 25.8 %

Mean Daily Trips & Miles Forecast:

Senior Drivers2000 2010 2020 2030Virginia

Drivers, 65 Yrs & over 749,027 946,342 1,263,651 1,626,627

Mean Number of Daily Trips*,

Persons Age 65+3.4 3.4

Estimated No of Daily Vehicle Trips

by Persons Age 65+

2,546,692 3,217,563 4,204,613 5,530,532

Est. No of Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled*,

Persons Age 65+17.0 17.0

Estimated No of Miles Traveled,

Persons Age 65+

12,733,459

16,087,814

21,482,067 27,652,659

* SOURCE: The 2001 National Household Travel Survey, person file, U.S. Department of Transportation. (Link)

Traffic Fatalities by State

Traffic Fatalities

Fatality RateDeaths per 100 million vehicle miles travelled

2002 1980 2002Virginia 914 2.7 1.2

Florida 3,132 3.6 1.8

Source: US Statistical Abstract: 2004-2005, Table No 1090, page 697

Estimated & Projected Traffic Fatalities: Senior Virginians

2000 2010 2020 2030Virginia Drivers, Age 65 - 74

425,265

540,736

770,702 920,192

Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate)

17.31

Traffic Fatalities, 65-74

74 94 133 159

Virginia Drivers, Age 75 & over

323,762

405,606

492,949 706,435

Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate)

26.47

Traffic Fatalities, 75 & over

86 107 130 187

Total Traffic Fatalities, 65+ 160 201 263 346

Vehicles/Household by Age of Householder, 2000

AGE GROUP Total

Population

Household Population

No Vehicle Available

Percent of Household Population w/o Vehicle

Estimated Mean

Vehicles per Person

TOTAL 7,080,588 6,848,776 394,839 5.7 % 2.098

60 & over 1,062,782 1,017,265 106,868 10.5 % 1.824

65 & over 788,814 745,810 91,657 12.3 % 1.730

70 & over 568,051 528,111 75,337 14.3 % 1.655

75 & over 362,668 327,000 58,086 17.8 % 1.564

80 & over 199,655 171,015 38,182 22.3 % 1.493

85 & over 90,783 71,998 19,933 27.7 % 1.456

Baby-Boomers =

36 – 54 yrs2,089,303 2,052,993 87,493 4.2 % 2.212

Work Status & Vehicle Availability for Older Virginians, 60 & over, 2000Virginians, Age 60 & over

NumberPercent of Total

Percent, by Employment Status,

Without Vehicle

Mean Vehicles

Per Person

Employed 221,741 21.8 % 4.2 % 2.028

Employed, Not at Work

5,127 .5 % 3.6 % 1.983

Armed Forces

11 .0 % 0.0 % 2.000

Unemployed 5,763 .6 % 8.3 % 1.831

Not in Labor Force

781,358 76.8 % 11.7 % 1.734

Sample Error 3,265 .3 % NA NA

Estimated Total

1,017,265 100.0 % 10.5 % 1.788

Source: 2000 Census, PUMS Data, 5% Sample of Persons.

Age Differences in Commuter Mode Choice, 2000

Commuter Mode Choice

Employed Workers (Percent of Total)

Under Age 60

Early Boomer (45-54)

Late Boomer(36 - 44)

Age 60 & over

Car, truck, or van 90.4 %  90.9 %  91.6 %  86.4 % 

Bus or trolley bus 1.7 %  1.4 %  1.5 %  1.5 % 

Streetcar or trolley car 0.0 %  0.0 %  0.0 %  0.0 % 

Subway or elevated 1.7 %  1.7 %  1.4 %  1.3 % 

Railroad 0.0 %  0.2 %  0.2 %  0.1 % 

Ferryboat 0.0 %  0.0 %  0.0 %  0.0 % 

Taxicab 0.1 %  0.1 %  0.1 %  0.1 % 

Motorcycle 0.1 %  0.1 %  0.1 %  0.1 % 

Bicycle 0.2 %  0.1 %  0.2 %  0.1 % 

Walked 2.1 %  1.4 %  1.4 %  2.2 % 

Worked at home 2.8 %  3.4 %  2.9 %  7.5 % 

Other method 0.7 %  0.6 %  0.7 %  0.8 %

TOTAL 100.0 %  100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %

Contact Information:

Kevin F Byrnes, AICPDemographerVirginia Department for the Aging1610 Forest Ave, Suite 100Richmond, VA 23229

(804) 662-7047Kevin.Byrnes@vda.virginia.gov http://www.vda.virginia.gov/downloadable.htm