vision 2050: sustainable transport in asia and the...
TRANSCRIPT
Vision 2050: Sustainable Transport in
Asia and the Pacific
Better Air Quality Conference 2012
Lloyd Wright [email protected]
Hong Kong 5 December 2012
Asia-Pacific transport in 2050
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." Lao Tzu, philosopher, 6th century BC
Part I. ADB’s Sustainable Transport Initiative
Sustainable Transport Initiative
Adopted in 2010 to transform ADB’s transport lending
Priority areas 1. Urban transport
2. Transport and climate
change
3. Logistics and cross-border transport
4. Road safety and social sustainability
ADB’s 2020 targets
2000-2009
Roads Rail Water Air Urban
2020
Roads Rail Water Air Urban
78% road
30% urban
42% road
1% urban 17% rail
25% rail
Percent of transport-sector loan portfolio
Project pipeline: Non-motorized transport
1. Davao, Philippines 2. Delhi National Capital
Region, India
3. Dhaka, Bangladesh
4. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
5. Kathmandu, Nepal
6. Medan, Indonesia
7. Pasig City, Philippines
8. Vientiane, Lao PDR
Project pipeline: Urban rail
1. Astana, Kazakhstan (LRT)
2. Bangalore, India (Metro)
3. Ha Noi, Viet Nam (Metro)
4. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
(Metro)
5. Tbilisi, Georgia (Metro)
6. Baku, Azerbaijan (Metro)
8
Project pipeline: Bus Rapid Transit
1. Davao, Philippines 2. Dhaka, Bangladesh
3. Jiangxi Fuzhou, PRC
4. Jiangxi Ji’an, PRC
5. Lanzhou, PRC
6. Ulaanbaatar,
Mongolia
7. Yichang, PRC
Lanzhou BRT: Opening in 2013
Rio+20 commitment
US$ 175 billion
Amount committed to transport by the 8 major multi-lateral development banks over the next 10 years
Part II. Global Transport Intelligence Initiative
Transport Data Outlook for Asia and the Pacific
Collect core transport data figures for Asia and the Pacific
Provide projections to 2050
Coordinate with data from other world regions
Projections developed under
ADB’s Sustainable Fuel
Partnership
Sustainable transport projections to 2050
Core project partners
Asian Development Bank
International Energy
Agency
Oxford University
With funding from the Government of Austria
Leveraging value for sustainable transport
Health Credits Fuel Security Credits Carbon Credits
Land Value Capture
Fuel Levies Parking Levies Congestion Pricing
Road Safety Credits
Funding Sustainable Transport
Energy security as a global
concern…and an opportunity
Fuel Security Credits
Developing Nation Low levels of fixed
infrastructure Low-cost fuel reductions
Developed Nation High levels of fixed
infrastructure High-cost fuel reduction
Global fuel price reduction / price
volatility reduction
Investment
Business-as-usual projections to 2050
Source: ADB and IEA, 2011
Cars and motorcycles
Percentage of passenger-kilometers in Asia and the Pacific
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2020
2030 2040
2050
Public transport, walking and cycling
Cars and motorcycles
Mo
de
sh
are
(p
-km
)
Asia and Pacific population projections
City population size
Number of Cities
2010 2025 2050
Less than 500,000 3,692 5,236 6,878
500,000 to 1 million 203 225 282
1 million to 5 million 179 246 303
5 million to 10 million 17 22 30
Over 10 million 8 13 23
Source: UNESA, 2010
2030 2050
Low High Low High
1. Transit-oriented
development 1.18% 4.12% 2.65% 9.07%
2. Telemobility 0.24% 1.38% 0.42% 3.14%
Avoid interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline
2030 2050
Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive
1. Fuel Levy 1.59% 4.61% 2.42% 7.04%
2. Parking Levy 0.52% 2.06% 0.68% 2.38%
3. Bus Rapid Transit 0.39% 1.56% 1.12% 4.49%
4. Non-Motorized Vehicles 0.45% 0.87% 1.13% 2.28%
5. Elevated Urban Rail 0.25% 0.83% 0.64% 2.23%
6. Congestion Pricing 0.26% 0.70% 0.33% 0.92%
7. Underground Metro 0.14% 0.62% 0.26% 1.56%
8. Pedestrian Facilities 0.22% 0.43% 0.55% 1.132%
9. High-Speed Rail 0.11% 0.25% 0.16% 0.40%
Shift interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline
2030 2050
Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive
1. Freight Efficiency 5.93% 7.19% 6.95% 11.40%
2. Fuel Economy Standards 0.91% 3.22% 4.73% 9.36%
3. Electric Vehicles 1.15% 2.31% 2.86% 5.71%
4. Biomethane Vehicles 0.62% 1.23% 1.54% 3.09%
5. Hybrid Vehicles 0.22% 0.44% 0.53% 1.06%
6. Biofuel Vehicles 0.11% 0.21% 0.11% 0.22%
Improve interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline
2030 2050
Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive
1. Avoid-Shift-Improve
Package 12.93% 23.69% 22.08% 41.48%
2. Improve Package 6.38% 13.85% 11.79% 22.02%
3. Shift Package 2.24% 6.80% 4.39% 12.23%
4. Avoid Package 1.42% 5.43% 3.06% 11.86%
Packaged interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline
Avoid Shift Improve + +
Conclusion from analysis
By 2050, sustainable transport interventions
can reduce annual transport oil consumption in Asia by up to 41% and
reduce global oil consumption by 11%
through technologies that are commercially viable
today
Expenditures to 2050 in Asia and the Pacific 2050
Category Amount (US$)
Infrastructure $59 trillion
Vehicles $162 trillion
Fuels $52 trillion
Operations & maintenance
$3 trillion
Total $276 trillion
Source: ADB and IEA, 2011
Part III. Communicating and using the data
Tipping points: Bus Rapid Transit
New York bus lane Paris bus lane
Quito Leeds
Bogota TransMilenio Brisbane
Rouen
1963
Curitiba
1974 1996 2000
2012 Approximately 135 systems world-wide
2005 Approximately 46 systems world-wide
Sao Paulo Goiania
Pittsburgh
1975
Tipping points: Bicycle sharing systems
Amsterdam White Bike
Copenhagen City Bike
Paris Veleb
1965
La Rochelle Yellow Bike
1974 1995 2005
Lyon Velo’v
2012 Approximately 420 systems world-wide
2009 Approximately 78 systems world-wide
Tipping the market
2000 Approximately 10 systems
2012 Approximately 135 systems world-wide
1. Early adopters
2. Seed funding support
3. Quality delivery
4. Communicating the results
5. Right place at the right time (luck) Inflection point
Future tipping point?: Greenways
Seoul
Guangzhou
During the time we are in this session…
36,000 cell phones were sold in the Asia-Pacific
During this session…
4,900 persons moved from a rural area to an urban area in the Asia-Pacific
During this session… 3,800 cars and motorcycles were
sold in the Asia-Pacifc
