Where are we?

a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse

Where are we?

a path from where we’ve just been to the metaverse

Robots on the Job

We think we know what the metaverse looks like.

What does this vision really mean?

A space shown on a screen that allows you to:

• have a more human interaction with other people than via any other communication medium

• share experiences

• easily navigate in 3D & 2D environments

• use many applications: entertainment, shopping, real social networking, events

• innovate new applications that we haven’t thought of yet

• millions of publishers creating compatible environments

• intertwined with the Web and audio devices

Primary Value: Remote presence with other people.Scale: more user time than today’s Web.

Vision: As close as we can get to teleporting and the technology to build valuable applications.

PROBLEM:

REQUIRES

VISIONTechnology

WE HAVETODAY

Technology

BIGGER PROBLEM:E

cono

mic

Rew

ard

Technology

While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive...

Metaverse

BIGGER PROBLEM:E

cono

mic

Rew

ard

Technology

While lots of technology can be created when there is continuous economic incentive...

Metaverse

Eco

nom

ic R

ewar

d

Technology

...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path.

Metaverse

BIGGER PROBLEM:

BIGGER PROBLEM:E

cono

mic

Rew

ard

Technology

...directly building the 3D Metaverse has a very unrewarding development path.

Metaverse

What IS all this mysterious missing technology?

(it’s complicated...)

Architecture

Content System

Comm

unication

Navigation

Adoption

Other

Software and feature requirements for a successful Metaverse fall into several categories:

Architecture

Viewerinterface

communication

rendering

Server

Content

Services

Communication,Search...

Could be Web browser

load balancing

accounts

UGC tools

Apps

...

Open and Optimized Protocols

...

Content System

• Content distribution separate from all other systems

• Publish any 0 to 2D content via existing Web infrastructure (video to images to text to data parameters, etc.)

• Deliver content via network, local disk, caching, and edge networks

• Make improved use of hardware acceleration and any rendering engines

• Use of content definition standards

• Separate creation from publishing of content- WYSIWYG, real-time content creation tools

- As-needed content streaming

- Publishing step converting content to an efficient format from editing format

Comm

unication

• Competitively created, embedded communication tools

- similar to Web interfaces to e-mail or chat, the Metaverse will need embedded interfaces to audio, video, and chat

- hardware input for non-verbal communication (expressions; perhaps 3D cameras)

• Interoperate if not embed directly existing systems - phone, skype, IM networks, etc.

• Next generation social networking features

- integration with existing systems

- real-time common interest notification in social surroundings

Navigation

• Semi-automated generation of point-and-click choices for multi-step navigation - more semantic-level navigation

- MMOs and existing kids worlds could improve in this regard

• Easier navigation of spaces via mouse and possibly other input devices

• Search for places, events, applications using

- ontological knowledge

- wisdom of the crowd: tags, learning, collaborative filtering, etc.

Adoption

• Competitive on-ramp experiences created for specific applications/audiences as well as for use by many content publishers

• Move registration into the world

- provide more pre-registration experience

- create a VW version of CAPTCHA

• Quest and help style orientations with NPC’s

- make more open ended what has been done well in the video game industry

Today’s entry experiences into VWs are largely very poor...

Other

• Simple use on living room HD TVs

• Integration with consoles

• Video streams with DRM rendered

• NPCs (non-player characters) controlled via 3rd party services

• Thorough permission tools using age verification, geo-location systems available today

• Recording features and (a)synchronous publication on the Web

• Name space coordination for public spaces (URLs and IDs)

• Data recording and access for commerce, advertising, and reporting

• Integration with many payment methods for virtual & real currencies

• Natural Language content creation, manipulation

• Competitively developed tools for everything from content creation to load balancing to advertising models to event management, etc.

• etc.

Example: Kids’ Virtual Worlds

Digital Kids

Games +Constant Content Updates + G

ames

Virtu

al Goo

ds

(stat

us/s

elf-e

xpre

ssion

)

Currency

+Metaverse

Special Sauce(presence)

+ physical product+ known brand+ retail stores

CompulsionLoop

=

=

PROBLEM:

1. With so many virtual worlds, attention will be divided and hard to get.

2. Competition will rapidly ramp up production costs:- 3d with better graphics- more sophisticated interfaces- content beyond the same flash games

3. Major brands will create VWs as a marketing cost, all but eliminating subscription revenue

4. Advertising revenue will be limited

PROBLEM: The Big Squeeze

Less user time and higher marketing costs

Less Revenue Per User

Much Higher Production Costs

2008

Movie Industry Dynamic

Big Budgets

Occasional Huge Hits

Most hits leverage a brand

by 2010: Many brands will choose to participate within other successful VWs.

Architecture

Content System

Comm

unication

Navigation

Adoption

Other

Some of the innovation toward Metaverse technology will be driven by competition among kids virtual worlds.

Open Question: Beyond 2008, how much of this new technology will be available for use in other applications?

Eco

nom

ic R

ewar

d

Technology

Kids’ Worlds are starting to generate significant new Metaverse technology in 2008.

Metaverse

Most Successful K

ids’ World

s

2007

2008

2009

Eco

nom

ic R

ewar

d

Technology

Companies with long-term focus are starting to fund the direct-build approach.

Metaverse

OpenSim

Eco

nom

ic R

ewar

d

Technology

Metaverse

Linden Lab created a profitable MMO with a few key innovations on the path to the Metaverse (e.g. in-world UGC and streamed content).

Architecture

Content System

Comm

unication

Navigation

Adoption

Other

The Opportunity is to find minimal technology sets that will serve one Metaverse application completely...

Use pieces that exist, that are being created by vendors & open source projects for kids’ worlds, and add to them...

Most Killer Apps require too much progress to be successful in 2008-9.

e.g. Consumer Shopping in virtual environments will eventually be larger than it is on the Web today, but many barriers remain to creating a great experience.

What will realistically bring about the Metaverse?

Answer: An evolution of the Web from

A Platform for:Data publishing andData-driven application

to alsoA Platform for:

Shared experiences andSimulated spaces

Biggest spending across many companies...

2006-7 Second Life2007-9 Kids’ Worlds2009-? Community Web sites:

Social NetworkingDatingFantasy SportsTV Show sitesCelebrity GossipEducationAnything with lots of fansetc.

To Be Continued...

http://blogs.electricsheepcompany.com/sibley/

Monday, April 7th, in search of a technical and business roadmap to the Metaverse: